Yield Curve

Abe Advisor Says It's Time To Pull The Plug On QE

Nobuyuki Nakahara, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and an influential former Bank of Japan board member said the BOJ should make a "clean break" from its current policy approach when Kuroda's term ends next spring.

Breslow: "The Pain Trades Are Giving Traders Headaches"

The Fed has been hiking. Their speeches have been consistently optimistic on the traction that’s been achieved toward reaching their mandate. And more, rather than less, portraying a board on the same page. Yet the pain trade keeps traders reacting much more to any perceived dovishness.

Hedge Fund CIO: "What If The 'Trump Earnings Surge' Was Just An Illusion?"

"Why is the yield curve flattening? Why is loan demand declining? Why is consumer confidence at historic highs while retailer stocks are getting demolished? What happens if he can’t cut corporate taxes? What happens if we’ve recalibrated earnings to a future that was just an illusion?"

Maybe The Recovery Wasn't Real After All

For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking through the Fed’s 2% target, and most measures of consumer sentiment were bordering on euphoric. Then it all started to evaporate...

Why China Is About To Bring The Global Reflation Rally To A Halt

It was China, whose gargantuan credit expansion, monetary easing and "Shanghai Accord" in early 2016 unleashed the global reflationary wave which central banks are currently mistaking for "growth." It is only appropriate that China will be the catalyst that ends it.

Two Fed Presidents Warn Markets Getting "Frothy", Valuations "May Come Down"

In what was the clearest sign to date that the Fed is targeting the stock market bubble with its rate hikes, today not one but two Fed presidents warned that the market is getting "a little rich", that "valuations may be a little frothy", and that the record "wealth to income ratio is a reason to keep raising rates."

"Trump Trade 1.0" Is Over - Why It Will Take Some Time To Ship Version 2.0

Do not fear: there will be a “Trump Trade 2.0” at some point this year. Either valuations will retreat to the point where they reflect the reality of a legislatively-driven set of catalysts, or Washington will (in its own time) deliver on a pro-growth agenda as the market treads water. Just remember: Washington doesn’t work in New York minutes.

5-Year Treasury Yield Tumbles Below 2.00% As Short-Squeeze Picks Up

Five-year Treasury yields have tumbled back below 2.00% to the lowest levels in almost three-weeks, extending the drop amid the weakest economic growth period for a rate-hike since 1980. With net positioning near record high shorts, and everyone and their pet rabbit sure that a breakout above 2.15% was 'inevitable', we wonder what happens next.

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide Spooked By G20 Protectionist Shift; Dollar Drops For 4th Day

Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism.