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‘Bank’ is just a four-letter word- not a fix

RobertBrusca's picture




 

Jose Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, thinks Europe needs a unified banking system..

That idea may be the fastest way to a Euro break-up that I can imagine.

What lesson did we learn for the formation of the EMU? Or maybe I should ask what lesson did we fail to learn from the formation of the EMU?

The answer is that a system was erected with a clear systemic fault. That fault was having one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy. And while it was recognized it was ignored. Ignored problems do not go away.

The situation for the banking system is similar in that the euro-banking system has a huge flaw. And if the system is united and backstopped it will allow the Zone’s credit problems to run wild and to become magnified.

This problem stems from a mispricing of assets. Under the Basel rules government bonds are tier-one capital. Spanish banks will always buy Spanish debt. Greek banks will always buy Greek debt. German banks will buy German debt. But German banks will not buy Spanish and Greek debt if the securities look unstable. So what we have is banking system that is on a valuation standard that differs from the market standard or true value. Whenever this happens there is a potential for arbitrage and market participants will find a way to exploit the valuation differences and create havoc.

Spain already has. Spain decided to recapitalize Bankia with government debt, exchanging one set of questionable paper for another (Banking shares for Spanish government debt). Spain did not have cash to pump into Bankia but by having Bankia give it shares Bankia could acquire tier one capital, government debt, and ‘arbitrage’ the system allowing Spain to bypass the capital markets and to issue bonds directly and for Bankia to use the bonds at the ECB for real money. It’s as though you were playing Monoploy and could use the fake money in the real world.

The Achilles heel to the euro banking system is the Basle rule that make all things equal when they are not. All government debt is definitely not equal just look at your screen or a quote. Compare coupons.

But Europe now has a full blown banking sector problem and it wants so solve it. Banks have their own special problems, with bad loans of various sorts, but since the ECB launched LTRO the banking sector and country debt problems became thoroughly intermixed. The more that ECB LTRO funds were used to buy local government bonds the more the country debt rating issue became a banking sector issue. LTRO has allowed some withdrawal of credit from the government securities markets by banks domiciled outside the issuing nation. This has tended to concentrate the problem on the balance sheets of local country banks in debt-troubled countries. But since LTRO lies at the bottom of this lending what it has really done is to take local debt problems and concentrate them at the ECB through official channels more than though private banking channels.

An EMU banking system that does not close those loopholes will only make the troubles in the Zone worse.

For now the e-zone troubles have magnified because the perceived instability in large borrower nations is leading investors to remove funds from the troubled nations where funds might be expropriated and redenominated in local currency should a break up occur. So financing the banks with a hair-brained scheme that is not viable and that does not make the zone more viable will not solve the problem of capital flight and banking system strain. Even a ’proper’ backstopping of the banking system would leave deposits vulnerable to confiscation and redenomination in the event of a break up. So how does fixing the banking system really help?

The e-Zone continues to chase ambulances. It does not deal with the fundamental issue which is the loss of competiveness across countries. The quickest way to solve the competitiveness problem is to let countries devalue (i.e. leave the Zone). But since they are trying to stay in the Zone, this solution is not taken, but is feared as an option and it is the cause for capital flight. The root cause of the instability in the Zone is that the Zone itself does not have a credible plan to convince investors that the Zone can stay the course configured as it is. The stay-in and work-out solution is a long hard road that will take a generation of austerity from some nations. Germany is trying to foist that path on other countries but with no concept of the pain involved and seemingly by being oblivious to the needed time-line.

Some will dispute this saying East and West Germany united and it was painful, Germany has that experience. But that was done with a strong healthy West Germany backing East Germany all the way and with a set of common if somewhat eroded values. And it took a long time.

Trying to unite an uncompetitive Europe without such support seems an impossible task. Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret said the European Central Bank has done its job to buy time for governments to fix their weaknesses. This statement is so unrelated to the truth one can only wonder what propaganda it represents. Fitch has just said that Spain will not hit its fiscal targets in either of the next two years. Much of Europe is in a recession or a severe slump. It is not a conducive atmosphere to making these changes; certainly not in short-order. If Germany is not part of the solution this experiment will not work. AND the signs are that Germany is getting closer to having had its fill while the problems are not getting closer to being fixed. Germany should know from its very much more controlled experience with East Germany that this is a process than will take much more than a decade. How could the ECB’s job be done when it has only just begun –and has yet to be rationalized?

