Yuan

For the third year in a row (since the crisis) average pay at private companies in China surge by greater than double digits - far outstripping GDP growth. 2012 saw a 17.1% nominal rise in average wages for private companies to Yuan 28,752 per annum (still 9% after inflation) but dispersion remains high with "significant gap among regions, industries and specific jobs in some sectors." The continued rise in wages, as the Wall Street Journal notes, is likely to put further pressure on an already pinched manufacturing and construction sector (which accounts for over 41% of all Chinese employment) especially in low-end and labor-intensive positions. With slowing growth (demand) and rising costs (labor, energy), the profitability of Chinese companies is increasingly tenuous and only hindered by potential actions of the central bank.

• Mine union threatens to bring South Africa to 'standstill' (Reuters)
• Russia Raises Stakes in Syria (WSJ) - as reported here yesterday 
• Japan buys into US shale gas boom (FT)
• Bill Gates Retakes World’s Richest Title From Carlos Slim (BBG) - so he can afford a Tesla now?
• China Wages Rose Sharply in 2012 (WSJ)
• Regulators Target Exchanges As They Ready Record Fine (WSJ)
• Citi Takes Some Traders Off Bloomberg Chat Tool (WSJ)
• After Google, Amazon to be grilled on UK tax presence (Reuters)
• Apple CEO Cook to Propose Tax Reform for Offshore Cash (BBG)
• French, German politicians to pressure Google on tax (Reuters)
• Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush (BBG)
• A stretched Samsung chases rival Apple's suppliers (Reuters)

Parasites must balance their drive to maximize what they extract from their host with the risk of losing everything by killing their host. This is the dilemma of the parasitic partnership of the central state and financial Elites everywhere: to extract the maximum possible in debt payments and taxes without sparking rebellion and revolution. The 30 million whose labor funds the parasitic status quo don't have to rebel; they simply have to stop going to work, stop starting enterprises, stop being productive. They just have to tire of being the host, tire of being debt-serfs, tire of being tax donkeys. The trick to suppressing revolution is to keep debt-tax serfdom bearable. The parasitic Elites are keeping the host going, but at a high cost in resiliency. Let's see how long the host lasts once a crisis hits.

• As scandals mount, White House springs into damage control (Reuters)
• Glencore Xstrata chairman ousted in surprise coup (Reuters), former BP CEO Tony Hayward appointed as interim chairman (WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase asks Bloomberg for data records (Telegraph)
• Platts Retains Energy Trader Confidence Amid Price-Fix Probe (BBG)
• Syrian Internet service comes back online (PCWorld)
• Japan Q1 growth hits 3.5% on Abe impact although fall in business investment clouds optimism for recovery (FT)
• Soros Joins Gold-Stake Cuts Before Bear Market Drop (BBG)
• Factory Ceiling Collapses in Cambodia (WSJ)
• Sony’s $100 Billion Lost Decade Supports Loeb Breakup (BBG)
• Snags await favourite for Federal Reserve job (FT)
• James Bond’s Pinewood Turned Down on $300 Million Plan (BBG)

Fake iPhones - who cares? Fake Gucci handbags - spread the wealth? but fake condoms is going too far. As China Daily reports, a underground workshop producing fake brand-name condoms was busted after police found clues on an online marketplace. Police confiscated more than 2 million bogus condoms labeled Jissbon, Durex and Contex. While a knock-off prophylactic is priced at 1 yuan (16 cents), it costs less than 0.2 yuan to produce. In February, police noticed that prices of brand-name condoms were unreasonably low on one online store, and they bought some products (just to check we are sure). As Bloomberg adds, in April, public health authorities from Ghana impounded more than 1 million substandard condoms, many of them imported from China. “When we tested these condoms, we found that they are poor quality, can burst in the course of sexual activity, and have holes which expose the users to unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease." Another unintended consequence of the Fed's exported inflation?

