This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Obama’s All In Bet - Plus - Social Security at Mid-Year
The Treasury department’s private bank, the Federal Financing Bank (FFB) issues monthly reports. For some reason they have delayed recent releases. The March data came out on Friday.
I believe that the activities of the FFB will be a campaign issue before too long, Maybe that is why the tardy release of data. If a politician wanted to blast the Administration, the lending to the private sector by the FFB would be a good place to look for some ammo. Consider the money that went out the door, and who got it in March:
.
.
.
.
.
The numbers for 2012 through June have been released by Social Security (SS). Revenues are up from the first six months of 2011. Expenses are shooting through the roof. Some year over year comparisons:
The YoY revenue increase at SS is a reflection of the slightly improved economy. The following is a look at the monthly revenue numbers for 2011/2012:
.
These revenue numbers tell the same story that the overall economy is telling. The first quarter economic results were above trend (possibly due to weather?) the second quarter is showing clear signs of deceleration.
If the economy continues to slow in the second half of the year (a sure bet at this point), SS’s numbers will follow the economy south. Based on all of the cash inflows and outflows at SS, I’m now projecting a cash loss at SS for the full year 2012 of $60B (-$48B in 2011). All of that shortfall must be funded with debt issued to the public. Whatever your expectations were for the federal borrowing requirements for the rest of the year, you can add another $50+B onto the list.
There are economic headwinds wherever you look these days. The biggest obstacle for the USA is the fiscal cliff of 1/1/2013. The most optimistic scenario that I can imagine for US 2013 GDP is +2%. If the country were able to squeak out that much growth, it would still be very bad news for SS. If growth averages just 2% in 2013, then SS’s cash deficits will top $100B.
I leave with a note from the CBO. It put out a very important paper this week on the status of the budget and what the country is faced with. The report runs 105 pages, there is only one sentence that matters:
It is not possible both to keep taxes at their historical average share of gross domestic product (GDP) and to keep the laws unchanged for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
I hope that some of the deciders read this report.
.
.
- advertisements -










Tesla loses 250M/yr and does not appear to have a prayer of ever making a profit. So why shouldnt we lend them another 70M? They'rs good for it right? Uh no - they only see losses for the forseeable future. maybe they're politically connected to Bamy and the dems - yup!
If you are over 62, losing your unemployment benefits, and can't find a job what do you do? Retire early.
I'd like my $500 million now please, I'll forfeit my S.S. and I SWEAR I'll pay the money back (just like Solyndra).
Social security is neither.
Bruce,
Once again you have provided information that is totally absent from the MSM. As I'm short TSLA via puts the loan thing is obviously actionable for me and explains why that loser refuses to really crash like GRPN. (FSLR is crashing nicely however, so I can be patient with TSLA). So, once the loans stop after Obama is out TSLA will go the way of FSLR. So, I'll likely roll my June 33 TSLA puts out to Sept or so, when its clear Obama is going down big time.
Those SS numbers give a nice picture of the contraction now taking place. No one does a better job of keeping ZHers up on the situation with SS. A big thanks from one of your loyal readers.
it isn't working Mr. President. M1 Multiplier and M2 Velocity have fallen off the cliff. Employment sucks. Can we try something different???????????????????
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/06/09/the-feds-dilemma-to-qe-or-not-to-qe-that-is-the-question/
Money multiplies as a function of Trust. No Trust, No Multiplier. But don't tell that to the Masters of the Universe- they're riding the event horizon.
Statistics in government reports. There is no substitute. Except maybe Rasmussen surveying 1000 people with sequentially loaded questions tangential to the survey topic, and claiming 95% accurate corelation.
omfg
And pretty much any politician will shrug and respond
It is not possible to either raise taxes as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) or change the laws for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.
the expression 'exorbitant privilege' acquires all its ominous sense if the Euro crumble starts the financial rumble where O'bammy will be between a rock and a hard place; as printing your way out when the private derivative debt explodes sky high means the Anglo financial world has more to lose than puny club-med peripherals and core Charlemagne land. The nation states of Europe can go back to national money and reset after nationalising their banks, in pain that is tame compared to past mayhem. But the USA will lose its hegemony if its funny money burns after the Euro meltdown. As the world will go protectionist bigtime and US industry will no longer drive the world, having been massively outsourced to feed the funny money gravy train; as the capital markets will be dead until all the shit has all been cleaned out and confidence, clarity, accountability and market freedom truly established. Herculean times as US oligarchs do not die easy, nor relinquish their accumulated wealth even if their country goes Titanically belly up.
