• EconMatters
    11/24/2015 - 14:25
    Focus on policies promoting economic growth, lower taxes, and spending tax receipts more efficiently and not on one`s sexual orientation in the bedroom.

Wen Jiabao

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 7

  • Bersani's lead over Berlusconi continues to erode, now just 3.6 Pts, or inside error margin, in Tecne Poll
  • Spain gears up for U.S. debt investor meetings (Reuters)
  • PBOC Set for Record Weekly Liquidity Injection (WSJ)
  • RBS Trader Helped UBS’s Hayes With Libor Bribes, Regulators Say (BBG)
  • ECB, Ireland reach bank debt deal (Reuters)
  • AMR-US Airways Near Merger Agreement (WSJ)
  • Monte Paschi says no more derivatives losses (Reuters) ... remember this
  • Harvard’s Gopinath Helps France Beat Euro Straitjacket (BBG) - by sliding into recession?
  • Obama Relents on Secret Drone Memo (WSJ)
  • Brennan to face questions on interrogations, drones and leaks (Reuters)
  • Wall Street Success With Germans Boomerangs (BBG)
  • Khamenei rebuffs U.S. offer of direct talks (Reuters)
  • Boeing Preps Redesign to Get 787 Flying  (WSJ)
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: February 1

  • 'London Whale' Sounded an Alarm on Risky Bets (WSJ)
  • Deadly Blast Strikes U.S. Embassy in Turkey (WSJ)
  • Abe Shortens List for BOJ Chief as Japan Faces Monetary Overhaul (BBG)
  • Endowment Returns Fail to Keep Pace with College Spending (BBG) - More student loans
  • Mexico rescue workers search for survivors after Pemex blast kills 25 (Reuters)
  • Lingering Bad Debts Stifle Europe Recovery (WSJ)
  • Peregrine Founder Hit With 50 Years (WSJ) - there is hope Corzine will get pardoned yet
  • Deutsche Bank to Limit Immediate Bonuses to 300,000 Euros
  • France's Hollande to visit Mali Saturday (Reuters)
  • France, Africa face tough Sahara phase of Mali war (Reuters)
  • Barclays CEO refuses bonus (Barclays)
  • Edward Koch, Brash New York Mayor During 1980s Boom, Dies at 88 (BBG)
  • Samsung Doubles Tablet PC Market Share Amid Apple’s Lead (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Even Goldman Says China Is Cooking The Books

That China openly manipulates its economic data, especially around key political phase shifts, such as one communist regime taking over for another, is no secret. That China is also the marginal economic power (creating trillions in new loans and deposits each year) in a stagflating world, and as such must be represented by the media as growing at key inflection points (such as Q4 when Europe officially entered a double dip recession, and the US will report its first sub 1% GDP in years) as mysteriously reporting growth even without open monetary stimulus (something we have said the PBOC will not engage in due to fears of importing US, European and now Japanese inflation) is critical for preserving hope and faith in the future of the stock market, is also very well known. Which is why recent market optimism driven by "hope" from Alcoa that China is recovering and will avoid yet another hard landing, and Chinese reports of a surge in Exports last week, are very much suspect. But no longer is it just the blogosphere that is openly taking Chinese data to task - as Bloomberg reports, even the major banks: Goldman, UBS and ANZ - are now openly questioning the validity and credibility of the goalseek function resulting from C:\China\central_planning\economic_model.xls.

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 10

  • Obama Picking Lew for Treasury Fuels Fight on Budget (BBG)
  • Deutsche Bank Bank Made Huge Bet, and Profit, on Libor (WSJ)
  • Spain Beats Maximum Target in First 2013 Debt Sale (BBG) - In other news, the social security fund is now running on negative?
  • "Icahn is also believed to have taken a long position in Herbalife" (NYPost) - HLF +5% premarket
  • Lew-for-Geithner Switch Closes Era of Tight Fed-Treasury Ties (BBG)
  • Turkey Beating Norway as Biggest Regional Oil Driller (BBG)
  • Greek State Firms are Facing Closure (WSJ)
  • Draghi Spared as Confidence Swing Quells Rate-Cut Talk (BBG)
  • China’s Yuan Loans Trail Estimates (BBG)
  • SEC enforcement chief steps down (WSJ)
  • CFPB releases new mortgage rules in bid to reduce risky lending (WaPo)
  • Japan Bond Investors Expect Extra Sales From February (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Meet The 'Jim Cramer' Of China

26-year-old Hu Bin is China's most popular online market commentator - just four years after starting his blog. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek notes, his success started when Premier Wen Jiabao announced a 4 trillion renminbi rescue plan and as 'Commander in Chief of the Stock Market Army' Hu says "I knew I just needed to be clever and use this chance of high liquidity in the market to make myself famous." The brash, eccentric, and outspoken blogger is among the Top 10 most influential people on the Chinese stock market (though under his alias 'Yerongtian' - though preferring the nickname 'Batman') and notes that "any eccentric behavior would attract people's attention. If you understood this vital point, you could control  people's minds." Hu says he is not a financial rabble-rouser adding that "the stock market in the US is managed by regulations; the Chinese market is managed by humans. The 72 million 'retail' Chinese investors aren't as mature as American investors, and I write to meet their immediate needs." While recognizing the irresistible pull of stocks, he understands he's giving advice to people he knows probably shouldn’t be in the market but are going to invest anyway.  What's Chinese for BooYaa?

