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India: Top Dog In the Long-Run … Economic Crisis In the Short-Run
India is currently one of the world’s biggest economies, ahead of Spain. Both the CIA and World Bank have India as the 9th largest economy, and Spain as the 12th.
India is forecast to be the world’s third largest economy by 2030, and the world’s number 1 economy by 2050 (the same year that India will become the world’s most populous country).
And because India’s age demographic is so young, the costs of supporting its elderly is incredibly low:
Graphic Courtesy of CreditWritedowns.com. Data from http://data.un.org/
So things look bullish and rosy for India, right? Long-term, yes.
Crisis In the Short-Term
But in the short-term, India has big problems.
S&P has just threatened to downgrade India to junk. The Telegraph notes:
The rupee weakened and shares tumbled after Standard & Poor’s warned that a slowdown in economic growth and the political paralysis on economic development gripping the country carried the risk of re-rating.
Currently India’s BBB- rating is just one level above junk status and the lowest in the Bric ‘club’ which has Brazil, Russia and China as its other members.
Joydeep Mukherji, a New York-based S&P analyst, said: “Setbacks or reversals in India’s path toward a more liberal economy could hurt its long-term growth prospects and therefore its credit quality.”
Growth in the booming Indian economy has slowed with the loss of export business in depressed European markets while business leaders are deadlocked with the Government over economic development plans and policy changes. Corruption scandals have not helped India’s image while some foreign investors say they now get a cooler reception.
India has a record trade deficit, the biggest among the Bric nations, and an inflation rate of more than 7pc but prime minister Manmohan Singh has promised to stimulate the economy with port, road and power plant projects.
The Times of India reports:
International rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has warned that India risks a sovereign downgrade which would result in the country dropping off the list of countries with an investment-grade rating.
The statement comes less then two months after the agency revised the outlook on India’s rating to negative from stable and said that the country has a one-in-three chances of being downgraded in the next two years. India presently enjoys a BBB- which is the lowest investment grade rating.
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The trigger for the recent report appears to be the sharp drop in India’s quarterly GDP growth numbers and the drop in the value of the rupee.
“In our view, setbacks or reversals in India’s path toward a more liberal economy could hurt its long-term growth prospects and, thus, its credit quality. How India’s government reacts to potentially slower growth and greater vulnerability to economic shocks may determine, in large part, whether the country can maintain its investment-grade rating, or become the first “fallen angel” among the BRIC nations (which include Brazil, Russia, India, and China),” it said.
According to S&P, business confidence has been undermined by a perceived slowdown in government decision-making, failure to implement announced reforms, and growing bottlenecks in key sectors (including lack of reforms to archaic land acquisition laws that hinder investment). And, infrastructure problems, combined with growing shortfalls in the production of coal and other fuels, have dampened investment prospects.
“For example, various regulatory and other obstacles have delayed a proposed $12-billion investment in the steel sector by Korean steelmaker POSCO–potentially the biggest foreign investment project in Indian history–by more than seven years. Other steel projects have also faced extensive delays because of land acquisition hurdles and other issues,” S&P said.
The rating agency is concerned about recent setbacks in economic policy which have hurt investor sentiment.
“Strong opposition from within the Congress party-led ruling coalition, as well as from opposition parties, recently forced the government to reverse its decision to raise the cap on foreign direct investment (FDI) in multibrand retail to 49% of total ownership from 26%. Similarly, pressure from a coalition ally of the governing Congress party caused the government to roll back a 10% hike in passenger train fares and forced the Railway Minister to quit. (Passenger fares have been flat for many years despite substantial growth in personal income and high inflation.),” S&P said.
The rating agency has said that in a pessimistic scenario there is a risk that political problems could prevent the government from containing the growth in current spending, and lower-than-projected GDP growth could result in revenue shortfalls.
Politically inspired spending programs could further widen the fiscal deficit. “Lack of progress in alleviating bottlenecks in key sectors of the economy could lower both domestic and foreign investment levels. Fiscal slippage, combined with persistently high inflation, could further weaken investor confidence. Both the government’s debt burden and fiscal flexibility could continue to erode, in step with rising external vulnerability because of higher trade and current account deficits. India’s credit quality would suffer under such a scenario, and a downgrade could result,” the rating agency said.
The Times of India warned in December:
India may face its worst financial crisis in decades if it fails to stem a slide in the rupee, leaving the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with a difficult choice over how to make best use of its limited reserves to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.
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Unlike most of its Asian peers, India has recently been running large current account and fiscal deficits. That means it must attract sufficient foreign money — namely US dollars — to close the gap, and a weaker home currency makes that costlier.
This is a perennial problem for India. The current situation is so worrisome because India is grappling with big internal and external economic threats simultaneously. Growth is slowing. Inflation remains high. Political paralysis has stymied domestic reforms.
***
Beyond India’s borders, Europe is the biggest worry. As its banks deleverage, investment money has flooded out of India’s markets. If Europe’s debt troubles deteriorate, India could be hit with a balance of payments crisis as severe as the one that forced a sharp devaluation in 1991.
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If Europe’s crisis deepens, India’s trade deficit would widen even more rapidly, and it would have even more trouble attracting foreign capital.
“Risk appetite will obviously collapse and gradually the currency crisis is likely to take the shape of a balance of payments crisis,” Nitsure said.
***
“Suddenly everything seems to be coming to a head in India,” UBS wrote. “Growth is disappearing, the rupee is in disarray, and inflation is stuck at near-record levels. Investor sentiment has gone from cautious to outright scared.”
