"If one is looking for key technical indicators to ring the bell on the cyclical bull market- maybe it has just rung loud and clear. A renminbi devaluation will only sever an already badly frayed safety rope..."
When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament.
With China now closed for all intent and purpose for a week as Golden Week arrives, it appears The PBOC wanted to leave the market a message. Clear and direct intervention in offshore Yuan has ripped it 800 pips higher in the last 2 days to its highest since mid-December and stronger than onshore Yuan. However, while PBOC may have won this battle, surging CDS suggest the currency war is far from over.
US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.
"... if China FX reserves data is better than expected, we think a bear market rally is likely to be vicious."
“If some fund manager in Texas is saying that your currency is dramatically overvalued, you shouldn’t care on a $10 trillion economy with $34 trillion in your banks. I have, call it a billion - it’s so small it should be irrelevant and yet somehow it’s really relevant.”
Some people say that gold is dead. They point to deflationary pressures and a bear market that started back in September of 2011. The bulls have been wrong for years; however, that may be about to change…
Do you remember when Greenspan was befuddled when natural market rates wouldn't obey his commands in the previous decade? Well, I sure hope Yellen does. Even if she doesn't the high yield financed US energy probably won't be around long enough to find out.
Its deja vu all over again in the land of speculative Yuan shorts today. With Golden Week looming, it appears PBOC is stomping on the throat of speculative shorts in the offshore Yuan with another gross intervention. The last 2 days have seen "someone" panic-buying Yuan higher by a stunning 800 pips, smashing CNH back to 3-week highs when then PBOC last intervened in size...
After yesterday's torrid, chaotic moves in the market, where an initial drop in stocks was quickly pared and led to a surge into the close after a weaker dollar on the heels of even more disappointing US data and Bill Dudley's "serious consequences" speech sent oil soaring and put the "Fed Relent" scenario squarely back on the table, overnight we have seen more global equity strength on the back of a weaker dollar, even if said weakness hurt Kuroda's post-NIRP world and the Nikkei erased virtually all losses since last Friday's surprising negative rate announcement. Oil and metals also rose piggybacking on the continued dollar weakness as the word's most crowded trade was suddenly shaken out.
With every Tom, Dick, and Harry hedge fund manager now taking on The People's Bank of China (in various ways), it is no surprise that the spread between offshore Yuan and onshore Yuan blew out to its widest in 3 weeks this morning. They are not getting it all their way for now though.
With just one more day of trading before China's lunar new year and Sping Festival Golden Week holiday, it appears The PBOC wants to flex its intervention muscles. By strengthening the Yuan fix by 0.16% (the most in 2 months) to 1-month highs, it seems China is trying to send a message before it practically closes for a week...
A report on China's stock market crash authored last year by former senior officials, including former central bank vice governor Wu Xiaoling, said Chinese retail investors are short-sighted, have a weak investment philosophy and a herd mentality.
"We must break you" speculators...