Wall of Worry

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When Scary Headlines Don't Scare - Climbing The Wall Of Complacency





The U.S. economy is growing at a painfully slow pace. Greece still threatens the euro. Chinese stocks have just pulled out of a frightening free-fall. Big companies in the U.S. are struggling to boost profits. You might think it's been a rough year for investors, but it's mostly been a smooth ride - and a profitable one. "Things have worked out," scoffs one analyst "and that has emboldened investors." Maybe too much...

 
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The Wall Of Worry





Greece... just another brick in the wall...

 
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The One Lesson To Learn Before A Market Crash





Greece is saved!!! I mean BANKERS are saved!!! The market will celebrate the total capitulation of Greece to the EU bankers. Nothing has been resolved. The debt won’t be repaid. The can has been kicked again. Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland and even France are essentially insolvent. It’s all a ponzi scheme. The bankers win and the people lose. Hope is not a strategy. Hussman’s weekly tome shows how a crisis plays out. Bad shit happens and the powers that be react with bad solutions that keep their wealth and power protected. Their bad solutions lead to a worse crisis. More bad solutions. And so on, until complete collapse.

 
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The "Smartest Money" Is Liquidating Stocks At A Record Pace: "Selling Everything That’s Not Bolted Down"





Buyout firms conducted 97 stock offerings in the second quarter, more than in any other three-month period. "It’s clear that we are currently in an environment of frothy valuations,” said Lise Buyer, founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group. Her disturbing punchline: "The insiders - those with the most knowledge - are finding this a very good time to take some money off the table." In an echo of Leon Black, Frank Maturo, vice chairman of equity capital markets at UBS AG, said, “Private equity is selling everything that’s not bolted down."

 
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The Only Question That Matters In Today's Markets





There’s only one question that matters today in markets: why is the government bond market going up and down like a yo-yo? How is it possible that the deepest and most important securities in the world are currently displaying all the trading stability of a biotech stock?

 
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Stockman: "The Bottom's Not In", Why This Market Is Dumber Than A Mule





"This market is dumber than a mule, and the nation’s central bank and its counterparts around the world have made it so."

 
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Market Top's In? Why Buy-The-Dippers Can't Get It Up





Currently, a new form of danger arises. The Keynesian pettifoggers at the Fed have painted themselves into an epochal corner. After 78 months of ZIRP they have no idea about how and why they got here; and now, mired deep in the lunacy of free money, they are clueless about where they are going next. There is not a chance the US economy has decoupled from the rest of the world. The great credit-driven boom was universal and fueled by out of control central banks. Now comes the bust phase, and these same money printing central bankers have no clue what to do about it.

 
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Peak Bull





So much for that wall of worry...

 
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5 Charts For Fully Invested Bears





Remaining fully invested in the financial markets without a thorough understanding of your "risk exposure" will likely not have the desirable end result you have been promised. All five of the charts below have linkages to each other, and when one goes, they will all go. So pay attention to the details.

 
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Seven Reasons To Be Fearful





Hope springs eternal that 2015 is the year that the US economy stretches its escape velocity growth as consensus growth expectations at 2.9% are still at their highest since 2005 (although world GDP expectations are falling rapidly). However, as Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone explains, with 5 of the Top 10 economies in the world in or near recession, the wall of worry can be constructed as follows...

 
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"We're Going To Need A Bigger Chart"-Of-The-Day: Bullish Sentiment Edition





What "wall of worry"? Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Sentiment Indicator has reached 11 on the Spinal Tap amplifier of euphoric positioning...

 
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What Wall Of Worry? 2014 Was The Least 'Bearish' For Investors Ever





Investors have never - ever - been less bearish about the stock market than they are in 2014...

 
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2015 - What Does Cycle Analysis Suggest?





Will 2015 be the seventh (7th) consecutive year of the current bull market cycle? It is possible. But with 100% of all analysts and economists betting on that outcome, it is quite possible that something else will happen.

 
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2014 Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris





Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

 
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Have The S&P And Dow Seen Their Highs For The Year?





Have the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average seen their highs for the year?  At this point in 2014, it’s probably a coin toss.  There are several factors in favor of a further rally, to be sure.  Corporate profits are still robust, revenue expectations are modest, and long term interest rates remain equity-friendly.  On the flip side of the U.S. equity market coin: long term valuations are toppy, plenty of other markets (commodities, bonds) seem to signal an impending global recession, and a host of geopolitical concerns now seem to be hitting a full boil. Also, let’s not forget that the Russell 2000 peaked in, oh, March (1209) and July (1208) and is down 8.8% from that last high. By that measure, equities are already rolling over. It is true that markets climb a wall of worry. Until it falls on them.

 
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