Of course this is not to say that the debt ridden and credit ratings challenged countries are not at fault too. But that is the issue. Germany, to fund them, must trust them. There must be real reform. In the case of East and West Germany the shared values were not an issue. For the rest of the Zone it is very much more of an issue. What will be the values that they will choose to share? More fiscal responsibility is number one. But it does not stop there. That is the main conversation that Europeans need to have: what are their shared values? What is their shared vision? Once they establish that, the other things can fall into line, like backstopping banking systems and fiscal fixes and the like.

Spain’s un-bail-out that has been unsuccessful in getting market sentiment patched up may prove to be a catalyst. If this much money has no effect it should be clear that Europe will not able to raise enough of it when the real dam bursts and that is close to happening. Either Germans have to change their mind or their time horizon or the euro-Zone will break apart.

The evidence clearly suggests that progress cannot go much faster largely because the reality of the economic cycle makes staying in one place a hard enough job as it is let along making progress. Europe is swimming against the current of economic conditions and its lack of focus to deal with – or have a plan to deal with- THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM in the zone (varied competitiveness) condemns it to deal with the black swan factory it has become. Every several months it’s a new problem, a new bank, a new banking system, a new issue that goes bad and for which the e-Zone creates a new partial fix. Why not a real fix? Why not for the real problem? Why not now? Or, end the madness and just break up.

 

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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:13 | 2520102 General Debility
General Debility's picture

Good song Bindar Dundat...

We have John Clarke, in NZ,  to make us laugh...or we will cry

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=I5QwKEwo4Bc

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:47 | 2520061 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

When I read stuff like...

"The answer is that a system was erected with a clear systemic fault. That fault was having one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy. And while it was recognized it was ignored. Ignored problems do not go away."

I instantly think California. 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 17:00 | 2519438 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"That fault was having one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy."

Er, yes there was actually.

All the Eurozone Govts had budget/fiscal rules they signed up to of not running budget deficits over 4%. 

Many cooked their books (Greece used the help of those most slippery shits on the planet, the NY bankers) others just pissed all over the rules, including Germany

what you're saying Mr Brusca is centralising fiscal rules makes them harder to break. That's total bollocks of course because centralising to the core (ivory tower) makes the plutcrats even more delusional, ever more insane (detached from society) and ram their heads even further up their rectums

...much like the delusional Barusso you're quoting wanting to centralise banking ...God help us, hasn't centralising Europe been the root of the problems of Europe???

Big Govt could not find its way out of a wet paper bag (see the US Super Committee)... Bigger trans-national Govt doesn't even know what day it is

the solution to the problem of course is Zero Govt.. end of fucking problems and all the f'n fucktards

"..Europe is swimming against the current of economic conditions.."

Europe is not dealing with the future, it is dealing with the problems of the past (a political speciality). Namely bankers past credit orgies and past politicians spendaholics 

in short it's sacrificing the future (future wealth creation) to solve past problems which cannot be solved by throwing money at it

"..THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM in the zone (varied competitiveness) "

the No.1 problem is bankrupt banks. The No.2 problem is bankrupt Govts

How the hell do you imagine politicians can address the competitiveness of their private sectors, except by nobbling private enterprise?

This is not a trade balance problem, not that Govt has any control over trade, this is a banking and Political shambles, leave the private sector out of this bloody mess

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:07 | 2520002 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

I know there was the Mass-Trick deficit deal but it was not followed so it did not really exist, did it?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:06 | 2519995 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

No. You are wrong. Bankrupt banks are an issue. But they can be fixed or closed. Fixing/ not fixing he competitiveness differences is the bigger threat to the existence of the Zone because it is so hard to fix without breaking the Zone up. Hard Painful takes many years. You fix bankrupt banks with money and closure. No problem.

Competitiveness differences without devaluations? Big problem.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 07:45 | 2520828 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

devaluation is another myth you're clinging onto by your academic fingernails

they do not make your industry competitive, the competition will simply hedge their currency exposure.

There was a study of Japanese car exports sometime ago which showed the fluctuations between the USD and Yen made no difference whatsoever to exports to America

you want a political 'cheat' ..a lazy dumb one button answer to (un)competitveness ..like every political policy the private sector will simply work their way around the turds politicians throw in the road

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:15 | 2520635 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Competitiveness takes care of itself, as Ricardo demonstrated in the 19th Century - if you allow money to flow freely.

