Wholesale Inventories

Global Stocks Slide, Futs Flat; Commodities Down On Stronger Dollar As Hike Odds Reprice Higher

The dollar index rose to a two-week high on Monday, while bond yields jumped to their highest since June and global stocks sold off after senior Federal Reserve officials indicated a U.S. interest rate increase was on the cards in the near term. The Fed effect - and the stronger dollar - reverberated through markets, pressuring stocks in Europe and emerging markets, pushing oil below $47 and the commodity complex lower.

With Janet Yellen Just Hours Away, Directionless Markets Wait For A Signal

With Yellen's much anticipated speech just hours away, the already comatose market flatlined overnight in another directionless session, with European stocks and US equity futures practically unchanged, while Asian shares to a two-week low, led by Japan, as investors showed a reluctance to take on risk before Yellen’s speech. The dollar was a tad lower, along with oil which is set for its first weekly drop in a month. 

Auto Inventories-Sales Ratio Pushes Back To Recession Cycle Highs

With ugly retail sales and wholesale inventories data rising, the business inventories data rose more than expected (+0.2% vs +0.1%) leaving the inventories-to-sales ratio still deep in recessionary territory. Notably while the overall ratio decline, autos increased to cylce highs at 2.28x. For the 18th month in a row, annual changes in sales declined and inventories rose.

US Futures Flat; Bonds Rise, Dollar And Oil Slide Over US Productivity Collapse Fears

Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,

Wholesale Inventories Rise, Sales Surge Most In 4 Years

While hope springs eternal for Q3 GDP, the revised jump in Q2 inventories data (+0.3% in June vs 0.0% exp and +0.2% in May revised up from initial) suggests perhaps Q3 will be a let-down. But all eyes will be focused on Wholesale Sales which surged 1.9% MoM - the most since Sept 2012, though we note sales remain lower (-0.45%) YoY and inventories higher (+0.24%) YoY. Sadly - for the recovery-optimists - auto inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.82x.

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

The coming week brings multiple macro data releases for July, including inflation, trade data, retail sales, IP, credit and money supply. A relatively light US data calendar next week with retail sales the main release on Friday but also import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment coming up. Retail sales will be closely watched to assess consumer spending growth for 3Q.

S&P To Open At New Record High As Commodities Rise, China Trade Disappoints

The meltup continues with the S&P500 set to open at new all time highs as futures rise 0.2% overnight, with European, Asian stocks higher, as job data pushed MSCI Asia Pacific Index towards highest close since Aug. 2015. Germany, U.K. economic data seen positive, with dollar, oil rising, and gold declining. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.4% and was headed for its highest close in almost a year.

Atlanta Fed Just Slashed its Q2 GDP Estimate To 1.8%, Cycle Low

Just hours before tomorrow's official GDP print, the Atlanta Fed just took an axe to its GDPNow US economic growth forecast. Despite the record-breaking streak of positive economic surprises, following yesterday's durable goods data and today's advance economic indicators report, GDPNow has crashed from over 2.4% to 1.8% growth for Q2.

US Futures Rise With All Eyes On Kuroda As Global Stocks Tread Water

Following yesterday's Fed decision and ahead of tonight's far more important BOJ announcement, European stocks have posted modest declines, Asian shares rise toward 9-month highs, while U.S. equity index futures are fractionally in the green in the aftermath of Facebook's blowout earnings. The dollar has extended on losses after Yellen reiterated a gradual approach to raising interest rates, and was down 0.5% in early trading.

Key Events And Earnings In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include consumer confidence on Tuesday, the durable goods report on Wednesday, and the advance release of 2nd quarter GDP on Friday. The July FOMC statement will be released on Wednesday at 2PM. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. 197 S&P 500 companies are due to report (or 38% of the index market cap) with the notable names including Apple, Verizon, Facebook, Coca-Cola, Alphabet, Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.