World Trade

Why We Have A Wage-Inequality Problem

Wage inequality is really a sign of a deeper problem; basically it reflects an economic system that is not growing rapidly enough to satisfy everyone. Our basic problem is that the world economy is growing so slowly that the ordinary workers at the bottom find themselves with less than an adequate quantity of goods and services. This problem seems to be getting worse rather than better, over time, making the problem a political issue.

The World Has 6 Options To Avoid Japan's Fate, And According To HSBC, They Are All Very Depressing

"The escape options are a mixture of the ineffectual, the limited, the risky, the foolhardy or the excessively slow. As Japan’s recent experiments have demonstrated, upping the monetary dosage alone is not enough to cure the affliction. Indeed, to the extent that monetary stimulus only encourages a further wave of risk-taking within financial markets – often outside of the mainstream banking system - it may only perpetuate unstable deflationary stagnation."

Hugh Hendry: "If China Devalues By 20% The World Is Over, Everything Hits A Wall"

"Tomorrow we wake up and China has devalued 20%, the world is over. The world is over. Euro breaks up. The world is over. The euro breaks up. Everything hits a wall. There's no euro in that scenario. The US economy, I mean everything hits a wall! Everything hits a wall! It's a 'Mad Max' movie, right. OK, China gets to be the king in 'Mad Max' world. How appealing is that?"

Is ISIS Faithful To Islam?

“We are not at war with Islam,” said John Kasich after the Brussels massacre, “We’re at war with radical Islam.” Kasich’s point raises a question: Does the Islamic faith in any way sanction or condone what those suicide bombers did?

The New New 'Deal' - "Markets Are Too Important To Be Left To Investors"

In the same way that FDR had an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US labor market, so does the US Executive branch today (regardless of what party holds the office) have an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US capital markets. Transforming Wall Street into a political utility was an afterthought for FDR; today the relative importance of the labor markets and capital markets have completely switched positions. Today, the quote would be "markets are too important to be left to investors."

Day Of Reckoning Looms

Stock markets are said to “discount the future.” Maybe they see something we don’t. Or maybe they are simply preparing for a more spectacular day of reckoning by drawing more mom-and-pop investors into deeper water; as always, we wait to find out.

The 'Market State' Prediction Went Terribly Wrong

"In retrospect the idea that an increasingly internationalized political elite would automatically remain faithful agents of their own populations should have rang alarm bells." Who are the internationalized political elite faithful too?

Visualising America's "Irrelevant" Exports & Imports

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its data on U.S. trade in goods by selected countries and world region for 2015. Based on the data, the U.S. exported over $1.5 trillion and imported over $2.2 trillion in goods throughout 2015. This leaves leaves the U.S. with a negative balance of $735 billion! So the next time someone comes on TV and proclaims that the collapse in world trade volumes is irrelevant to the US equity market and US economy... perhaps point them in this direction.

Why Globalization Reaches Limits

We have been living in a world of rapid globalization, but this is not a condition that we can expect to continue indefinitely.

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis

One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Spoiler alert: Yes.