World Trade

Only One Step Away From A Global Trade War

Isolated trade-war hot spots that are starting to smolder in different parts of the world could quickly converge into a single major, global, trade-war conflagration.

Trump’s Shot Across China’s Bow

"Trump’s purely symbolic shot across the bow, as an answer to all of China’s more-or-less purely symbolic boundary pushing in the Western Pacific, should, in fact, actually help the Chinese stay out of trouble, by putting them on notice that actions do have consequences, that there actually are costs to trying to repeatedly pin a clown nose on the sheriff."

Frontrunning: December 6

  • For Europe’s Unity, 2017 Will Be a Year of Reckoning (WSJ)
  • Oil dips as OPEC, Russian output rises ahead of production cut (Reuters)
  • The Pessimist's Guide to 2017 (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Message Sparks Anger in China (WSJ)
  • Brazil’s Reform Plan in Disarray After Senate Chief Removed (BBG)

Frontrunning: November 29

  • Monte dei Paschi’s Future Hangs on Sunday Vote (WSJ)
  • Trump Son-in-Law Jared Kushner Could Face Conflict-of-Interest Questions (WSJ)
  • In OPEC’s High-Stakes Poker Game, Iran and Iraq Call Saudi Bluff (BBG)
  • Iran, Iraq at loggerheads with Saudis ahead of OPEC meeting (Reuters)
  • High-Profile Private Investors Take Hit on Theranos (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 28

  • Trump Alleges That ‘Millions of People’ Voted Illegally (WSJ)
  • Oil slip sends dollar, bond yields skidding (Reuters)
  • Italian Lenders Slide on Vote Worries to Drag Down Europe Stocks (BBG)
  • OPEC makes last-ditch bid to save oil deal as tensions grow (Reuters)
  • How Iran, Russia Could Derail Oil-Production Deal (WSJ)
  • Tug of War Delays Some of Trump’s Key Appointments (WSJ)

All Aboard The Post-TPP World

Whatever the contours of Trump’s China/Asia foreign policy, Eurasian integration will proceed unabated. TPP – or NATO on trade, the Asian version - is just a scalp in a long and winding road. And on the South China Sea, dialogue is slowly edging out the confrontation fomented throughout the Obama administration.

Donald Trump And The Return Of European Anti-Americanism

European criticism of Trump goes far beyond a simple displeasure with the man who will be the next president. The condemnation reveals a deep-seated contempt for the United States, and for American voters who democratically elected a candidate committed to restoring American economic and military strength. European anti-Americanism is certain to escalate in the years ahead, not because of Trump or his policies, but because "globalists" appear desperate to save the failing European Union

Cable Slides As British PM May Confirms No Extension Of Brexit Process

Following this morning's chaotic spike higher in cable, the currency pair du jour is falling back quickly following comments from British PM Theresa May confirming the government will not seek an extension to the Article 50 process and plans to exit the EU by end-March 2019.

Yuan Smashes Through 6.90... What Next?

While the Renminbi basket (Chinese currency basket relative to biggest world trade partners' currencies) has been 'stable' for almost 5 months, the catchdown in the Yuan's purchasing power against the US Dollar is accelerating rapidly. Busting through 6.90/$ in early Asian trading, the last time offshore Yuan cratered this quickly, stocks plunged in January. The question is - how much further can the Yuan fall before the Trump bump gets damaged?

As The Dust Settles: Goldman Q&A On Life In Trumplandia

Expect the election result to increase policy uncertainty, warns Goldman Sachs, as a result of an increased pace of legislative action in 2017 without clarity, so far, regarding which issues the administration will prioritize. Over the near-term, much will depend on how financial conditions respond to the policy positions of the new administration. Despite today’s favorable market reaction, investors may take a dimmer view on proposals to raise tariffs or otherwise restrict international trade.

Gartman Says Sell Everything: "Bear Markets Are Now Fully Engaged"

"At this point there is nothing that we can say other than protection must be taken; that positions on the long side have to be reduced into any strength that may develop; that we fear that the bull markets are indeed finished and that bear markets are now full engaged."