World Bank

First The UK, Then Scotland... Then Texas?

That didn't take long. Only hours after the final results came in for a British exit from the EU, political leaders in Scotland are talking about renewing their drive to secede from the United Kingdom. While secession of American states is often dismissed as absurd, there are few reasons to believe that a state like Texas - to name just one example - could not immediately transition from state to nation-state. With a large economy, port cities, oil, and easy access to European, Latin American, and even Asian economies by sea, economics arguments against such a separation fall flat.

The Scariest "Brexit's Impact On The World" Report Yet

The febrile behavior of financial markets ahead of the United Kingdom’s referendum on June 23 on whether to remain in the European Union shows that the outcome will influence economic and political conditions around the world far more profoundly than Britain’s roughly 2.4% share of global GDP might suggest. There are three reasons for this outsize impact...

Nothing Lasts Forever

As the man who perhaps best rode the coat-tails of an ever-increasing wave of American credit expansion exceptionalism (only to come undone in recent times as that game ends), it is no surprise that Warren Buffett explained in February that "for 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start." We don't mean to rain on his parade too much, but the following charts suggest "nothing lasts forever" and time is ticking...

Global Bonds Yields Plunge To Record As Treasuries Test Flash-Crash Lows

German, Japanese, and British bond yields are plumbing historic depths as low growth outlooks combined with event risk concerns (Brexit, elections, etc.) have sent investors scurrying for safe-havens (away from US Biotechs). At 2.0bps, 10Y Bunds are inching ever closer to the Maginot Line of NIRP which JGBs have already crossed, and all of this global compression is dragging US Treasury yields to their lowest levels since February's flash-crash... and it appears stocks are catching down to that reality.

Futures Slide On Rising Dollar As Global Bond Yields Hit Fresh Record Lows

Please do not adjust your screens: that off-green color you are seeing, that is not a malfunction. Yes, for the first time in six days, global stocks are lower with the MSCI all-country world index dipping from a 6 month high dragged down by lower European and Japanese equity markets, as the USDJPY dropped to a fresh five-week low while Treasury yields continued to hit new record lows because, as Bloomberg explains, "traders assessed the outlook for the global economy."

"The Whole Shebang Is Broke" - The Only Thing That's Growing Is Debt

Despite what the media try to tell you, as do the close to 100% manipulated economic data emanating from various -tightly controlled- sources, the economy is not growing, and it hasn’t for years; the only thing that grows is debt. And you can’t borrow growth. The single best thing to do for all of us not in positions of politico/economic power is to recognize the irreversible collapse of the system. Simply put, the whole shebang is broke.

China Oil Imports Drop To Four Month Low As Demand Is Expected To "Moderate Significantly" In 2016

Oil imports by China fell to a four-month low in part due to congestion at one of its biggest ports curbed purchases from independent refiners. Inbound shipments in May totaled 32.24 million metric tons. That’s equivalent to 7.62 million barrels a day , down 4.3 percent from the previous month, and the lowest since January. It gets worse; according to an analysis from S&P Global Platts "China's oil demand growth is expected to moderate significantly in 2016 as gross domestic product growth slows on the back of economic rebalancing."

Frontrunning: June 8

  • World stocks struggle to build on highs as Europe weighs (Reuters)
  • Oil hits eight-month high on disruptions, Chinese demand (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Set for Democratic Nomination After Primary Wins (WSJ)
  • DNC avoids calling Clinton presumptive nominee (The Hill)
  • Trump, Rattled by Critics, Treads Carefully in Victory Speech (BBG)

Futures Levitate To Session Highs As ECB Enters The Bond Market; Crude Hits $51

In an overnight session dominated by the latest political developments out of the US where Hillary Clinton officially claimed the democratic nomination, the financial newsflow focused on China's trade data, where exports fell 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, but imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014, driven entire by soaring "imports" from Hong Kong - aka capital outflows - which soared by 243% y/y.  The other main news was the official launch of the ECB's corporate bond buying, which helped drive government bonds yields in German to new record lows, and the average yields on investment-grade corporate debt below 1%.

S&P Nears All Time High, Global Stocks Rally As Dovish Yellen Unleashes Animal Spirits

Stock whisperer Yellen said all the right things yesterday, when she sounded more optimistic than pessimistic on the economy but while the economy is "strong" it is most likely not strong enough to weather a rate hike in the immediate future. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed toward a record on Monday (and continued rising overnight) after Yellen said she expects to raise interest rates only gradually and held off from specifying any timeframe, a shift from her May 27 stance that a move was probable “in the coming months.” This was interpreted that both a June and July rate hike are now off the table, with September odds rising modestly.

Why The G7 May Be Hastening Helicopter Money

Faced with a sharply appreciating yen, and lacking G7 support, Japan may need to take extreme measures. More than three years into Abenomics, and with policymakers running out of options on how to reverse the economy's trend, the Bank of Japan may be forced to intervene with unorthodox and untested policy, such as “helicopter money.”

China Is The Biggest Short...Ever

As simply put as possible... over the next 2 decades, there will be an average of 7.5 million fewer 0-55yr/old Chinese every year vs. an average annual increase of 9.5 million 55+yr/olds. And the wealthy minority of the elderly have stashed their reserves in a whole lot of expensive, vacant real estate that they intend to pass along (rent or sell) to the declining young population.  What could go wrong since housing prices only go up...right!?!