Of all the hollow and uninspired elections that this country has suffered through over the past several decades, one might think that at some point long ago the American public would have finally struck a plateau of disenfranchisement; that we could sink no further into despondency, that there is a saturation limit to the corruption of our voting process. Unfortunately, there has been no such luck. We have to say that in all honesty we have never seen more people gut jumbled and disgusted with our electoral system than we have in 2012. In 2012, it will not be about voting. It will not be about “winning”. It will not even be about getting to the next election. It will be about survival. We're sorry to say that the idea that one man will do less damage than the other is a naïve sentiment. Democrat? Republican? Obama? Romney? The crimes and calamities wrought will be exactly the same. Take a look into our crystal ball and see the future. Here is how the winner will destroy America.
Tim Geithner's public "servant" tenure has not been without its blemishes: from his deplorable run as the (figure)head of the New York Fed (from 2003 until 2009), when the entire financial system literally imploded under his watch, to his epic failing up as Hank Paulson's replacement as treasury Secretary of the United States, despite his legendary inability to navigate the Minotaurian labyrinth that is the TurboTax income tax flowchart, the Dartmouth alum has had his share of run ins with adversity (and adversity won). Of course, Geithner's tenure in charge of the Treasury in the past 4 years has been somewhat mollified by the fact that here too here was merely a figurehead, and the true entity that runs the US printing presses is none other than the JPM and Goldman Sachs co-chaired Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (for more on the TBAC read here and especially here as pertains to the former LTCM trader and current head of JPM's CIO group), meaning that the US Treasury, just like the Fed, are merely branches of the one true power in US governance: Wall Street. Geithnerian figureheadedness aside, the one undeniable fact is that Tim Geithner's days as head of the Treasury are now numbered: he has made it quite clear that he will not accompany Obama (should the incumbent be reelected) into his second term. So what is a career "public servant" to do once the public no longer has any interest in retaining his services? Bloomberg's Deborah Solomon has some suggestions...
If you often wonder why ‘free market capitalism’ feels like it is failing despite universal assurances from economists and political pundits that it is working as intended, your intuition is correct. Free market capitalism has become a thing of the past. In truth free market capitalism has been replaced by something that is truly anti-free market and anti-capitalistic. The diversion operates in plain sight. Beginning sometime around 1970 the U.S. and most of the ‘free world’ have diverged from traditional “free market capitalism” to something different. Today the U.S. and much of the world’s economies are operating under what I call Monetary Fascism: a system where financial interests control the State for the advancement of the financial class. This is markedly different from traditional Fascism: a system where State and industry work together for the advancement of the State. Monetary Fascism was created and propagated through the Chicago School of Economics. Milton Friedman’s collective works constitute the foundation of Monetary Fascism. Today the financial and banking class enforces this ideology through the media and government with the same ruthlessness of the Church during the Dark Ages: to question is to be a heretic. When asked in an interview what humanities’ future looked like, Eric Blair, better known as George Orwell, said “Imagine a boot smashing a human face forever.”
Chinese economic data has in general been surprising to the downside in recent weeks - in opposition to the positive (seasonally adjusted awesomeness) of US data. However, for tonight's entertainment we have GDP at 7.4% YoY - perfectly in line with expectations (but the 7th consecutive quarter of slowing growth), Industrial Production beat modestly, Retail Sales beat handsomely (biggest beat in 18 months), and FAI beat...
- *CHINA 3Q GDP RISES 7.4% VS ECONOMISTS' EST. 7.4% :NBSZ CH
- *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 9.2% VS 9% ECONOMISTS' EST.
- *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT UP 20.5% VS EST. 20.2%
- *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 14.2% FROM YEAR EARLIER
So, no new stimulus coming anytime soon - leaving Bernanke and Draghi all alone (and the latter is stuck waiting for Rajoy to say 'Si'). AUD lurched violently up and down; US equity futures are unmoved; and Treasury yields rose perhaps 1bps.
"The consensus view was that QE3 was going to send the stock market to the moon. Yet the peak level on the S&P 500 was 1,465 on September 14th, the day after the FOMC meeting. The consensus view was that the lagging hedge funds were going to be forced to play some major catch-up and take the stock market to the moon too. Surveys show that the hedge funds have already made this adjustment...Q3 EPS estimates are still coming down and now stand at -3% YoY from -2% at the start of October....this is the first time the Fed embarked on a nonconventional easing initiative with the market overbought and with profits and earning expectations on a discernible downtrend. Not only that, but the fact the pace of U.S. economic activity is still running below a 2% annual rate, which is less than half of what is normal at this stage of the business cycle with the massive amount of government stimulus, is truly remarkable. Keep an eye on the debt ceiling being re-tested — the cap is $16.394 trillion and we are now at $16.119 trillion. This is likely to make the headlines again before year-end — the rating agencies may not be taking off much time for a Christmas break."
- Hilsenrath Humor du jour: Bernanke Advocates Stronger Currencies (WSJ)
- Auditors want two more years for Greece on deficit (Spiegel)
- More bluster: Schaeuble Rules Out Greek Default as Samaras, Troika Bargain (Bloomberg)
- And even more bluster: De Jager Says Greece Needs to Make Fiscal Reforms Immediately (Bloomberg)
- Global Economy Distress 3.0 Looms as Emerging Markets Falter (Bloomberg)
- Central bank governor stresses inflation control (China Daily)
- Greek Yields Reach Post Debt-Swap Low as Bunds Slip on Schaeuble (Bloomberg)
- Roth and Shapely win Nobel prize for economics (Reuters)
- Fed chief rounds on stimulus critics (FT)
- IMF Board Sees Biggest Power Shift Reshuffle in Two Decades (Bloomberg)
- EU Girds for Summit as Nobel’s Glow Fades on Crisis Response (Bloomberg)
- Japan security environment tougher than ever (Reuters)
When push comes to shove, China still has the bigger gun over Japan on many other levels, and the U.S. most likely has to at least sit in the bed it’s made so far.
