China's key index, the Shanghai Composite, was is up over 1%, or 40 points in early, to just under 3,500 - the highest in 2 months, a gain which however is well below Friday's pre-rate cut gain and if prior rate cut history is any indication, not to mention the weak reaction by commodities on Friday (continuing into today, where WTI turned green by the smallest of margins just seconds ago we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs.
Doing as Yellen and her counterparts demand is the biggest risk of all. The Yellen Doctrine requires that central banks be both correct and able, abilities that have been (and can only be) in utter short supply. Her view would show more proactive and effective central bank management where only reactive and impromptu, last minute white-knuckling has abounded. Central banks have been in the past year only holding on for dear life, which is where obscurity has been their benefit. In the end, however, it will bring about their own downfall as it only serves to make matters worse. Yellen wants the central bank to be viewed as almost godlike, but they continually reveal themselves weak, deceptive and ineffectual; eschewing all long run sustainability in order to just make it through one day at a time.
Since China devalued the Yuan and surprised the world's carry traders (and central planners) by stirring up FX volatility, the demand for 'paper' gold has begun converging to the demand for physical precious metals. Gold prices are now up over $100 since August 10th, but it is another (easier to 'transport') alternative currency that has soared. Bitcoin has spike post-China-devaluation (since dipping on 'governance' concerns), accelerating from under $200 to almost $300 today, and up 25% since our September 2 explanation why China's capital account crackdown is "great news" for bitcoin.
With the biggest 2-day plunge in 9 months, EURUSD has broken back to a 1.09 handle this morning. It appears Mario Draghi has officially become US Corporate CEOs greatest nemesis (along with BoJ's Kuroda) as The USD Index surges to 3-month highs...
The bottom line is that the "internationalization" and an increasing free float of the Yuan is bearish. And since the currency urgently needs even more devaluation as today's PBOC rate cut confirmed, this may just be the IMF's way of greenlighting even more devaluation for China's currency. And since any devaluation would lead to a surge in capital outflows, what the IMF is doing is merely blessing the Yuan's weakness while pretending it is in a position of strength, in an attempt to slow down the capital outflow as much as possible.
- China's central bank cuts rates for sixth time since November (Reuters)
- Global stocks hit two-month high on dovish Draghi message (Reuters)
- $6.5 Billion in Energy Writedowns and We're Just Getting Started (BBG)
- Alphabet, formerly Google, sets share buyback, shares jump (Reuters)
- Hurricane Patricia, Stronger Than Katrina, Nears Mexico (BBG)
- TVA Cleared to Start First New U.S. Nuclear Power Plant in Nearly 20 Years (WSJ)
Chinese stocks are not as exuberant as European, Japanese (which are rolling over), and US markets at the open as they cling to unchanged for the day and week (despite margin debt rising to a six-week high). The main event in AsiaPac trading appears to be a huge re-entry into the EUR-ANY-EM-FX carry trade as The USDollar gets pummeled against Asian FX (despite EUR weakness). PBOC weakened the Yuan fix by the most in 8 days to its lowest in 2 weeks.
China Calms Fears, Says "Stock Plunge Is Normal Correction" As Panic-Buying Resumes On Japanese OpenSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2015 20:35 -0500
After last night's bloodbathery in China, analysts and officials are out en masse to ensure a newly re-leveraged Chinese investors that the "stock plunge is a normal correction." Disappointingly, Chinese stocks are barely bouncing at the open, which is not what we can say for Japan, where the mysterious uneconomic panic-buyer-of-first-resort appeared once again and smashed the Nikkei 225 200 points higher at the open (after weakness in the US).
Much like the NBS will obscure any weakness below 7% in China’s GDP data, the PBoC will do “whatever it takes” (central bank pun fully intended) to make sure the market doesn’t get wind of the fact that there’s still a tremendous amount of pressure in terms of capital outflows. As Bloomberg reports, "The People’s Bank of China and local lenders increased their holdings in onshore forwards to $67.9 billion in August, positions that would boost China’s currency against the dollar. The amount is five times more than the average in the first seven months."
"As examples of products that were not made entirely in the US — contrary to their billing — it highlighted a sandwich bag that was produced in Thailand and a toy car that was assembled in the US with some imported parts, including a Chinese steering wheel."
- Global Stock Markets Edge Higher Though Global Growth Concerns Weigh (WSJ)
- Nikkei up 1.9% because Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession (Reuters)
- Saudis Risk Draining Financial Assets in 5 Years, IMF Says (BBG)
- Syria's Assad flies to Moscow to thank Russia's Putin for air strikes (Reuters)
- US Prosecutor Preet Bharara Probing Daily Fantasy-Sports Business (WSJ)
- Syrian army denies Russian ground forces fighting in Syria (Reuters)
It's Back To The Future As Stocks, Futures Jump On The Latest Abysmal Economic News; China Tremors ReturnSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2015 05:57 -0500
26 years ago, today was envisioned as day when cars flew, holographic movies were box office hits, hoverboards roamed, and people were fired by fax. None of the happened. Instead the only "back to the future" moment this morning is a deja vu one we have seen every day for the past 7 years: bad economic news leading to surging stocks.
Offshore-Onshore Yuan Spread At 1-Month Wides Hinting At Outflows As Japanese Stocks 'Mysteriously' Meltup At The OpenSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/20/2015 20:22 -0500
Since China GDP was unleashed, Offshore Yuan (CNH) has weakened significantly relative to Onshore Yuan (CNY). After over 3 weeks of 'stability' with CNY and CNH on top of each other, it appears selling pressure has reappeared suggesting outflows are on the rise (despite PBOC's best efforts to hide/manage them) which may explain why Treasuries were so relatively weak today. The "will-never-learn" Chinese investors pile in once again extending the period of margin debt increases to the most since the peak of the bubble. AsiaPac stocks are mixed with China flat and Japan higher after a mysterious bidder lifted NKY 200 points instantly at the open after disastrous trade data. China strengthened the Yuan fix after 5 days of weakness.
- Canada's Trudeau topples PM Harper in shock election win (Reuters)
- Where Canada’s Harper Hit Hurdles (WSJ)
- Pugnacious Trudeau Steps Out of Father's Shadow and Into Power (BBG)
- European Stocks Decline, Euro Rallies as ECB QE Optimism Fades (BBG)
- Valeant, Under Pressure About Price Increases, Plans Changes (WSJ)
- Syrian rebels say they receive more weapons for Aleppo battle (Reuters)
After yesterday's closing ramp "prudently" just ahead of an abysmal IBM earnings report with the lowest revenues since 2002, and the latest rally in capital markets which sent European stocks to their highest level since August on the back of a barrage of global bad data which has unleashed the Pavlovian liquidity dogs screaming for moar central bank bailouts, this morning has seen a modest decline in the Stoxx 600 driven by energy names, while S&P500 futures are set to open lower on IBM's disappointment at least until the latest massive BOJ USDJPY buying spree sends the pair to 120 and the S&P solidly in the green. The biggest political event overnight was the Canadian election, where Trudeau's liberals swept PM Harper from power, capping the biggest political comeback in the country's history; the Canadian dollar is largely unchanged after initially weakening then rising.