Yuan

Traders Return From Vacation To Find S&P Futures Flat, Oil And Dollar Lower, Amid Flurry Of M&A

The return from summer holidays has started in much the same way as we left off August, with another subdued session that has seen European stocks little changed, Asian shares advance and S&P futures are modestly in the green amid a flurry of M&A. The US dollar weakened, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index down 0.2% for the 2nd day in a row as prospects for a U.S. interest-rate hike this month remained subdued.

The Ultimate 21st Century Choice: OBOR Or War

The G20 meets in tech hub Hangzhou, China, at an extremely tense geopolitical juncture. China has invested immense political/economic capital to prepare this summit. But most of all China will seek greater G20 backing for the New Silk Roads – or One Belt, One Road (OBOR), as they are officially known – as well as the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). However, the US hyperpower – not the Atlanticist West, because Europe is mired in fear and stagnation - “proposes” the current neocon/neoliberalcon status quo...

Global Stocks Rise, Metals Jump On Strong Chinese Data; Pound Surges On Record UK Mfg Spike

After a muted end to August, September started off on the strong foot overnight following a surprising beat in China's official manufacturing PMI print, which rose above 50 to the highest level in almost two years. That, together with a record rebound in the UK PMI, bolstered investor confidence, fueling gains in stocks and industrial metals. The dollar advanced against most of its peers while bonds retreated before Friday’s payrolls report.

Frontrunning: August 31

  • Treasuries Extend Drop in August on Fed Outlook as Dollar Gains (BBG)
  • Oil slips on dollar strength, still set for monthly gain (Reuters)
  • Trump to make dramatic trip to Mexico before immigration speech (Reuters)
  • Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz Beats Back Florida Primary Challenge (WSJ)
  • Ban cash because... SWIFT discloses more cyber thefts, pressures banks on security (Reuters)

In Historic Event, China Sells First World Bank SDR-Denominated Bonds In Decades

In one of the most closely followed bond issues in recent history, overnight the IBRD, one of the five member-institutions of the World Bank Group, sold 500 million SDR-denominated three-year bonds carrying a coupon of 0.49% at an auction in China's interbank market on Wednesday. This was the first SDR denominated offering in three decades, with the issuance symbolically taking place in Shanghai one month before the official inclusion of China's currency in the SDR basket. 

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Rise As Treasury Yields See Biggest Monthly Jump In Over A Year

The August market doldrums were on display on the last day of the month as S&P futures were fractionally lower on non-existent volume, while both Europe and Asia were modestly in the green; ten-year Treasury yields headed for the biggest monthly jump in more than a year while the dhe dollar gained for a sixth day against the yen in the longest winning streak since March. European stocks advanced for a second day, adding to a monthly gain as oil trimmed its advance in the best month since April.

China Turmoil Looms As Traders Bet On Post-G-20 Yuan Tumble

Something is different this time. For the last few years, China has 'ensured stability' in the Yuan ahead of major geopolitical events - no matter what - only to let things slide back into turmoiling after. Ahead of this weekend's G-20, however, and amid notably deteriorating fundamentals (and an increasingly hawkish-sounding Fed), China has let the Yuan tumble in the last week... and traders are piling into bets on post-G-20 weakness to continue.

ICI Lists Three Ways The Market Is "Weird"

  • Eequity Capital Markets volume is down ~50%, we’re in our 10th straight month of down y/y volume
  • PE funds are doing more selling vs IPO'ing lately and block trades are 3x their normal percentage of secondary volume as sellers look to take the money and run 
  • Several industries (like energy, biotech/health care and parts of technology) have been lesser participants

Frontrunning: August 30

  • EU demands Apple pay Ireland up to 13 billion euros in tax (Reuters)
  • Dollar Advances as Treasuries Drop on Rate Outlook; Stocks Rise (BBG)
  • Chinese embassy in Kyrgyzstan hit by suspected suicide car bomb (Reuters)
  • France, joining German Economy Minister, urges halt to trade talks with U.S. (Reuters)
  • Euro zone monthly economic sentiment falls more than expected (Reuters)

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Higher As Dollar Resumes Rise

The quiet overnight market had been focused on the upcoming comments by Stanley Fischer, who is set to give a Bloomberg TV interview at 6:30am ET, where he was expected to expand on his recent hawkish comments. Heading into Fischer's appearance, the dollar strengthened, global stocks rose, oil hovered around $47, while US index futures were largely flat and Treasuries fell.