Warsh

Tyler Durden's picture

Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up"





"My fear is that central banks are now taking this too far through negative interest rates in particular and that they’re going to literally destroy their own banking systems. If they’re actually successful in generating higher inflation, then they’re going to destroy their own bond markets... our government officials, and I will include the Federal Reserve in that, have failed the American people."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How QE Crushes The Real Economy & Why The Secular Low In Treasury Yields Lies Ahead





The economy was supposed to fire on all cylinders in 2015. Sufficient time had passed for the often-mentioned lags in monetary and fiscal policy to finally work their way through the system according to many pundits inside and outside the Fed. Surely the economy would be kick-started by: three rounds of QE and forward guidance; a record Fed balance sheet; and an unprecedented increase in federal debt to $18.63 trillion in 2015, a jump of 86%. Further, stock prices had gained sufficiently over the past several years, thus the so-called wealth effect would boost consumer spending. But the economic facts of 2015 displayed no impact from these massive government experiments.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Irreversibly Broken & Dysfunctional" - There's Something Wrong In The Markets





Today’s dilemma – for financial markets and central bankers – is that pushing back against nascent “risk off” unleashes another forceful bout of “risk on.” At this point, it’s either Bubble on or off – destabilizing either way. The global Bubble has grown too distended and the market backdrop too dysfunctional. Central bankers over the past 25 years have created excessive “money,” while incentivizing too much finance into financial speculation. There is now way too much “money” crowded into the securities and derivative markets, and the upshot is an increasingly hostile backdrop for leverage and speculation.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Mocks "Constitutionally Dovish" Fed, Sees December Rate Hike Odds At 60% To Offset "Credibility Problem"





Q: Why do you still expect the FOMC to hike rates in December?

A: Because the FOMC leadership has said that a rate hike by the end of the year is likely if the economy and markets evolve broadly as expected. Our near-term forecast is similar to theirs, so our baseline is also that they hike.

 
Eric Parnell's picture

WWJD?





China stocks have fallen by as much as -30% over the past three weeks.  What would Janet Yellen do if the S&P 500 Index was falling by -30% in similarly short order?

 
octafinance's picture

Stanley Druckenmiller Bullish Chinese Equities And Oil And Doesn’t Expect Rate Cut Anytime Soon





Stanley Druckenmiller, the man who achieved the impossible 30%+ annualized returns during more than 30-years period active trading career just gave an interview and shared his market views.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Stan Druckenmiller's "Horrific Sense" Of Deja Vu: "I Know It's Tempting To Invest, But This Will End Very Badly"





“I just have the same horrific sense I had" before, Druckenmiller said to an audience at the Lost Tree Club in North Palm Beach, Florida (according to a transcript obtained by Bloomberg). "Our monetary policy is so much more reckless and so much more aggressively pushing the people in this room and everybody else out the risk curve that we’re doubling down on the same policy that really put us there."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Turmoiling Markets This Morning





Following yesterday's proof-positive that "everything is awesome," today (and overnight) we find, everything is not so awesome. Following the unleashing of The Warsh on CNBC, markets are starting to turmoil. Crude has erased all its late-day ramp and then some dropping back to a low $47 handle. German Bund yields just hit a new record low (2Y at -25.7bps!). US equity markets have erased all of yesterday's post-open gains, and US Treasury yields are dumping as the Euro surges...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Former Fed Governor Admits Market Controlling The Fed Is A "Very Dangerous Development"





The constant changes to Fed policy targets and enslavement to the ticker must change, according to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. "The markets think they have Yellen's number," that she will never allow markets to go down, Warsh warns "that is a very dangerous development." What worries Warsh the most, however, is "The Fed's policies changing based on what happens on the ticker... The Fed should be thinking 3 to 4 years ahead." Investors "think good times can last forever," he notes ominously, "we tried negative real rates in the mid 70s and the early 2000s and both ended badly." Someone is not getting invited back on CNBC...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2014 Year In Review (Part 2): Will 2015 Be The Year It All Comes Tumbling Down?





Despite the authorities' best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as topping out."

"I’m tired of being outraged!"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What The Fed Does Next





In 2008, various liquidity facilities, designed by the Fed, unclogged broken capital markets and helped avert economic and financial disaster. The Fed’s (subsequent) QE and ZIRP policies have enabled fiscal stalemate, turbo-charged wealth inequality, and arguably led to financial asset bubbles. For these reasons, we believe they have become counter-productive. New tactics, should they be needed, would therefore be welcomed. The Fed claims it will turn to “macro-prudential” polices, but as Kevin Warch told The IMF, "macro-prudential policies are vital, but we have no idea what they are." We have a theory for what the Fed does next... and holders of capital (who have been so richly rewarded) will be badly hurt.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Former Governor Warsh Slams Fed's "Reverse Robin Hood" Policies





Isn't it odd that when 'officials' are no longer part of the status-quo-sustainers, how the truthiness flows... As former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh explained this morning, "on the fairness point - if you have access to credit, if you've got a big balance sheet, the Fed has made you richer," concluding rather too honestly for some people's liking, "I would say [Fed policy] has been in some sense Reverse Robin Hood." The bottom line, he chides, "this is a way to make the well to do more well to do because that's all the Federal Reserve can do."

 
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