Yuan

The Chinese Central Bank has so far stoically endured the monthly injection of $85 billion in boiling hot money for the past seven months, lovingly delivered by the inhabitants of the Marriner Eccles building, even if it meant a proportionate hawkish response which has pushed the Shanghai Composite red for the year, and having to deal with a property market that is on the verge of another inflationary blow off top. But while the PBOC will grudgingly take this kind of monetary abuse from Bernanke, now that it has to deal with another de novo created $70+ billion in monthly central bank liquidity (poetically called Carry-O-QE by Deutsche's Jim Reid), this time coming from that loathed neighbor and one time invader across the East China Sea, China won't take it any more. As the SCMP reports, "Many of China's top economists are livid at what they view as an effective currency devaluation by Japan and are calling on the People's Bank of China to retaliate by weakening the yuan to defend itself in what they see as a new currency war." 

Since the Financial Crisis erupted in 2007, the US Federal Reserve has engaged in dozens of interventions/ bailouts to try and prop up the financial system. Now, I realize that everyone knows the Fed is “printing money.” However, when you look at the list of bailouts/ money pumps it’s absolutely staggering how much money the Fed has thrown around.

• George Soros: 'What Japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because" (BBG)
• North Korea lacks means for nuclear strike on U.S., experts say (Reuters)
• Yellen latest to hint about slowing of QE3 (FT)
• Hollande approval rating hits new low (FT)
• Hollande Dismisses Reshuffle as Crisis Hits Popularity (BBG)
• Japan Upper house approves full 5 year term for BOJ gov. Kuroda (BBG)
• US: Plan to Cap Tax Breaks Is Gaining Steam (WSJ)
• BOE Says Investors May Be Taking ‘Too Rosy’ a View of Stress (BBG)
• Kiwis Say ‘Ni Hao’ as China Ties Trump Australia Sales (BBG)
• Obama Avoids Trading Threats With North Korea’s Kim (BBG)

Whenever discussion over North Korea arises in Western circles, it always seems to be accompanied by a strange mixture of sensationalism and indifference. The mainstream media consistently presents the communist nation as an immediate threat to U.S. national security, conjuring an endless number of hypothetical scenarios as to how they could join forces with Al-Qaeda and attack with a terroristic strategy. In the midst of the latest tensions with the North Koreans, I have found that most people are barely tracking developments and that, when confronted by the idea of war, they shrug it off as if it is a laughable concept. “Surely” they claim, “The North is just posturing as they always have," creating a social and political atmosphere surrounding our relations with the Asian nation that places both sides of the Pacific in great danger. The skeptics argue that we will never get to this point, though, because North Korea has brandished and blustered many times before, all resulting in nothing. We see recent events being far different and more urgent than in the past. All that is needed to instigate an event on the Korean Peninsula are tightened sanctions.

• Cyprus leader invites family firm probe (FT)
• How the Fed fueled an explosion in subprime auto loans (Reuters)
• Wal-Mart Customers Complain Bare Shelves Are Widespread (BBG)
• JC Penney CEO gets no bonus, stock award after dismal year (Reuters)
• New Bird Flu Virus Kills 2 in China, Sparking WHO Probe (BBG)
• Algorithms Play Matchmaker to Fight 7.7% U.S. Unemployment (BBG)
• Fed hawk Lacker and dove Evans face off over inflation (Reuters)
• Infamous silver market "cornerer" WH Hunt Becomes Billionaire on Bakken Oil After Bankruptcy (BBG)
• Japan Auto Sales Fall on Subsidy End as Korea Extends Drop (BBG)
• Black Hawks Near North Korea Show Risk in U.S. Command Shift (BBG)
• SEC Embraces Social Media (WSJ)
• Tesla Touts ‘True Out of Pocket’ Financing for Model S (BBG)
• U.K. Banks Try to Dodge Bonus Caps by Defining Risk-Taker (BBG)

• Goldman's Mario Draghi convinced Italy president Napolitano not to resign (Reuters)
• David Stockman Warns of Crash Of Fed-Fueled Bubble Economy (BBG)
• Cyprian archbishop calls on Central Bank's head, Finance Minister to resign (Voice of Russia)
• Cyprus Parliament President Says Country Should Exit Eurozone (Zero Hedge)
• Cyprus seeks to find people behind bank crisis (FT)
• Argentina sticks to its guns over holdout creditor payments (FT)
• 40% of all trading is now done in dark pools and off exchanges (NYT)
• Sequester Impact Remains Elusive (WSJ)
• China’s Home Prices Increase Most in 26 Months, SouFun Says (BBG)
• Beijing, Shanghai Add to Home Curbs as China Acts to Cool Market (BBG)
• Two men die in Shanghai in first human cases of bird flu strain (SCMP)
• Economics will catch up with the euro  (FT)
• How much gold is there in the world? (BBC)
• Fannie Mae Regulator Sets No-Doc Modifications for Borrowers (BBG)

Overview of the major central bank meetings and data preview as well as the latest from Cyprus and Italy.

A month ago we pointed out that as a result of Australia's unprecedented reliance on China as a target export market, accounting for nearly 30% of all Australian exports (with the flipside being just as true, as Australia now is the fifth-biggest source of Chinese imports), the two countries may as well be joined at the hip. Over the weekend, Australia appears to have come to the same conclusion, with the Australian reporting that the land down under is set to say goodbye to the world's "reserve currency" in its trade dealings with the world's biggest marginal economic power, China, and will enable the direct convertibility of the Australian dollar into Chinese yuan, without US Dollar intermediation, in the process "slashing costs for thousands of business" and also confirming speculation that China is fully intent on, little by little, chipping away at the dollar's reserve currency status until one day it no longer is.

