Keys in the week ahead: equity markets--still look lower; China--volatility likely to continue; Fed--market says no Sept hike
Despite Upping The QE-Ante, Europe Will Sink Into Deflation, Trigging The Next Round Of The Global Market CrashSubmitted by Secular Investor on 09/06/2015 08:14 -0400
Mario Draghi has no more magic bullets left...
China’s islanding building on the four-mile-long and two-mile-wide Subi Reef in the South China Sea has put The US in a tight spot. To protect its ally from China’s aggression, The US will be left with little choice but to constrain China by military means. However, the US won't directly engage China in the war in the foreseeable future, because the US dominates China with its superior naval and air force and the only way for China to level the playing field is to apply nuclear weapons. The nuclear nature of Sino-American warfare will make both the world no.1 and no.2 economy the fallen giants. So there is a possibility that The US might use its oil weapon instead to strike at the core of China’s weakness - it’s huge dependence on oil import.
"If the pace of FX intervention remains at USD86bn per month, we estimate that the PBoC could lose up to USD510bn of its reserves between June and December 2015, which would represent a nonnegligible decline of 14%."
Given the global implications of what’s going on in China’s stock market and the fact that the yuan devaluation is set to accelerate the great EM FX reserve unwind while simultaneously driving a stake through the heart of beleaguered emerging economies from LatAm to AsiaPac it’s wholly understandable that everyone should focus on equities and FX. That said, understanding the scope of the risk posed by China’s many spinning plates means not forgetting about the other problems Beijing faces, not the least of which is a massive collection of debt.
In a stunningly honest admission from a member of the elite, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China’s central bank, exclaimed multiple times this week to his G-20 colleagues that a bubble in his country had "burst." While this will come as no surprise to any rational-minded onlooker, the fact that, as Bloomberg reports, Japanese officials also confirmed Zhou's admissions, noting that "many people [at the G-20] expressed concerns about the Chinese market," and added that "discussions [at the G-20 meeting] hadn't been constructive" suggests all is not well in the new normal uncooperative G-0 reality in which we live.
There is no better way to describe the international monetary system today than through the statement made in 1971 by U.S. Treasury Secretary, John Connally. He said to his counterparts during a Rome G-10 meeting in November 1971, shortly after the Nixon administration ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold and shifted the international monetary system into a global floating exchange rate regime that, "The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” This remains the U.S. policy towards the international community even today. On several occasions both the past and present chairpersons of the Fed, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, have indicated it still is the U.S. policy as it concerns the dollar. Is China saying to the world, but more particularly to the U.S., “The yuan is our currency but your problem”?
Divegence driver of the dollar was never predicated on a particular time frame for the Fed's lift-off. Others are easing. Trajectory is the key. Here is my sense of the near-term dollar outlook, wiht a look at some other asset markets as well.
"This Time May Be Different": Desperate Central Banks Set To Dust Off Asia Crisis Playbook, Goldman WarnsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/04/2015 18:00 -0400
"The room to ease policy further, i.e., to adopt counter-cyclical policies, is now much more limited than in the past. To the contrary, in some cases monetary tightening may be needed (despite weaker real business cycles) in order to continue to attract foreign capital, anchor domestic currencies and preserve the integrity of the respective inflation targeting frameworks. Hence, we may soon enter a period of weaker FX and higher policy and market rates: i.e., market dynamics that would resemble more the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis."
Things were already bad enough for emerging markets going into August. Persistently low commodity prices, slumping demand from China, depressed global trade, and a “diminutive” septuagenarian waving around a loaded rate hike pistol in the Eccles Building had served to put an enormous amount of pressure on the world’s emerging economies. And then, the unthinkable happened.
Moments ago, US equity futures tumbled to their lowest level in the overnight session, down 22 points or 1.1% to 1924, following both Europe (Eurostoxx 600 -1.8%, giving up more than half of yesterday's gains, led by the banking sector) and Japan (Nikkei -2.2%), and pretty much across the board as DM bonds are bid, EM assets are all weaker, oil and commodities are lower in what is shaping up to be another EM driven "risk off" day. Only this time one can't blame the usual scapegoat China whose market is shut for the long weekend.
News That Matters
All eyes will be on Mario Draghi on Thursday as expectations for something big from the former Goldmanite have grown over the past two weeks. More specifically, some now think the odds of QE expansion have increased considerably in light of collapsing eurozone inflation expectations, the incipient threat of some $1 trillion in QE-offsetting EM FX reserve draw downs, turmoil in China's financial markets, heightened volatility across the globe, and chaos in emerging markets from LatAm to AsiaPac.