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The Trump administration continues to sabre-rattle at global powers and threatens to disrupt the status-quo of international relations. Comments in just 24-hours by Donald Trump and his team have included attacking an Ivy League university, a nuclear power and two of the United States’ key trading partners.

US Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls Following A Surprise-Filled Asian Session

European stocks and S&P futures rose modestly ahead of January US payrolls data, along with the dollar, while Asian shares dropped after China returned from a week-long holiday. Bonds slid, oil rose while the JGB intervened in the bond market to prevent a bond rout, in one of two major surprises during the Asian session.

Spot The Intervention (Bank Of Japan Edition)

We warned earlier "the market would test the BoJ," and sure enough Kuroda and his 'lost boys' answered the market's question by intervening aggressively (offering to buy an unlimited amount of bonds) to rescue what was a rapidly escalating collapse in Japanese government bonds.

Frontrunning: February 1

  • Fed Unlikely to Make Its Next Rate Move Wednesday (WSJ)
  • Conservative Gorsuch nominated to top court (Reuters)
  • Gorsuch Is Critic of Legal Doctrine That Bolsters Executive Authority (WSJ)
  • The 4 Rules That Will Explain Neil Gorsuch’s Confirmation Fight (Politico)
  • Trump’s Yen Comments ‘Wide of the Mark,’ Says Japan FX Chief (Reuters)
  • A barb at Germany puts Trump administration on collision course with EU (Reuters)

Futures Fall On Rising Trump Uncertainty; Europe Stocks Rise As Euro-Area Inflation Surges

European bonds fell and stocks rose led by banks and retailers as surging inflation data prompted investors to switch into reflationary assets even as speculation about ECB tapering has returned. Asian stocks and US equity futures declined. The Yen and gold advanced after Trump’s firing of the U.S. acting attorney general added to concern over the unpredictability of decisions in the new administration.

Gartman: "Our Propensity Is To Find Modest Long Exposure Today"

"Our “net” equity market exposure then is relatively minor but given the longer term trend and given the minor correction to the downside over the course of the past three or four sessions, accompanied by rather obviously declining volume on the exchanges, our propensity is to find modest long exposure today."

Global Stocks, Futures Slide On US Protectionism Worries Following Trump Travel Chaos

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures all drop after traders were left with a sour taste from the potential fallout of Donald Trump’s order halting some immigration and ahead of central bank decisions from the U.S. and Japan.  Markets in Hong Kong, China, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam are all shut due to the Lunar New Year public holiday.

What's Behind The Collapse In Global Exports?

Global export of goods (priced in US dollars) has collapsed in Japan, the EU, and emerging markets, since their recovery highs following the great recession. The US is the best of the lot, but US exports of goods are down substantially as well. What’s behind the move? Is it protectionism? Currency related?