Overview of the price action in various currencies, S&P 500, Treasuries and the CRB Index
Empires are not the result of conscious thought; they happen when a group is large enough and powerful enough to impose itself on others. But empires are expensive. They are typically financed by theft and forced tribute. The imperial power conquers... steals... and then requires that its subjects pay “taxes” so that it can protect them. The US never got the hang of it. It conquers. But it loses money on each conquest. How does it sustain itself? With debt.
Japan’s QE was large enough that no one, not even the most stark raving mad Keynesian on the planet, could argue that it wasn’t big enough. Which is why the results are extremely disconcerting for Central Bankers at large.
"We tried not to equivocate too materially yesterday but we hoped we had made it clear that it was our intent to move off of the centre point of neutrality to something a bit more bullishly inclined.... We’ll err bullishly then, albeit not aggressively so. Rather, as we’ve been in the past, we are “pleasantly” bullish and look to add to our positions..." - Dennis Gartman
Dispassionate, non-conspiratorial rant , fact-based high level discussion of the sigificant drivers of the week ahead.
Outlook of the foreign exchange market in the week ahead, with some observations about equities and bonds.
"What is the matter with us? Why can't we - especially our financial leaders - get it? Too much demos? Are we ruled by the Sun, the NY Post, and the Roman circus?Dropping back to earth from 10,000 meters - unfortunately, not high enough to be safe - the Japanese yen and the Dollar Index in general went wild this past week rising from comatose - straight lining almost - seemingly out of nowhere. It wasn't actually the Japanese industrial production coming in at minus 3.3% instead of the forecasted minus 1.2% that was such a surprise. We and many other analysts have been saying the Japanese economy was acting worse than it did in 1997 when they last hiked the sales tax, but the authorities everywhere said nothing, there seem to be no vigilantes of any sort. This is not the 1970's or the 1980's, we don't call an idiotic policy by its name (with money, that is). Zero Hedge can rant on but no one follows them or, more important, does a real analysis of the situation."
That will teach them! Having received full credit for for co-operation and suspending some individuals, Lloyds Bank has been fined the staggeringly wrist-slap-like sum of $105 million for the "manipulation, attempted manipulation, and false reporting of Libor." As WSJ reports, the British bank becomes the seventh financial institution to strike a deal with U.S. and U.K. authorities who are conducting a long running probe into allegations of widespread attempts to manipulate Libor. With no less than the head of the Bank of England calling the bank's actions (mainpulating JPY Libor for at least 2 years) "reprehensible," and the CFTC adds individuals bevahior was a "gross breach of trust." Well we are sure after this they will never manipulate another market ever again...
A look at the price action in the major currencies, US Treasuries and the S&P 500.
Let's take a look at the amount of settlements/fines from various banks and financial institutions around the world since the crisis.
Japanese exports have disappointed expectations for 6 of the last 7 months. June saw exports drop 2.0% (versus an expectation of a rise of 1.0%). This is the first consecutive month drop in exports since Dec 2012 (before Abenomics was unleashed). Despite eysterday's incessant bullshit from various BoJ member about the economy being on track for receovery etc. the adjusted trade balane has now been in deficit for 39 months in a row with June's unadjusted trade-deficit dramatically worse than expected at JPY822billion. For a sense of how much this disaster means to markets that have become so numbed thanks to central bank intervention, USDJPY fell 2 pips on the news... it's not the economy, stupid; it's the BoJ.
?Economics is like a Monet painting. Stand too close and all you see is a bunch of seemingly random paint strokes. Back up a few steps and an image emerges. The painting of bubblenomics started with the Plaza Accord, September 1985, where five nations agreed to manipulate the dominant currencies at the time. Japan enjoyed a 50% devaluation of the US$ vs the yen, artificially enriching its citizens so they could travel the world in busloads with eighty pounds of cameras around their necks. The consequences of that bubble have yet to be corrected. Based on healthy guidelines, the price of real estate is far too expensive today, or, more precisely, the cost of housing is too high but we may need another crisis before the market will wake up to the needed changes. In the meantime, money printing and hype will continue.
A dispassionate look at the issues and events shaping the investment climate in the week ahead.
Near-term outlook for the dollar, without resorting to inflammatory and unproven claims.
While we have again and again explained why Abenomics is ultimately doomed as you simply cannot print your way to prosperity (a message The Fed appears to be discovering rapidly), when Goldman Sachs unleashes an Abenomics-bashing piece, one has to wonder just what options Abe has left as economic data starts to collapse (and approval ratings drop just as fast). Simply put, as we concluded before, "Monetary debasement does NOT result in an economic recovery, because no nation can force another to pay for its recovery... Eventually the monetary debasement raises all costs and this initial benefit to exporters vanishes. Then the country is left with a depleted capital base and a higher price level. What a great policy!"