The great American manufacturing renaissance? Maybe not. But China is losing the low-wage edge.

It seems the S&P 500's recent strength is somehow comforted by the fact that the USD is riding high on its cleanest dirty shirt meme at 34 month highs but unfortunately for the Chinese (and their practical peg to the USD), things are a little less fun than in the old mercantilist manipulation days. The implicit benefit that dollar flows appear to be getting (via the wealth effect in the US stock market) is not there in China (lower equity ownership); in fact, the rising Yuan is drastically hurting them as despite export orders remaining in growth mode, the China Daily reports that "most exporters in the delta region have told us that the rising yuan value has led to a big profit decline." Of course, the exporters are calling for a weaker Yuan but as the nation struggles with an exploding shadow banking system, bubbles in real estate and credit, and inflation concerns it knows that any implicit effort to weaken the CNY will create a surge in capital inflows and fuel further imbalances. China remains in the middle of the 'currency war'-driven inflation rock and 'sagging growth' hard place; and with two 91-day bill issues in the last week (in addition to repo)  the clear signal (masked by export data fudges) is that China is much more worried about inflation than it is letting on (and has little ability to manage hot money inflows).

• Once a beacon, Obama under fire over civil liberties (Reuters)
• Eurozone in longest recession since birth of currency bloc (FT)
• EU Oil Manipulation Probe Shines Light on Platts Pricing Window (BBG)
• BMWs Cheaper Than Hyundais in Korea as Tariffs Crumble (BBG)
• Stock Boom Isn't a Bubble, Says BOJ's Kuroda (WSJ)
• Struggling France strives to shake off economic gloom (FT)
• JPMorgan investors take heat off Dimon (FT)
• Private-Equity Firms Build Instead of Buy (WSJ)
• Bloomberg Saga Highlights Clash Between Two Worlds (WSJ)
• Bank documents portray Cyprus as Russia's favorite haven (Reuters)
• HSBC Signals 14,000 Jobs Cuts in $3 Billion Savings Plan (BBG)
• Argentines Hold More Than $50 Billion in U.S. Currency (BBG)

China is in the midst of an urban revolution, with hundreds of millions of migrants moving into cities every year.  Since 2011, for the first time in history, more than half of China’s 1.3 billion citizens (690 million people) are living in cities.  Another 300-400 million are expected to be added to China's cities in the next 15-20 years.  New Premier Li Keqiang recently proposed accelerating urbanization in China, and said urbanization is a “huge engine” of China’s future economic growth. Yet, China’s urban dream may be derailed by the lack of affordable housing in cities for the massive influx of urban residents.  

• Hilsenrath: A Top Contender at the Fed Faces Test Over Easy Money (WSJ)
• Yen drops further as G7 avoids criticizing Japan (Reuters)
• Markets missed Flaherty’s clues on next Bank of Canada chief (G&M)
• Republicans turn screws over Tea Party tax probes (FT)
• Dual-track Libor replacement lined up (FT)
• Risks to China recovery seen as factory output underwhelms (Reuters)
• Barack Obama’s goal of universal healthcare could be set back significantly by Texas Governor Rick Perry (FT)
• Gold Bears Pull $20.8 Billion as BlackRock Says Buy (BBG)
• Mexico sets shelters as volcano shakes, spews ash (AP)
• Europe Eases Corporate Tax Dodge as Worker Burdens Rise (BBG)
• IPOs Set to Raise Most Cash Since Crisis (WSJ)
• Melting Ice Opens Fight Over Sea Routes for Arctic Debate (BBG)
• Top hedge funds bet on Greek banks (FT)
• Icahn Asks Investors to Make Big Bet on a Debt-Laden Dell (BBG)

Overnight risk continues to ignore all newsflow (today the economic reporting finally picks up with advance retail sales due at 8:30 am as expectations for a second modest decline in a row of -0.3%) and is focused entirely on what the consensus decides to make of the Hilsenrath piece, even as the difficulty level was raised a notch following another late Sunday Hilsenrath piece, which puts more variable into the "tapering" equation, and whose focus is whether Bernanke will be replaced by Janet Yellen, Geithner or Summers, or anyone. With all three classified as permadoves, one does scratch their head how the market can be confused: worst case Fed tapers by $10/20 billion per month, market tumbles, then Bernanke's replacement or Ben himself ploughs on even more aggressively with QE. QED.

