Yield Curve

Warning Signs

Like gasoline, all of these warnings are inert and, other than smelling really bad, are harmless... Well, that is until your cousin “Randy” shows up and decides to have a quick smoke.

Another Week Of Huge Outflows From Active Managers, Huger Inflows To ETFs

The highly compensated world of active fund managers continued to disintegrate before their eyes in the last week, when even as overall cash continued to flood into equities for a total of $14.5 billion, the 11th consecutive week of inflows, this was entirely due to allocations to ETFs, which saw $19.7 billion in inflows, the highest weekly amount YTD, offset by $5.1 billion in outflows from actively managed funds.

Global Stocks Soar To Record Highs On "Dovish" Fed, Dutch Vote

World stock indexes surged to record highs on Thursday while the dollar traded close to a one-month low after the Federal Reserve hiked U.S. interest rates but signaled no pick-up in the pace of tightening, while the Dutch elections were broadly interpreted as a drop in support for Europe's anti-establishment powers.

Risk-Ignorance Reaches 23 Year High As Short Interest Hits Record Low

Investors are willing to pay more for a given level of risk than at any time since 1994 and short interest has collapsed to record lows... "if The Fed follows through on its convictions, look for a flat yield curve and a recession to wipe out 50% of equity prices for the third time in the past seventeen years."

Japan Begins QE Tapering: BOJ Hints It May Purchase 18% Less Bonds Than Planned

Japan appears to have quietly commenced its own monteary tightening because, as Bloomberg calculates looking at the BOJ's latest bond-purchase plan, the central bank is on track to miss an annual target, by a substantial margin, prompting investor concerns that the BOJ has commenced its own "stealth tapering."

What The Hell Is Going On? - Part 3

"I’ve tried my best to seek truth, reveal government deception, and generally be a thorn in the side of the establishment. Based on Mencken’s definition, I’m a dangerous man to the government, who has spread discontent among those capable of thinking things out for themselves. You may not realize it, but the war has already begun. No matter what the hell is going on, I sure hope the good guys win."

It's 1994 Again: Why Albert Edwards Expects An Imminent "Bond Market Bloodbath"

"Accelerated Fed rate hikes will cause tremors in the Treasury bond markets, forcing rates up, most especially in the 2 year – just like 1994. But as yet another central bank-inspired global recession unfolds, I  believe US 10y bond yields will ultimately converge with Japanese and European yields well below zero"

Crude Plunges Below $49, Dragging Markets Lower; All Eyes On Draghi

While trader attention will soon be focused on the ECB and any potential tightening hints from the central bank, a more pressing development as US traders walk in today, will be ongoing collapse in WTI, which after crashing 5.5% yesterday, has tumbled more than 2% this morning, sliding not only below $50 for the first time since December 1, but also dropped under $49, as a near record number of net long spec positions suddenly rushes to unwind their exposure.

"Anything Can Happen" - Is Now The Time To 'Fade The Fed'?

"...don’t misconstrue this statement as a forecast the Fed will not hike next week. A March hike is by far and away the most probable outcome. Yet, the risk reward from a long position in the April expiry still makes sense."