In the meantime the lean and mean countries of this world will have the road free of America's big stick. Reset will be a bitch as the world will lose a huge segment of its population, in the impending energy crunch for third world. We are talking contraction of 14th century times. How can the world go from 1 billion to 9 billion in a hundred and thirty years and not pay a price of unsustainability and retraction kind?
Clear as mud...
Mojave Solar - Abengoa Solar - Abengoa (Spain)
High Plains Ranch - Sunpower - Total S.A. (France)
Solar Partners - David Crane & NRG Energy - (US) (They don't want to pay.)
Oh yeah, Bechtel features prominently throughout.
The FFB has a truly international feel to it now doesn't it. Again... it's not what you know, it's who you blow!!!
this is far from "the President" vis a vis these numbers. This is Congress and the Senate actually. Interesting so much money going into auto makers and solar power. clearly the Federal Government is all in when it comes to battery powered vehicles...and at every level and throughout the entirety of the supply chain. I recommend you all go pay a visit to Mr. Peterson's articles at Seeking Alpha for a fascinating discussion on the subject. Needless to say the opinions are HOTLY contested. He doesn't go near my solution: "natural gas powered vehicles"...since that does involve actual cost savings, sounder engineering, better fuel economy, better for the environment, etc...etc...Invest in Catepillar if you like as they will be producing the first viable natural gas engine for commercial use in 2013. Having said that "proven technologies" don't scare corrupt politicians as much so Cummin's diesel has been a clear winner going on a decade! I have seen for the first time deisel/electric hybrids for commercial use on the highway...just this past week actually. you want to invest in the infrastructure providers for the build out of the electric engine space. To me that's Preformed Line Products which is already big and "big in the space" and therefore will have access to capital for the build out that is well underway not just here in the USA but globally. How this impacts the economy over all is anyone's guess but anytime you have capital expenditures on this scale underway the general effect is "depressive" on prices as "the money isn't going to consumption but to production" which have long term pay outs. With interest rates this low this could be quite the sustained industrial build out thus providing jobs, incomes, trade and "economic viability" in general. Enough to pay the bills? Only if your regions cost basis is low in my view. That's the Uppper mid-west in my view. but that is just my view of course.
Nat gas vehicles can't work, and don't bristle. I'll lay it out.
If you try CNG, the Civic explains why. They had to give up their trunk to expand the fuel tank and even after they did, they have only 40ish% of the range of a conventional Civic. Worse, the compression is at a higher level than pipes nationwide. Every convenience store will have to have a compressor AND a large tank at that elevated pressure. These are bombs.
The alternative would be LNG. LNG has an energy loss to cryocool it. You DO no question get up to 60% of the energy density of gasoline if you do this and don't have to have the fuel tank occupy all shipping payload, but loss to ambient warming is 1-1.5% per day. You can't pipe it. You have to truck it (just like gasoline) so you'll need a global (national) fleet of cryocooled tank trucks bringing LNG to your convenience store, which also has cryocooled tanks, which leak 1-1.5% per day from warming. The energy required to cool it out of the ground, and endure the loss per day, overwhelms any production advantage.
There is a reason gasoline became dominant, and it had nothing to do with conspiracy. It's amazing stuff, and it's going away. So are most humans.
CrashisOptimistic
And how to find the very many fueling stations.
http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html
CrashisOptimistic
"Nat gas vehicles can't work, and don't bristle"
Tell that to Ford and all the others listed below.
http://usnews.rankingsandreviews.com/cars-trucks/best-cars-blog/2011/10/...
