Yield Curve

Stocks, Sterling Rise As "Brexit" Fears Forgotten; Dollar Drops Ahead Of Yellen Speech

Tuesday's overnight price action has been a continuation of yesterday's Brexit relief rally, as investors focused on the two latest polls favorable to Remain in Thursday's referendum (while ignoring the YouGov poll which gave Leave a small lead), and hoping the doom and gloom by George Soros will convince the undecideds to vote against Leaving. As a result, global stocks continued their advance while pound extending the biggest rally since 2008.

Soros – A Rudimentary Theory Of Bubbles

"...financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. The degree of distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times, it is quite pronounced. When there is a significant divergence between market prices and the underlying reality, there is a lack of equilibrium conditions. I have developed a rudimentary theory of bubbles along these lines..."

Global Stocks Soar, Pound Surges Most Since 2008 As Brexit Odds Tumble

Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures.  Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.

There Is An Alternative To Yellen's Keynesian Bubble - Stockman Rages "Abolish The Fed"

The approximate hour Janet Yellen spent wandering in circles and spewing double talk during her presser yesterday was time well spent. When the painful ordeal of her semi-coherent babbling was finally over, she had essentially proved that the Fed is attempting an impossible task. And better still, that the FOMC should be abolished. The alternative is real simple. It’s called price discovery on the free market; it’s the essence of capitalism.

Will Brexit Give The US Negative Interest Rates?

One of the oddest things in this increasingly odd world is the spread of negative interest rates everywhere but in the US. One answer is that the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are buying up all the high-quality (and increasing amounts of low-quality) debt in their territories, thus forcing down rates, while the US Fed has stopped its own bond buying program. The other answer is that this is just one of those periodic anomalies that persist for a while and then get arbitraged away. And Brexit might be the catalyst for that phase change.

Bond Yields Crash Below Feb 'Flash-Crash' Lows As US Stocks Lose 2016 Gains

10Y Treasury yields just broke below February's flash-crash lows and ar enow trading back to their lowest since August 2012 with the yield curve also collapsing (2s30s down 6bps to 168bps - lowest since Jan 08). US equity markets are also tanking, led by banks - as contagion spreads - crashing back to unchanged year-to-date.

16% Of Europe's IG Corporate Bonds Now Yield Below 0%

In addition to negative yielding sovereign debt, it's now time to also look at corporate debt, because the amount of euro-denominated investment-grade corporate bonds with negative yields has tripled over the last six weeks, a move accelerated by their inclusion in the European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme. Specifically around 16%, or 440 billion euros, of the 2.8 trillion euros of these bonds now yield less than zero, up from around 5% at the start of May, according to Tradeweb data.

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 2

In today’s world of flexible just-in-time production, hours-based labor scheduling and gig-based employment patterns, there is really no such standardized labor unit as a “job”. In that context, a simple paint-by-the-numbers exercise demonstrates the foolishness of the Fed’s obsession with hitting a quantitative “full employment” target.

European Banks Are Crashing

From Deutsche Bank to Credit Suisse and from Barclays to Banco Popolare, the European banking system is getting battered this week with today's plunge the biggest in 4 months...