World Trade

The Banquet Of Consequences Is Being Served (By The Central Banking Cartel)

Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to keep US interest rates unchanged, marking its 96th month of life at the zero bound. Apparently, for all of its "data dependence", the Fed feels the economy could still benefit from *just* a little more of its ZIRP happy juice. But as anyone with a little common sense will tell you, More is not always better. It's quite possible to have too much of a good thing. And in its pursuit to kick the can for a little longer, the Fed has crossed a dangerous line.

Futures Fail To Rebound As Deutsche Bank Tries To Comfort Markets That It Is "Fine"

After yesterday's "Hillary rally" in the US, the overnight's session has seen more risk-on sentiment as European stocks advanced, ignoring weakness in Asia as investors followed every twist of shares of beleaguered lender Deutsche Bank, whose CEO last night assured Bill readers that the bank is not seeking a bailout, which however was contradicted by a Zeit article this morning reporting that Germany may seek as much as s 25% "bailout" stake in a worst case scenario.

The FT Goes Full Fearmonger: Electing Trump "Would Unravel The World"

"Sometimes history jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war,... We may be on the brink of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the end of a US-led west as the central force in global affairs. The result would not be a new order. It would be perilous disorder."

Global Trade To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial Crisis

According to the latest WTO forecast, global trade is set to grow at the slowest pace since the financial crisis: the WTO now expects world trade will again grow more slowly than expected in 2016, expanding by just 1.7%, well below the April forecast of 2.8%. This means that 2016 will be the first time in 15 years that the ratio between trade growth and world GDP has fallen below 1:1. 

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Frontrunning: September 23

  • Futures slip after three-day rally as oil dips (Reuters)
  • Charlotte protests diminish early on Friday as family views video (Reuters)
  • Undecided Voters Are Proving a Tough Sell for Clinton and Trump (BBG)
  • Facebook Overestimated Key Video Metric For Two Years (WSJ)
  • Trump received $1.6 million from Secret Service (Politico)

Raoul Pal: Business Cycle Tinder For A Global Banking System Fire

"...after every single two-term presidential election (i.e. when the incumbent changes) and there is a 100% track record of a recession within the next 12 months. It either starts just beforehand or starts afterward, but within 12 months there is a 100% chance of a recession... Even if they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten like crazy... I think the Fed is almost an irrelevance at this point."

IMF's Lagarde Slams Globalization, Warns Of A "Groundswell Of Discontent"

"... growing inequality in wealth, income, and opportunity in many countries has added to a groundswell of discontent, especially in the industrialized world—a growing sense among some citizens that they “lack control,” that the system is somehow against them. Financial institutions are being seen as unaccountable to society.... Corruption remains endemic."

Frontrunning: September 12

  • Selloff gathers pace as stimulus pullback fears deepen (Reuters)
  • Clinton's bout of pneumonia raises worries for Democrats (Reuters)
  • Google's Self-Driving Car Project Is Losing Out to Rivals (BBG)
  • OPEC sees more oil supply from rivals, implying larger 2017 surplus (Reuters)
  • Oil falls as U.S. drills more (Reuters)