The proposed devaluations of an euro-break-up are nothing else than resetting all national contracts, including all work wages, down by 30% or whatever. By fiat, instead of by organic transformation. Interestingly, nobody is interested in it - except for outsiders.

Please explain how is it possible that Ireland is exporting again - it did not leave the eurozone. Yes, it is painful, reality generally is.

The fabled Break-Up of the Euro is just an outsider banker request for more FX churn and simple solutions. Oh, and of course some existential angst of what might eventually happen with the USD and the GBP, of course.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:39 | 2520643 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

US citizens have demonstrated a lot of things on the paper. Just to discover a few years later, it was all wrong.

This said, they knew. They simply needed at the time scientific evidences to push up their agendas.

Once the agenda is pushed, point of no return reached, you can release that actually things are not as they were demonstrated to be.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:16 | 2519750 GCT
GCT's picture

Good post Zero.  I do not see how more government is going to solve anything.  More government, no matter the country is killing us.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:40 | 2519819 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Govt is the root of all our problems, it is the problem

there is no way through the corrupt political system of killing this cancerous institution, the only way is by cutting the sucker off at source..

Stop Paying Your Taxes 

Problems Solved

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:12 | 2520007 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Right. Do that and Your problems begin.

I lived in a conservative town in Michigan where the local pizza guy (Danny's Pizza) stopped paying taxes because he did not like how the government was spending 'his money.'

His protest worked. Soon the government was not spending his money badly. He had no money. They seized his business. They threw him in jail. No income, no taxes no problem.

QED

Questionably Ended Dilemma

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 07:37 | 2520815 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

there have been dozens if not hudreds of Tax Revolts throughout history, from China to Rome to England and indeed the Boston Tea Party

not everyone is as scared as you of pissing off Govt, indeed many of us see that fear of Govt as a spur to take the action against the parasites oppression and theft

all you want to do in good academic stylee is sit on your arse, pontificate about chucking another rule at the problem and pretend you've solved it

we've been chucking rules at problems for centuries. Get out of your ivory tower some day and smell the stink of complete and total failure, not one Law/Rule has ever worked

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:47 | 2520140 akak
akak's picture

I should have guessed you live in Michigan, the Capitol of Conformity and Conventionality if ever there was one.

Congratulations on so completely living up to the state motto: "If you seek a soul-sucking cesspool of spineless conformists, look around you".  And let me guess: you went to school at UofM, right?  The arrogance and unquestioning pro-status-quo attitude shows.

I escaped from that shallow, mindless, consumerist shithole two decades ago, which was also approximately two decades overdue.

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 10:29 | 2525501 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Does you shrink know that you are still so haunted by these demons?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:25 | 2520639 Lednbrass
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Pretty sure he is a New Yorker, but that mentality is dominant in both those states and everything in between.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 10:30 | 2525513 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

I live in NY now. Not in la la land like you

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 17:40 | 2519659 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55

 

Great post Zero.

 

Trying to reason with Brusca though is like trying to reason with a box of rocks. I can't read his shit anymore but love the comments.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 10:31 | 2525520 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Really? why don't you try reasoning sometime?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:32 | 2519806 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Brusca is a Rule-based moron, probably an academic, who liberally thinks all arguments carry equal weight for deep consideration instead of learning from experience (ie. reality) what works, what doesn't, why things fail and how to fix things

no Rule/Law/Legislation has ever worked (prevented anything) especially for those most slippery of shits, politicians, who weasal their way around everything

we have warehouses full to bursting of rules, laws, legislation and directives all failing miserably/totally but let's ignore reality and all experince and 'fix it' by throwing another rule at it

Politicians think every problem can be solved by throwing money at it. Academics by throwing a new rule at it. Hence the mess we're in, more Laws than any time in history, more debt and more problems than ever

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 17:03 | 2519533 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

D'accord and Mr Brusca's post is just another diversion from the black hole that the USD and treasury market will be disappearing into.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:00 | 2520626 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Now you have done it, Zero Govt. Now I have to agree with you and Jack Sheet (sexy avatar, btw).

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:12 | 2519320 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I have spent a bit of time reading some of the nonsense published by the European Union regarding its principles etc. Take a look for yourselves, it goes a long way towards explaining what has happened.