The Wall Street Journal wrote last week:
The venerable folks at FICCI [the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry] today held a press conference to try to galvanize the body politic – indeed, the nation – into ameliorating what they already termed an economic “crisis” for India.
***
R.V. Kanoria, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, had the following bullet points:
–In 2007-2008, government revenue from tax and elsewhere totaled 5.4 trillion rupees while total expenses were 7.1 trillion rupees, a shortfall of 1.7 trillion rupees. That was covered by 1.3 trillion rupees in government borrowings and other receipts. So the government overspent its income by one third and financed about one fifth of its expenditure through borrowing.
–Fast forward to 2011-2012. Revenue = 7.7. trillion. Expenses = 13.2 trillion. Shortfall = 5.2 trillion. The gap was funded largely by 4.4 trillion in borrowing. So the government borrows almost two thirds of what it earns and one third of what it spends. The fiscal deficit now amounts to about 68% of revenue.
–Today, a large piece of government spending is committed to fixed items such as interest payments (2.8 trillion rupees), defense spending (1.8 trillion), and subsidies (2.2 trillion.) So, Mr. Kanoria said, “there is very little room for the government to channelize spending to investment,” which is what is really needed to reverse the economic slump. That will be even tougher if the government proceeds with a food security bill this year (+1.5 trillion rupees in spending.)
***
What’ s the difference between 9% Gross Domestic Product growth and below-6% where we are now? About 30 million jobs that won’t be created, FICCI officials said. In a country that has 13 million young people come of working age annually, that shortfall matters. Goodbye demographic dividend, hello demographic disaster.
Business Insider has 8 charts here (and a new one here) to give a visual overview of India’s economic problems.
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Years ago I began to buy into the Indian Dream, thinking it might really be an up and comer. I did a lot of research and even made a number of lengthy visits to the place, hoping to be further encouraged by the potential I might see.
Sadly, I began to realize that India hits its peak with Jain philosophy, from which both Buddhism and Hinduism borrowed, and with the introduction of the "0". Ever since it has been flat to downhill.
India is a country looking for an excuse. Almost seventy years since the Brits pulled out, 1.2 billion people still rely on the Brit's former presence to explain why the country cannot make it. India is China (love of money and ostentation) without the industriousness. Manmohan Singh is probably the most honest politician the country has ever produced, but he is up against it. The world's fifth or sixth most populous "country" (Uttar Pradesh) is the World's Capital of political assassination, and its supposed paragon of equality (the Dalit former chief minister Mayawati) demonstrated that caste is no barrier to corruption.
The Asian Games debacle of 2010 was a clear example of the limits of Indian ascension to anything other than a land that benefits from the Law of Large Numbers.
Parth, you are a typical Indian. If you had our email addresses you would probably sent a PowerPoint presentation on how India did this and that. I have got those before. India's biggest problem to start with is the congress party. Its so corrupted yet they still got reelected.
BluePill is spot on in many items. The first thing for Indians is to admit that its true and how you can change ourselves. The rupee is going to collapse with India going into hyperinflation. As Timmy said never waste a crisis. India like in 1991 should use the collapse to reform the country.
Socialist policies have failed so start privatizing the economy and allow foreign ownership. India has a long way to go. The British are responsible for making India what it is. The ability to administer such a diverse country is a great British colonial legacy. However less government is no needed.
India has such a big rich poor divide because local tycoons are protected with government monopoly. Hence for things to change more companies should move in from other countries and local companies will develop on their own.
In India if you buy a piece of land, the ruling party of the area can use thugs to force you out of your land. If someone stays on your land, you need to pay him money or use thugs to evict them. Then the documentation for the land can be fake. The government may take the land for development. The best joke is government officials or land brokers will go to lands which will not be acquired and tell you to sell them your land cheap because the government will acquire them.
Too little resources and too many people like china leads to unbelievable levels of fraud and corruption.
India does remit money overseas. Yes they do. Check the Swiss banks.
People are under an understandable misapprehension as to the origins of Indias recent growth performance. It has its origins in the balance of payments crisis of 1991 when a program of liberalisation was forced on India by the IMF and reluctantly implemented by Manmohan Singh as finance minister. This explains the failure to advance this program under his current administration - no doubt much to the chagrin of Sonia.
We have to ask, why is nothing ever done to improve the condition of India by the ruling elites themselves? Are perhaps the Congress, the BJP and even the Communist party of India not just fronts for Casteist control of the country? If they are not, then, heavens, they may as well be!
Parth, you are a typical Indian. If you had our email addresses you would probably sent a PowerPoint presentation on how India did this and that. I have got those before. India's biggest problem to start with is the congress party. Its so corrupted yet they still got reelected.
BluePill is spot on in many items. The first thing for Indians is to admit that its true and how you can change ourselves. The rupee is going to collapse with India going into hyperinflation. As Timmy said never waste a crisis. India like in 1991 should use the collapse to reform the country.
Socialist policies have failed so start privatizing the economy and allow foreign ownership. India has a long way to go. The British are responsible for making India what it is. The ability to administer such a diverse country is a great British colonial legacy. However less government is no needed.
India has such a big rich poor divide because local tycoons are protected with government monopoly. Hence for things to change more companies should move in from other countries and local companies will develop on their own.
In India if you buy a piece of land, the ruling party of the area can use thugs to force you out of your land. If someone stays on your land, you need to pay him money or use thugs to evict them. Then the documentation for the land can be fake. The government may take the land for development. The best joke is government officials or land brokers will go to lands which will not be acquired and tell you to sell them your land cheap because the government will acquire them.
