200k aging Republican bikers, a decent percentage likely unemployed. More than 200k “Liberal” boomer democrats, many also unemployed. Another 50-200k millennial anti-Trump protestors. What could go wrong?
'Trump Time' - Let the games begin - Massive political uncertainty – President’s conflict with the CIA – ‘Strong dollar policy’ to end as U.S. has $120 trillion plus debt – Trump inherits Bush and Obama’s humongous debt
"All eyes will be on the content and style of Trump's inauguration speech," Morgan Stanley's Hans Redeker wrote in a note. "The more 'Presidential' this speech comes across, the better the outcome for markets." And as BonY added, "If Trump ramps up the rhetoric the market will be concerned about building long dollar positions."
In a "strange move", China cut the RRR for its five biggest banks by 1% to 16%, temporarily lowering the amount of money that they must hold as reserves to relieve pressure in its financial system as demand for cash surges ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Amid a weakening yuan and a tumbling Bitcoin (amid crackdowns on 'virtual' capital outflows from China), Chinese money is moving to bullion as investors seek an alternative to the 'managed' fiat paper offered by the PBOC. In the week through Monday, China attracted $52 million, the biggest inflow into commodity-linked exchange-traded funds of all countriestracked by Bloomberg.
"There are some really unexpected things happening with the Trump administration and there are no doubt a lot more people paying attention to Twitter at 2am in the night... We are operating in a very different environment where markets are reacting and adapting to changes that have not been seen for a good decade or more."
With liquidity still scarce, moments ago on Thursday morning, the PBOC added another net injection of 190 billion consisting of 100Bn in 7-day repo and 150BN in 28-day repos, offset by 60bn yuan in previous loans maturing. As a result, the PBOC has injected a net of 1.035 trillion yuan via reverse repos so far this week, an all time high.
China has taken "measures" to prevent market selloffs this week, Bloomberg reports, as President Xi Jinping’s appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos puts Asia’s largest economy in the global spotlight, and its immediate reaction has been to manipulate its stock market.
"The deep state" is shorthand for a force within Washington that is able to guide the US' ship of state over periods of time longer than presidential terms, and at times despite the stated intentions of elected officials. If Trump has indeed embroiled himself in a conflict with this entity, then, what does that mean for his policy plans and for the post-Inauguration markets?
One can probably put the time of death of the Trumpflation rally as 11:47pm on Monday night. That's when the WSJ published the latest excerpt of its Friday interview with Donald Trump, in which the president-elect himself said the dollar was already “too strong.” and said “our companies can’t compete with [China] now because our currency is too strong. And it’s killing us.”
Stocks, bond yields and the dollar fell on Tuesday, while gold rose as investors drew in their horns in response to comments on the dollar from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and ahead of a speech on Brexit from British Prime Minister Theresa May.
In a speech that struck all the right platitudes with this pro-globalization audience, Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend Davos, slammed protectionism, voicing his support for free trade, and saying he has no intent to boost China's competitiveness through Yuan devaluation.
Sterling fell, equities slid, Chinese markets got a helping government intervention hand again, and gold climbed over concerns U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is prepared to lead Britain out of the European Union’s single market and as the U.S. President-elect suggested other countries could break from the bloc.
"Shorting has been hard this year ... So despite what I think, we are beginning to close parts of our short book. We have largely exited airline related shorts. We have also closed staple shorts, as they were largely there to protect against a fall in yields, which they did to a degree. We have also closed many developed financial shorts to make some space for Chinese financial shorts."