Yuan

• Spain’s Deficit Widened to 10.2% on Bank-Rescue Cost (BBG) - or as Rajoy would say, when one excludes all negatives, it was a surplus
• Monti Austerity Pushes Italians Toward Parliament Upheaval (BBG)
• Russia accuses U.S. of double standards over Syria (Reuters)
• Euro Area to Shrink in 2013 as Unemployment Rises (BBG)
• UK, China central banks to discuss currency swap line (Reuters)
• Italy Court Rejects Challenge to Bailout of Monte Paschi (BBG)
• Japan's Abe to showcase alliance, get Obama to back Abenomics (Reuters)
• Russia’s missing billions revealed (FT)
• China Home-Price Gains May Presage Policy Tightening (BBG)
• Fed unlikely to curtail stimulus despite rising doubts (Reuters)
• Banks face fines up to 30 per cent of revenues (FT) - just as soon as Basel III is passed (i.e., never)
• J.C. Penney Can Raise Billions Under Revised Credit Line (BBG)
• Cost of Dropping Citizenship Keeps U.S. Earners From Exit (BBG)

• China drains cash to curb liquidity (FT) - no longer just a New Year issue...
• Hilesnrath speaks (but nobody cares anymore) - Fed Split Over How Long To Keep Cash Spigot Open (WSJ)
• Chasm opening between weak French and strong German economies (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Said to Seek First Sale of Mortgage Bonds Since Crisis (BBG)
• China's Bo Xilai not cooperating on probe, been on hunger strike (Reuters)
• Fed minutes send warning on durability of bond buying (Reuters)
• Sony Seeks an Extra Life in New PlayStation 4 (BBG)
• Rajoy pledges fresh round of reforms (FT) - and by reforms he means kickbacks?
• Doubts loom over eurozone recovery (BBG)
• China Extending Zhou Stay Seen as Aid to Financial Overhaul (BBG)
• King Pulls Out Stops to Energize Economy in Carney Handover (BBG)
• Central Banks Discussed Nominal GDP Targets at G-20 (Businessweek)
• Grand Central Owner Opposes IPO of Empire State Building (BBG)

Think Americans are the only people in the world toiling under a gargantuan debtload, which at last check was a massive $55.3 trillion, or about $175K per person? Think again. Meet Sherry Sheng, a 29-year-old Shanghai policewoman, who bought herself a 4,000 yuan ($642) black fur jacket, splurging for the last time before she starts paying off the mortgage on her first home.

Sherry is what is known as a Chinese "housing slave."

• Office Depot Agrees to Buy Officemax for $13.50/Shr in Stock
• Bulgarian Government Resigns Amid Protests (WSJ)
• Rome will burn, regardless of Italian election result (Reuters)
• Abe Says No Need for Foreign Bond Buys Under New BOJ Chief (BBG)
• Rhetoric Turns Harsh as Budget Cuts Loom (WSJ)
• Muddy Waters Secret China Weapon Is on SEC Website (BBG)
• Business Loans Flood the Market (WSJ)
• Staples May Be Winner in Office Depot-OfficeMax Merger (BBG)
• Fortescue Won't Pay Dividend, Profit Falls (WSJ)
• Key Euribor rate on hold after rate cut talk tempered (Reuters)
• FBI Probes Trading in Heinz Options  (WSJ)
• Spain Said to Impose Yield Ceiling on Bond Sales by Regions (BBG)
• BOK’s Kim Signals No Rate Cut Needed Now as Outlook Improves (BBG)

The Chinese New Year celebration is now over, the Year of the Snake is here, and those following the Shanghai Composite have lots to hiss about, as two out of two trading days have printed in the red. But a far bigger concern to not only those long the SHCOMP, but the "Great Reflation Trade - ver. 2013", is that just as two years ago, China appears set to pull out first, as once again inflation rears its ugly head. And where the PBOC goes, everyone else grudgingly has to follow: after all without China there is no marginal growth driver to the world economy. End result: China's reverse repos, or liquidity providing operations, have ended after month of daily injections, and the first outright repo, or liquidity draining operation, just took place after eight months of dormancy. From the WSJ: "Chinese authorities took a step to ease potential inflationary pressures Tuesday by using a key mechanism for the first time in eight months. The move by the central bank to withdraw cash from the banking system is a reversal after months of pumping cash in. That cash flood was meant to reduce borrowing costs for businesses as the economy slowed last year—but recent data has shown growth picking up, along with the main determinants of inflation: housing and food prices."