Ford Super Duty Trucks to Offer Natural Gas Fuel Optionhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_vehicles
This is a list of natural gas vehicles.
Airplanes- Tu-155 only experimental
- Tu-206 a LNG version is available as the Tu-206
- Tu-330 a LNG version is available of this transport/survey/tanker aircraft
Helicopters- Mil Mi-8 only experimental
Passenger cars] CNG (CH)
-
- Cars marked with (CH) available at least in Switzerland (http://www.erdgasfahren.ch/230.html
Vans)
Suzuki Mehran VX CNG BI FUEL
Buses- Volvo
- Volvo B10L CNG
- Volvo B10BLE CNG
- Volvo B9L/B9LA CNG
- Volvo 7700 CNG
Trucks- Chevy Silverado CNG
- GMC Sierra CNG
- Volvo FL
- Ford F-150 Bi-Fuel- According to Ford not available for CNG only the SuperDuty
Waste collection vehicles- Mercedes-Benz Econic
Rocket carJust what we need - trucks and SUV's on natural gas making heating your home unaffordable.
Or to summarize for those who skipped PV=nRT (the gas law), liquids have ~1000x the density of gassses, thus 1000x the energy density. And it costs energy to change that-reduce the entropy via LNG or compression. So, indeed this is a guaranteed loser-like so-called high speed rail.
What is the ideal source from an energy density standpoint? Well look no further than E=mc^2. All those stupid loans to intermittant power sources like source should be used to provide government backed loans to develop pebble bed nuclear reactors.
This is what happens when a "community organizer" is in charge!
...and what was happening befroe a community organizer was in charge? Help me out. I forgot.
<<All those stupid loans to intermittant power sources like source should be used to provide government backed loans to develop pebble bed nuclear reactors.>
If something very expensive isn't done to fix the Fukushima problem, there won't be any necessity to provide any additional power sources. The energy consumers in the Northern Hemisphere will be less numerous.
I'm starting Green Diversity Rainbow Motors, so I can has free monies too!
as long as your business plan includes abortion, birth control & some incidental cancer screening, I'm expecting a green light.
And you start it by as a woman or minority owned business
A minority, as in, say 1/32 Cherokee?
And you start it by as a woman or minority owned business
...and don't forget the promise of a large campaign contribution/kickback, which is probably the critical element in these kinds of plans.
Don't forget the solar-collector moonroof!
WE BE GREEN!
Genius! Our first model will be dual-powered by said solar moonroof and methane from flatulent wookies and unicorns!
There is many ways to say we are screwed but the end results are the same we are screwed. elect the idiot/thief of your choice it will make no diffrence to the outcome.
Conservatives say Obama does not understand how the economy works. But, just in case the general public does not believe them, Obama seems hell bent to prove they are right.
Yes there will be a focus on this after the election no matter who wins. The fix won't do the right thing as in take the cap off, collect $1.00 more per check, or even use the real CPI as every one above has pointed out. No it will cuts to all programs and hand the money to the bankster because they're smarter than me;) Who ever becomes potus, if it the mett it will be done swiftly and if it's 0 it will be by a thousand cuts. Voting Green
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVXYzcb3r-w
It keeps coming back to jobs.
What is so hard to figure out about the fact that 30 years of sending, first, our manufacturing base, then outsourcing every job that can be outsourced to foreign lands, will eventually bankrupt America? This country has been, and continues to be, systematically looted by an alliance of pathetic politicians and special interest lobbyists with barrels of cash. Now, we have a Supreme Court stacked with political ideologues that have decided that corporations are people and money is speech. All 3 branches of government are now officially corrupt, as is the 4th Estate, the corporately controlled media.
We are well and truly screwed. Captured by greed and led by cretins with no allegiance to America beyond platitudes they roll out to stir up an ignorant base of fearful voters. Our Nation has been sold to a relatively small group of the highest bidders. The practice of divide and conquer has been employed effectively by moneyed interests who create froth around meaningless and distracting issues - the equivalent of Nero fiddling while Rome burns. Just remember, by definition, every "special" interest is against the general interest of all the rest.
how one chooses to spend money is their right. call it speech call it property rights call it whatever you want. It is there money and if you think you know how it should be spent then earn it. The problem is how people spend their money the problem in this world is how people obtain money and that is through wealth redistribution to both the lazy rich and the lazy poor.
