Yield Curve

Crude Declines As OPEC Deal Doubts Emerge; Futures Roll Over

After oil soared over 5% yesterday, its biggest jump since April, overnight skepticism and doubts have emerged about the viability and compliance with the deal, coupled with a boost in production by non-OPEC producers, and as a result WTI has dipped back under $47, down 0.5%, suggesting that the OPEC surge may be short-lived, and modestly pressuring US equity futures.

No Need For Yield Curve Inversion (There Is Already Much Worse Indicated)

The bond market selloff of the past month or so, which has apparently fizzled just as Alan Greenspan was assuring the world it was only getting started (once more preserving for posterity how little he knows about bonds, interest rates, and money, as if knowing anything about any of those would be useful to a central banker). There is no bond market riddle. As each curve gets squashed by righteous pessimism, they together indicate nothing good about the near-term future.

Someone Has Quietly Put On "The Trump Hedge"

As a very observant Charlie McElligott of RBC points out, lost in a sleepy Friday morning session, there was a sneaky trade in November Fed Funds Futs (FFX), where somebody bot 9962 Calls in what was essentially a ‘Trump Hedge’ lotto-ticket that pays in the event that the FOMC were to LOWER the Fed Funds rate…thus, quite notable. 

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Traveling Circus

After Wednesday’s policy statements by the Fed and Bank of Japan, a harsh light is being shined on the incredible nature of their communications. It would be wise in the current environment to structure investment portfolios with a pro-volatility bias.

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.