Too little resources and too many people like china leads to unbelievable levels of fraud and corruption.
Indiansdo remit money overseas. Yes they do. Check the Swiss banks.
LOL. India: a land where people are more fertile than the land.
It is also one of the most racist nations out there. Everybody hates everybody else based on their community, language, food habits, which part of the country they come from, their dressing style, etc., etc., etc. Each community considers itself superior than the rest and will discriminate based on that belief.
Heck, if you visit India and visit one of their historical monuments, you will see signs like these:
http://www.point-blue.com/bones/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/DSCN1725_b.jpg
http://traveloncloud9.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/taj-mahal-entry-fee.jpg
http://traveloncloud9.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/orchha-temples-entry-f...
Foreigners in this context is anybody who is White. So, if you are White you have to pay more. Imagine doing this in the US or any western countries: levying a higher charge if you are not White. And it is practiced openly in India.
Also, it is hard to believe that in this day and age, in many parts of the country female foeticide is being practiced.
http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/south-asia/technology-affluence-app...
http://entertainment.oneindia.in/television/news/2012/satyamev-jayate-wo...
Here is video outlining corruption in India. Please mute your speakers; the background music will drive you insane. Good content otherwise.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMSatkxO_r0
Give it a few decades, this country will Balkanize.
Ehnowmassee - did u know that in US u can get prfiled at the airport or in places if u look like an Arab i.e brown. Imagine doing what in western countries, the NYPD openly profiles Muslims and stalks them, try doing that in INdia. Corruption is endemic in plenty of countries in Asia. ANd fact is a recent poll found out that even Westerners prefer boys to girls as children of course.
Hey Parduh! or whatevah - dude/dudette, don't get your soiled panties in a knot. India still sucks. It is great to be a "millionaire" living in the US and parroting India's greatness. Your dad must be playing golf in India and has 15 servants to take care of everything else. Does he have one to wipe or wash his ass. Earn in dollahs and convert to roopees and live the life of a king, and claim everything is great there.
At least in the US, you don't have to pay a different rate if you are brown and visiting a park, amusement or otherwise. At least in the US, you don't defecate in the open to empty your bowels:
http://www.irinnews.org/Report/88504/SANITATION-More-than-one-billion-pe...
http://indologygoa.wordpress.com/2012/05/31/half-of-india-lives-without-...
At least in the US, you don't kill you female child just because she is a female. But, don't worry, you like most Indians will die within your cocoon of ignorance.
Rich silicon valley buggers opining about the life of millions of Indians. At least in the US, they will not say that if you earn ~60 cents you are above poverty line.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-04-29/india/31475601_1_...
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/oct2011/pove-o19.shtml
People like you are the problem with India. Everything to you is coming up roses. There is nothing wrong with India. Good luck with that, when the country Balkanizes.
Ehnowmaas or whatever- u mean Europeans and Americans and Chinese and Russians arn't racist? Please in Russia if u r brown and have a business the mafia will take it over or expect a cut, Chinese- less said the better, Europe? U mean Germany the paragon in recent history for racism is surely not an Indian state. And UK royalty , why rumors persist to this day the Diana was assassinated to prevent a muslim fathered child to be borne.
Corruption in India? ever hear of somebody called Geithner, is his first name Tim or Kim or Sreenivas?
A quiz for you:
Wall street is in
a) Russia
b) Israel
c) China
d) INdia
e) USA.
The background music is bad--have you heard lady GAGA?
Moron, No matter what you shout--Not many indians enter Gold clubs
Indians are like Apes, They ape everything that comes from West
India has got a great chance to Progress in 1990's but it started aping the west and Started to act like WHITE
Moron, you have no identity and your narendra modi will increase the class conflict which has already started
I am sure that modi clown may be elected but there are many Divisions in BJP even, Uma bharati, Nitish kumar and even Sushma swaraj all are gunning for same position
So moron, Like any indian, these BJP clowns will fight for political POWER
After 2G scam and all those Scams Congress has lost its Reach among indian masses
And Bjp and RSS came up with Psuedo Gandhi Anna Hazare who is racist Land Mafia king in maharastra who used to steal the land of Harijan's
Mumbai is not india, for that matter bangalore,Mumbai,chennai,hyderabad or delhi,kolkatta these are not india
Not even 5 percent of total Indian population lives in those metros
Farm land is acquised for SEZ( special economic zones)--Around 150000 to 200000 farmers lost their lives most committed suicide as they cant pay the loan's taken from Microfinance firms in India
Microfinance model in India is a failure, Go back to India and you will see the country as same , with pot holes every where
And by the way Mumbai maha nagar palika as recently declared that Water Distribution will be lowered to thane,Dombriwali,Pune,Alok nagar and Worli
Water leakage is rampant and ground water is rapidly depleting, Entire Drainage facility of Mumbai nagar palika has become joke
Its not congress or BJP, Moron its Every INDIAN
Why cant Indian Leaders speak out the truth that they have brainwashed the population into believing their Akand Bharat myth
India was never a Single entity , there has been Many princely kingdoms and tribes infighting among themselves for thousands of years in Sub continents history
During the whole Duration Most Indians Never Stopped Breeding,Its the only thing that Hindus and Muslims have Perfected since 1000 Years
Now you can squeak as much as you can about how great India is
But recently Phillipines has Over taken India in ITES sector, Now there are more call centers in Phillipines than India
We all Know about Hinglish accent that Indians Speak with Fake Christian names in call centers
ITES Is losing its shine, Days are Over for Back office Jobs--Sooner or later Malaysia ,Phillipines,Indonesia,Veitnam will become Low cost Destinations for Back office Jobs
And India will lose its shine--Look what is happening in Hyderabad , A place well known for Its IT-Hightech City and First IT park ever started in India Before Electronics City in Bangalore and Rajiv Ghandi Technology park in Pune