A month ago we pointed out that even as the Chinese credit bubble - at a record 240% of GDP on a consolidated basis - is now clearly out of control, the far more disturbing aspect of China's credit-fueled economy is the ever declining boost to economic growth as a result of every incremental dollar created. Indeed, as the economic response to "credit shock" becomes lower and lower, even as the inflationary impact lingers, the PBOC is caught between a stagnating rock and an inflationary hard place. Nonetheless, there are few options and with the shark-like need to continue growing, or at least moving, in order to prevent collapse, China did precisely what we expected it to do: boost credit growth even more despite the obvious tapering economic impact of such money creation. Sure enough, overnight China reported that its M2 growth accelerated in April from 15.7% in March, to 16.1% on a Y/Y basis: the fastest pace of credit creation in two years. Yes, the PBOC may not be creating money, but the Chinese pseudo-sovereign commercial banks, sure are, and at a pace that puts the rest of the world to shame.

• PBOC Says China Shouldn’t Be ’Blindly Optimistic’ on Inflation (BBG)
• Foreigners Buying Half of London New Homes Prop Up Building (BBG) - first they come for the foreign deposits, then for the real assets...
• Investors Rediscovering Margin Debt (WSJ) - well, yes: it is at record highs
• China issues new rules targeting wealth management fund pools (RTRS)
• Navy $37 Billion Ships Seen Unsuitable Have 2-Year Window (BBG)
• New York may have to drop claims against BofA over Merrill (RTRS)
• FBI Rejects Boston Police Stance in Spat Over Terror Data (BBG)
• In eastern Syria oil smugglers benefit from chaos (RTRS)

For a country, whose founder Chairman Mao once upon a time envisioned great wealth equality for all and a communist utopia, things sure have had a very capitalist ending. Perhaps nowhere is this more visible than in Mao's lineage itself, where we find that the granddaughter of Mao, Kong Dongmei, managed to rise above the great unwashed mass of egalitarianism, and ended up just slightly more equal as a result of the Great Leap Forward, with a personal fortune amounting to $815 million according to New Fortune, a Chinese financial magazine. But it is not so much the realization that the occupation of politics is one grand lie (second perhaps only to economics) and where preaching equality for all is merely a means to achieve great wealth for yourself, but that the 40 year old descendant of the Chairman, with her wealth of nearly $1 billion, is merely the 242nd richest person in China, which means there are over 200 billionaires in the country, the bulk of whom we can only imagine are descendants of the original "communist" founders of the country.

• Einhorn's advice to investors: don't take my advice (Reuters)
• Next: floating dead vegetables: Chinese inflation rises on soaring vegetable prices (FT)
• The scramble for the bottom dollar is on: McDonald's, Wendy's Battle for Value-Centric Customers (WSJ)
• Cheaper iPhone coming after all: Apple supplier Pegatron boosts China workforce by 40 percent in second quarter (Reuters)
• House set to pass tactical Republican debt bill (Reuters)
• Underwriting bonanza: Goldman Said to Earn $500 Million Arranging Malaysia Bond (BBG)
• G7 finance chiefs to discuss bank reform push (Reuters)
• Big Banks Push Back Against Tighter Rules (WSJ)
• University endowments trim holdings in US Treasuries (FT)
• Ex-Pakistan PM's son abducted as Taliban threaten poll (Reuters)
• China Dowry Filled With Gold Signals Gains for Jewelers (BBG)
• As discussed here over a year ago: China inflation data shows central bank policy dilemma (Reuters)