First it was thousands of dead pigs floating in the Shanghai water supply (at last estimate over 16,000), then a thousand dead ducks were pulled from a river in the Sichuan province, and now, pushing the meme beyond even its most grotesque boundaries, we learn that five black swans were found floating lifeless on the pond of Anhui University’s old campus in Hefei, traditionally inhabited by a bevy of black swans. From Danwei: "The latest instance of floating dead animals in China – first pigs, then ducks, and now black swans – these mere five black swans became an object of heated discussion on the Internet right after the announcement was made. How did they die? Was it a natural disaster or another man-made one? As Star News tells us today, upon hearing of the news yesterday it immediately sent a journalist to the scene to find out exactly what happened. What he found was just one more filthy pond filled with oily water and garbage."

The BTFD mantra is alive and well in a market, where futures overnight briefly dipped to a low of -0.5% only to be set to open at record high, following the biggest one day drubbing in China in months, where the Shanghai Composite closed -2.82% after new rules were issued by the Chinese banking regulator to limit the expansion and improve the transparency of so-called “wealth management products”. The products, which are marketed as higher yielding alternatives to bank deposits, are often used to fund risky projects including property developments, short-term corporate lines of credit or for speculative purchases of commodities and have been identified as contributing to the rise of shadow-banking in China’s financial system. As Deutsche reports, Fitch estimates the total amount of outstanding wealth-management products was around 13 trillion yuan at the end of last year—equal to about 15% of total banking-system deposits. Japanese equities were also weaker overnight (Nikkei –1.3%) and the yen is 0.3% firmer against the dollar after BoJ Governor Kuroda told parliament that he has no intention of buying foreign bonds because doing so could be seen as currency intervention. Finally, South Korea informally entered the currency wars after it slashed its GDP forecast from 3% to mid-2%, announcing it would use "interest rates" to boost growth, which naturally means use of monetary means and directly challenging the BOJ.

If we shed our fixation with the Fed and look at global supply and demand, we get a clearer understanding of the tailwinds driving the U.S. dollar higher. I know this is as welcome in many circles as a flashbang tossed on the table in a swank dinner party, but the U.S. dollar is going a lot higher over the next few years. In a very real sense, every currency is a claim not on the issuing central bank's balance sheet but on the entire economy of the issuing nation. All this leads to two powerful tailwinds to the value of the dollar. One is simply supply and demand: as the global economy slides into recession, trade volumes decline, and the U.S. deficit shrinks. (It's already $250 billion less than was "exported" in 2006.) That will leave fewer dollars available on the global market. The second tailwind is the demand for dollars from those exiting the euro and yen. The abandonment of the euro is already visible in these charts.

• What bread... What circuses... JPMorgan Chase Faces Full-Court Press of Federal Investigations (NYT)
• European Regulators to Charge Banks Over Derivatives (WSJ) ... but forgive us if we don't hold our breath
• Cyprus readies capital controls to avert bank run (Reuters)
• Damage ripples through Cypriot economy (FT)
• G4S readies guards as Cypriot banks prepare to open (Reuters)
• Global pool of triple A status shrinks 60% (FT)
• Customers Flee Wal-Mart Empty Shelves for Target, Costco (BBG)
• BOE Says U.K. Banks Have Capital Shortfall of $38 Billion (BBG)
• U.K. Banks Facing Capital Shortfall (WSJ)
• Cyprus Details Bank Revamp (WSJ)
• Kazumasa Iwata Joins Kuroda Naysayers as BOJ to Meet (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Need More Time for New Bank, Russia Says (BBG)

• Berezovsky Died of Hanging Without Struggle, Police Say (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF (BBG)
• China pledges more investments to Africa (FT)
• BOJ's Kuroda signals targeting longer-dated JGBs (Reuters)
• North Korea orders artillery to be combat ready, targeting U.S. bases (Reuters)
• Supreme Court to take up gay marriage for the first time (Reuters)
• U.S. Cracks Down on 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
• Japanese courts press Abe on electoral reform (FT)
• Vietnam accuses China of attack on fishermen in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Italy's High Court Overturns Knox Acquittal (WSJ)
• Facebook’s Zuckerberg Said to Explore Forming Political Group (BBG)

• Cyprus Salvaged After EU Deal Shuts Bank to Get $13B (BBG)
• Last-minute Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses (Reuters)
• Anxious, angry Cypriots face uncertain future (Reuters)
• Spain Brings the Pain to Bank Investors (WSJ)
• First Switzerland now... U.S. Seeks Answers in Liechtenstein on Tax Cheats (BBG)
• Rebel Free Syrian Army founder loses leg in Syria blast (Reuters)
• European Stocks Rise on Cyprus Deal as Italian Bonds, Crude Gain (BBG)
• Michael Dell Likely to Sweeten Buyout Bid to Save Legacy (BBG)
• Bankers’ pay premium is narrowing (FT)
• Surgery Restoring Penis After Prostate Cancer Increasing (BBG)
• Silent or supportive, conservatives give gay marriage momentum (Reuters)

China’s Government knows it's on thin ice and so is doing three things to try to mollify the Chinese population:

1. Launching a very public campaign to crack down on corruption (to mollify the populace).
2. Taking steps to tame inflation (slowing financial speculation and importing massive quantities of commodities to attempt to control prices).
3. Curbing its stimulus efforts.
4.