Yield Curve

FX Week Ahead: Central Bank Credibility Slips Yet Again, Fed Up Next

The stand out risk event of the week is clearly the FOMC meeting and announcement on Wednesday, and the focus will be on whether the Fed are ready to balance out the odds of another 25bp hike on the table for this year. We know they are more comfortable in moving having prepared the market first, although we are close to 50/50 again, but only just. 

"You Should Take The Fed At Their Word"

"We think they’re going to be... getting more worried about some of the negative consequences of QE, the fact that it encourages risk taking and may create some issues for the banks...”

Oh Canada - Reflections On An Economic Experiment

"...the real problem is with the Fed’s unwillingness to surprise markets. They are convinced that moves should be telegraphed well in advance.. the Fed is a slave to market expectations...Well, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz is willing to take the other side of this view. Arguing that in normal times, there is no need for such guidance..."

Is It (Seasonally) Time To Turn To Steepeners?

"I am a big, huge, Alaskan Peninsular grizzly of a bear when it comes to fixed income, but sometimes I need to find ways to express that view without just putting it all on the dark side. "