With the end of Asia's lunar new year celebration and the return of the US and Canadian markets after yesterday's holiday, there is full liquidity in the global capital markets for the first time in over a week. The currencies are mixed, with the yen, sterling and the Australian dollar posting modest gains, while the euro, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar have heavier tones.

The Chinese yuan has weakened for the second day after returning from the extended holiday and is near 2-month lows. After reversing lower yesterday, the Shanghai Composite led the regional bourses lower with a 1.9% decline. The Composite is approaching its 20-day moving average (~2365) which it has not traded below since early December. European equity markets are higher and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up a little more than 0.5% led by consumer goods and basic materials. Of the main industrial sectors, only telecom is lower. European bond markets, core as well as periphery are lower.

Broadly speaking, we identify five factors that will shape foreign exchange rates in coming days.

While the recent move in gold lower, attributed primarily to the fickle rotations of assorted hedge funds who have gotten crushed on their AAPL holdings and thus forced to liquidate profitable positions mostly in ETFs and other paper gold representations (as demand for physical precious metals has never been greater), has seen many pundits scream (as they do every year) that the move higher in gold and precious metals is over, what everyone as usual forgets is that the big move up in gold in 2011 was not driven by Soros or Paulson or Einhorn buying (or selling) laughable amounts of the yellow metal but by relentless end consumer demand out of China and India, when inflation was surging. And with the entire world now openly reflating the one country that has the lowest buffer to hot external money - China - is about to see prices for all products go parabolic once more. It's just a matter of time. Of course, last week's Lunar New Year and closed exchanges bought some time for the bearish gold thesis, but that is now over, quite literally with a bang as demand out of both China and India explodes out of the gates, proving that the sensible money is merely waiting for every dip in the PM complex to buy.

• G-20 Signals Support for Japan Easing Without Yen Talk (BBG) - but how will Mrs Watanabe know to sell the JPY without nightly proddings?
• Obama Faces Risks in Pipeline Decision (NYT)
• White House Immigration Plan Leaked (WSJ)
• Reader’s Digest Is Bankrupt as Iconic Magazine Falters (BBG)
• Venezuela's Chavez in surprise return from Cuba (Reuters)
• German Recovery Hinges on Euro Zone (WSJ)
• Hong Kong’s Bankruptcy Requests Climb to Almost Two-Year High (BBG)
• China New Year Retail Sales Growth Slows on Frugal Drive (BBG)
• Debt Bubble Born of Easy Cash Prompts Swedish Rule Review (BBG)
• In Europe's tax race, it's the base, not the rate, that counts (Reuters)
• Ugliest Danish Banks Find No Buyers in Toxic Asset Trap (Bloomberg)
• Italian Undecided Voters Targeted in Campaign’s Last Week (BBG)

The great trade, capital flow and debt imbalances that were built up over the preceding two decades must reverse themselves. Michael Pettis notes, however, that these imbalances can continue for many years, but at some point they become unsustainable and the world must adjust by reversing those imbalances. One way or the other, in other words, the world will rebalance. But there are worse ways and better ways it can do so. Pettis adds that, any policy that does not clearly result in a reversal of the deep debt, trade and capital imbalances of the past decade is a policy that cannot be sustained. It is likely to be political considerations that determine how quickly the rebalancing processes take place and whether they do so in ways that set the stages for future growth or future stagnation. Pettis' guess is that we have ended the first stage of the global crisis, and most of the deepest problems have been identified. In 2013 we will begin to see how policymakers respond and what the future outlook is likely to be. The following 10 themes are what he will be watching this year in order to figure out where we are likely to end up.

As debate about currency wars heats up, there's been little talk about which currencies will prove safe havens. We think the Singapore dollar tops the list.

