Yield Curve

"The Fed Has Mastered Market Manipulation" - Bill Gross Explains Why He Is Not A "Broken Clock"

"The problem with Cassandras, such as Gross and Jim Grant and Stanley Druckenmiller, among a host of others, is that we/they can be compared to a broken watch that is right twice a day but wrong for the other 1,438 minutes. But believe me: This watch is ticking because of high global debt and out-of-date monetary/fiscal policies that hurt rather than heal real economies. Sooner rather than later, Yellen’s smooth shot from the fairway will find the deep rough."

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Rise As Treasury Yields See Biggest Monthly Jump In Over A Year

The August market doldrums were on display on the last day of the month as S&P futures were fractionally lower on non-existent volume, while both Europe and Asia were modestly in the green; ten-year Treasury yields headed for the biggest monthly jump in more than a year while the dhe dollar gained for a sixth day against the yen in the longest winning streak since March. European stocks advanced for a second day, adding to a monthly gain as oil trimmed its advance in the best month since April.

An Academic Tries To Explain The Yield Curve, Says "Gloom" Is Irrational

To the academics, “gloom” is irrational and thus requires translation into math to become somehow backwards explanatory for why the economy that “should be” isn’t. In the actual economy, “gloom” is properly called reality. In this world, people know all-too-well that jobs disappeared during and after the Great Recession and never came back. No amount of asset price manipulation can possibly make up that difference. This math is finally welcoming economists to that long run, a place their patron saint, Keynes, said didn’t exist.

"Good News Is Bad News" Again - Confidence Surge Sparks Stock, Oil Purge

The hghest current expectations confidence since August 2007 has sparked a moment of turmoil in the markets as USD strength sends stocks and oil reeling. Gold is down modestly and Treasuries are bid with the long-end outperforming (as the yield curve flattens to yet another cycle low)...

European Banks Prepare For "Economic Nuclear Winter"

While some European bank stocks have scrambled back some of their plunge losses post-Brexit, the current uncertainty over when the U.K. will start the process of quitting the EU has banks on tenterhooks, with a source telling CNBC that banks are "preparing for an economic nuclear winter situation." With negative rates (and a plunging yield curve) banks' earnings are under threat but the concerns over the potential for contagious European break-up and collapse of the pound after Article 50 is signed is existential.

US Bank Stocks Surge To 2016 Highs Despite Collapse In Yield Curve To 9 Year Lows

US bank stocks are exuberantly listening to mainstream media pushers as the hopes of a double-rate-hike-rainbow has sent S&P Financials to their highest since Dec 2015. However, despite the rise in implied rate-hike odds, the Treasury curve is utterly collapsing (which is what really matters for NIM) with 2s30s now at its lowest since 2007...

Treasury Vol Crashes To 2016 Lows

With all eyes focused on the collapse in equity risk over the last few months, it seems Treasuries have been ignored. This week has seen intraday trading ranges for 10Y Treasury yields crash to 2016 lows. The last time the volatility was this compressed was early June, which pre-empted a major surge in risk, slide in stocks, and drop in rates...

85% Of Wall Street Expects a "Dovish Hike Signal" From Yellen Tomorrow

Earlier this week, Citi's head of G10 FX strat Steven Englander conducted a survey among 350 participants asking them what they expect from Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole speech. According to the vast majority, or 85% of the respondents, Yellen will lean toward one 2016 rate hike with hiking risk “overwhelmingly” in December even as September hiking risk is seen as “modestly underpriced."