Yuan

We are currently in a transitional phase of geo-political-monetary power struggles, capital flow decisions, and fundamental economic choices. This remains a period of artisanal (central bank fabricated) money, high volatility, low growth, excessive wealth inequality, extreme speculation, and policies that preserve the appearance of big bank liquidity and concentration at the expense of long-term stability. The potential for chaotic fluctuations in any element of the capital markets is greater than ever. The butterfly effect - the flutter of a wing in one part of the planet altering the course of seemingly unrelated events in another part - is on center stage.

• Global share market settles after stormy start to year (Reuters)
• Stocks Extend Losses as Yen, Gold Rise on Lingering China Unease (BBG)
• China battles to shore up stocks, yuan after globe-shaking slide (Reuters)
• Volkswagen faces billions in penalties as U.S. sues for environment violations (Reuters)
• Obama tightens gun rules, requires more background checks (Reuters)

After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

Update: It's a miracle..."Someone" stepped in and bid the entire Chinese market higher off its huge opening gap down...

Despite the biggest liquidity injection (CNY130bn) in 4 months, it appears Kyle Bass' top trade remains well on target as Offshore Yuan plunges, underperforming Onshore Yuan despite the largest Fix devaluation in two months. In a word - it's chaos in Chinese markets. The Shanghai Composite looks to be opening down 3% - extending yesterday's losses (beyond the US session's ADR's move). What a mess.

From EM darling to depression, it's been a rough ride for the "B" in BRICS. As we kick off 2016, analysts are growing increasingly concerned that Brazil's economic downturn could well be deeper and longer than anyone expected. The market's collapsing expectations are summarized in one stunning chart.

"The United States equity market has a down year. Stocks suffer from weak earnings, margin pressure (higher wages and no pricing power) and a price- earnings ratio contraction. Investors keeping large cash balances because of global instability is another reason for the disappointing performance."

It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...

Following the initial halt in CSI-300 Futures at the 5% limit down level, the afternoon session opened to more carnage and amid the worst 'first day of the year' in at least 15 years, Chinese stocks collapsed further to a 7% crash. At 1334 local time, stock trading was halted for the rest of the day across all exchanges (at least two hours early). Dow futures are now down over 150 points from NYE close, Gold and Treasuries are bid, and offshore Yuan has plunged most since the August devaluation.

With China closing the morning session limit down (and Yuan collapsing), US equity futures are extending their losses (even though crude futures are holding some of their gains). The initial knee-jerk jump as crude rose on Saudi tensions has been entirely erased and Dow Futures are now down 300 points from New Year's Eve highs... Happy New Year.

Earlier in the session, after the surge in oil prices on fears of a spike in belligerence between Saudi Arabia and Iran, bulls were hopeful that after a poor close to 2015, at least the first trading day of 2016 would set a positive mood: after all, if there is one thing war is good for, it is to lift stock markets. And it did... for about 3 hours.  Then moments ago, Caixin Media and Markit Economics released the latest December PMI, which was, in a word, a total disaster, one which promptly sent US equity futures sliding, and the Shanghai Composite tumbling some 4%... and CSI-300 Limit down.

Important pillars of the bull case evaporated throughout 2015. Global price pressures weakened, the global Credit backdrop deteriorated and the global economy decelerated. The huge bets on central bank policies left markets at high risk for abrupt reversals and trade unwinds – 2015 The Year of the Erratic Crowded Trade. Indeed, a global bear market commenced yet most remain bullish. Serious and objective analysts would view this ominously.

The deeper we dig into the story of Dubai's vaporized gold, the more skeletons just tumble out of the closet on what may be the world's biggest gold smuggling ring ever, one involving not just Turkey and Iran, but the mother of all gold smuggling: China itself...

For those wondering what comes to mind for the average Chinese web surfer with regard to nations in Europe, we present the following map from Foreign Policy who “plotted the most common Chinese-language Baidu query for each European nation.” Highlights include "likes to fight" for Russia, "why doesn't it annex Portugal" for Spain, and "beautiful women" for Ukraine.

The latest Chinese company to mysteriously "misplace" its books and as a result be unable to make an upcoming bond payment is China Shanshui Cement: "a former director of Shandong Shanshui, together with a group of gangsters, barged into the Headquarters by force on 27 December 2015, destroyed the properties in the offices therein and assaulted the employees of Shandong Shanshui."

Yesterday, in keeping with what has become a daily tradition, we asked a simple question: "Which hedge fund will close today." It turns out that despite our intention, the question was not rhetorical because just a few hours later Bloomberg answered, when it reported that the latest hedge fund casualty was another iconic, long-term investor: Scott Bommer's SAB Capital, which as of a year ago managed $1.1 billion, and which is now returning all outside money.