Just 11 days into 2016, Goldman has been stopped out of one of its 6 "top trades for 2016" following a 5.4% loss on its "long large-cap US banks" trade as these "relatively well-priced, trading just above book value" assets turned out to be relatively unwell priced...
- David Bowie, musical legend behind Ziggy Stardust, dies at 69 from cancer (Reuters)
- With No Powerball Winners, Jackpot Grows to Estimated $1.3 Billion (ABC)
- Stock Gains Short-Lived as Chinese Volatility Hurts Oil, Metals (BBG)
- China's yuan spikes higher, but stocks tumble (Reuters)
- Arch Coal Files for Bankruptcy (WSJ)
- Yuan Loan Rates Soar in Hong Kong as PBOC Halts Currency's Slide (BBG)
- China stocks close down at lowest level since September (Reuters)
- Fed Eyes Margin Rules to Bolster Oversight (WSJ)
Initially both European stocks and US equity futures were grateful that China has picked at least one asset class to prop up overnight, and rose in an extremely illiquid market with European shares gaining for first time in 4 days, as S&P futures rise even as the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index just fell to the lowest level in more than 4 years. However, as of moments ago the Stoxx 600 had faded all its earlier gains and was trading near the flatline, as an algo takes out all stops on the top and bottom once more, and looks set to move on to US futures shortly.
Chinese stocks are trading at the lows of the day after Overnight HIBOR rates (Hong Kong's interbank borrowing rate) exploded a stunning 939bps to a record high 13.4%. It is clear that banks are utterly desperate for liquidity and/or are extremely concerned about one another's counterparty risk. This has dragged HSCEI down 5% (to its lowest since Oct 2011).
Somebody had to do something...
As China’s leaders figure out that pegging the yuan to the dollar while quintupling their debt in five years was a colossal mistake, they are, apparently, concluding that the only way out is a sudden, sharp currency devaluation...
Ming Pao, the most influential Chinese newspaper in Hong Kong, reports that Shanghai residents are lining up at local banks to sell Yuan for Dollars over fears of even more Yuan devaluation.
We believe there is a chance of disruption and highly illiquid conditions in the forex market during the coming weeks (and/or months). Please be aware that market gaps tend to occur over the weekend – that is, currencies trade at prices considerably distant from previous levels.
It was an ominous beginning to what is poised to be a most tumultuous year. Market participants are quickly coming to appreciate that China does in fact matter. Few understand why. Most – from billionaires to fund managers to retail investors – will “Do Nothing.” This has worked just fine in the past – repeatedly. Not understanding and not doing anything will be detriments going forward.
how many billions (or trillions) did China's so-called "national team" spend to prop up stocks in recent months? According to Goldman not less than CNY1.8 trillion in the June-November period.
An unseen bubble at the heart of the financial system is deflating with unknown consequences. When bubbles deflate, and here we are talking about one in the hundreds of trillions, bad debts are usually exposed. Even though much of the reduction in outstanding OTC derivatives is due to consolidation of positions following the Frank Dodd Act, much of it is not. When free markets reassert themselves, and they always do, the disruption promises to be substantial. We appear to be in the early stages of this event. If so, demand for physical gold can be expected to escalate rapidly as a financial crisis unfolds.
At this point, the longer China does nothing, the greater its problems will become. As such Beijing needs to choose: either collapse the economy in a deflationary wave, leading to a debt crisis and widespread social unrest, or devalue massively overnight in hopes of stimulating inflation, leading to collapsing profit margins, and even more widespread social unrest.In short, our condolences China: having decided to adopt Western neo-Keynesian economics, with the typical monetarist bent, you too are now trapped with no way out. But don't worry: so is everyone else. Good luck.
The entire risk paradigm is shifting more so than it already has. Commodities and “money” more broadly are winning the argument, so to speak, having declared long ago greater downside risks. This is increasingly taking on the proportions of a global reset.
"The burn rate has been worrying. It’s not about how long it gets to zero, its about how long it gets to about 2, which is what they need."
The sole focus of gold in dollar terms and the 10% fall of gold priced in dollars has led to some negative comment about gold's annual fall, the "third year of losses."