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 20

  • IMF Demands Partial Default for Cyprus (Spiegel)
  • Boehner's 'Plan B' Gets Pushback (WSJ)
  • Beijing criticises US ‘political checks’ (FT)
  • White House Said to Tell Business Groups Talks Stall (BBG)
  • NYSE tries to get hitched again: IntercontinentalExchange in talks to buy NYSE (Reuters) -> N-Ice coming?
  • Greece faces ‘make or break’ year (FT)
  • Fed rejects idea of consensus forecasts, "maybe forever": Fisher (Reuters)
  • Rajoy Drives Spanish Revolution With Low-Cost Manufacture (BBG)
  • Italian Senate Set for Budget Vote Before Monti Resigns (BBG)
  • BOJ Loosens With Pledge to Review Inflation Objectives (BBG)
  • Bowing To Abe, BOJ To Review Price Goal (WSJ)
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: December 6

  • MSM discovers window dressing: Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees (WSJ)
  • White House Unyielding on Debt Limit (WSJ)
  • Obama, Boehner talk; Geithner prepared to go off "cliff" (Reuters)
  • Republicans urged to resist tax rises (FT)
  • China looms large over Japanese poll (FT)
  • As predicted here two months ago, Greek Bond Buyback Leads S&P to Cut to Selective Default (BBG)
  • Japan opposition LDP set to win solid election majority – polls (BBG), but...
  • Japan Opposition LDP’s Main Ally Cautions Abe on BOJ Pressure (BBG)
  • U.S. and Europe Tackle Russia Trade (WSJ)
  • King Seen Maintaining QE as Osborne Extends Fiscal Squeeze (BBG)
  • Syria pound fall suggests currency crisis (FT)
  • Irish budget seeks extra €3.5bn (FT)
  • U.K. Extends Cuts Due to Poor Outlook (WSJ)
  • ECB Seen Refraining From Rate Cuts as Yields Sink on Bond Plan (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 29

  • As this has been priced in since September 13, it should come as no surprise to anyone: Fed Stimulus Likely in 2013 (Hilsenrath)
  • Bowles Says Fiscal Cliff Deal Unlikely by End of Year (Bloomberg)
  • Argentina debt repayment order frozen (FT)
  • Obama Is Flexible on Highest Tax Rates (WSJ)... not really
  • Geithner deployed for fiscal cliff talks (FT)
  • Audit firms Deloitte and KPMG sued in HP's Autonomy acquisition (Reuters)
  • Euro-Zone Budget Proposal Is Unveiled (WSJ)
  • EU Nations Clash on Thresholds for Direct ECB Oversight (Bloomberg)
  • LDP leader Abe: BOJ must ease until inflation hits 3 percent (Reuters)
  • SNB’s Jordan Says High Swiss Franc Burdens Many Companies (Bloomberg)
  • EU to launch free trade negotiations with Japan: EU officials (Reuters)
Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Goldilocks GDP: Q3 Economy Goalseeked Just As Expected At 7.4%

Chinese economic data has in general been surprising to the downside in recent weeks - in opposition to the positive (seasonally adjusted awesomeness) of US data. However, for tonight's entertainment we have GDP at 7.4% YoY - perfectly in line with expectations (but the 7th consecutive quarter of slowing growth), Industrial Production beat modestly, Retail Sales beat handsomely (biggest beat in 18 months), and FAI beat...


So, no new stimulus coming anytime soon - leaving Bernanke and Draghi all alone (and the latter is stuck waiting for Rajoy to say 'Si'). AUD lurched violently up and down; US equity futures are unmoved; and Treasury yields rose perhaps 1bps.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Three Toughest Questions For China Bulls

Whether you believe China is an economic miracle - or a government-sponsored fraud; and can ignore the broken growth model or believe that the CCP can bailout the world; Michael Pettis, of China Financial Markets, provides a much-needed dose of reality for bulls and bears when it comes to the future of the global growth engine. After summing up (and laying-waste to) the three mainstays of China bulls' arguments: he asks the three toughest questions any China bull must be able to answer. Analogizing China's position perfectly he cites Mills: "Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works." Simply put, the bull argument cannot ignore the hidden bad debt.

