"If you want to hear the details of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal the Obama administration is hoping to pass, you’ve got to be a member of Congress, and you’ve got to go to classified briefings and leave your staff and cellphone at the door. If you’re a member who wants to read the text, you’ve got to go to a room in the basement of the Capitol Visitor Center and be handed it one section at a time, watched over as you read, and forced to hand over any notes you make before leaving. And no matter what, you can’t discuss the details of what you’ve read."
As a result of constant jawboning that the PBOC may not only cut rates even more but proceed to launch QE (which it will ultimately, just not for a while), both the Shanghai Composite has been trading at multi-year highs and oil has found a bid strong enough that in the past two months it has surged by some 50% on hopes that Chinese demand will finally come back once the local economy is so weak it leaves the PBOC no other choice. However, two things suggest that the great "reflation" trade is ending.
Here is more insight to the recent USD rally... And why nothing looks like it seems!
China, the world’s largest gold producer and buyer, feels its market weight should entitle it to be a price setter for gold bullion. It is asserting itself at a time when the established benchmark, the century-old London ‘gold fix’, is under scrutiny because of long-running allegations of price manipulation.
- ‘Flash Crash’ Overhaul Is Snarled in Red Tape (WSJ)
- ECB Considers Tighter Noose on Greek Banks (BBG)
- Dollar Falls as U.S. Data Cast Doubt on Fed Policy Tightening (BBG)
- Market U-Turn Rams Hedge Funds (WSJ)
- Greece makes 200 million euro IMF payment due Wednesday (Reuters)
- Greek unemployment was 25.4 percent in February (Reuters)
- J.P. Morgan’s Barista-Turned-Banker Sees Good Things Brewing (WSJ)
Yesterday, when we heard that China brokers may impose tighter margin requirements to contain what is now a laughable stock bubble we said that tonight's Shanghai session could get exciting: "China may get exciting: Some China Brokers Raise Margin Trading Requirement: Sec. News" It did: overnight the Shanghai Composite tumbled by 4.1% to under 4300, the biggest one day drop since January 19.
"China’s capital account might be closed—but it’s not that closed. Between 2003 and 2012, $1.3 trillion slipped out of mainland China—more than any other developing country... GFI says the most common way money leaks out in the developing world is through fake trade invoices. The other big culprit is “hot money,” likely due to corruption—which GFI gleans from inconsistencies in balance of payments data. In China, both activities have picked up since 2009." Just like in the U.S., the so-called government “stimulus” in China achieved nothing more than to stimulate an oligarch crime spree. Hence the global boom in $100 million real estate, art and everything extremely high-end. As intended, the bailouts and stimulus on a global basis went directly to the 0.0001%.
"At an extreme, investors could borrow RMB 85.7 for every RMB 100 of collateral in their portfolios. That suggests the theoretical ability to increase margin finance loans from the current 1.7 trillion yuan to as much as 9.4 trillion yuan," Bloomberg reports, citing a new note from Macquarie on China's margin-fueled equity rally. Meanwhile, Shanghai Securities News is reporting that at least two Chinese brokers are raising margin trading requirements, news we suspect will not go over well with China's legion of rabid day traders.
For the first time in more than ten years, the IMF believes the yuan is close to fairly valued. This comes as the fund considers the yuan for SDR inclusion later this year and as China attempts to promote the currency to a more prominent role in the global economy. Meanwhile, Bill Gates says that although he "loves the dollar" he'd "put his bet on yuan."
- Win or lose, Cameron's political career hangs by a thread (Reuters)
- Greece aims for deal with lenders, IMF hard on reforms: minister (Reuters)
- Greek Jobless Legacy Adds Danger for Tsipras as Funds Dry Up (BBG)
- U.S. Will Change Stance on Secret Phone Tracking (WSJ)
- China April HSBC PMI shows biggest drop in factory activity in a year (Reuters)
- Goldman Sachs in Talks to Sell Its Coal Mines (WSJ)
- Takeover Fuel Begins to Flow as S&P 500 Bull Run Makes History (BBG)
QUESTIONER: Just a few questions about other countries. A quick clarification on SDR, in January the managing director mentioned there would be an informal board briefing in May. Is that still happening, or has it been pushed back?
MR. RICE: .... the board meeting has been deferred because the work is underway and we'll let you know as soon as that board meeting is scheduled again....
Despite claiming that its “people’s Uber” service in China, involving private drivers, is simply a type of car-pooling service; the bubblicious company continues to burn its series ZZ financings on legal briefs around the world. That appears to be a total waste when it comes to China as IBTimes reports, police, transport and commercial officials in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou have raided the local offices of online car service company Uber, amid continuing tension in China over the legality of ride-booking apps using private vehicles, which officials say have disrupted the country’s heavily regulated taxi market.
An inauspicious start to China's local government debt swap initiative has the PBoC scrambling to determine the best way to facilitate the successful issuance of new municipal securities as several provinces have reportedly canceled or delayed offerings. Now, the question is whether Chinese LTROs will be enough, or whether outright QE will ultimately be the only option.
"How the agency obtains GDP figures is 'anybody’s guess,'" one economics professor tells WSJ, referring to the ambiguity surrounding China's official GDP data. Amid a worsening economic situation which includes industrial production data that doesn't match up to the headline GDP figures coming out of Beijing, analysts weigh in with their own projections for how the world's economic growth engine is really performing.
- Nepal earthquake toll crosses 3700 (Reuters)
- Greeks Add Pressure on Tsipras to Compromise as Talks Resume (BBG)
- With No Deal on Greek Bailout Aid in Sight, Some in Europe Suggest ‘Plan B’ (WSJ)
- BOJ Shouldn’t Ease Further; Yen Fell Enough: Business Lobby Head (BBG)
- Clinton Foundation admits making mistakes on taxes (Reuters)
- Here’s the Old Nemesis Starting to Spook Bond Traders Again (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank to Trim Investment Banking (WSJ)
- China’s Stocks Rise to Seven-Year High on SOE Merger Speculation (BBG)