Wall Street Journal

Preview of tomorrow's Bernanke testimony and FOMC minutes.

• IMF Tells Central Europe to Spend More (WSJ)
• Tornadoes Blast Oklahoma (WSJ)
• Frenetic search for survivors as 91 feared dead in tornado-hit Oklahoma (Reuters)
• JPMorgan investors on edge over vote on Dimon; what if they win? (Reuters)
• Wealthy bank depositors to suffer losses in EU law (Reuters)
• Yen Slips as Amari Backtracks (BBG)
• Japan Ready for More Yen Weakness Despite Recent Comments (WSJ)
• IRS officials back on Capitol Hill hot seat over targeting (Reuters)
• Li Keqiang pledges China boost to India trade (FT)
• Europe's Recession Sparks Grass-Roots Political Push (WSJ)
• Obama and Xi to meet in effort to calm growing US-China rivalry (FT)
• Berlin plans to streamline EU but avoid wholesale treaty change (FT)
• France must reform or face punitive measures - EU's Oettinger (Reuters)

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress will be important in setting the tone for the markets (particularly the dollar, equities and US treasuries), as traders hunt for clues on when the Fed is likely to ease its rate of asset purchases.

• Obama's Counsel Was Told of IRS Audit Findings Weeks Ago (WSJ)
• North Korea fires sixth missile in three days (Reuters)
• Enron No Lesson to Traders as EU Probes Oil-Price Manipulation (BBG)
• Don't cry for me, Eurozone: Thinking the Unthinkable - Quitting a Currency (WSJ)
• H-1B Models Strut Into U.S. as Programmers Pray for Help (BBG)
• Gold Bear Bets Reach Record as Soros Cuts Holdings (BBG)
• Yahoo has agreed to pay $1.1 billion for Tumblr (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Holders Led by Chairmen-CEOs to Vote on Dimon (BBG)
• Apple faces grilling over US tax rate (FT)
• Nissan to Sell First Joint Minicar to Expand in Japan Market (BBG)
• Fierce battle for corporate loans sparks US bank risk concerns (FT)
• Microsoft Updates Xbox as Apple to Facebook Gain in Games (BBG)

It has been a tough weekend for the President. First, the CEO of the Associated Press states the government's seizure of AP phone records was "so broad and so secret," among other factors, "that it was an unconstitutional act," adding that it had already had a chilling effect on newsgathering and press freedom. Add to that James Goodale's comments (the leading force behind the release of the Pentagon Papers and first amendment lawyer), that President Obama is "worse for press freedom than Nixon" and things are not going well. But, the problems did not stop there as the Wall Street Journal reports that while President Obama claims not to have been made aware of the IRS indiscretions until May 10th it seems the White House's chief lawyer learned weeks ago that an audit of the IRS likely would show that agency employees inappropriately targeted conservative groups. The President's response so far is that "we’re not going to participate in is a partisan fishing expedition."

Amid the sound and fury of yesterday's IRS hearing were a few small tidbits which raise significant questions about who knew what and when within the Obama administration. While getting the answer (the real honest truth) is highly unlikely, as the Wall Street Journal notes, the IRS's watchdog told top Treasury officials around June 2012 (when Republican lawmakers were complaining publicly about alleged IRS targeting of tea-party groups) he was investigating allegations the tax agency had targeted conservative groups, for the first time indicating that Obama administration officials were aware of the explosive matter in the midst of the president's re-election campaign. The revelation nonetheless raised a fresh set of questions about who was aware of the problem within the Obama administration. However, the hearing left numerous other fundamental questions unanswered, including who ordered the targeting and why it continued so long, pointing to a protracted investigation ahead as Rep. Paul Ryan exclaimed, "how can we not conclude that you misled this committee?" As Doug Ross' full timeline below suggests, this is fascism on the part of the IRS and White House...

70% of graduates had at least some debt according to the latest poll from Fidelity Investments but as the Wall Street Journal reports the average student-loan debt for a borrower who received a bachelor's degree in 2013 is $30,000 - an all-time record. With $986 billion of outstanding student loan debt (up 50% from Q1 2009) and unemployment rates running at or near all-time highs for the 16-24 year old cohort in this nation, it is little surprise that delinquencies are surging. The unemployment rate among graduates is 7.1% (which is considerably worse than it looks given that many are stuck in low-paid jobs) but it is those who don't complete college that face the greatest burden - the median annual income of a non-completer was $25,000 (compared to $33,900 for a degree holder), less than the average student loan debt. As the WSJ notes though, the 2013 class is unlikely to hold the 'most indebted class ever' title for long as 2014 enrollments and tuition costs look set to continue the 20 year trend...