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 21

  • Europe’s crisis will be followed by a more devastating one, likely beginning in Japan. (Simon Johnson)
  • Porsche, Daimler Indicate Europe’s Car Crisis Spreading (Bloomberg)
  • No progress in Catalonia-Madrid talks (FT)
  • Hilsenrath speaks: Fed's Kocherlakota Shifts on Unemployment (WSJ) - luckily QEternity made both obsolete
  • Lenders Reportedly Consider New Greek Haircut (Spiegel)
  • Fed Officials Highlight Benefits of Bond-Buying (WSJ)
  • ESM to Launch without Leverage Vehicle Options (WSJ)
  • Japanese companies report China delays (FT)
  • Borg Says Swedish Taxes Can’t Go Into Ill-Managed European Banks (Bloomberg)
  • Greek Leaders Struggle With Spending Reductions (Bloomberg)
  • Asian Stocks Rise as iPhone 5 Debut Boosts Tech Shares (Bloomberg)
  • China government's hand seen in anti-Japan protests (LA Times)
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 3

  • Germans write off Greece, says poll (FT) - Only a quarter of Germans think Greece should stay in the eurozone
  • As predicted here two months ago: ECB chief and Spanish PM on collision course (FT)
  • Gold Wagers Jump To 5-Month High As Fed Spurs Rally (Bloomberg)
  • Euro zone factories faltering as core crumbles (Reuters)
  • Those who expected more China easing, beware: PBOC Has No Short Term Intention for Loose Money Policy (Financial Market News)
  • French jobless tops three million, minister says (AFP)
  • Spain Leads Europe’s $25 Billion Gamble Before ECB (Bloomberg)
  • US investor is Ireland’s biggest creditor (FT)
  • Draghi May See Silver Lining In Disappointing Investors (Bloomberg)
  • China's steel traders expose banks' bad debts (Reuters)
  • NY probes private equity tax strategy  (FT)
Tyler Durden's picture

The "China Bails Out Europe" Rumor Is Back

It's been a while since the ridiculous "China bails out Europe" rumor made the scene: in fact, the last time we can find with definitive confirmation was back in September of 2011, just before the bottom fell out of Europe, and when the FT, based on "anonymous sources" tripped over itself to report that "[insert European country] is in talks with China to buy bonds, assets." Sure enough, now that Merkel came, and saw, but hardly conquered Beijing, it is the turn of China's Wen Jiabao to add his 10 pips to the EURUSD rumormill: Reuters reports: "China is prepared to buy more EU government bonds amid a worsening European debt crisis that is dragging on the world economy, Premier Wen Jiabao said, in the strongest sign of support for its biggest trading partner in months." Naturally, considering how often this rumor (re)appeared in the past it will be excusable if nobody but the dumbest vacuum tubes fall for it this time, especially considering that the Chinese economy itself is going down in flames faster than the October Iron Ore contract. And lest there be any confusion, China's commitment is about as definitive as a Best Buy LBO "preunderwritten" with a Jefferies highly confident letter: "China is willing, on condition of fully evaluating the risks, to continue to invest in the euro zone sovereign debt market, and strengthen communication and discussion with the European Union, the European Central Bank the IMF and other key countries to support the indebted euro zone countries in overcoming hardships," [Wen] said after meeting Merkel." Ah, conditional aid. The kind that gets Mario Monti to break out the petulant ex-Goldman child act and refuse to leave the Belgian catered dining room until the beggees succumb to his technocratic platitudes. Needless to say, we'll believe China's "continued" investment in Europe when we see it.

Tyler Durden's picture

China Stocks Drop To Fresh Post-2009 Lows Following Plunge In Industrial Company Profits

Today the Chinese stock market did something unthinkable: it plunged to fresh post 2009 lows on news so bad they would have been enough to send the stock markets of such "developed" bizarro economies as the US and Europe limit up. The catalyst, as Bloomberg reports, was that Chinese industrial companies’ profits fell in July by the most this year, a government report showed today, adding to evidence the nation’s economic slowdown is deepening. Income dropped 5.4 percent last month from a year earlier to 366.8 billion yuan ($57.7 billion), the fourth straight decline, National Bureau of Statistics data today showed. That compares with a 1.7 percent slide in June and a 5.3 percent drop in May. What is disturbing is that the slide persisted even as revenue in the first seven months increased 10.6 percent to 50 trillion yuan, today’s report showed. Which means that cost and wage pressures are starting to truly bite Chinese corporations, that the US ability to export inflation to China is much more limited, and that one can forget the PBOC easing monetary conditions any time soon for many of the reasons discussed in the past week. It also means that China is now stuck hoping that Wen Jiabao will at least implement some fiscal stimulus. The reality however, judging by the SHCOMP's reaction, is that the benefit from fiscal programs in China, and everywhere else, is far more limited than monetary policy intervention. End result: SHCOMP down 1.74%,to 2,055, a three year low.

Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!