Is it the lazy rich, or is it the lazy poor, with buckets of cash for their lobbyists to spread around so laws will be written in their favor and regulators are captured?? I'm confused.
So, you are in favor of legalized bribery?
Honestly, what I would prefer is pretty simple. Only voters should be allowed to make campaign contributions. No corporate money, no union money, no PAC money, no foreign money. Then, put a cap on what an individual can contribute, and all contributions go public on line within 5 working days.
End the money game - period. Then watch as we get a whole new class of politician. People with real acheivements and respect in their communities and states could afford to take leadership positions without having to sell their souls in advance to some amalgamation of "special" interests just to have a shot at competing. People could run for office without worrying about highly coordinated, expensive, slanderous attack ad campaigns being run against them.
You put "class" and "politician" in the same sentence. Oxymoron or what.
No, not an oxymoron at all. There are thousands of really good politicians laboring away in cities and towns around the country. Our mayor is one, and the preceding mayor was, too. Both live modestly, work hard, have good ideas, and year after year make this city proud of their efforts.
This kind of leadership we need, but is so lacking on the national stage....and it is all because of the corrupting nature of money gumming up the process and making so hard for honest citizens to compete.
This upcoming Presidential election will be the most expensive, AND the most negative ever - thanks to Citizens United. The Supreme Court has given the power mongers the hammer they needed to drive the nails into our coffin and bury the American experiment with democratically elected governance.
11b40
Well stated. It always amazes me to see the WWF wrastling that goes on during the contest to become Puppet Of the United States.
Surely the 5 families could set up a cage match between Obama and Romney, complete with a little blood letting and chair throwing.
11b40, you are the only one to come close in these comments.
It all comes back to jobs you say? Well yes...in a (deliberately) convoluted way.
California Government Hides Billions From Taxpayers « REALITY BLOG - http://bit.ly/MsEGwT
"The Biggest Game InTown" about the Government CAFR wealth shell game - YouTube - http://bit.ly/Mv8Knw
Watch that YT video...and think a bit. Federal, State, and Local governments in the US are literally...AND DIRECTLY...responsible for offshoring of jobs. Full stop.
Completely complicit.
By the fact that they take collected taxpayer cash (for over 70 years now) and INVEST it....
Since governments themselves are corporations, investing in other corporations, they DICTATE what is to be done (and cannot be held accountable to anyone).
As shareholders, they DEMAND maximum return on investment. After all it's the Capitalist way.
What's the quickest route to record profits? OFFSHORING.
It's not just special interests....they get sloppy seconds.
Government is FIRST in line.
PS - Who said they could take your collected tax money and invest it anyway? By who's authority?
Answer that and you will have an whole new worldview.
Watch the video.
Hence "electrical engine buildout." You can't export "the juice." hence the money. there is a question of VIABILITY of the technology however. According to John Petersen "battery powered motorcycles are viable." But he is far from a disinterested observer as a major investor in the space himself. Here's his bio:http://seekingalpha.com/author/john-petersen?source=search_general&s=joh...
Hmmm. Interesting. "American who lives in Switzerland." Wonder why that is? No wonder he can't stand plunging natural gas prices! Wonder what the "burn rate" on some of those projects still are? Anywho "without the government the funding would dry up" (obviously.) The Navy spend a fortune at the beginning of the 20th century on battery tech. So did the Germans. Both for their Submarine programs. Both were failures. But we all got the cool Engergizer Bunny as a result! Here...look:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=7HiO9rzU_aw
I thought he was pink? anywho...i don't think that cost any tax payer money.
to stir up an ignorant base of fearful voters is probably the subject line of the talking point memos passed around to surrogates of the Estates.
The shocks keep coming from those who've assumed control keeping the general interests back burner and politics (voting/democracy) is no longer (if it ever was) an effective check on the balance of power. The long primary season straps voters with the illusion that the system is within their power to adjust and NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH. Democracy is just a word when fear and ignorance dominate the electorate and those of us who know it are not united enough to implement a better governing system.