What is hyderabad Now, 10 years of Growth Fuelled EGO,Caste Politics,Seperatists from Telangana and Andhra
Now Every one wants to Feed on the wealth Created --
Thats how INDIA and Indians have operated for Past 1000 years or so
Hindus have no Wealth Creation ability neither Muslims do
Most of Great Business houses Run in INDIA today are Parsi( Iranian Immigrants) Houses
Mumbai's Richest Community is Parsi,Next comes Gujrathi( Gujju's are known for scams across the India,Same goes with Marwari )
Not many Indian Business houses have capability to streatch beyond their operational ZOne
Reason is simple, they have no ethical business models and If you Move Abroad your Fraud will be caught sooner of Later
--Dont be Fooled by Indian billionaires--Most Indian Billionaires like Mittal,Anil Agarwal,Ambani,Narayan murthi,Premji has progressed not on their intellect but they played Labor Arbitrate Game in ITES and when it comes to Anil agarwal and Goenka,Jindal,Mittal and Ambani
They all have Exploited Indian Natural resources like Coal,Bauxite,Manganese and in return destroyed lives of Millions of Aadivasi(Aboriginals)--This is what fuelled Naxalite Revolution which today has become Maoist revolution under the guise of CPI(M) party
More over Northeast India is Isolated and Most North East Indians Suffer Racial Discrimination in India
Most of North east Women are called Chinki( Which means Monkey Faced people)--A derogatory term which Indians use to abuse Chinese,Japanese and Any Asian Looking one
But when some one points finger at Indians, Immediately it becomes Racist
We have seen these stupid stunts played again and again by Indian morons for past 64 years and you covered up all yours sins and Hyped up your SHIT HOLE to paradise
Even Gets less number of Tourists than Crisis Striken Greece
This Goes to show--How filthy the country is after all hype and Chest thumping by Hindutva charlatans like you
Infosys,Satyam and many other IT outsoucing Sweat shops are caught in Mass Visa abuse Fraud cases,Sending Unqualified Workers,Discriminating American Workers
Indians dont hire WHITE american in their Firm as they Know that More and more WHITE americans will Openly Show to the world the corrupt and filth that exists in INDIAN run firms
Indian managers in Silicon valley are known for Nepotism and We all know NASSCOM PR Machine under the guise of Vivek WAdwa and other charlatans
Slowly but surely the Charade that India has created In Last Decade will come out Open
As economy Worsens these Indians will be Exposed for what they are...A Rising Tide lifts every one
From 2000(Begining of Y2K Crisis)-2009 India Enjoying a Great Media coverage and Positive PR--Now As Indian Pay master USA is bankRupt
USA will force INDIA to act in American Interests and it will generate Conflicts --Considering How fragile INDIAN EGO is , I am sure Americans will Understand that they have committed Great Strategic Blunder in this decade by Trusting INDIA in south Asia
Kissinger is right--" America behaves harsly with its enemies and Even More harshly with its Friends"--Pakistan got suckered Into the same Game
SAddam hussein Suckered into same Game during IRAN-IRAQ war.....Every American Friend was punished Without mercy
From IRAQ,to Pakistan,Afghanistan( which played into American Hands during Afghan Soviet War)--Every one who suckered into the American Geo Political Game finally got Punished
Same with INDIA--
India Refused to Open its Retail Sector,Aviation sector, and most importantly its Naval fleet
India even tried to play a Dual role with IRAN while USA has imposed Sanctions--Indians came out Open and said that
"Americans must Approach Indians before taking Any Decision"--Valayar Ravi (Indian Minister)
Indians became so arrogant and so boastful--And now You will understand who your real master is
Recently Leon penetta ,Visited INDIA--Ofcourse he stated that he will share Military Technology Know how with INDIA( Which means CIA will operate Inside INDIA, in form of NGO's)
But the real reason seems to be --Taking the WAR into Pakistan or If US chooses to leave Afghanistan, It will leave the mess to INDIA and pakistan to resolve
So prepare for next decade of slow growth ,Taliban attacks, Inflated EGO Getting Burst and Nationalistic Racist Mob getting elected as National Leaders
A Newly emergence HINDU nationalism along with persecution of minorities ...All this will not Augur well
On Social Front --INDIA will lose out, you may breed in millions but what is the use when you cant provide drinking water and Food
Monsoon rain in INDIA is delayed and Current Monsoon is lower than expected--Which means Lower Grain production,More pressure of Food prices
This is what happens when you Cut forests and Destroy Entire Mountain Ranges for Mining to Fuel the EGO of few Billionaires
You thirst for National Pride and EGO will destroy the False Charade of History which INDIA has created
We are living in Digital Age
"30 Years ago INDIA is isolated and Poverty and All social problems are Blamed on British and People Spent their time Bitching about Colonial Period"
Things have Changed and Indians have got great oppurtunity in 1990's and now it looks you have squandered
It takes atleast 3 Generations to created Wealth , Not even a single Generation Of Indians Worked hard
IPL,Bollywood,Common Wealth Games,Cricket --these are sham things you spent money on
Instead of providing Proper roads,Drinage and food--You provided Mobile Phones and Created Largest SCandal of this Decade 2G which Accounts 40 Billion$ to exchequer
There are many more scams which will be unearthed from Arms Lobby to Participatory Notes Scandal that P.Chidambaram is running
Coal Was Not Auctioned and Auctioning of Minerals started in 2010--So you followed License Raj policies in Mining Sector till 2010
Not just coal,Bauxite,Manganese,Thorium,Gypsum and Most importantly Steel All were shared with in clout (Political and Economic Elite--You so called Billionaires)
Finally i would like you Ask you one question
Are you Indians so Insecure that You are ready you Starve 70 Percent of your population to Create Few Billionaires( who Reside in Antillas or In EUROPE) in Forbes List
Instead of Working hard , you made so much of noise
You must be knowing Indian proverb--A Barking Dog Seldom Bites
Well you barked All the way from 2000-2009, and guess what , you even Got a OSCAR winning Film on your Name "SLUMDOG Millionaire"
I dont know what DAnny boyle Intend to mean when he used the title "SLUMDOG MIllionaire"
Does he wants to show to the world that So called Indian Billionaires and Millionaires are Like Jamal Malik who just got lucky in Recent Economic Boom from early 2000-2010 but in reality most of them are SLUMDOGS?
