Central banks are fearful and unwilling to normalize but artificially high valuations across asset classes cannot be sustained indefinitely absent fundamental global growth. Central banks are in a prison of their own design and we are trapped with them. The next great crash will occur when we collectively realize that the institutions that we trusted to remove risk are actually the source of it. The truth is that global central banks cannot remove extraordinary monetary accommodation without risking a complete collapse of the system, but the longer they wait the more they risk their own credibility, and the worse that inevitable collapse will be. In the Prisoner’s Dilemma, global central banks have set up the greatest volatility trade in history.
You’re doing yourself a disservice if you don't have a basic working knowledge of what, say, a volatility surface means. We're not saying that we all have to become volatility traders to survive in the market jungle today, any more than we all have to become game theorists to avoid being the sucker at the Fed’s communication policy table. And if you want to remove yourself as much as possible from the machines, then find a niche in the public markets where dark strategies have little sway. Muni bonds, say, or MLPs. The machines will find you eventually, but for now you’re safe. But if you’re a traditional investor whose sandbox includes big markets like the S&P 500, then you’re only disadvantaging yourself by ignoring this stuff. Ignorance is not bliss...
Brazil's economic recession is likely to be deeper and longer than Fitch's earlier expectations and its performance has diverged materially from those of its rating peers. Medium-term prospects also look weak compared to peers and most other large emerging markets. Fitch forecasts that Brazil's economy will contract by 3% and 1%, respectively in 2015 and 2016 before recording modest growth in 2017, with risks skewed largely to the downside.
“The trend in our projected net resources has continued to be negative," warns Treasury Secretary Lew forcing the administration to move up the deadline for the end of extraordinary measures from Nov 5th to Nov 3rd.
The “smart money” and by that we mean the more informed, aware and prudent investors and institutions internationally continue to have an allocation to gold and or add to existing allocations. The less informed continue to not understand or disparage gold and focus almost solely on gold’s short term price action rather than gold’s long term attributes as a hedging instrument and a safe haven asset.
The single most important “unknown unknown” today is any random event that may unexpectedly cause global central banks to withdraw their stated support of markets. Moral hazard has contributed to a significant build up in short and leveraged volatility creating a shadow ‘volatility gamma’ that reinforces the current trend in volatility direction. Rising volatility is followed by more rising volatility and vice versa. The pattern is creating a pro-cyclical monster of short volatility that, if left unchecked will contribute to a repeat of the May 2010 Flash Crash or 1987 Black Monday Crash. August 2015 was just an appetizer.
News That Matters
News That Matters
JPMorgan Misses Across The Board On Disappointing Earnings, Outlook; Stealthy Deleveraging ContinuesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2015 15:52 -0500
Maybe we now know why JPM decided to release results after market close instead of, as it always does, before the open: simply said, the results were lousy top to bottom, the company resorted to its old income-generating "gimmicks", it charged off far less in risk loans than many expected it would, and its outlook while hardly as bad as it was a quarter ago, was once again dour.
Now What: How Should One Trade In A World Where "Most Indicators Have Lost Their Informational Value"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/13/2015 12:37 -0500
A market which trades day to day on historic "whiplashes", record short squeezes, broken trendlines, and of course, $13 trillion in excess liquidity, got you shaking your head (and burning old Finance 101 textbooks)? Don't despair: here is Macquarie with a guide of how to trade in world where "most leading indicators have lost their informational value."
Global central banks have made a Faustian bargain with our economic soul selling our future for a false stability today. At this stage, absent continuous intervention, a large deflationary crash in the global economy is inevitable. The next Lehman brothers will be a country. The real ‘shadow convexity’ will not come from markets but political unrest or war. Peace is not the absence of conflict. Global Central Banks have set up the greatest long volatility trade in history. Buy the fear and you will be protected from the horror.
We think the market may have gotten ahead of itself, accepting the narrative that the Fed will raise rates as many other countries ease. We believe the market is gradually realizing that the Fed is far less flexible than it hoped it would be, thus causing a re-pricing of expectations. We don't think this will necessarily change the Fed's "desire" to pursue an exit. This re-pricing of expectations may have profound implications for the U.S. dollar, and with it, the price of gold.
With VIX collapsing 10 days straight (for the first time since October 2010), one might be forgiven for thinking "everything is awesome." However, as always, the real news is in the nuance that the mainstream often misses. As VIX has plunged (complacency about 'normal' risk), Skew (which measures extreme tail risk) has exploded to its highest ever...
No professional or successful investor every bought and held for the long-term without regard, or respect, for the risks that are undertaken. If the professionals are looking at "risk" and planning on how to protect their capital from losses when things go wrong - then why aren't you? Exactly how many warnings do you need?
For the past two weeks, the thinking probably went that if only the biggest short squeeze in history and the most "whiplashy" move since 2009 sends stocks high enough, the global economy will forget it is grinding toward recession with each passing day (and that the Fed are just looking for a 2-handle on the S&P and a 1-handle on the VIX before resuming with the rate hike rhetoric). Unfortunately, that's not how it worked out, and overnight we got abysmal economic data first from China, whose imports imploded, then the UK, which posted its first deflation CPI print since April, and finally from Germany, where the ZEW expectation surve tumbled from 12.1 to barely positive, printing at just 1.9 far below the 6.5 expected.