"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."
"There is excessive debt everywhere and negative interest rates are dangerous... My number one fear? That’s the same as asking me where it will start. When you view the economy as a complex, adaptive system, like many other systems, one of the clear findings from the literature is that the trigger doesn’t matter; it’s the system that’s unstable. And I think our system is unstable... Central Bank models are just wrong"
Another Bank Throws In The Towel: "After 6 Years Of Outperformance" Citi Cuts US Stocks To UnderweightSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/05/2016 10:35 -0500
Yesterday JPM, which despite calling for a 2,200 year end price target, paradoxically warned that the regime of "buying dips" is over, and that "we take the view that equities are unlikely to perform well on a 12-24 month horizon" adding that "the regime of buying the dips might be over and selling any rallies might be the new one." So don't buy dips yet somehow the S&P will rise 150 points? Fair enough. Today, it is Citigroup's turn to try to somehow predict both a 12% "gain for global equities in 2016" even as it tells clients to start selling US stocks because "fading EPS momentum and rising Fed funds mean that, after 6 consecutive years of outperformance, we cut the US to Underweight."
Despite the increasing perception of policy divergence between The US and the rest of the world, it appears 'factors beyond the control of the central planners' has stymied hope for any US-based sparking of global growth. Between The Fed's liquidity withdrawal and the deflationary tsunami from an emerging world buried in credit-fueled mal-investment, it is increasingly clear that central banks have lost control and everything is now going down together. As Citi's Willem Buiter recently noted, "everything's failed" so how long before we see the money drop?
"If, as seems possible, the ECB will increase, in H1 2016, the scale of its monthly asset purchases from €60bn to, say, €75bn, and if these additional purchases are concentrated on public debt, the euro area will benefit from a ‘backdoor’ helicopter money drop –something long overdue."
“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey
"Corporate balance sheet deterioration may well be a theme in 2016, raising market concerns, in our view. A mirror image of that is the rise in bank non- performing loans. Our contacts among the banks seem increasingly concerned about the NPL issue in 2016."
It’s easy to be frightened by these proposals. But if governments think they can force us to accept negative interest rates on our savings by abolishing cash, they need to think again. It’s preposterous to assume that savers will passively accept outright confiscation of their assets via negative interest rates or a ban on cash. Instead, people will simply revert to other stores of value.
In a sign that the slowing economy, rising bank NPLs, and lackluster demand for credit from overleveraged corporates is overwhelming Beijin's easing efforts, China's October loan growth data came in far weaker than expected in yet another sign that all is most certainly not well with the world's engine of global growth and trade. Meanwhile, fiscal spending soared as it now appears Beijing may have no choice but to go the helicopter route if it hopes to reignite growth.
“Bank of Ireland understands these changes may be a new way of banking for some of our customers, and the branch teams will be available to help and guide them through this change."
China Cuts Interest Rate By 25 bps, Cuts RRR by 50 bps; Futures Soar; Fed December Rate Hike Back In PlaySubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/23/2015 06:22 -0500
- CHINA CUTS BANKS’ RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO
- CHINA CUTS 1-YEAR LENDING RATE BY 0.25 PPT
- CHINA CUTS 1-YEAR DEPOSIT RATE BY 0.25 PPT
- CHINA CUTS RESERVE RATIO BY 0.5 PPT
A confluence of circumstances have conspired to make asset allocation a somewhat vexing task these days. The so called “tricky trinity” is comprised of the following three factors: decelerating global growth, the absence of a policy put, and risk premia offering but a limited buffer. For HSBC, this means "remaining highly risk averse" going forward.
"Global trade is also declining at an alarming pace. According to the latest data available in June the year on year change is -8.4%. To find periods of equivalent declines we only really find recessionary periods. This is an interesting point. On one metric we are already in a recession."
The warnings are getting louder. Is anybody listening?