Wall of Worry

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

The latest credit investor survey by Bank of America shows a marked change in the Wall of Worry: "Quantitative Failure" by central banks has emerged as investors’ top concern (23%), up materially from June’s reading (6%). Investors say that a backdrop of the ECB ending QE next year, while inflation remains sub-par, "has the potential to rattle the market’s confidence."

Even Schwab Is Warning Retail Clients Of "Danger Signs Rising"

"A solid earnings season should contribute to a continuation of the bull market in stocks. Dangers are lurking, however, and the possibility of a decent-sized pullback has grown over the past couple of months, in light of monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainties. "

No More "Cash On The Sidelines": Private Client Cash Levels Drop To Record Low

According to the latest BofA flow show report, private client cash - i.e., high net worth individuals who still allocate capital to single-stocks and ETFs on a discretionary basis - is now at a record low, taking out the cash levels observed in the period just prior to the last market peak in 2007.

The Blow-Off Top Is Here: Second Largest Weekly Inflows To Wall Street In History

For confirmation that the market is now in its "blow off top" phase, look no further than the latest BofA "flow show" in which Michael Hartnett reports that capital markets just saw their biggest week of equity inflows since the US election ($24.6bn), another chunky inflow to bonds ($9.0bn), which combines to "the second largest week of inflows to Wall Street ever (largest was $35.5bn in Dec'2014)."

As Stocks Sink, This Is What RBC Is Looking For

"...reticence from the buyside to take-down ‘net length’ is beginning to sting as recent ‘hiding-places’ are now dragging and generally very ‘high beta’ long portfolios (crowded ‘market’ factor) means increasingly painful drawdowns."

Weekend Reading: Markets May Be Getting Expensive

"This leaves markets with the “hope” trade in peril as Congress continues to trip itself up in moving its legislative agenda forward while, at the same time, the Fed has accelerated the pace of monetary tightening and sending clear warnings to the markets...This has “bad” written all over it."

Investors' Leverage Hits An All-Time High

"...on a quarterly basis, the market is currently more overbought than at just about any other point in history... Combined with record levels of margin debt, the current conditions HAVE NEVER lasted indefinitely. "

Credit Suisse "Climbs The Wall Of Worry", Raises S&P Target To 2,500 From 2,350

"Following the reaching of our mid-year S&P 500 target, we raise both our mid-year and year-end S&P targets to 2,400 and 2,500, respectively (from 2,350 and 2,300). We continue to see a clear-cut risk that we get an overshoot to the upside in equities that then reverses later on; more realistically, this reversal is likely to be a very late-2017 or 2018 event." - Credit Suisse

Risk-Ignorance Reaches 23 Year High As Short Interest Hits Record Low

Investors are willing to pay more for a given level of risk than at any time since 1994 and short interest has collapsed to record lows... "if The Fed follows through on its convictions, look for a flat yield curve and a recession to wipe out 50% of equity prices for the third time in the past seventeen years."