Yield Curve

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Near Record High After Minutes Fail To Spark Dollar Rally

One day after the FOMC Minutes guided to a rate hike "fairly soon", but not soon enough in the eyes of the market, the dollar has posted minimal gains, while global stocks held near record highs on Thursday; S&P futures were fractionally in the green to start the session; crude climbed after API showed U.S. stockpiles fell. US and euro zone government bond yields fell as European political fears faded.

Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks, Dollar Drop On Fed Warning

March rate hike odds dropped very marginally from before The Fed minutes (from 38% to 34%) but there is a great reaction in capital markets with stocks disappointed by The Fed's warnings and bonds and bullion bid...

FOMC Minute Hint At Hike "Fairly Soon", But Warn Trump Policies May "Not Materialize", VIX Too Low

"...the recent increase in equity prices might in part reflect investors’ anticipation of a boost to earnings from a cut in corporate taxes or more expansionary fiscal policy, which might not materialize.... They also expressed concern that the low level of implied volatility in equity markets appeared inconsistent with the considerable uncertainty attending the outlook for such policy initiatives."

Frontrunning: February 21

  • Global Stocks and Bond Yields Rise (WSJ)
  • Despite Dissents on White House Policy, Mattis Holds Sway (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Travel Ban Won’t Hit the U.S. Economy, At Least This Year (BBG)
  • Pundit Brings ‘Global Jihadist Movement’ Theory to White House (WSJ)
  • HSBC Plunges After Missing Profit Estimates on Revenue Drop (BBG)
  • Euro-Area Economic Recovery Broadens as France Outpaces Germany (BBG)

Fischer Admits Fed Is Clueless About What Happens Next

"There is quite significant uncertainty about what's actually going to happen, I don’t think anyone quite knows what’s going to come out of the process which involves both the administration and Congress in the deciding of fiscal policy and a variety of other things."

Grexit Fears Loom As Greek Yield Curve Crushed To Brexit Extremes

Slowly but surely the "whatever-it-takes"-protected markets are waking up to the latest round of Grexit fear as Troika disagreements are once again pitting ongoing greater depression economics against drachmatization for the desperate Greeks. The Greek yield curve has inverted dramatically, with 2Y yields topping 10% as risk is worse since Brexit...