Read 'Em and Weep

On one hand we have bad Hilsenrath sending mixed messages saying the Fed may taper sooner (with good Hilsenrath chiming in days later, adding it may be later after all), depending on whether HY bonds hit 4% YTM by EOD or mid next week at the latest. On the other, even resolute Fed doves are whispering that a tapering may occur as soon the summer, so in a few months, and halt QE by year end. Bottom line - confusion. So who better to arbitrate than the firm that runs it all, Goldman Sachs, and its chief economist Jan Hatzius, who issues the following Q&A on "tapering." His view: "not yet." Then again, Goldman is the consummate (ab)user of dodecatuple reverse psychology, so if Goldman says "all clear" the natural response should be just as clear.

For the third year in a row (since the crisis) average pay at private companies in China surge by greater than double digits - far outstripping GDP growth. 2012 saw a 17.1% nominal rise in average wages for private companies to Yuan 28,752 per annum (still 9% after inflation) but dispersion remains high with "significant gap among regions, industries and specific jobs in some sectors." The continued rise in wages, as the Wall Street Journal notes, is likely to put further pressure on an already pinched manufacturing and construction sector (which accounts for over 41% of all Chinese employment) especially in low-end and labor-intensive positions. With slowing growth (demand) and rising costs (labor, energy), the profitability of Chinese companies is increasingly tenuous and only hindered by potential actions of the central bank.

• Mine union threatens to bring South Africa to 'standstill' (Reuters)
• Russia Raises Stakes in Syria (WSJ) - as reported here yesterday 
• Japan buys into US shale gas boom (FT)
• Bill Gates Retakes World’s Richest Title From Carlos Slim (BBG) - so he can afford a Tesla now?
• China Wages Rose Sharply in 2012 (WSJ)
• Regulators Target Exchanges As They Ready Record Fine (WSJ)
• Citi Takes Some Traders Off Bloomberg Chat Tool (WSJ)
• After Google, Amazon to be grilled on UK tax presence (Reuters)
• Apple CEO Cook to Propose Tax Reform for Offshore Cash (BBG)
• French, German politicians to pressure Google on tax (Reuters)
• Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush (BBG)
• A stretched Samsung chases rival Apple's suppliers (Reuters)

• As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
• Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
• Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
• Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
• Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
• Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
• Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
• Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
• James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)

• Once a beacon, Obama under fire over civil liberties (Reuters)
• Eurozone in longest recession since birth of currency bloc (FT)
• EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing Window (BBG)
• BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble (BBG)
• Stock Boom Isn't a Bubble, Says BOJ's Kuroda (WSJ)
• Struggling France strives to shake off economic gloom (FT)
• JPMorgan investors take heat off Dimon (FT)
• Private-Equity Firms Build Instead of Buy (WSJ)
• Bloomberg Saga Highlights Clash Between Two Worlds (WSJ)
• Bank documents portray Cyprus as Russia's favorite haven (Reuters)
• HSBC Signals 14,000 Jobs Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan (BBG)
• Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency (BBG)

Why There Is So Much Pro-War Reporting

• Controversies give Obama new governing headaches (Reuters)
• About that Capex... BHP to Rein In Investment, Chief Says (WSJ), considers returning cash to shareholders (FT)
• Bloomberg users’ messages leaked online (FT)
• Japanese mayor sparks China outrage with sex-slave remarks (Reuters)
• Economists Cut China Forecasts (WSJ)
• U.S. oil boom leaves OPEC sidelined from demand growth (Reuters)
• U.S. banks push back on change in loan loss accounting (Reuters)
• Fed’s Plosser Says Slowing Inflation No Concern for Policy (BBG)
• Watchdog probes 1m US swap contracts (FT)
• Used Gold Supply Heads for ’08 Low as Sellers Balk (BBG)
• Ex-BlackRock Manager Said to Be Arrested in U.K. Probe (BBG)