This is not about red and blue teams, rather purple and those who pull their strings.
Sheesh all that electric car and solar funding when coal is being undersold as a power generation fuel by natural gas and you can fuel a vehicle for 75 cents a gallon with natural gas. Then there is High Speed Rail! Passenger trains were losing market share in the 1940's when cars didn't have airconditioning and airplanes were little more than converted WW2 piston engined bombers! Does Obama really think these schemes are economic game changers?
I live in a smaller city. I have a 90 yr old family member who remembers the streetcar system very fondly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy
They also abandoned the first Electric Car which was mostly invented in the USA in 1996 - The GM EV-1
It is especially interesting what happened to the patents for all this research.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
After the leases ran out, they crushed them.
People absoultely loved them. They were fully electric and had a very long range battery pack and excellent performance.
Here is a last drive in one. Linked into the video to the driving part.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LE062OfrN4#t=1m40s
The very few that survived the crushers are still going strong today.
BTW: You could plug this in at home and charge it.
We're all in the back seat of an old beat up jalopy with no brakes, careening down a mountain side, with the driver desperately trying to yank the steering wheel off in order to give it to someone else.
Helluva view with a nice breeze blowing through our hair though huh?
HEY! Some of my favorite moments were in the back seat of a jalopy.
lol...you haven't lived until you do it in the backseat of a VW bug...good traction.
Trying that today would probably break "something"...good memories ;-)
79' Oldsmobile Regency Ninety Eight
Enough room for youthful debauchery to which I can attest.
Manuverability...lol...off to clothes shop.
Seeya
Obama is toast so far as it goes. Yesterday's performance was quite a political spectacle revealing yet again that anger and ignorance will be the prevailing sentiment at election time and we'll get another W. in the Whitehouse with the only difference being a few IQ points of the occupant.
+Citizens United. At least we get a better view of who is actually buying the place.
Yesterday was an example of the fact that Barack Obama is no Bill Clinton. When Clinton was president he was always one step ahead of the Republicans. With the exception of a short period when the Lewinsky scandal broke, Clinton always held and kept the political initiative. I think the reality of Obama is that he's not as smart as many people think he is, and his political instincts really aren't that good. He's told what to do by advisors and spinmeisters. But sometimes that dynamic breaks down, and then Obama looks lost. Bill Clinton, on the other hand, was in charge and never seemed lost.
No Bill Clinton indeed. Right around the time Obama became the Democratic Nominee, cracks in the patina appeared and his political incompetence started to show. The HOPE and CHANGE faded before the 08' election. Since then, its been one halfhearted show of leadership after another from the White House and the Legislature for that matter.
Despite Bubba's faults, I think the likes of his political skill will be absent for some time and it probably has to do with the level of corruption in politics. Its often lamented that decent people who could make a positive historic contribution avoid political leadership due to the pressures and unwarranted attacks their families and they themselves must endure during national campaigns. But, those who seek office on a national level must first obtain the approval of a power structure not subordinate to voters. So, we appreciated the sort of talent Clinton has in politics: one who can appeal to both TPTB and the voters. He is good for the political show.
Because it is just a show and right now, changing the channel is almost involuntary as the storyline and its cast of characters continues to stale. Despite the "importance" of this show, there's just no compelling reason to watch. Which is interesting in this time when you'd think US politics would do a better job at panem et circenses. Even the drama of the Republican's Tea Party has faded having jumped its own Palin shark.
Obama has lost the love of the voters and TPTB and the world will get the unfathomably ridiculous Romney as the next US President flanked by the deeply captured US Congress.
We will turn away from boredom or scandal provoked disgust. Low voter turnout (and electronic tabulation) will reliably offer some "tight election" suspense, but count on the TPTB to skulk off with more of our freedom and natural resources leaving the country plundered and most of its people in a terminal economic funk even if Obama has a second, captured, term.
long live fight club.
Good Rhetoric is no substitute for leadership.