Risk averse sentiment dominate the session, as market participants looked forward to the latest European finance ministers meeting who are due to discuss Spain’s finances, as well as Greece, which is yet to formalise spending cuts in order to receive the next aid tranche. Reports that China's economic growth is expected to have slowed to 7.5% in Q3 from 7.6% in Q2 weighed on basic materials and industrials stocks. The World Bank cut its 2012 GDP forecast for China to 7.7% from 8.2%; 2013 to 8.1% from 8.6%. Uncertainty surrounding the never-ending sovereign debt crisis in Europe weighed on financials, and in turn translated into lower 3m EURUSD cross currency basis. Peripheral bond yields rose, with Italy underperforming, ahead of the supply later on in the week. Going forward, given the Columbus Day holiday across the pond, trade volumes are expected to be below the average.
- Italy rejects need for EU control (FT)
- ‘Worst US quarterly earnings since 2009’ (FT)
- Chinese firm helps Iran spy on citizens (Reuters)
- World Bank cuts East Asia GDP outlook, flags China risks (Reuters)
- Foxconn factory rolls on in spite of strike (China Daily)
- Economic recovery ‘on the ropes’ (FT)
- Japan Tries Cars That Make the Mini Look Maxi (Businessweek)
- Euro Finance Chiefs to Give Positive Greece Statement, Rehn Says (Bloomberg)
- Romney attacks drones policy (FT)
- Euro zone mulls 20 billion euro separate budget (Reuters)
- Hong Kong’s Leung Seeks Turnaround With Economy Focus (Bloomberg)
- RBA Keeps Some Documents Private in Securency Bribe Probe (Bloomberg)
- India Inflation to Remain at 7.5%-8% Till Early 2013 (WSJ)
Usually on semi-US holidays such as today, when bonds are closed but equities left to the whims of vacuum tubes, equities do their mysterious ramp and never look back. So far today, however, this has failed to happen with futures at lows, driven by a noticeably weak EURUSD, which has traded down nearly 100 pips from the Friday late day ramp close, currently at 1.2940. It is unclear what has spooked the Euro so far, although all signs point to, as they did 2 months ago, the Spanish lack of willingness to throw in the towel and demand a bailout, thus easing conditions for everyone else if not for Spain PM Rajoy. Today's main event will be European finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg to discuss the recent Spanish economic transformation efforts as well as an attempt to accelerate banking cooperation and implement a banking regulator - something which is needed for the ESM to monetize bank debt, and something which Germany has been firmly against from day one. Additionally, a day ahead of Merkel's visit to German (where she will be protected by 6-7,000 cops), the ministers are likely to make a positive statement on Greece’s progress toward austerity targets, according to European viceroy Olli Rehn said. In other overnight news, German Industrial Production saw a -0.5% decline, which was modestly better than the -0.6% expected. Over in Asia, China reopened from its 1 week Golden Week hibernation with the SHCOMP down -0.56% to 20.76.42 following a small bounce in the China HSBC Services PMI to 54.3 from 52 in August, and with average house prices rising for a 4th month in a row, and even more repo operations by the PBOC, the result is that the market's ungrounded hopium for an immediate PBOC liquidity injection was taken away pushing regional markets lower.
New York Times Concedes that It Is Unknown Whether Syrian Artillery Came from Rebels or Government ... Ron Paul: Beware ...Submitted by George Washington on 10/07/2012 13:44 -0500
Weekend Mideast News Roundup
History has shown us countless times that centrally-?planned, command style economies do not produce long-?term economic growth. We’ve seen this will the Soviet Union, the UK, the US-?since the Tech Crash, and today in China.
As corn prices have rolled over and even the World Bank worries over the impact of financial crises and food prices, we present with little comment, one of the more staple sustenances - now trading at record high prices... transitory we presume?
In order to avoid social unrest and absorb the world's young people entering the global workforce, the World Bank Development Report states that 600 million jobs must be created from 2005 to 2020. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports, jobs should be at the top of governments' agendas or they could face further uprisings such as toppled leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. "Demographic shifts, technological progress, and the lasting effects of the international financial crisis are reshaping the employment landscape in countries around the world, and those that successfully adapt to these changes and meet their jobs challenges can achieve dramatic gains in living standards, productivity growth, and more cohesive societies." However, those countries that don't adapt, face the kind of social unrest we have warned of again and again - and are starting to see in more and more civilized Western nations. Their findings:- 90% of jobs are created in the private sector and so Governments must create an environment that encourages investment - especially in small- and medium-sized business. So - a mere 600 milion jobs and all is well - amazing!!!
- RBA Cuts Rate to 3.25% as Mining-Driven Growth Wanes (Reuters)
- Republicans Not Buying Bernanke’s QE3 Defense (WSJ)
- Spain ready for bailout, Germany signals "wait" (Reuters)
- EU says prop trading and investment banking should be separated from deposit taking (Reuters)
- Call for bank bonuses to be paid in debt (FT)
- Spanish Banks Need More Capital Than Tests Find, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg) ... as we explained on Friday
- "Fiscal cliff" to hit 90% of US families (FT)
- The casualties of Chesapeake's "land grab" across America (Reuters)
- U.K. Government Needs to Do More to Boost Weak Economy, BCC Says (Bloomberg)
- World Bank Sees Long Crisis Effect (WSJ)
- UBS Co-Worker Says He Used Adoboli’s Umbrella Account (Bloomberg)
- And more easing: South Korea central bank switches tack to encourage growth (Reuters)