Obfuscation, conflict avoidance, stupid euphemisms, can kicking, procrastination and misdirection all rolled into one big ball. It's been there all along. But when you read it now you have to conclude. Yup, yup yup... 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:33 | 2519425 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Human behaviour. Of large groups and polities.
Unless you are comparing to... What?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:01 | 2519247 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

The Soviet Union did not help the countries it swallowed. The US government has had more corruption and disfunctionality since uniting the states. The EU is not a union of contented campers and has simply enabled corrupt technocrats to ruin the entire continent.

I would argue that the greater centralization of power the greater the disfunctionality and curruption. But those in power like it that way, eh?

Anyway, I am thinking that more central bank power is the absolute wrong way to go UNLESS the goal is disfuinctionality and corruption.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:54 | 2519213 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I rated your article "Poor".  Now I'll go ahead and read it.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:51 | 2519843 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

heh...another great comment!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:47 | 2519171 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"mankind's ability to delude himself is truly infinite." the idea is NOT to fix the problem. You're wasting precious ZH real estate by implying as such.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:45 | 2519161 marathonman
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Regarding the ECB, 'one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy.'  I thought that is what we had here in the good ol' US of A.  Any constraint on fiscal policy?  Nope - still pouring the monetary coal to the boiler.  RV's popped and pressures still building.  I just don't see how they can claim that putting an unneccessary and unaccountable Federal government over the European nations is going to solve a thing.  It truly boggles my mind.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:25 | 2519078 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

The last paragraph - stunning in its intellectual acuity, roentgenographic analytical depth and incisive reasoning.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2519025 fuu
Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:05 | 2519023 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

There is an implied assumption that it is only European banks or, more specifcally, PIIGS banks that are the villains of this piece. These banks are just the accounting entities that have been shuffling money printing from non-PIIGS banks for decades, whether these be US, German, British, French or Japanese banks (let's call them Wolves).

Back to topic; whats the difference between an asset backed security consisting of the debt of many voters (say 1 million mortgages or credit cards) and the debt of a Government (say the US)? I don't think there is much. Government debt = private debt with an assumed collective guarantee.

So perhaps rather than picking on the poor stupid folk of the PIIGS economies and saying "hey you guys are stupid" we should be saying "Poor buggers, they can't afford the way they are being ripped off by us Wolves and we, the Wolves, are now cannibalising our own stupidity for lending money to drunks in the first place". How much of this cannibalisation is a direct result of money printing to finance burgeoning fiscal deficits and bailing out banks by creating funny money in the Wolves play pens?

US Government debt is what 16 trillion? Freddie and Fannie debt is what 5 trillion? Let's not count the other pork barrels at the State and Muni level. US Government debt is growing at a rate of the odd trillion and a half a year? The 21 trillion works out at 70,000 bucks per man woman and child in the US and growing at 7% a year? Spains deficit is just 48,000 per capita and growing at a similar (fiscal deficit) rate.

even CNBC has some context and out of date data that you can reference:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/The_World_s_Biggest_Debtor_Nations?slide=6

By the way, the analogy to Tier 1 is off base. Tier 1 is subordinated debt akin to equity in the pecking order of satisfying claims in the event of bankruptcy.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:41 | 2519956 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

No there is not. No focus on Gipsi banks except they are more of a problem when they help to finance their country's debt. Spanish banks buying Spanish debt create an endless loop if LTRO finances it. German banks buying German debt is not a problem. Although German banks buying too much Spanish and Greek debt helped to get us here. But I am not talking abut 'before' or 'causes'.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:00 | 2519006 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Perhaps you misunderstand the real reason the Euro was formed.

The individual countries are like individual citizens. We cannot print our own currency and yet most of us spend within a budget. We cannot inflate our own debt. The problem is that these countries have succumbed to the political pressure to promise the moon when they can barely stay in the black with usual government expenses. These promises will be broken and the countries will suffer while they experience that adjustment. Meanwhile the Euro itself just behaves, persuing its solitary mandate to maintain price stability. It is waiting to fulfill its destiny.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:10 | 2519311 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

sounds a bit like: "don't nail me on a cross of Euro"?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:42 | 2518906 Muppet Pimp
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at this piont bombing europe may be the rest of the world's only way out else we have to put up with the incessant whining of the eurokleptocrats until the end of time

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:33 | 2519653 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Note to Mr. Bernanke, if you are reading this.

He is not talking about a "Money Bomb" here.

