Warsh

The Trump 'Eclipse Bottom'

"Trump seems to be sticking his foot in his mouth a lot less often these days... And with the recent debt ceiling deal with the Democrats, you could almost say he is acting Presidential... I think Trump staring at the Solar eclipse was the bottom for his Presidency."

White House Denies Cohn Report, Says Considering "At Least Six" For Fed Chair

Denying yesterday's WSJ report that Trump has "fired" Gary Cohn from his future role as Fed chair due to his strong opposition to Trump's handling of the Charlotteville tragedy, Bloomberg reports that the White House is considering "at least a half-dozen candidates to be the next head of the Federal Reserve, including economists, executives with banking experience and other business people"

Cohn "Fed Chair" Odds Plunge In Prediction Markets

If tax reform looks stalled, and we should find out in the next few weeks, is there any reason for Gary Cohn to stick around if he concludes he won’t be appointed Fed Chair?  We wonder... and how will markets react?

Full Jackson Hole Agenda Released

As expected both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi are speaking, at 10am and 3pm local ET respectively. What is strange is that while Yellen has only 30 minutes dedicated for her opening remarks, Draghi's luncheon address is a full hour long.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? - Why This Time Is Not Different

In the 1990s, stocks continued to rise relentlessly for years, even after then Fed Chair Greenspan warned of irrational exuberance in late 1996.  Last decade, the rally in home prices continued as ever more people appeared convinced that home prices never fall.  This time around, we are eight years into a bull market. As in those times, investors have all but given up betting against conventional wisdom...but this time is not different...