The Federal Reserve has pursued the unprecedented monetary policy of lowering rates to zero and increasing their portfolio from 500 billion to over 4 trillion. But as the Fed reminds us, there is a cost.
Economic warfare aims to capture or otherwise control the supply of critical economic resources or destroying a country’s currency. The US understands better than anybody else that a country can sometimes be hurt more by doing this than by bombing its infrastructure. The tool of exclusion from the dollar-denominated global financial system is described as a 'neutron bomb' constituting a more potent bomb than any military weapon.But recent developments signal the first stages of the US dollar’s decay.
“I think this interest rate hike is too late. This economy is closer to falling over than it is to going up. I think there’s a high probability that we’re looking at a recession in the next twelve months."
If the United States were truly serious about terrorism, it would start by gauging the level of threat properly and communicating that appraisal to the American people: We would also have a more honest and open discussion about our own role in generating it; we would now be having a frank discussion about the role of the media; we’d also see more creative efforts to discredit, marginalize, spoof, and embarrass the groups we oppose; and you’d see a more hardnosed approach to the various American “allies” who are part of the problem rather than being part of the solution.
"What’s it like playing chess with Obama?" asks a top aid of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Putin replies, "It's like playing chess with a pigeon. First it knocks over all the pieces, then it shits on the board, and finally it struts around like it won."
The next financial crisis could manifest itself in the coming months. If so, it will mark the end of current central bank monetary policies and state control of markets, as free markets reassert realistic pricing. Government bond yields will normalise, stock markets will fall, and banks will almost certainly fail. When something as epochal as this happens, we can expect the macroeconomic establishment to be clueless with respect to the problem itself and its scale.
Economists have put together models of how an economy works, but these models were developed years ago, when the world economy was far from limits. These models may have been reasonably adequate when they were developed, but there is increasing evidence that they don’t work in an economy that is reaching limits.
12 hours after his dramatic campaign statement to shut out Muslims arrivals into the US, Donald Trump doubled down and in a series of interviews early on Tuesday, he repeatedly told anchors such as CNN's Chris Cuomo that "we're at war - get it through your head" in his latest heated exchange, during which he reminded America how quickly people have forgotten "World Trade Center #1 and World Trade Center #2."
"We're gonna have to figure it out, we can't live like this. It's going to get worse and worse, we're going to have more World Trade Centers. It's going to get worse and worse, folks. We can be politically correct and we can be stupid but it's going to be worse and worse." Donald Trump said even as an AP summary of Muslim reactions to Trump can be summarized as follows: "He's trying to alienate not only the Muslim population of the United States but all the Muslims around the world."
So how do you grow household wealth by $18 trillion in the face of these dismal real world trends? In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses.Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.
"As part of an intellectual tradition that saw the salvation of the world in some form of world government... and with the financial backing of the CIA and the US State Department, the Anglo-American establishment was now committed to the creation of a federal United States of Europe." Today, this is still the case. Powerful international lobbies are already at work attempting to prove that any return to democratic self-government will spell doom.
Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.
"The political left is happy to see people cross borders but would gladly restrict the flow of capital and goods. The political right is happy to see capital and goods cross borders but would gladly build a fence to restrict the flow of people. I’m afraid that the compromise might be to restrict people, capital and goods."
The Trade-Weighted US Dollar has risen almost 19% over the past 18 months - the fastest pace of increase on record - and is now at its highest level since 2003. As we noted previously, this is not unequivocally good for American corporate profits... and if you believe The Fed's Stan Fischer - the worst effects of this soaring exchange rate are yet to come... Most of the impact of exchange rate moves come after that first year. So we’re only just getting into the business end of the impact of the dollar’s strength on the US economy. And the Fed are about to hike?