Go to 1:45 in this video and listen carefully for at least 5 minutes (you'd probably want to watch more if you have an interest in truth in reporting, competent analysis, or simply the truth). Keep in mind that this interview was done in February, no crystal balls, just spreadsheets and common sense. Independent news has truly come into its own.
Remember, I warned readers to Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth! I gave subscribers (click here to subscribe) explicit proof that another Greek default was right around the corner. That's right! Direcly after the Greek default in March of this year!!!! Subscribers, see Greek debt restructuring maturity extension blog - March 2012 (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy). And in today's MSM fare: Greece Warns of Going Broke as Tax Proceeds Dry Up
As European leaders grapple with how to preserve their monetary union, Greece is rapidly running out of money.
Nikos Lekkas, a government official, said banks had hindered his efforts to collect back taxes.
Government coffers could be empty as soon as July, shortly after this month’s pivotal elections. In the worst case, Athens might have to temporarily stop paying for salaries and pensions, along with imports of fuel, food and pharmaceuticals.
Officials, scrambling for solutions, have considered dipping into funds that are supposed to be for Greece’s troubled banks. Some are even suggesting doling out i.o.u.’s.
Greek leaders said that despite their latest bailout of 130 billion euros, or $161.7 billion, they face a shortfall of 1.7 billion euros because tax revenue and other sources of potential income are drying up. A wrenching recession and harsh budget cuts have left businesses and individuals with less and less to give for taxes — and growing incentive to avoid paying what they owe.''
But...but... but didn't I warn everybody of this as far back as 2010 and as recently as last February?
Government expenditures have outstripped revenues ever since 2007 and have gotten worse nearly every year since, despite 3 bailouts a restructuring, austerity and a default!
The budget gap is widening as the so-called troika of lenders — the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — withholds 1 billion euros in bailout money earmarked for government financing while it waits to see whether new leaders elected June 17 will honor Greece’s commitments.
Even if the troika delivers that money, Greece will struggle to cover its obligations. It underscored a harsh reality that is playing out in other troubled euro zone economies. Prolonged austerity is making it harder, not easier, for governments like Greece to become self-reliant again.
Go figure! As excerpted from Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!
Despite extensive, self-defeating, harsh and punitive austerity measures that have combined with a lack of true economic stimulus, Greece has (to date) failed to achieve Primary Balance. For the non-economists in the audience, primary balance is the elimination of a primary deficit, yet the absence of a primary surplus, ex. the midpoint between deficit and surplus before taking into consideration interest payments.
The primary balance looks at the structural issues a country may have. The best analogy I’ve heard for the Grecian situation is the highly indebted family that has binged on credit cards creating huge interest and debt service payments. They then lose the earning power of one of the parents at the same time that a spike in medical bills and household repairs (ex. Murphy’s law) dig deeper into family finances. The family is then forced to continue spending via credit cards to meet these unforeseen expenses.
In short, the main reason for Greece requiring additional funding is its primary deficit but the main reason why this latest (as well as the two rounds before this latest) round of bailout funding won’t work is Greece’s primary deficit.
A top Spanish official acknowledged on Tuesday that Spain could not readily return to the markets to raise money because investors are demanding such high rates, highlighting how the debt crisis is spreading to larger economies in Europe.
Again, BoomBustBlog made this clear early in 2010. Surprise you should be not! Be sure to note the date on the articles below...
- The Coming Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis – introduces the crisis and identified it as a pan-European problem, not a localized one... As a matter of fact, I directly and explicitly compared the plights of Greece vs Spain 2 years and 4 months ago, yes before anyone even publicly admitted Greece would have to default, not to mention Spain!!!
- The Coming Pan-European Soverign Debt Crisis, Pt 4: The Spread to Western European Countries
- The Depression is Already Here for Some Members of Europe, and It Just Might Be Contagious!
Fastforward to years, and as luck will have it - The Economic Bloodstain From Spain's Pain Will Cause European Tears To Rain.
Oh, and here comes that Grecian Circular Argument again. What circular argument you query? Well simply read How Greece Killed Its Own Banks! and remember that this article was written in the beginning of 2010, when the bonds were trading for much more then they were right before they defaulted! then reference Greece Reports: "Circular Reasoning Works Because Circular Reasoning Works" - Or - Here Comes That Default!!!
That has left a caretaker government scrambling for a Plan B. One thought is to take billions of euros reserved for recapitalizing Greek banks, which have suffered from a flight of deposits amid political uncertainty and fears that Greece may abandon the euro for its own currency.
But using that money would require the troika’s approval. Other notions, like i.o.u.’s and scrip, so far are only that — ideas.
Next up I will consider releasing my research on what wil probably be the most profitable (US) CRE short of the year - GGP part 2!