Wilshire 5000

The Great Misconception Of A Return To "Normal"

The narrative seems to be that 2009 was a one off event and that the central banks role was and still is to "stabilize" the situation until things "normalize". But right there...that idea that 2009 was a "one-off" or "abnormal" couldn't be more wrong. 

Putting It All Together...

Population growth, economic growth, and resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing. The Federal Reserve knows it can not stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with interest rate cuts to incent greater consumption via skyrocketing credit/debt...

"Everyone's A Genius"

At market tops, it is common to see what I call the ‘high-five effect’ - that is, investors giving high-fives to each other because they are making so much paper money. It is happening now. I am also suspicious when amateurs come out of the woodwork to insult other investors.

Why The Stock Market Has Soared (And We'll All Soon Know What It's Like To Be A Madoff Client)

The absolute disconnect of asset prices from economic activity is and will continue to be unlike anything we have seen. This is no more of a "free market" than shooting a cow in a pasture is "hunting".  "Invest" accordingly, but know full well the ill gotten gains will one-day, someday, sooner than later, be entirely gone and we'll all know what it felt like to be Bernie Madoff clients.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

Banks In Drag - The Russell 2000 Exposed

The recent appreciation in financials is apparently a response to the new administration’s planned policies that are generally viewed as beneficial for the financial sector.  Given the regulatory oppression of the past eight years, this may very well be a sound reason to own bank stocks. However, the R2K index is trading at grossly elevated levels. Owning the index for anything other than pure speculative trading is ridiculous. Owning the index for its bank exposure is insane.

Why The 'Flyover States' Are Hurting - Bubble Finance Is Strictly For The Bicoastal Elites

The broadest measure of the stock market has risen by 125% since 1999. The real median family income has fallen by 7%. Stated differently, the bicoastal elites who own most of the nation’s financial assets or who feed off the financial system and a debt-swollen central state in Washington, believe themselves to be in the pink of prosperity. They do not understand, of course, that this is all a giant bubble which at length will burst in spectacular fashion, causing their own unearned windfalls to shrink in the process. In the meanwhile, they may come to understand that the flyover zone of America has been left behind. The main street insurgency fueling Donald Trump’s shocking rise to the top of the Presidential race proves that much in spades.

Trumped! Why It Happened And What Comes Next, Part 3 - The Jobs Deal

Donald Trump’s patented phrase “we aren’t winning anymore” lies beneath the tidal wave of anti-establishment sentiment propelling his campaign and, to some considerable degree, that of Bernie Sanders, too. What’s winning is Washington, Wall Street and the bicoastal elites. But most of America’s vast flyover zone has been left behind. Thus, the bottom 90% of families have no more real net worth today than they had 30 years ago and earn lower real household incomes and wages than they did 25 years ago. Needless to say, the lack of good jobs lies at the bottom of the wealth and income drought on main street, and this week’s April jobs report provided still another reminder.

The Broadest US Equity Index Is Hitting Resistance

Time will tell whether today’s selloff is the precursor to a real cannonball shot to the gut of the post-February rally, or merely a glancing blow. The cannonball scenario probably should not be dismissed, however, since the weakness is occurring from the right price levels.

Breadth Breakdown Bodes Badly For Budding Bulls

While the S&P 500 held support at January low (1,812) yesterday (and October 2014's Bullard bounce lows), BMO's Russ Visch warns "it may not hold in the days ahead" due to weak market breadth.