Great article, spot on analysis by George. This government will lose elections and a conservative government in INdia under Narendra Modi from Gujarat will clean it up (hopefully).
Bullish on lepers and peculiar looking women. Go long on wall street sponsored slavery.
Obama will eat that dog for lunch.
Geo Wash considers India to be TOP DOG!!!!!
Dog is now simply another item on the menu of the Geo Wash Messiah.
Nuclear, bloated bureaucracy and indemically corrupt are now the route to eventual success, according to Geo Wash. It writes but it does not THINK.
George Washington, you must be slipping!
How could you fail to mention that India currently has 20 nuclear reactors and has an ambitious plan to ramp up nuclear power generation by more than 12X by 2032. This would mean more than 220 new reactors (if they are the same size as current ones).
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/angela-saini/indias-thorium-fuelled-dreams...
Although India talks a lot about thorium reactors, none of their existing power reactors use it. Nor do any of the reactors they are currently constructing. The PFBR (prototype fast breeder reactor) currently under construction in Kalpakkam is a plutonium breeder, not a thorium breeder. And while India keeps suggesting that this reactor is a stepping-stone to a thorium reactor, the main advantages of the thorium cycle come from using it in slow breeders, not in fast breeders. Fast breeders are the most dangerous kind of reactor known.
So while India talks thorium, it is actually building uranium/plutonium reactors. And most of the reactors currently under construction are uranium/plutonium pressurized heavy water reactors, which is actually the reactor type most suitable for production of weapons grade plutonium. (The heavy water is expensive, but it absorbs fewer neutrons than light water, leaving more left over for production of plutonium).
India will disintegrate into small nations in 20 years from now, with impending water crisis and Geo-political quagmire which itself created with its neighbouring countries will Disintegrate india
Truth about Parasitic Nation India is rarely reported in Any Media, neither any one seriously considered the reality of all false stats that they put out to fool others
Indians are parasitic race to begin with, they neither have any potential nor any intelligence to become an economy of Size of USA
Around 12 states of INDIA which is roughly 40 percent of its land is in control of Maoists , seperarists from Northeastern states have been waging their struggle since 60 years
Jim rogers was right , India is nothing but an overhyped Shithole which is bound to explode
All false Patriotism and False chest thumping cant change the reality that India is not a country
Winston churchill was right--India is a geographical Location not a country, its like equator
Around 75 percent of Indian population lives less than 2$ a day without any basic amenities
Around 100000 Farmers have committed suicide in last decade alone,
India has largest child malnourishment levels , larger than subsaharan africa, Around 400 Million children are Dented and have very low IQ due less quantities of Nutrition in Food
While 70 percent of its population starves , India exports most of its food grain to Cattle In Europe
There is a saying in India that every Indian farmer wishes to be born as Cattle in Europe in his next life
Sectarian divisions,caste divisions, Corruption,Malnourishment,Inter-State Conflicts , Water conflicts with its neighbouring nations
Worse health care and public infrastructure All this will not be solved in next 100 years
Indian GDP figures are fake, most of it is electricity consumption and Food grain Ration Subsidies consumption
60 percent of its GDP is consumption driven and its currently running in High deficits (Both Trade and Fiscal)
India doesnt posses adequate resources to feed mass amount of population
Most of Foreign exchange in India comes from Remittances , India has not much export market
Since past 5 years India has been running deficits, India has no functional economy, there are no statistics of book keeping for Organized and Un organized sectors and work force it employs
Total workforce in india is estimated to be around 450 million out of which around 92 percent work for Unorganized sector( which basically means subsistance farming and Daily wage labor)
Only 8 percent of its work force is in organized sector which is around 38 million people
So in a population of over 1.2 billion more than half of them have no participation which accounts roughly around 720 million --most of them are beggars or living below poverty
rest 420 million work force works in un organized sector --only 35-40 million work in organized sector
Rapidly increasing indian middle class is another myth-Most of them are either Land mafia or Mom and pop Retailers who are living just above poverty line
Poverty line according to Indian government is 20 cents per day--around 38 percent lives on 20 cents per day income--( roughly 350 million)
According to world bank the poverty line is around 1.25$ a day counting inflation ( around 65 percent indians live in this income level
According to recent estimates 850 millions are living less than 1.75$ a day
And the rest of 200 million middle class the Western news papers hype about are just above poverty line, they will in fall below poverty category at any time
India imports 80 percent of its energy needs, Increasingly relying on Gulf markets
Recently after spate with IRAN , IRANIAN kicked indians out of the game and IRAN-Turkemistan-Pakistan pipe line will transit towards China
Indias growth story is a myth
If you look at statistics --India opened its markets in 1991 after IMF forced Indian government to reform.