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:30 | 2518851 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

The repetition is tiring to us but clearly the message is not getting through to the European Brains Trust.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:53 | 2519206 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Might be better to view the German - EU leadership as screwing things up on purpose.

The 'stupid incompetence' theory is not so easy to believe. Angela Merkel is advised by people who may be totally monstrously deceptive and evil, but they do understand the credit markets enough to know these half-baked 'fixes' won't work.

So why make the euro-zone a mess? Possibilities:

- Weaker euro pumps up German exports and German company profits (ZH has noted this is happening)

- Grand distraction from other f*cked up areas of the world, like the United States ... This is a major theory of Jim Sinclair and others, the 'euro circus' is there to distract the sheeple, and even somewhat half-savvy sheeple, like readers of ZeroHedge

- Plan to push Europeans into a 'US of Europe' via 'necessary crisis solution', long admitted as a secret goal of EU founders from the beginning ... and EU staff now say that is the working assumption of what will happen

- A part of a plan to finally dismantle the comfort and security of Europeans, and turn them into fearful people submissive to being robbed and tyrannised, like has happened in the USA ... However this is a gamble which well may not work, as Europeans in the streets are getting ready to burn the place down rather than submit to 'austerity' and social benefit cuts in order to pay off banksters

Just sayin' ...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:17 | 2520636 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

The US itself isnt working out and is extremely regionally polarized, anyone who thinks a US of Europe would function has completely lost their minds.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:42 | 2520143 illyia
illyia's picture

BG in B - Where do you think Germany's motives lie in this entire situation? Honestly. Did the Germans realize from the outset the situation would evolve to this point? I am very interested from a historical view as well as a monetary view. Because there is a history as well as a financial system.

Thanks.

i.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 17:00 | 2519525 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Good points but please spare us the "weaker currecncies" fallacy.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 16:13 | 2518834 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

And again the gospel is repeated and repeated: "That fault was having one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy". blablabla, as if this would really be the problem or as if during the gold standard this was necessary at all. believe, folk, or it will be repeated for ever and ever... Euro and or Gold, just say no.

It's really annoying to be pushed to further integration so that we fit to a banker's model.

---------

Dear Mr. Brusca,

you missed here the perfect chance to show off your economic credentials by not repeating the current book and tell to this audience the story in a different way, one that would touch Libertarians.

That the EuroZone is behaving like the world of the 19th Century, in the age of the gold standard.

European were left stranded in August 1971 with the last remnant of the gold standard capped off by Oncle Richard, and after a few tries with currency grids (thanks, Soros) they, since the permission or even the guts of getting back to gold was lacking, started the Euro-Project.

Now the project is perfect. It works as designed. Inside the EuroZone, we have a currency behaving like gold did before.

Which is not what government really like best (as they prefer to print ad-hoc the necessary patches) I have to admit, and with this stupid behaviour that has hard capital, i.e. of fleeing places that makes it unwelcome, like leftist countries and governments that are not capitalistic enough. For example by balking at letting banks fail. And making governments think about capital controls, which of course causes intermittent hard capital stampedes toward Switzerland and the CHF.

Of course, this behaviour is not of gold alone, it's also typical of harder foreign currencies in other economic zones, as seen with the USD and many developing countries (and the gold-backed Pound before), yes. It's a symptom of hard money. Tons of paper has been printed to describe this bad, bad behaviour. Of never, ever, being enough. Of being scarce as resources, instead of plentiful as projects.

So it's always back to square one: either the governments of europe drive this hard currency in the capitalistic way, by behaving in a way that makes the hard money welcome (hint: eventually, this means bankruptcies, even of banks) or they will have to soften the currency, so that there is "enough for all" (!).

All the bailouts and schemes of idiotic EuroBonds or EuroTaxes or EuroTransfers or EuroBankingSystems are only patches. Either you have a hard (capitalistic) currency or a soft (socialistic) one. The european government have a long history of skiing between those two poles, yes, and there is a lag in the system, yes, but basically those are the two switches.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:49 | 2520617 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

ok, ok, it looks like I was too subtle or whatever. the article's name is "Bank is just a four letter word - not a fix". The content is based on the pro or cons of a banking union as proposed by Barroso and the failings of the Basle Accords (which many bankers hate) in regard to how it works inside the eurozone.

In my opinion this is just talking the book of the NY and City of London banks that feel that any constraints put to banks are wrong, and that bankers know best, always. As of course rating agencies, who know even better. But this is a different fight.

