Yield Curve

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Neil Howe Warns The 'Professional Class' Is Still In Denial Of The Fourth Turning





"The world has fundamentally shifted over the last decade, especially since we’ve emerged from the Great Recession... But the professional class has been very slow to understand what is going on, not just quantitatively but qualitatively in a new generational configuration that I call the Fourth Turning. They don’t accept the new normal. They keep insisting, just two or three years out there on the horizon, that the old normal will return – in GDP growth, in housing starts, in global trade. But it doesn’t return."

 
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"Billions Lost"





"While buybacks work great during bull market advances, as individuals willfully overlook the fundamentals in hopes of further price gains, the eventual collision of reality with fantasy has been a nasty event..."

 
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Treasury Yield Curve Plunges To Flattest Since 2007, Financials Follow





For the first time since 2007, the spread between 2Y and 10Y US treasury yields has to 100bps. While not inverted, which the status quo maintains means there cannot be a recession, the bond market is flashing ominous signs for both the economy and the US financial system...

 
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If It Looks Like A Recession, And Smells Like A Recession...





Then we must be "peddling fiction..."

 
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The Economy In Pictures: We've Seen This All Before





“Are we closer to an economic recession or a continued expansion?” With the Fed hiking interest rates, and talking a tough game of continued economic strength, the risk of a “policy error” has risen markedly in recent months. The markets, falling inflation indicators, and plunging interest rates are all suggesting the same.

 
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Either Banks Are Cheap... Or The Market's Gonna Crash





Simply put, either large cap Financials are cheap, or the entire U.S. equity market is still overpriced. Their precipitous decline year to date means markets fear they are both the transmission mechanism for a global slowdown/recession to come and a primary victim of that event.

 
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Treasury Yield Curve Crashes To 8-Year Lows, Financials Follow





The US Treasury yield curve has plunged further today (2s10s -5bps at 107bps)  breaking to its flattest since January 2008. The curve has been flattening since The Fed began to taper QE3 and as financials begin to catch down to that ugly reality, one wonders just what The Fed can do about this...

 
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Crunch Time?





It seems monetary policy is exhausted and the next exogenous lever to pull would be political fiscal initiatives. If/when they fail to stimulate demand, there would be only one avenue left – currency devaluation. If/when confidence in the mightiest currency wanes, we would expect the US dollar to be devalued too - not against other fiat currencies, but against a relatively scarce Fed asset.

 
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Bank Of America Admits The U.S. May Already Be In A Recession





"The US Treasury curve is still steep by historical standards. Taken at face value, this may suggest recession odds are small. However, we argue this logic is flawed because the curve is structurally steep when the Fed Funds rate is close to zero. When adjusted for the proximity of rates to zero, the curve may already be inverted and therefore may already be priced for a recession./// Implied recession odds are as high as 64% if the adjusted OIS curve is used"

 
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Weekend Reading: The Awakening





"More monetary stimulus, wherever it is in the world, isn’t the answer for a global economy still trying to find a new growth path. Pay attention to bonds and ignore the sirens of the stock market."

 
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