U.S. exports and imports last year totaled $3.82 trillion, the U.S. Commerce Department said last week. China’s customs administration reported last month that the country’s total trade in 2012 amounted to $3.87 trillion. China had a $231.1 billion annual trade surplus while the U.S. had a trade deficit of $727.9 billion. For those who are still not aware of why this is such a big deal, it is essentially a turning point moment in global trade.  There is no doubt that China will now be inducted into the SDR, and that their importance as a trade and consumption center will quickly lead to a move away from the dollar.  To put it simply, the dollar is going to lose its world reserve status VERY soon.  Many will cheer this change as necessary progress towards a more “globally conscious” economic system.  However, it’s not that simple.  Total centralization is first and foremost the dream of idiots, and in any mutation (or amputation) there is always considerable pain involved.  The proponents of this “New World Order” (their words, not mine) seem to have placed the U.S. squarely in their crosshairs as the primary recipient of this fiscal pain.

After having less than half the total US deposits back in 2005, China has pumped enough cash into the economy using various public and private conduits to make even Ben Bernanke blush: between January 2005 and January 2013, Chinese bank deposits have soared by a whopping $11 trillion, rising from $4 trillion to $15 trillion! We have no idea what the real Chinese GDP number is but this expansion alone is anywhere between 200 and 300% of the real GDP as it stands now. And more: between January 2012 and January 2013 Chinese deposits rose by just over $2 trillion. In other words, while everyone focuses on Uncle Ben and his measly $1 trillion in base money creation in 2013 (while loan creation at commercial banks continues to decline), China will have created well more than double this amount of money in the current year alone!

• Rate-Rig Spotlight Falls on 'Rain Man' (WSJ)
• Blizzard Cancels U.S. Flights, Threatens Snow in New York (BBG)
• Monti says he did not know of bank probes (FT)
• Japan's Aso: yen has weakened more than intended (Reuters)
• Japan Pledges Foreign-Policy Response to Territorial Incursions (BBG)
• Paratroops mutiny in Bamako in blow to Mali security efforts (Reuters)
• China, Japan engage in new invective over disputed isles (Reuters)
• Asteroid to Traverse Earth’s Satellite Zone, NASA Says (BBG)
• EU leaders haggle over budget tightening (FT)
• China Trade Tops Forecasts in Holiday-Distorted Month (Bloomberg)
• Buffett’s Son Says He’s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role (BBG)

Five full years on from the financial crisis, stock markets have regained lost ground and are within striking distance of new record highs. Yet, it’s only now, after all the gains from the bottom have been made, that the investing crowd is starting to put money back into stocks. Curious. When stocks were cheap, nobody wanted them. Now that they’ve breached record nominal highs again (Dow 14,000++), investors are piling back in. It’s almost a cliche, but to make money investing, you generally have to buy something when nobody else wants it, and sell when everyone wants to buy. As a group, gold stocks are down between 20% and 30% over the past year. Yet in that same timeframe, the price of the gold has risen. As a result, sentiment toward gold stocks is pitiful. Even diehard gold bugs are tired of losing money in gold stocks and have been dumping their shares in disgust. There are 4 main reasons I can think of why gold stocks might be so cheap...

• Bersani's lead over Berlusconi continues to erode, now just 3.6 Pts, or inside error margin, in Tecne Poll
• Spain gears up for U.S. debt investor meetings (Reuters)
• PBOC Set for Record Weekly Liquidity Injection (WSJ)
• RBS Trader Helped UBS’s Hayes With Libor Bribes, Regulators Say (BBG)
• ECB, Ireland reach bank debt deal (Reuters)
• AMR-US Airways Near Merger Agreement (WSJ)
• Monte Paschi says no more derivatives losses (Reuters) ... remember this
• Harvard’s Gopinath Helps France Beat Euro Straitjacket (BBG) - by sliding into recession?
• Obama Relents on Secret Drone Memo (WSJ)
• Brennan to face questions on interrogations, drones and leaks (Reuters)
• Wall Street Success With Germans Boomerangs (BBG)
• Khamenei rebuffs U.S. offer of direct talks (Reuters)
• Boeing Preps Redesign to Get 787 Flying  (WSJ)