After weeks of "stability," and following two emergency Fed meetings in 3 days (and an unexpected ease by MAS), The PBOC decided today was the right time to drastically slash the Yuan fix by 300 pips. This is the largest devaluation of the Chinese currency since January 7th (and second largest since August's world-market-turmoiling devaluation). Offshore Yuan had been tumbling all day (shrugging off the supposedly better trade data as FX traders saw through the colossal spike in imports from HK as indicative of capital outflows), and is falling further following PBOC's cut. Another abrupt message to The Fed... or is something happening behind the scenes (cough DB liquidity cough) that everyone is scrambling to deal with?
With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catalyst to maintain the levitation. It got that courtesy of the return of USDJPY levitation, which has pushed the pair back above 109, the highest in over a week, as well as a boost in sentiment from the previously reported Chinese trade data where exports rose the most in over a year, however much of the bounce was due to a favorable base effect from last year's decline. Additionally, as RBC reported, the 116.5% y/y increase in China’s reported March imports from HK likely reflects the growing trend of "over-invoicing", which is merely another form of capital outflow.
Chinese Stocks, Yuan Rally After Exports Rebound From February Bloodbath, Imports Fall For 17th Month In A RowSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/12/2016 22:13 -0400
After February's bloodbath in Chinese trade data, expectations were for a scorching hot rebound in March. With PBOC's Yuan 'basket' devaluation accelerating throughout this period it should not be surprising that Yuan-based China exports soared and imports beat expectations (but fell 1.7% - extending the losing streak to 17 months in a row). For now, oil and stock (US and China) prices are rising in reaction to this "good" news. Offshore Yuan is drifting stronger against the dollar. However, as China customs noted, March's export bounce reflected more base effect than increased demand.
Massive borrowing to pay the interest is everywhere and always a sign that the the end is near. The crack-up phase of China’s insane borrowing and building boom is surely at hand.
"Intervention in foreign exchange markets in order to gain a competitive advantage is unacceptable," proclaims US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew in a strongly worded statement today with regard America's position in the global economy. That we note this comment is only relevant as, despite the apparent "stability" of the Chinese Yuan against the USD, relative to the 13-currency-basket with which China primarily trades, the Yuan has collapsed to 17-month lows - with JPY and EUR appearing to bear the brunt of the pain.
it has been a rather quiet session, which saw Japan modestly lower dragged again by a lower USDJPY which hit fresh 17 month lows around 170.6 before staging another modest rebound and halting a six-day run of gains; China bounced after a slightly disappointing CPI print gave hope there is more space for the PBOC to ease; European equities rose, led by Italian banks which surged ahead of a meeting to discuss the rescue of various insolvent Italian banks, while mining stocks jumped buoyed by rising metal prices with signs of a pick-up in Chinese industrial demand.
There was some good and some bad news in tonight's Chinese March inflation (and deflation in the case of PPI) data.
The FX market is about to blow up in the Fed's face, and there's nothing they can do about it. What central banks fear most are markets that are not tightly controlled by central banks. The world's central banks are about to sit down to a banquet of consequences arising from seven long years of relentless manipulation.
"Where Else Can I Put My Money?" - China Starts Arresting People As Crisis It Created Comes Full CircleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/10/2016 09:21 -0400
Just like their foray into stocks, Chinese investors are finding out that it isn't easy to make money in short-term lending either. Defaults are on the rise and China's subprime lending bubble has burst. And just like it responded to "malicious short sellers" when stocks went down, China is now arresting those involved in the shadow banking world.
"Alibaba Group Holding Limited announced on April 5, 2016 that as of March 31, the end of its fiscal year 2016, it has become the largest retail economy in the world as measured by annual gross merchandise volume (GMV) on its China retail marketplaces. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) has performed agreed upon procedures on data relevant to Alibaba Group’s GMV."
It'll be four weeks tomorrow that Draghi fired his quadruple bazooka and yet European markets are in apathetic mode. We show the returns of our usual selection of global assets since the cob the night before the last ECB meeting on March 10th. Perhaps markets haven't been helped by a renewed but unrelated fall in Oil (Brent -9.1%, WTI -6.3%) since this point but it's noticeable that outside of commodities the worst performers have generally been areas of the market that Draghi tried to help.
Unlike yesterday's overnight session, which saw some subtantial carry FX volatility and tumbling European yields in the aftermath of the TSY's anti-inversion decree, leading to a return of fears that the next leg down in markets is upon us, the overnight session has been far calmer, assisted in no small part by the latest China Caixin Services PMI, which rose from 51.2 to 52.2. Adding to the overnight rebound was crude, which saw a big bounce following yesterday's API inventory data, according to which crude had its biggest inventory draw in 2016, resulting in WTI rising as high as $37.15 overnight
What’s left for the Empire of Chaos in the Eurasian front is the wishful thinking of attempting to encircle both Russia and China, while both keep actually expanding all across the Eurasian Heartland, shedding US dollars and buying gold, signing a flurry of contracts in yuan and selling oil and gas to all and sundry.
While all eyes on fixated on global stock markets as the measure of "prosperity" and "growth" (or is it hubris?), the larger force at work beneath the dovish cooing of central bankers is foreign exchange. The reality is that we're one panic away from foreign-exchange markets ripping free of central bank manipulation.