But from 1991 to 2003 India growth Rate is around 5.3 percent
Suddely from 2003-2008 ,Indian Growth Rate picked up to 8.4 Percent Average
Most of Analysts have short memory span--You need to ask a simple question , if India is so productive and Ethical--Those 8 percent GDP growth figures would have happened in 1990's
Why it took 13 years for India to Enter into 8 Percent Zone
In 2002 India GDP growth in 5.7 Percent, but in 2003 its 8.1 percent, 2004 its 7.8 , 2005 its 9.2
The reason is simple--from 2003-2008 there is an artificial Boom in Indian Reality market, Most Indians emigrated During Y2K crisis Period to USA and have sent Vast number of Remittances both from US,UK and EU --
Indian laborers who work in Gulf have even contributed to record Remittances--these artificial Boom and employment ,remittances made Indians feel rich
Consumption has increased and So are REality market , Housing Boom in Metro Cities Created these Artificial Indian Growth Myth
Now After 2008 Explosion in financial market--India with IMF Economic Hitman Man mohan singh and Montek singh have pumped up stimulus package into its economy
INDIA Has Infused Vast amount of capital into its Economy , Indian stimulus is more than China,Brazil and Russia
But that artificial boom is now showing its true colors,Growth Stifled, most of its market is dependent on Foreign capital Injunction
Institutional investors are moving out after Corruption scandals rocket the market sentiment
Indian government Backstabbed Telenor,Unitech,Posco,Rio tinto
Most of the deals were unsettled, Indian government is reluctant to Open its market for Reality Operators from US like WAlMart
Now After 12 years of Financial Rape,Indian government is caught in a quagmire
Its Booster IT growth model is falling apart with Phillipines Replacing India as Next ITES service provider
Most INDIAN IT service companies caught in fraud Activities from falsifying their balance sheets to VISA Abuse cases
Infosys Was caught in Slave Trade In USA and there is a law suit in Alabama court against INfosys
Auto sector Went down the hill with Mahindra and Mahindra Was caught in falsying its dealership issues In US and UK
Fraud ,Corruption are 2 models which Indians have used to Grow
Now Some indians have accepted that They have created a Myth of Indian genius--Read Kiran karniks latest Op-Ed in NY times
Fake Stories and Fake PR campaigns,Corruption have promoted INDIAN growth Story
Now INDIA is caught in both Geopolitical Quagmire and Economic Quagmire
Its a Nation of most Corrupted people and INDIA which is largest weapons Importer is using WEapons against its own people to crush the separatists
There are 68 Seperatist movements in INDIA
Largest being Maoist Armed SEperatist movement
INDIA is a bed partner to USA , After INDIA stabbed Soviet Union ,INdia changed its bed sheets and started Fornicating with New Partner USA
Both these countries have enjoyed Good relations from 2000-2010
But lately US has understood that ,Just like INdians Milked Soviets and have used them ,ruined them--They are doing same with USA
their co-operation is afghanistan is limited and They have become extremely Arrogant after all False Stories about INDIA being Greatest Economy in world by 2050
REcently Obummer visited India and INdian News papers have Quoted that Obummer came to INDIA for Begging Jobs
Indians became arrogant , they have been self praising themselves,but they lack honesty and discipline
A minority of INDIANS made more money they could ever imagine but vast majority are reeling under poverty
--"20 years Ago not many Indians are aware that they were Poor,Now most Indians know that they are poor"
Indian middle class is extremely corrupt and arrogant, Their social structure is eroding fast and now they will start a Class conflict by using Poor as cannon Fodder
India will be torn apart with Caste conflicts,Water conflicts,and sectarian conflicts
With EU,UK,USA and Gulf in recession or Slowdown--Parasite Indians Have no where to Go and feed upon
Now all these Parasites will be at one place and Infighting for power will start
India has been same since 1000's of years, Heck entire South Asia has been like this since 1000's of years
It underwent One colonial rule after another--Now South Asians are Infighting with each other for Land and resources
They will have no progress, They are divided and Its impossible to create a living standards which replicate Europe in any manner
Even after 200 years Indians will be Breeding and Fighting among themselves
Dont misunderstand their Breeding capability with their productivity
They have been mass breeders since Mughal Empire
East Indian is the highest earning ethnic group in USA.
