There is blood on the streets wherever you look in Brazil today, but probably of most interest to the hundreds of US asset managers (the ones managing your mutual funds) is what happens to Petrobras as it remains so widely held. As we noted below, bond prices are collapsing and default risk is soaring, and with the nation's currency collapsing amid the lower-for-longer oil prices, $90 billion of dollar-denominated debt could soon potentially be too burdensome for the company to repay.
News That Matters
News That Matters
US Futures Surge Nearly 30 Points To Overnight Highs After Tumbling On Worst Chinese Data In 6 YearsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/23/2015 06:55 -0400
In many ways, the overnight market has so far been a reversal of yesterday, when a stable Asia session (with China stocks rising) gave way to a European tumble which in turn dragged the US lower.
US equity futures plunged (Dow -140)
Following Xi's earlier speech reassuring Yellen that the "Chinese economy is stable," and the Yuan tumbled 0.25% against the USD ahead of the data. China's Flash Manufacturing PMI printed a disastrous 47.0 (against expectations of a slight rise to 47.5 from August's 47.3). This is the lowest print since March 2009. Caixin Group confidently suggests this utterly crap data is the bottom and that "patience may be needed for policies designed to promote stabilization to demonstrate their effectiveness.”
PBOC Devalues Yuan For 3rd Day As President Xi Reminds The Fed "China's Economy Is Stable" - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 21:08 -0400
Ironically, As Xi says "won't devalue the Yuan," The PBOC devalues the Yuan for the 3rd day to the weakest in a month...
Following last night's ADB China growth downgrade, and warnings from The IMF's Lagarde that a "China slowdown is a major risk to the global economy," the weakness seen in Europe and US is continuing across AsiaPac tonight ahead of China's much-watched PMI data (though we are not sure why - since no "bad news" excuse is needed to enable super-easy policy). With Xi in the US, one would imagine a 'beat' for PMI will be engineered, although industrial metals are extending their losses. Credit markets area nxious with Malaysia CDS at 2011 highs, Philippines highest since 2014, and China back on the rise. Xi begins his speech tonight reminding The Fed that China "is the biggest developing nation in the world," and its economy "is stable" despite Yellen's fears.
After 35 years of falling and now zero rates, the direction is only up for the cost of money, as is the cost to service debt, along with the burden to those who are most indebted (i.e. the U.S.). What should no longer be unthinkable is that the clock is ticking on America’s status as the holder of the reserve currency. If you still doubt this proposition, consider that China is in the process of setting up a third benchmark for oil, along with Brent and West Texas Intermediate, for trading oil futures contracts. And unlike the existing contracts, these will be traded in Renminbi. Who needs the dollar?
Futures Plunge On Renewed Growth, Central Bank Fears; Volkswagen Shares Crash As Default Risk SurgesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/22/2015 06:49 -0400
While Asian trading overnight started off on the right foot, chasing US momentum higher, things rapidly shifted once Europe opened as attention moved back to global growth fears, global central banks losing credibility, as well as miners and the ongoing Volkswagen fiasco.
What can we expect to happen in our homeland when finally even the generally uninformed population also understands that governments they have elected for decades, and its Fed facilitator or controller, jointly have waged a century-long war on its citizens? The people of America cannot make a counter offensive similar to those of sovereign nations; however people are uniting in resistance to robber baron policies, as evidenced by the popularity of nonpoliticians currently in candidacy for the office of president. These troops will mass also, it just remains to be seen what form their eventual counter offensive will be. The established order will be challenged.
PBOC Devalues Yuan, Injects More Liquidity As China's Banking Regulator Admits "Bad Loan Situation Is More Severe Than 2008"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/21/2015 21:20 -0400
AsiaPac stocks are opening mixed after the US session gains. Perhaps the biggest news of the evening is, as China's bankiong regulator has been meeting with foreign banks to express concerns over lack of risk control around non-performing loans. As CBRC said, rather stunningly honest for a government entity, "the current situation is more severe than the time in 2008 during the financial crisis." With stocks up while commodities (Zinc) limit-down, PBOC injects another CNY50 bn and devalued the Yuan fix for the 2nd day in a row.
"In such a downside scenario there could be pressure on the central bank to provide about 10-12% of GDP in reserves to the market to offset outflows as well as hedging demand (which could be met by intervening in forward markets). This is roughly USD1.0-1.2trn – that would be about 30% of its current reserve portfolio."
US equity futures have retraced the late-day ramp from Friday with Dow down around 65pts. Asia is opening weaker (NKY -900 from Thursday highs) with EM FX appearing not to get the "but we didn't hike" message from The Fed with MYR the worst hit for now (after a few days of strength). EM outflows accelerated according to Morgan Stanley, down 6% AUM in 12 weeks. PBOC devalued the Yuan fix by 0.11% (the most in 2 weeks). While Fed uncertainty and fears about China have caused global derisking, PBOC chief Fan says "the economy is stable," and China's Beige Book suggests 'everything is awesome', as the survey summarizes, "perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy." If that's the case, then why is Janet in panic mode?
Non-bombasitc overview of the investment climate. No, the sky is not falling. This is not the end of days.
China is looking more and more like good ol' United States...
"At the start, China wasn't very confident. The worry was that there was no money for this."