Weekend Poll: Buffett Or Gross - Inflation Or Deflation? (Or Neither)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Differential_accumulation

Stagflation in differential accumulation theory

Differential accumulation theory sees stagflation oscillate inversely with periods where mergers and acquisitions are dominant as a major strategy of dominant capital groups to "beat the market" or exceed the normal, average rate of return on investments. If too many people try to "beat the average" a market imbalance results. Stagflation, which appears as a crisis at the societal level, contributes significantly to differential accumulation at the disaggregate level, that is, of dominant capital groups accumulating faster than smaller businesses. Since the 20th century, the dominant capital group which has benefited from stagflation has been the "weapon-dollar-petrodollar coalition" during periods of Mid-east crises and rising oil prices. These periods have oscillated between periods of relative "peace" during which mergers and acquisitions have been the dominant strategy for beating the average.

 

I voted for the last option as all the previous options apply.

First deflation, then inflation, then we is all Bitchez.

Hoping for deflation for most of the populations of the world, yet fearing inflation will come instead.

I took the fourth alternative because it seemed closest to what I believe. As deflation edges closer the government will start giving out cash, but it won't matter because no one will spend it. We won't fall into a deflationary spiral because there will be all sorts of government programs and they will fudge the numbers. We will simply live in a period of no real growth, high unemployment and high deficits until we cannot sustain it any longer. That might take 10-20 years or it might be a relatively short period. No one knows and guessing at it makes no sense.

 

Great format, Tyler! Looking forward to a follow-up vote. This is the stuff that makes ZH the Center of the Universe (!)

Betting against Buffett is one of the better strategies out there. He's in bed with the GS/Fed cabal and he will share their fate.

 

The wife and I caught the premeire of "I.O.U.S.A" a couple of years ago... Buffett's performance was nauseating & shameless.  I put Buffett into the same scumbucket as Blankfein, Geithner, Bernanke, Paulson, Gramm, Rubin, Summers, Dodd, Frank, et al.

 

Hellflation.

Inflation. The very second "deflation" sets hold, everyone will receive a $2k cheque in the mail.

Both will occur. The Fed simply delayed the inevitable. That a period of deflation was in evidence in the CPI numbers as the banks collapsed and the Fed spread fiat from helicopters. Deflation will be followed by a period of rapid inflation as the Fed finds itself with no other bullets to fire.

It's like hanging a guy and just as he drops from the scaffolding, he gets his hands free and reaches under the rope around his neck. He doesn't die swiftly...he dies a much slower agonizing death. Heaven help those politicians without chairs when the music stops.

How can you go with anything other than the 4th option - which is it though "abomination" or "obamination"?

If you have it and don't want it, the price is going down.

If you need it and don't have it, the price is going up.

If you have it and can't afford it, somebody will be forced to buy it from you.

If you don't have it and don't want it, you'll be required to buy it for someone else.

Seems clear enough.

bankruptcy awaits.

seems to me FOFOA has a pretty good handle on this when he sees deflation in "luxury items" and rising inflation in necessities. in other words anything that requires excessive leverage will face the ongoing deflation inherent in credit contraction, whereas commodities and especially "necessities" will be bid up by a decreasing real money supply via dollar devaluation. inflation doesn't mean we'll see the streets awash in a flood of paper money. money will always be hard to come by. the dollar will just go to zero when weighed against commodities for which it is exchanged.

This is like having a poll as to whether the moon is made out of cheese.

It's a fact, the system is in deflationary spiral.  Money supply(credit) peaked in 2007 in dollar terms and has been shrinking ever since.

See Federal Reserve Z1 report.

 

 

Depends on your time frame. Everything has deflated* from pre-crisis levels. Gold is not an inflation hedge but a hedge against uncertainty. 

* stubbornly unsustainable high prices or manipulation including,

 

• Monopolies (utilities, insurance, prescription drugs, stamps)
• Government manipulated (healthcare, prescription drugs, passport renewals, taxes, stamps)
• Lagging indicators (food behemoths have adjusted down-others will be insolvent)

True signs of deflation are in USD, UST's and other credit markets.  PS If you want to witness an inflationary collapse, look to India and Australia. India is already seeing double digit inflation and the Australian government will not let the economy correct......even if it takes a coup d'état to oust a democratically elected prime minister.  I'm still tossing up on China.

 

It doesn't really matter to me any more, because we're all fucking doomed. With massive crop failure, record droughts, floods and locusts destroying crops at the same time, all we need is a black swan to land on the bow of the S.S. USA to finish her off. We'll all be living hand to mouth soon enough.

voted for stagflation. We will be fucked anyway.

My real choice is missing from your list. Perhaps that's because there's currently no term to accurately describe it. Yet. Stagflation implies stagnant jobs creation combined with consumer and producer price inflation which includes wage inflation as in the 1970s which the term "stagflation" was meant to describe. 

The scenario I envision, which has already begun to take shape, is a combination of deflating incomes, jobs deflation, deflating real assets and retirement assets combined with inflation in the cost of living for consumers and cost inputs for business. In the stagflation days, wage and price inflation occurred in the context of large growth in aggregate demand from young boomers. In the current scenario, aggregate demand will be weak. Other darker forces will drive inflation such as the side effects of a global dollar glut, excessive Fed and ECB "reflation policy", China growth, uneven resource distribution and utilization, and zombie developed world economies suffering from high sovereign debt and servicing costs. 

So unlike stagflation, the context will not be growth and wage inflation. IE it won't be "Stag". It will be "IndieFlation" (as in 'In_De_Flation"). 

I think we are in the opposite of stagflation.  We will have stagnant growth but because of contraction in people willing to take on debt to make purchases and what not, the money supply will contract.  The prices of goods will remain the same but the chance of getting a raise is 0, bonuse 0, you will have the same pay today as you will in 10 years.  The price of goods will be relatively flat throughout this except housing but it will take 5 years before failed government programs to keep it from falling to allow state and local governments to not deflate. 

Investments during this period will return crap unless it is an industry that finally becomes proffitable through growth (solar lol?).  People taking on bonds and debt from companies returning 1% are insane.  Cash will eventually grow in value and crush everyone in these obligations on both sides of the trade.

VOTE RESULTS BROADCASTED LIVE FROM THE ZEROHEDGE CENTRE:

"AND THEIR OFF.......WHAT A START......'Passed Point 'No Return' LEADING ON THE.... OUTSIDE.......FOLLOWED BY 'Stagflation Bitches'.....ITS ALMOST NECK AND NECK FOLKS WITH 'Gross Deflation' GAINING FROM BEHIND....... WELL WHAT A SURPRISE WE HAVE TODAY FOLKS.......WE HAVE 'Buffet Inflation'. LAGGING FAR BEHIND ON THE INSIDE........OHHHH WHAT A RACE......KEEP TUNED IN FOLKS FOR THE WINNER WHO WILL BE ANNOUNCED LATER THIS EVENING.......SEE YA FOLKS....SAME PHAT TIME SAME PHAT CHANNEL"

Both: inflation in everything you need, and deflation in paper assets and assets that were bought with leverage.