Thats another Myth Propagated by NASSCOM lobby
Kindly Read NYtimes OP-ED " The MYth of INDIAN Genius"
Or SEarch in google --"The Myth of INDIAN Genius "
More Over All these High Earners are getting Caught one after another
Rajat Gupta Is prime Example and these are more and more Indians who have committed VISA Fraud , Opened Fake Companies
Well Even Opened Fake Universities like Tri valley to Run their Bogus Visa Mills
India is all about Hype and Myth Creation
They Say in INDIA " Brahmin is a Greatest MYTH creator "
Goebbels Learnt This From INDIANS--" Repeat a Lie 100 Times " thats why In INDIAN education System Rote learning is Preferred
INDIAN talent is Rote learning with Negligible Out of box thinking
INDIANS cant progress In INDIAN society
Thats why they immigrate to other nations
INDIAN society and culture are so polluted that any sane human cannot lead his life unless he is morally degenerate person
INDIAN society is prime example of how Human society looks when it becomes so Filthy that Filth and Degeneracy is part of Life
Well , its culture
So INDIAN move out and atleast after moving out they do Well compared to those who are left behind in the cessapol
INDIAN can never progress in INDIA
He has to move out
The greatest Enemy to an INDIAN is another INDIAN
They are divided , far more divided than any nation in this world--To cover it up they come up with myth after myth
That may be the state you mentioned about Rich EAst INDIAN communities--Most of them are software Sweat shop workers who come on H1 B Visas and commit all soughts of Frauds in USA
You haven't seen anything Yet about INDIANS
You must ask malaysians about INDIAN immigrants in their nation or Ugandans about Indian immigrants and why IDI AMIN kicked out indians from Uganda
Where ever they have settled for long time , they have created Backlash and hatred for their community
its a cultural thing.--" like they say you can take INDIAN out of INDIA but you can't take Out INDIA out of INDIAN"
They are bought up in Corrupt society where cheating and backstabbing and RAcism is cultural norm
And about INDIAN being Richest minority group in USA
Well even if that False NASSCOM lie is true--It will not be longer when their real truth will out in public
I suppose in need to mention here about Padma Allen who is absconding by Cheating NYC state department 400 Million $ In contracts
INDIANS are same everywhere they have gone,They destroyed the social fabric by spreading corruption
I am not just pin pointing INDIA
My INDIAN Friends will conclude that i am a pakistani--Seems Indians instinctively know that pakistani knows more about filthy indians than any one
Well i am not pakistani neither Indian,
I am srilankan--Thanks to INDIAN state sponsored Terrorism and Their support for LTTE they have destroyed my nation
" Indian prime minister once remarked that Srilanka is Geo graphically Located at Feet of INDIA, and it must remain like that "
After math my Srilankan Brothers Killed that Dog--His name is Rajiv gandhi, he is bastard son of whore Indira gandhi who was even assasinated by Sikh brothers for Destroying their Ethnic Tribe
Most Sikh population migrated out of INDIA due to racism by Hindus , This even caters to northeast Indians
Most Northeast indians like people from meghalaya, manipur, sikkim,Arunachal pradesh,mizoram are partially Isolated from INDIA
You will find Chinese Bill boards in Mizoram,Meghalaya,Arunachal Pradesh
China is Claiming that 6 Northeast states belong to territorial province
ULFA of Assam are even Inclined to join China as they are racially Close to Chinese than Indians
If The current Growth model Falls Apart
India sooner or later will disintegrate on its own or it will become most corrupted , impoverished nation divided by caste,religion and sectarian conflicts for LAND and resource grab
While few rich indians will build Billion $ antillas and Buy mansions in EUROPE , rest of India looks upto them and Feels happy that atleast few Indians have got some Name in this world
This whole Thinking stems from Caste System which has forced Indians to accept that they are degenrate and they deserve to live and die in filth
Most Indians who are poor and living in poverty will not protest , they will pray God to Give them the life of Brahmin or Upper class Man in Next life
I chuckled.
So, how's the weather in Pakistan?
There is no way I would invest in any of these countries, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh in any situation ever, too dirty, too backward too disgusting- mmmmmm flys shitting on meat in the open market.
I cannot think of a higher risk country, other than a place like Venezuela, where you know your money is gone as soon as the check clears.
Even the African countries are lower risk- no law is better than some law, because then you cannot go all Talisman(TLM) on their asses with private soldiers if there is some law.
Bill,
The banking system is perfectly fine in those countries. Your money will be safe. Plus u need to know, the shrimp u eat here comes from Bangladesh.
This is absolutely spot on. Yes, it sounds racist and mean but it is absolutely dead on.
I have lived, worked, and invested in India for 6 years and cannot think of a more accurate description for this sham investment climate. You simply cannot bad mouth India in he media without being called a racist. No news sources have the balls to call this country what it is. The textbook case of the classical growth theory where people just eat and make more kids and never actually grow.
It's been overhyped for an incredibly long time. The party is over. George Washington is smoking something when he says India will be Top Dog. Never. Ever.
Chicken Tikka, if u worked and invested in INdia last 6 years and u r not rich implies u r stupid . My father does not work in India and he is a millionaire from investments in Indian companie. He golfs all day in Mumbai while I slave away working in Silicon Valley. You got be truly dumb to not hve made money in the Indian stock market, even my mother makes money. No offence, but reality dose is necessary sometimes.
Haha, does he golf at the Willingdon? I'm a member there too.
Yes, I've made a small fortune in India for myself and much more for my investors. I do believe it was based on hype and over optimism however and not on value.
So yes, I got lucky and like every other Indian who promotes the country I benefit when journalists write positive press about how great India is. So yes, keep the panegyrics coming.
You are right , Willingdon club next to the race course.
Bluepill, I Know u r a total idiot when I read that you expect Phillipines to replace India as the IT destination. I still can't stop laughing.
It's true. Call centers and it companies are outsourcing like mad to the Philippines. Keep laughing if it makes you feel good. But your wrong.
Chicken Tikka, I am in the outsourcing business. Let me assure u - Phillipines or any other country isn't even close to replacing India as the IT destination or call centers in the English speaking world. No offences to Filipinos, but their strength in the people business is in nursing and actually construction drafting and of course their beautiful mail order wives. I am still gagging after reading Bluepills rant so excuse me. India is just to damn koool.
