Yen

Goldman Turns Downright Gloomy, Warns Market "Despair" Is Coming, Prepare For A Major Drawdown

As Goldman warns in a note overnight, "Large equity drawdowns often mark the end of an equity cycle and tend to coincide with a recession or financial market/geopolitical shock or a combination, which tend to result in a sharp equity correction driven by a decline in both earnings and valuations." As it turns out, Goldman thinks precisely such a "drawdown" is coming...

Futures Levitate To Session Highs As ECB Enters The Bond Market; Crude Hits $51

In an overnight session dominated by the latest political developments out of the US where Hillary Clinton officially claimed the democratic nomination, the financial newsflow focused on China's trade data, where exports fell 4.1% from a year earlier, in line with expectations, but imports dropped 0.4% from a year earlier, the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014, driven entire by soaring "imports" from Hong Kong - aka capital outflows - which soared by 243% y/y.  The other main news was the official launch of the ECB's corporate bond buying, which helped drive government bonds yields in German to new record lows, and the average yields on investment-grade corporate debt below 1%.

Toyota Issues Bond At A 0.001% Coupon, Japan's Lowest Ever

Overnight a Toyota Motor unit sold yen bonds with the lowest coupon ever for a Japanese company. Toyota Finance Corp issued 20 billion yen ($186 million) of notes at a yield of 0.001%, according to a filing with the nation’s Finance Ministry. That’s the lowest coupon ever for a regular bond by a domestic company that isn’t backed by the government

Is The Market Rational After All?

This is the market we have now: dominated by delusional, irrational central planners with unlimited powers to create money out of thin air to fund their manipulations. Until the central planning madness destroys markets' ability to discover price and allocate capital. Then you end up with Venezuela: a failed state and a broken economy that can no longer feed its people despite the nation's vast oil wealth.

Frontrunning: June 6

  • Yellen faces fine balance on Fed rate hike after job growth tumbles (Reuters)
  • Oil Advances as Abu Dhabi Sees $60 Crude on Shrinking Surplus (BBG)
  • China to submit 'negative list' for U.S. investment treaty talks next week (Reuters)
  • Buoyed by attacks on Trump, Clinton heads into pivotal week (Reuters)
  • Clinton's IT aide keeps email server shrouded in mystery (The Hill)

Futures Flat Following Friday's Jobs Fiasco: All Eyes On Yellen Again

Every ugly jobs report has a silver lining, and sure enough following Friday's disastrous jobs report, global mining and energy companies rallied alongside commodities after the jobs data crushed speculation the Fed would raise interest rates this month.  “The disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday means that a summer Fed rate hike is off the table,” said Jens Pedersen, a commodities analyst at Danske Bank. “That has reversed the upwards trend in the dollar, supporting commodities on a broader basis. The market will look for confirmation in Yellen’s speech later today.”

Why The G7 May Be Hastening Helicopter Money

Faced with a sharply appreciating yen, and lacking G7 support, Japan may need to take extreme measures. More than three years into Abenomics, and with policymakers running out of options on how to reverse the economy's trend, the Bank of Japan may be forced to intervene with unorthodox and untested policy, such as “helicopter money.”

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

The Message From The Collapsing Yield Curve

The FOMC is tightening monetary policy because Fed officials believe that the US economy is showing more signs of sustainable growth with inflation rising back near their 2% target. Yet the yield curve is warning that the Fed’s moves could slow the US economy and halt the desired upturn in the inflation rate. Most worrying for the Fed's narrative is the fact that the yield curve spread on a weekly basis has been highly correlated with the y/y growth rates in both the forward revenues and forward earnings of the S&P 500. The recent narrowing of the spread isn’t a good omen for either of them.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide On Mediocre Manufacturing Data, Yen Surge

Following the latest set of global economic news, most notably a mediocre set of Chinese Official and Caixin PMIs, coupled with a mix of lackluster European manufacturing reports and an abysmal Japanese PMI, European, Asian stocks and U.S. stock index futures have continued yesterday's losses. Oil slips for 4th day, heading for the longest run of declines since April, as OPEC ministers gather in Vienna ahead of a meeting on Thursday to discuss production policy. The biggest winner was the Yen, rising 1%, with the USDJPY tumbling overnight and pushing both the Nikkei 1.6% lower and weighing on US futures.

Japan Is First To Panic; Won’t Be The Last

The most widely-reported result of the recent G-7 meeting was Japan’s attempt to convince the other major economies to admit that a crisis is imminent and take appropriately radical steps. The response seems to have been a bunch of blank stares. What does this mean? In a nutshell, the next phase of the global economic crisis has begun.