My argument is that you cannot "fix" any banking system (or any part of the economy) without drawing a line in the sand saying: yes, daddy government saves you from your folly until this line is reached. Beyond this line is bankruptcy. To put it in different terms, patches have limits, and Too Big To Fail is, at a certain point, Too Big To Be Saved.

Because State Capitalism has limits, as seen in the Ireland affair where bailing out AngloIrish costed freaking 60% of GDP.

I repeat, "hard" money shuns places where failing is not allowed. Hard money knows that it's a trap. The Spaniards would be well advised not to apply patches only but to seriously restructure their failing banks.

Meanwhile I note that by the mention the word "gold" in monetary matters people rush to the trenches of the current prez election. <sigh>

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 20:00 | 2519984 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Of course Gold bugs like gold but all gold pegs in the history of the world have failed.

So arguing for gold does not impress me. Fiat currencies fail? No problem. Gold fails too.

Countries have a hard time sticking to any financial arrangement. That is the lesson and as an investor YOU had better not forget it or THINK your country will finally protect the value of your assets. NO! that is YOUR JOB.

Europe is caught in a battle as to whether it will be a hard currency and make countries and banks slowly work out of their mess or fail(German solution) or break apart. Looks like they will break apart to me.

As for my chance to score points with libertarians- they should learn that no one WILL stick up for them. Their rights extend as far and they can until they conflict with what the the government and central bank want to do. Then they need to invest wisely. Don't bitch at government or expect the central bank to change. Ain't gonna happen. Eben a gold standard won't look out for your needs You are on your own.

You are already liberated but you just don't see it. It's a contradiction for libertarians to expect government to take care of them by introducing a gold standard!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 21:33 | 2520129 akak
akak's picture

Fuck the gold standard, which is, as you point out, merely a creature of government.

Give us a free market and liberty in money itself, and a separation of money and the State, and 99% of the current problems would automatically be solved.  Not, of course, that I would ever expect statists of all stripes to not fight such a proposal tooth and nail.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:30 | 2524279 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

a free market in money: well said Akak

Gold does not "fail" Mr Brusca, people do ..or to be more specific, politicians of every era, of every Party, of every nation. Gold is an inanimate object, it is the elite that debase it because they always spend more than revenue

a free market in money (ie. no State intervention) would still result in people and money failing (everything in the Universe has a life cycle) but because there were always competing currencies society would always be using and have alternative monies. Competition spreads systemic risk, limits the damage, life continues

monopolising money takes everyone in society down the toilet when it fails. Total System Failure

Regards Libetarians not expecting anything from Govt, you got it in one Mr B. It was realising i've never asked anything of a politician and never will that the penny dropped we didn't need them. 

Only those dependent on the State, or to put it accurately, that the State has seduced to become dependent on the State, would miss taxpayers money. And the legions of crones employed by the State directly and indirectly in crone businesses. They'd have to find a proper job which would be readily more plentiful if the State did not destroy so much capital

so how about freedom Mr B, are you up for it or still propping yourself up mentally you need Nanny/Govt ?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:17 | 2519615 JeffB
JeffB's picture

Exactly.

"a system was erected with a clear systemic fault. That fault was having one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy."

All the countries in the world used to operate under such a system at one time. 

Why not just have a gold standard and let every country manage their own fiscal policy. They'll either thrive or flounder based on their own decisions and actions. They'll quickly see which policies work, and which cause misery, hopefully quickly rediscovering the timeless truths of economics.

By the way, don't you think the individual states, cities and counties in the United States are working under a similar system of " one currency and one monetary policy but no coordination or constraint on fiscal policy."

That's what it seems like to me. The U.S. isn't telling Illinois or California how to run their pension programs, or their state tax schedules, but each state lives or dies with the Fed's monetary decisions.

P.S. If there's a "a clear systemic fault" in the EMU (or virtually any modern "1st world monetary system for that matter) I would say that it is a fractional reserve, fiat monetary system based upon debt as money.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 14:22 | 2518816 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

OMG! OMG! Cannot wait to read this.... later.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 19:53 | 2519971 Kina
Kina's picture

Don't tell Zhedgers are evolving into bold text readers only?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 15:24 | 2519092 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Right, f*** the smokescreen. Get this:

USTBonds: Black Hole Dynamics

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1339012800.php

USTBond Tower of Babel

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34819.html


 


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