Yield Curve

What Do Rate Hikes Have To Do With Crashing Libor-OIS Spreads?

Since peaking last September at 44bps, 3m Libor-OIS has seemingly collapsed each time the market got excited about higher rates. In fact, whenever the fed funds implied probability of a rate hike jumped just prior to an upcoming FOMC meeting, a drastic narrowing of Libor-OIS ensued.  What rate hikes have to do with Libor-OIS spreads

Is A Chinese Recession Imminent? Yield Curve Inverts For First Time Ever

While China growth has been slowing, and monetary conditions tightening, few (if any) have predicted any prolonged deflation (let alone a recession), yet overnight - for the first time ever - the $1.7 trillion Chinese bond market inverted, flashing a warning signal to the world that something is wrong.

Betting Against A June Rate Hike? Something's Going On

We noted yesterday that the recent trend of increased volumes into Eurodollar future out-months was 'odd' but the sudden surge in interest in Eurodollar calls (vs puts) suggests more than just a few prop bets are being placed on the fact that The Fed does not hike rates in June.

Bill Blain: "Something Is Happening In Europe And We Don’t Know What It Is…"

"A French 30yr is in the works, Italy and Belgium are both looking, while other rumours say the EFSF might be in the frame. Fascinating stuff, but with the ECB already taking the metal off the QE pedal, what happens when the market distortion stops? Where do bond prices go when the ECB stops buying... Something is happening and we don’t know what it is..."

BOE Keeps Rate At 0.25%, Warns Rates May Rise Faster In Case Of "Smooth" Brexit

"...the Committee judges that, if the economy follows a path broadly consistent with the May central projection, then monetary policy could need to be tightened by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than the very gently rising path implied by the market yield curve underlying the May projections."

Crushed Vol Boosts Dollar, Commodities; Futures Flat

Asian stocks declined, while European stocks rose to the highest since 2015, led by a rebound in commodities and basic resource stocks. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed at 2,395 - just shy of all time highs - as investors focused on corporate earnings after the French election, while the VIX hovered near its lowest level since 1993.

Fasanara Capital Explains How The "Fake Market" Works In One Chart

"‘Fake Markets’ are defined as markets where the magnitude and duration of artificial flows from global Central Banks or passive investment vehicles have managed to overwhelm and narcotize data-dependency and macro factors. A stuporous state of durable, un-volatile over-valuation, arrested activity, unconsciousness produced by the influence of artificial money flows... The higher it goes, the higher it can go, as more swathes of private investors are pulled in. The more violently it can subsequently bust."

Stocks Dazed After Trump NAFTA Flop, Tax Plan Disappointment; ECB Looms

European shares are lower, pressured by disappointing results by Deutsche Bank and ending a six-session gain, as Asian equities and S&P futures were little changed after a record-setting rally in world stocks which pushed the MSCI World index to over $50 trillion yesterday, fizzled after Trump released unconvincing tax cut plans prompting traders to "sell the news" while caution set in as the ECB met.

Seven Charts For Bullish Investors To Ignore

Wall Street still exudes widespread optimism that 2017 will provide another year of solid gains for stocks amid stable albeit unspectacular economic growth and only gentle interest rate rises. However, as The FT details, all is not well in reality, and the following seven charts will hearten investors of a more bearish persuasion...