After initially tumbling in the aftermath of the U.S. missile attack on Syria which jolted financial markets, boosting haven assets and temporarily shifting investor focus from today's jobs data , S&P futures have managed to recoup all losses (the Nikkei closed up 0.4% after sliding earlier in the session), with Europe also just fractionally lower and climbing fast.
S&P futures are little changed at 6am ET, trading at 2347.55 and paring an earlier 0.4 percent drop, on the back of the USDJPY ramp which for the second day in a row has emerged alongside the European open, soothing concerns about the Fed's balance sheet reduction and "some" Fed officials warning that stocks have gotten expensive. While Asian stocks fall in early trading, European bourses rebounded from session lows alongside the S&P and USDJPY.
"Markets have made clear which way they want to go, they just haven’t picked which catalyst they’ll blame. The catalyst might be headlines from the Trump-Xi summit, or the ECB’s comments, or it might be the labor report tomorrow, or something else entirely. It doesn’t matter."
The scorching ADP print may have brought another life into the reflation trade this morning, with TSYs dropping and the dollar rising, pushing S&P futures higher, but that may not be sufficient according to SocGen's Kit Juckes.
Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks, S&P futures fall and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks.
Nobuyuki Nakahara, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and an influential former Bank of Japan board member said the BOJ should make a "clean break" from its current policy approach when Kuroda's term ends next spring.
US stocks today are all about watching for sub-index level signs of ‘April Effect’ commencement (as per Friday afternoon’s “Big Picture” note). There will be certain buy-side ‘performance pain’ IF the market was to see a perpetuation of the ‘recent’ April ‘momentum-unwind’ phenomenon.
After the best quarter for US stocks since 2015, global equities have started off Q2 on the right foot, despite caution about the upcoming meeting between President Trump and China's Xi Jinping later this week, and Fed Minutes which are expected to be more hawkish than the FOMC statement.