The model in my forecast says that meaningful reform to the status quo will not be readily accepted by the power elite. They will promote a 'new normal' which will span a leisurely 'five to ten years' for economic recovery, while they are comfortably standing above it all on other people's necks.
It's looking more and more like an anti-Islam Christian nationalist psychopath was the terrorist ...
Relevant News by www.thetrader.se
Is this like South Africa at the end of the Apartheid era, where those in power have to hand over some of the reins to the majority to prevent violence?
All you need to know by www.thetrader.se
Outgoing Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen’s bumbling replies to questions by “automated” university students during a mid-July Beijing visit were symptomatic of total disarray in U.S. China policy. Instead of clear-cut defense of no military takeover of Taiwan, with its 25 million the only free society in Chinese history, the Admiral backed into a defense of U.S. policy as if the Taiwan Relations Act were an impediment Washington leadership had difficulty overcoming.
All you need to know by www.thetrader.se
The Coming "New World Order" Revolution: How Things Will Change In The Next 20 Years - A Kondratieff Cycle PerspectiveSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/06/2011 21:20 -0500
SocGen has published a fantastic, must read big picture report, which compares the world in the 1980/1985-2000/2005 time period and juxtaposes it to what the author, Veronique Riches-Flores predicts will happen over the next two decades years, the period from 2005/2010 to 2025/2030. Unlike other very narrow and short-sighted projections, this one is based not on trivial and grossly simplified assumptions such as perpetual growth rates, but on a holistic demographic approach to perceiving the world. At its core, SocGen compares the period that just ended, one in which world growth was driven by an expansion in supply, to one that will be shaped by an explosion of demand. And, unfortunately, the transformation from the Supply-driven to the Demand-driven world will not be pretty. Summarizing this outlook: "Over the last three decades strong growth in the working-aged population across Asia and the opening-up of world trade have led to considerable expansion in global production capacities. These factors created a highly competitive and disinflationary environment of plentiful supply, which was characterised by low interest rates, a credit boom and, in the financial markets, exuberant appetite for risky assets. As the demographic cycle progresses, we are seeing the emergence of an aging population, which is less favourable to productive investment. Meanwhile the rise in living standards among the emerging population heralds an unprecedented level of growth in demand. The world supply/demand balance is dramatically changing against a backdrop of resource shortages which are likely to favour shorter cycles, increased government intervention in economic affairs and inflation." In other words, contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, the future is about to get ugly. And topping it all off is a Kondratieff cycle chart: what's not to like. Read on.
Below is a translation of a letter from Professor Schwarz-Schilling to Richard Herzinger of Die Welt c/o my friend Achim Duebel in Berlin. He writes: "Mr. Mladic perhaps is right to be angry, sitting so lonely in the dock in The Hague. A Europe unable to learn from its past sits in the shadow behind him."
"Regular readers may be aware that two of the author’s greatest bugbears are Malthusianism and mindlessly mathematical macroeconomics. The two of these come into no sharper focus than when we turn to the hoary old canard of ‘Peak Oil’, especially when it cites the work of those two past masters of wrongly–applied ratiocination, Hubbert and Hotelling. The former we have recently dealt with already, so let us say a few words about the latter—a gentlemen who was a statistician, not an economist, in an era when there was still an honourable degree of separation between the two disciplines (ironically, he was also, at one time, Murray Rothbard’s professor at Columbia before the latter had a self?declared ‘epiphany’ regarding the flimsy epistemological grounds upon which much statistics lies and quit the course forthwith). The better to set the scene, let us first note that those who think of themselves as ‘resource economists’ all seem to think of their subject as if they were describing an Easter egg hunt. In this, an explicitly determine number of eggs are scattered about over a given territory and the seekers are then sent off to find them. Once found and eaten, they can never be replaced. I’m sorry, boys and girls, but the fun’s over and it’s back to spinach and cauliflower from here on in." - Sean Corrigan
PIMCO Scott Mather has released a fascinating Q&A in which the key topic of discussion is the artificial push to keep rates low in developed economies, also known as central bank hubris to maintain the "great moderation" in which he clearly explains i) what this means for global fund flow dynamics (using developed country reserves and purchasing EM bonds) and ii) for the future of a system held together with glue and crutches. To wit: "Financial repression is any public policy
that is designed to influence the market price of financing government
debts, either through government bonds or the nation’s currency. Direct
methods of repression include things like setting target interest rates,
monetizing government debt or implementing interest rate caps. Indirect
methods include polices designed to change the amount of debt or
currency at a given price. Examples include requirements to hold minimum
amounts of government debt on bank balance sheets or establishing
minimum requirements for government bonds in pension funds." Just in case anyone is confused why central planning is a bad idea: "Governments may take these steps to improve their ability to
finance public debt and forestall more painful adjustment processes,
though there can be other motives, and because these methods are less
transparent, and thus less controversial, than direct tax hikes or
spending cuts. Investors should be wary of financial repression because
it is primarily a tool to redistribute wealth from creditors (citizens)
to debtors (governments) to the detriment of creditors, fixed income
investors and savers." Needless to say, central planning always fails: "It is important to realize these methods as practiced are only
partially effective and cannot go on forever, as advanced economies
continue to add significantly to their public debts despite low
financing costs. Some intensification of financial repression, fiscal
austerity, or stronger growth must occur to lower the likelihood of a
future debt crisis." Bottom line: "kicking the can" can only go on for so long before EMs (read why below) provide a natural counterbalance to an artificial market created by developed world central banks. PIMCO's advice: get out of balance sheet risky DM bonds ahead of central planning failure, and buy up every EM bond possible, or bypass paper and just buy EM currencies as "EM policymakers who have resisted appreciation will
eventually allow more appreciation over the next three to five years as
they nurture domestic consumption and their economies become less
dependent on export demand." We expect to see much more on this topic as the MSM realizes the implications of this new risk regime change.
Will you own your own body? Or will that be privatized, too?
Here is an exclusive interview forwarded to me by German investigative journalist Lars Schall conducted with James G. Rickards. The interview with Mr. Rickards covers a variety of topics including his thoughts on quantitative easing, the currency wars of the past and the present, and central banks’ views towards gold.
But no one was demoted, let alone fired. In fact, many of those who dropped the ball were PROMOTED, just like the knuckleheads who caused the economic crisis were PROMOTED to top posts.