World Bank

The End Of A Trend: Oil Prices And Economic Growth

Far from a sign of good things for the economy as whole, recently declining oil prices now tend to indicate a weakening economy that was already in a weak state. It turns out that the oil price and the economy are now in a very tight relationship, and we are going to be seeing them together a lot for a long time to come.

Global Trade Is Not Growing Slowly... It's Not Growing At All!

"Falling rates of global trade growth have attracted much comment by analysts and officials, giving rise to a literature on the ‘global trade slowdown’ giving the impression of world trade losing momentum, but growing nonetheless. The sense of the global pie getting larger has the soothing implications... but our first finding that the rosy impression painted by some should be set aside...trade volumes have plateaued... Except during global recessions, a plateau lasting 15 months is practically unheard of since the Berlin Wall fell."

Barack Obama Will Be The Only President In History To Never Have A Year Of 3% GDP Growth

Q2's US GDP growth data just crushed President Obama's 'fiction-peddling' that everything is awesome and those doom-and-gloom reality-pushers are cynical skeptics. Simply put, average annual growth rate during the current 'Obamanomics' business cycle remains the weakest of any expansion since at least 1949 leaving the orator-in-chief on track to be the only President in U.S. history to never have a single year when the economy grew by at least 3%.

IRS Launches Investigation Of Clinton Foundation

Lawmakers charged the Clinton Foundation is a “lawless ‘pay-to-play’ enterprise that has been operating under a cloak of philanthropy for years and should be investigated.”

"The System Has No Chance Of Regaining Stability"

"I see people saying the system is unstable. Fine, as long as they realize it has no chance of regaining stability, not with its present components. There will have to be a big clean-up. But it will be messy. A very limited number of people, with all of their minions, control the entire now unstable edifice, and they’ll fight tooth and nail to keep their power. Nevertheless, they’ll lose."

A Post Western World? A Disturbing Interview With Prof. Harry Redner - Part 1

The political and economic issues broadly discussed in the media usually revolve around political cycles, terrorism, foreign policy, rising debt levels, sluggish economic performance, academic underachievement, environmental problems, ageing demographics and so forth.  In our view, this all ties into a major cycle of history that has been with us for some time, and which has been gaining traction since the 1990s: the end of "Western Civilization" and the transition towards a globalized society.

Why Oil Prices Might Never Recover

Two years into the global oil-price collapse, it seems unlikely that prices will return to sustained levels above $70 per barrel any time soon or perhaps, ever. That is because the global economy is exhausted. The current oil-price rally is over and prices are heading toward $40 per barrel. Oil has been re-valued to affordable levels based on the real value of money. The market now accepts the erroneous producer claims of profitability below the cost of production and has adjusted expectations accordingly. Be careful of what you ask for.

"China Is Headed For A 1929-Style Depression"

“The government is allowing speculation by providing cheap financing,” Andy Xie exclaimed, China “is riding a tiger and is terrified of a crash. So it keeps pumping cash into the economy. It is difficult to see how China can avoid a crisis.”

America's "Soaring" Gasoline And Oil Demand Was Just An Illusion: How The EIA Fooled The Algos

"Could it be that the U.S. demand that's helped drive a near doubling of oil prices since mid-February was illusory?" That may be a reasonable conclusion to draw from the latest data published by the DOE.  When looking at weekly figures, it looks like U.S. gasoline demand is soaring. But the latest monthly data, showing the numbers for April, paint a very different picture. They show U.S. gasoline consumption falling between March and April. "The discrepancy between the two sets of data that gives cause for concern."

IMF Warns Brexit "Uncertainty" Means "Even Lower Growth" For UK, EU

“Brexit has created significant uncertainty and we believe this is likely to dampen growth in the near term, particularly in the U.K. but with repercussions also for Europe and the global economy. Prolonged periods of uncertainty and associated declines in consumer and business confidence would mean even lower growth”

Global Institutions May Be Susceptible To Hackers, SWIFT Remains Vulnerable

The SWIFT rebuild will likely require the insights of an outlet such as Hyper Ledger, run by longtime Zero Hedge CDS and commodity trading icorn, Blythe Masters.  Hyper Ledger works with a consortium of organizations and corporations tasked with developing systems to offer protection for messages sent between  the worlds central banks, which will be based on blockchain technology.  A rebuild opens new concerns about the current integrity of the SWIFT platform and what problems may be lurking within it that we have yet to discover.