Now that the Fed appears to have made a grave policy error judging by the market's initial reaction, it is up to the ECB and BOJ to step up (even if as we warned two weeks ago both are running out of monetizable material) and try to preserve some confidence, i.e., halt the selling. Sure enough, that is precisely what happened earlier today when infamous ECB board member and hedge fund leaker Benoit Coeure hinted that if only the market drives 5Y5Y's even lower, i.e., inflation expectations, the ECB will have no choice but to boost QE.
What was one "one and done", just became "none and done" as the Fed will no longer hike in 2015 and will certainly think twice before hiking ahead of the presidential election in 2016. By then the inventory liquidation-driven recession will be upon the US and the Fed will be looking at either NIRP or QE4. Worse, the Fed just admitted it is as, if not more concerned, with the market than with the economy. Worst, suddenly the market no longer wants a... dovish Fed?
Below we show what the latest, September, response is to the question "what investors consider the biggest tail risk" as well as evolution of this answer in the three months preceding. Curiously both #1 and #2 risks, namely "China recession" and "EM Debt Crisis", are an indirect function of the recent and ongoing surge in the dollar, which will likely be exacerbated should the Fed indeed launch its first rate hike cycle in 9 years.
The evening started with disappointing Japanese trade data cross the board - weakest imports, exports, and trade balance in 6 months - which follows the largest selling of Japanese stocks by foreigners ever. China opened with the first rise in margin debt in 6 days, stocks were lower in the pre-open after last night's epic farce ramp. PBOC strengthened the Yuan fix modestly and also injected another CNY 40 billion.
"Every day brings another reason why the Federal Reserve should hold off before raising interest rates... First and foremost there was the recent plunge in stock prices."
Who would have thought that decades of ZIRP, an aborted attempt to hike rates over a decade ago, and the annual monetization of well over 10% of sovereign debt would lead to a toxic debt spiral, regardless of how many "Abenomics" arrows one throws at it? Apparently Standard and Poors just had its a-ha subprime flashbulb moment and moments ago, a little over 4 years after it downgraded the US from its legendary AAA-rating which led to angry phone calls from Tim Geithner and a painful US government lawsuit, downgraded Japan from AA- to A+. The reason: rising doubt Abenomics is working.
We noted earlier the premature exuberation in USDJPY and Nikkei 225 - despite most of the sell-side not expecting anything from The BoJ - and it appears the banks were right and the FOMO traders wrong. The Bank of Japan made no change to its monetary policy (no increased buying, no shift in ETF allocations, and no NIRP for now). BoJ members spewed forth their usual mix of "everything is awesome" and "any quarter now" for the recovery but the market wasn't buying it. That leaves only one thing left to cling to for a "we must buy" crowd - no change today 'guarantees' moar QQE in October.
USDJPY Surges Ahead Of BoJ Statement, China Strengthens Yuan As Washington Folds On Cybersecurity SanctionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2015 21:20 -0400
It appears someone is betting on Kuroda and his cronies to do something later this evening (just like they did as The Fed stopped QE3 back in October) in some wierd monetray policy quid pro quo of - dump Yen all you like as long as the carry trade is alive and well. USDJPY is up from 119.85 to 120.50 (and NKY up over 400 points from US session lows), as perhaps the fact that The BoJ's ETF-buying kitty is running dry at a crucial time. Chinese equity markets are extending yesterday's losses as margin debt declines to a 9 month low (still +62% YoY), injects another CNY50bn and strengthens the Yuan fix for the 3rd day in a row; but in a somewhat embarrassing move, Washington has decided not to impose sanctions on China ahead of Xi's first state visit next week.
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8 years to fix the malfunctioning heart of the world’s financial and legal systems but nothing was actually done... and now the clock is ticking and there is hardly any time left. The number of red lights now blinking at us, largely ignored by those who are supposed to be flying this thing, is growing all the time. It is not that any one of them is a clear harbinger of the end but taken together they paint a dismal and coherent picture – of a system eating itself. The world in which and for which our old system was built is now changing around it in fundamental ways.
A review of the technical condition of the dollar in the days leading up to the FOMC meeting announcement.
Having stepped in a stunning 76% of days to ensure the market closed green, it appears, as Bloomberg reports, time (or money) is running out for Kuroda and the BoJ having spent 78 percent of its allotment as of Sept. 7. "They've only got a little bit left in their quota," notes one trader, "The BOJ had a big role in supporting the market," he implored, "if they don’t increase purchases now, it’s going to be a shock."
Since the “impossible” global panic in 2008, there have been 10 QE’s in Japan but using the numerical standard which has been applied to the Federal Reserve there may have been as many as 22 or more. What none of those have amounted to is an actual and sustainable economic advance; NONE, no matter how you count them. In very simple fact, the idea that central banks “need” to keep doing them in continuous fashion is quite convincing that at the very least they don’t mean what central bankers think they mean, and perhaps worse that the more they are done and to greater extents the more harm that eventually befalls.
At the end of the day, the Fed has failed to implement any meaningful reform. The very issues that caused the 2008 Crisis (excessive debt, particularly in the opaque derivatives markets) are at even worse levels than they were in 2008.