"Without movement here, the market is looking increasingly binary, with momentum building again in the ‘disinflation’ camp the longer we stay ‘stuck’ in status quo, ESPECIALLY into the back-half of the year, with the Fed again hiking and the ECB transitioning towards ‘tightening’ as well."
“Equity market participants have taken a look at the lower yields and weaker dollar and decided that since absurdly low rates are the elixir that the equity bull market lives on, they might as ‘buy the dip’ yet again” Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale wrote.
Currently, valuation measures are clearly warning the future market returns are going to be substantially lower than they have been over the past eight years. Therefore,if you are expecting the markets to crank out 10% annualized returns over the next 10 years for you to meet your retirement goals, it is likely that you are going to be very disappointed.
Judgment Time … Options Include: 1) get bearish S&P for a trade; 2) don’t fight the primary trend -- this is a melt-up, and there are good (macro) reasons behind it; 3) simplify the portfolio; wait for better location to re-load length.
UK in the spotlight this week as Article 50 set to be triggered. Is this priced in to GBP? We’ll find out. The USD may start to find some support as key levels (against its major counterparts) near. Japanese year end on the Friday.
Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.
Is China on the verge of a "tipping point" or as Deutsche Bank puts it, on the edge of an "uncontrollable liquidity event"? For the answer and much more, here is everything you always wanted to know about the current precarious state of China's financial system.
"This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest."
"The problem with everyone leaning in one direction is that they scare easily. When realized volatility has been near all-time lows, trading strategies view assets as less risky, so they lever them up. What the models fail to capture is the speed with which volatility can return."
"It is the inverse of Keynes, where there is no consideration at all except for the long run and how some unknowable magic combination of policies will surely make it such a happy and prosperous place – even though none so far have come close."
"The fact this bill, which the President has said flat-out he will make it work for all Americans in general, can't pass is an indication this agenda is going to be more ambitious than this Congress can work with.... It is an indication that investors should not expect the kind of velocity in terms of agenda accomplishments they were expecting when he was elected."