The conventional view tacitly assumes the global economy is dealing with one problem: recovering from the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09. Stimulating a "recovery" has been the focus of central banks and states everywhere. However, the additional sets of problems added as "solutions" only guarantee that the third and final crash of asset bubbles just ahead will be far more devastating than the crashes of 2000 and 2009.
- White House questions new Ebola rules, nurse plans to sue (Reuters)
- States stand firm on Ebola quarantines despite White House pressure (Reuters)
- Rousseff Naming Brazil Finance Minister Key to Regain Trust (BBG)
- Ukraine leader wins pro-West mandate but wary of Russia (Reuters)
- Single Firm Holds More Than 50% of Copper in LME Warehouses (WSJ)
- Treasury Liquidity Squeeze Seen as Dealer Shut Off Machine (BBG)
- CVS follows Rite-Aid, shuts off Apple Pay (USAToday)
- Oil Speculators Bet Wrong as Rebound Proves Fleeting (BBG)
- Draghi Sets Stimulus Pace as ECB Reveals Covered-Bond Purchases (BBG)
- German Ifo Business Confidence Drops for Sixth Month (BBG)
I challenge the central banker, manager, trader, and investors to manufacture and financially engineer a safer and better alternative to the USD.
What do an old German bank note, a current $100 bill, and an apple all have in common? The answer, according to ConvergEx's Nick Colas, is that these simple objects can tell us much about the current investment scene, ranging from Europe’s economic challenges to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s attempts to reduce unemployment. Colas takes an “object-ive” approach to analyzing the current investment landscape by describing 10 common items and how they shape our perceptions of reality. The other objects on our list: a hazmat suit, a house in Orlando, a barrel of oil, a Rolex watch, a butterfly, a heating radiator in Berlin, and a smartphone.
- Total CEO de Margerie killed in Moscow as jet hits snow plough (Reuters)
- China GDP Growth Rate Is Slowest in Five Years (WSJ)
- Oil at $80 a Barrel Muffles Forecasts for U.S. Shale Boom (BBG)
- Carney Faces Scrutiny on Worst Payments Outage Since 2007 (BBG)
- Ebola crisis turns a corner as U.S. issues new treatment protocols (Reuters)
- Gold Buying Rebounds in India on Diwali Jewelry Sales (BBG)
- China-backed hackers may have infiltrated Apple's iCloud (Reuters)
- Greece Said to Seek Recycling of Bank Funds for Exit (BBG)
yes, I know it feels soooo good. Hint: China is the dealer
- Stick to tapering and rates pledge, says Boston Fed chief (FT)
- Turkey to let Iraqi Kurds reinforce Kobani as U.S. drops arms to defenders (Reuters)
- Obama makes rare campaign trail appearance, some leave early (Reuters)
- Japan GPIF to Boost Share Allocation to About 25%, Nikkei Says (BBG)... or three months of POMO
- Japan Stocks Surge on Report GPIF to Boost Local Shares (BBG)
- China Growth Seen Slowing Sharply Over Decade (WSJ)
- Russia, Ukraine Edge Closer to Natural-Gas Deal (WSJ)
- Leveraged Money Spurs Selloff as Record Treasuries Trade (BBG)
- After clashes, Hong Kong students, government stand their ground before talks (Reuters)
And the overnight futures ramp started off so promising.
If there is a cabal running things, they are not doing a good job. Maybe they are not really running things. Here is what next week looks like if we did not know it was all pre-determined.
Not everything is as it seems. While the PBOC may be taking a stand on monetarism and its character, it has been very curious that the yuan has not fully participated in the dollar turmoil marking so many other “dollar” dependent nations. While the yuan’s appreciation trend may have been altered, that has not led again to the kind of disorder that marked the currency earlier in the year. Maybe that is due, at least in part, to these expectations that the PBOC will eventually relent on its new approach, but we also think that the PBOC is at least looking the other way on some of the “old tricks” that supported the Chinese version of the dollar short.
We suspect the market will be disappointed by this morning's headlines from China. Chinese rate markets are implying a RRR cut is coming soon (as swap rates drop below deposit rates - previously signaled 2 RRR cuts) but the PBOC announced this morning a muich more focused injection of cash to 20 of the nations' largest banks. RRR cuts, are (theoretically) considerably more broadly stimulative to lending than a $32.8 billion cash injection to banks - which are struggling to lend as demand for loans (given high costs of debt for the firms that need the money the most) is weak. One can only imagine the holes in bank balance sheets that exist if the PBOC is forced to do this. Simply put, no matter how much hope there is, as we noted previously, the PBOC will not be providing broad stimulus.
- Obama open to appointing Ebola 'czar', opposes travel ban (Reuters)
- Schools Close as Nurse’s Ebola Infection Ignites Concern (BBG)
- How the World's Top Health Body Allowed Ebola to Spiral Out of Control (BBG)
- European Stocks Rise Amid Growing Pressure for Stimulus (BBG)
- Putin Threatens EU Gas Squeeze Raising Stakes for Ukraine (BBG)
- ECB to Start Asset Purchases Within Days, Says Central Banker Coeuré (WSJ)
- Investors search for signs of end to stock market correction (Reuters)
From Bitcoin to the Swiss gold referendum, and from Chinese trade and North Korean leadership, Jim Rogers covers a lot of ground in this excellent interview with Boom-Bust's Erin Ade. Rogers reflects on the end of the US bull market. citing a number of factors from breadth to the end of QE, adding that he agrees with Albert Edwards' perspective that now is the time to "sell everything and run for your lives," as the "consequences of [The Fed] are now being felt." Most notably though, Rogers believes the de-dollarization is here to stay as Western sanctions force many nations to find alternatives. Simply put, Rogers concludes, "we are all going to pay a terrible price for all this money-printing and debt."
- M&A Bubble is bursting: AbbVie Says It Reconsiders Merger Pact With Shire (WSJ)
- Winner of bad headline timing award: Spinoffs Could Set Stage for Next Merger Wave (BBG) - and now wait for the spinoffs getting pulled
- Record mortgage settlement pushes Bank of America into third-quarter loss (Reuters)
- Korea joins the Japan currency war: Bank of Korea Cuts Base Rate (WSJ)
- Double Irish’s Slow Death Leaves Google Executives Calm (BBG)
- Global Oil Glut Sends Prices Plunging (WSJ)
- Slow Rise in Prices Shows China’s Economy Is Still Struggling (WSJ)
With this in mind we hope the Swiss people display their fierce independence and reject the advice of the "experts," many of whom got us into this mess, in favour of the policies that have kept them peaceful and prosperous for centuries ...