You might be right about India's dominance, my point is that there is competition. India won't get unilateral outsourcing from the west. Other countries can and will compete and will reduce India's margins as a result. No not replace, but yes compete.
Everyone just assumes that India is e only country with cheap labor desperate to work for The West. There are tons and I Dian wages are now high enough that other countries can actually offer competitive prices.
However, It is a small portion of the India Growth story currently discounted in. BluePill just made a pretty convincing across the board take down.
Bluepill, I Know u r a total idiot when I read that you expect Phillipines to replace India as the IT destination. I still can't stop laughing.
Bluepill u really seemed to have swalloed one. Let me now give u the red pill about India.
1) Key Indian economy is agricultural and markets are Indians. Overseas remittances are a great source of foreign exchange but not the primary wealth of India.
2) Malnutrition in INdia is obviously present but without sounding cold, there are at least 500million well nourished young people. Plus the state does not pay welfare so.......
3) Wealth growth has been phenomenal in the educated and skilled labor- most Mercedes's are owned by farmers in INdia not overseas remittances.
4) INdia has access to most countries key military technology which keeps its defense sound and top-notch for the region. Imean when Russia and USA both sell you their frontline aircraft you get the award of diplomacy. Now China too is kozying upto India.
5) My family in INdia is generrally richer than my family in USA. The remittances are reversing where Indian companies are buying US companies.
6) 14 states with Maoist control? thats some small states the other states are under normal government.
India is a large country with huge issues and u can find all the dirt u want, but do remember one thing, in 1492 Columbus came to Americas while looking for INdia. And oh Indians hold the largest gold reserves in the world, 25000tons to 50000tons. When the monetary systems collapses, INdians will emerge as the richest people on planet earth. The golden rule is.....he who has gold makes the rules....hehe
Why don't you tell us how you really feel.
We forget that rating agencies are sub servient to Wall Street and Insurance Industry. Nothing has changed from the days of junk being graded at AAA ratings at the behest of Wall Street. This is just some arm twisting from those sections. The reasoning is so feeble that I am surprised anyone over here has taken it at face value. The leadership structure of the country has not changed in the past 8 years. And during those times the Indian economy has grown at 8 plus percent. So suddenly S&P wakes up as is worried about it ?
What is happening is Wall Street and Insurance are frustrated that they cannot have the freedom they desire because it is a very ripe market to exploit. But India or for that matter any other growing economy has seen how Wall Street and Insurance industry function to the detriment of the society so they are not giving in. Nothing has changed. India has paid high oil prices in the past and got by not more than a little strain to the economy. And these fuel prices are going down. But with each iteration the resolve towards focusing on alternative energy increases.
Glad I moved to the US while I still could.
I was planning to move to India where the jobs are.......
India is a joke. A dirty, disgusting place. Anyone who holds a river full of dead bodies as a "sacred place" will never be top dog of anything.
And whats ur sacred place element115? the whiskey bottle, a man crucified, a faceless desert warrior or perhaps u r godless? Whats a joke about Indi?, its real been, around longer than 99% of all countries and has been #1 in world GDP longer than all civilizations for larger part of history (China holds the title though). Fact is Columbus came lloking for India in 1492. I guess he did not read ur post. LOL.
But...but...India is a "Democracy."
How could this happen?
66 years after us Brits left India we are sill getting blamed. When will Indians in India take responsibility for problems of their own making ? Especially the fuel subsidy - got to be one of the dumbest idea going.
We have fuel TAX because it is a) Efficient at collecting tax b) Promotes fuel efficient consumption, which given oil is a limited resource is WISE and c) Helps to reduce balance of payments issues.
India is a nation in which all life is sacred, except human life.
Eric Weiner from The Geography of Bliss
zippy I only blamed them for their oppression pre-independence
after that its been the Gandhi clan and other Indian leaders through and through.
actually corruption in all forms exists that was not present even during the British Raj so no, chill the fuck out
CORRECTION:No Gandhi clan.Nehru clan.staling the name represents grand theft auto.By the way,NWO does have resposibility.Mountbatten(NWO lackey,whose wife, Edwina would get serviced by Nehru) managed to split INdia,with Nehru's help.
yeah I've always wondered if she had anything to do with all this
The "Nehru" clan did a great cover up of that though
India is paying a huge price for QE ? The run-up in Brent prices was a whack in its energy pricing policy. The demand for gold has been a double whammy as it adds to the deficit and weakens the rupee. What I dont get is how they can be any worse than Spain or Italy..
yea they were definietly hit by the side-effect of QE (fuck the fed)
Until the Gandhi family rules over us and doesnt stop the same divide and conquer tactics famous during the British Raj, we can't get out of this slump.
So yeah as this dude says, political, social and economic chaos in the short run as we hang the corrupt bastards ruining this country and then the Tiger awakens
The corruption seen lately is mind blowing and is not helping matters short term.
The tax base needs to be widened and tax collection system (highly antiquated) needs to be revised first before thie tiger awakens.
nope we only need a few taxes and no welfare, no quotas for minorities, muslims and backward classes
Its only holding us back. You think people will ever pay taxes in India, ever? its the king of tax evasion- Greece and others pale in comparison
Free the market and see the tiger roar atleast economically (social problems would still persist imo)
Its the politicians both regional and central and the enormous power they yield in every sphere of business that has to go away, for good.