Yen

I have been bullish on the Japanese currency since March 2007. What I think defines broad movement in currencies is perception along with broad relative monetary actions. The expansion or contraction of monetary aggregates in one currency versus another is in essence its purest denominator. We show today such a timing model in the yen/usd rate of exchange. Notice that timing simply based on monetary aggregates can be not forgiving for quite some time until the new trend establishes itself.

The chicken or the egg problem revisited, as the market stages an amazing if all too expected comeback: the last thing US consumers need at the start of the all too critical holiday shopping season is their 401(k)'s down by 2%. Yen is getting pounded as all "strong" currencies stage an impressive intraday rally: those rate hikes at the ECB are getting so priced in, Greece default be damned.

The $ PET (Plunge Enforcement Team) will have its work cut out for it tonight and tomorrow, after speculation was rampant that both Japan and Switzerland would intervene in their respective currency markets to halt the dollar's collapse, in essence making Tim Geithner's self-proclaimed job of maintaining a strong dollar that much easier. And even as the Nikkei has terminally decoupled from the US equity market, and is now over 10% down from its 2009 highs, the yen just passed 85, hitting a 14 year high against the dollar and throwing Japan's export economy into a tailspin: that a confirmed deflationary economy is considered a "safe-haven" in today's world should be sufficient to get Keynes boogying to the foxtrot in his grave as his economic gospel falls apart at the seams.

While the logic of how a US economy equates to a weaker dollar escapes those who think before pushing buttons and chasing trends, a glance at intraday currency performance indicate a substantial divergence in then Yen relative to the global "short-dollar" complex. Even as the euro, cable and OZ are powering higher, the yen has been caught in a weak zone, and has been declining all day long despite a stronger than expected US economy (yes, it does make sense...but don't think about it too hard). The oddity in the FX market is compounded when juxtaposed with Japan CDS levels: as of several minutes ago, Japan CDS was trading around 63 (white line on the chart below): a level last seen in April. This begs the question: what does someone know about Japan, and will this weakness translate into weaknesses for other non-US currencies?

The dollar pain continues as the dollar drops below the 90 Yen support level. Surprisingly despite the dollar weakness, there is no capital flow into domestic risky assets (10 Years are well bid). In fact, the bid in HY, the latest risk casualty of bubble psychology, is weakening. Is the carry trade now financing safer/foreign assets? If so, is yield chasing finally over?

The Yen-Euro trade just took a sharp turn lower, pushing the DXY higher. Stocks, as usual, are caught in a vortex of vacuum tubes and chasing the VXV in a circular logic argument. Give them some time to catch up.

A quick look at the USDJPY chart shows that most of the gains due to second derivative unemployment numbers have been wiped out.

The recent fall in the dollar and yen are yet another indicator of investors moving to risk assets. What does this mean for further dollar/yen weakness?

As Zero Hedge has noted before, we think the market was underestimating the severity of the crisis in Japan. As we looked at the numbers, we couldn't help but think that some were being a little optimistic in light of the macro factors at play. At month end, the market reacted sharply to almost consistently bad news coming out from Japan; unemployment, production, retail and the Tankan indices all came out below expectations.

As Zero Hedge has noted before, we think the market was underestimating the severity of the crisis in Japan. As we looked at the numbers, we couldn't help but think that some were being a little optimistic in light of the macro factors at play. At month end, the market reacted sharply to almost consistently bad news coming out from Japan; unemployment, production, retail and the Tankan indices all came out below expectations.

As Zero Hedge has noted before, we think the market was underestimating the severity of the crisis in Japan. As we looked at the numbers, we couldn't help but think that some were being a little optimistic in light of the macro factors at play. At month end, the market reacted sharply to almost consistently bad news coming out from Japan; unemployment, production, retail and the Tankan indices all came out below expectations.