We focus on two separate sets of SAFE data to gauge the underlying FX flow situation: one on onshore FX settlement, and the other on the cross-border movement of RMB. Summing up, the gauge of underlying flow indicates a net FX outflow of US$78bn in September (US$33bn from net FX demand onshore plus US$45bn in FX outflow routed through the CNH market).
Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.
For the 10th day of the last 11, onshore yuan has weakened against the dollar. A 0.35% devaluation of the Yuan fix - the most since August - catching down to offshore Yuan's weakness, suggests (for now) PBOC policy is 'allowing' the drop and perhaps sending yet another 'turmoil-induing' message to The Fed as their hawkishness grows.
A couple of trillion dollars of freshly created debt and a collapsing currency (which did nothing for the trade balance which was described as "not very solid" by authorities) along with a dead stock market, a bond market at record low yields (unconvinced at any recovery) and a housing bubble and China's National Statistics Bureau 'nails it' with 'meets' across the board (albeit Industrial production disappointed).
"From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. The current pace of credit growth in China is realistically in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September. Relative to GDP, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016" - Barclays
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte arrived in China to meet with Chinese Premier Xi Xinping. Duterte has become a very controversial figure in Asian politics as he has publicly excoriated U.S. President Barack Obama’s treatment of him and his country. Duterte's trip to China this week is very bad news for Clinton and Obama and it is very likely that the Asian Pivot policy will unravel in short order.
World stocks started the week in the red Monday as the dollar touched a 7-month high and U.S. and European government bond yields climbed to their highest since June following the Friday speeches by Eric Rosengren and Janet Yellen which hinted the Fed's next step could be to pursue a steepening of the TSY yield curve the same as the BOJ.
“There’s no clear explanation on the sudden drop,” said Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi Hong Kong. “But most investors are deeply concerned about the yuan’s depreciation and capital outflows as the yuan approaches 6.8. Overall market sentiment is very poor and selling in the B-shares index is spreading.”
On August 31, in what was dubbed a "historic event", the World Bank became the first issuer of bonds denominated in SDR and settled in yuan when it sold 500 million SDR units worth of bonds in China. Then, overnight, in yet another historic event, Standard Chartered Bank said it has obtained approval from the PBOC to be the first commercial issuer of bonds denominated in SDRs in China’s interbank bond market.
One day after a slump in Chinese trade sparked a global market selloff on concerns the world's second biggest economy had once again hit a downward inflection point, overnight China surprised once again, this time to the upside when the latest inflationary data printed hotter than expected, sending European and Asian stocks higher and pushing the yen lower after China’s producer price index rose for the first time since March 2012.
The market continues to “buy into” growing long-term narrative that CBs are shifting from notional “flow” of QE purchases to yield targeting / curve steepening goals and desire for more fiscal policy. To anybody being intellectually honest, this should be interpreted in the long-term as “a path to tightening.” Long-end weakens, curves steepen.