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America’s Coming Depression
No, I don’t mean an economic depression. I mean an emotional depression. I fear that a funk could hit a significant portion of the population over the next five years. Tens of millions of lives will be affected. There will be substantial economic hardship. Fortunes will be lost. Media empires will be rattled. Some municipalities will face bankruptcy. Universities and colleges across the country will face new funding pressures. The changes that I see coming will reshape a cornerstone of the American way of life.
What could possibly cause this? The answer is that American football is in very, very serious trouble.
2,450 players have now filed 89 concussion related law suits against the NFL and Riddell Athletics (helmet manufacturer) . All of the State cases are being referred to Federal Court.
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I’m no expert on this topic. I follow (among others) ESPN and NFL Concussion Litigation. I have recently talked with four attorneys (none directly involved – all sue for a living). The cut to the chase question for the lawyers was:
Four out of four were quick to answer:
The dark side for American football depends on whether these four attorneys are right.
The suits against the NFL/Riddle are based on the fact that a significant number of players have received permanent brain injuries while playing for the NFL. There are dozens of reports that prove this. A Michigan University study of former players found that:
“Alzheimer’s disease or similar-memory related diseases occur ‘vastly’ more often than the national population – including a rate of 19 times the normal rate for men ages 30-49.”
NY Giant’s ex ace QB, Jeff Hostetler, has filed a suit against the NFL. A review of the court papers (Link – paragraphs 47-117) lists the medical conclusions that football is directly linked to permanent brain injury. It's going to be very hard for the NFL to beat this.
That football is dangerous and players might get traumatic brain injuries is old news. The basis of the suits is that the NFL teams, knowing full well the risks that the players were taking, willfully ignored the scientific evidence, and repeatedly put the players at neurological risk.
A critical issue for the teams/players is, "What did the teams do when a player incurred a head injury during play/practice?" As far back as 1999 it was shown that players who received a concussion during practice or a game were 4Xs more likely to receive another concussion in the following 10 days.
The NFL ignored this information. It was not until 2009 that it established rules that required players who exhibited any sign of concussion had to be removed from a game or practice, and be barred from returning the same day. But there are hundreds of documented cases since 2009 where players who received a head injury that produced symptoms of concussion who were returned to the playing field within minutes of the original injury.
The problem that the teams face is that it’s not possible to diagnose a minor concussion on the field. The league established a practice of identifying a player with a concussion as one who had to be carried off on a stretcher. The lawsuits allege that the teams/NFL knew the facts on concussions, and their documented actions put the players at risk. This is referred to as Willful Misconduct. If the juries agree with this (I think they have to), then the financial awards will go through the roof.
Can the NFL afford these suits? Some say they can, and point to the fact that the 32 teams have a value in excess of $40 billion, and revenues of $20+ Billion a year. I don’t think this argument stands up. There are 1,700 active pro players each year. The suits will go back at least ten-years. The evidence is that as many as 60% of all players have suffered multiple concussions during their careers. When a class action settlement is made, thousands of additional players will seek compensation. The individual awards will be in the millions. Based on this, the total damages could easily exceed $20 billion. That would put a very deep hurt on the NFL and the team owners.
An import question for the courts will be Riddell Sports’ liability. If there is liability on behalf of Riddell, it creates a major problem. Can Riddell (the official provider of helmets for the NFL) continue to make helmets knowing full well that every helmet that goes out the door is a lawsuit to be in the future? I would think not.
I’ll come back to the problems with the NFL, but first some thoughts on college, high school and pre-teen football. There has to be some very substantial changes for this group of athletes. The medical evidence is clear. The younger a person receives head injuries, the greater the chance of a lifetime consequences.
When the lawyers finish busting up the NFL, they will turn their sights onto colleges and high schools. In our litigious society more football suits are a sure thing. What will happen to the big football schools? All of these Universities have mega endowments. The schools are sitting ducks for lawsuits. Then there is the moral issue. How can a University field a team knowing that half of the players are taking life time risks?
I can imagine that Penn/Ohio State will be one of the last Universities to come to grip with this problem, but what about the Ivy’s? Can Yale, Cornell, Brown etc. stand up to the coming suits? I would think not. The legal risks are too high. Can the Trustees at Harvard (or the Army/Navy/Air Force) put their students at risk of turning their brains into Jell-O?
The only question I have is which University is going to drop football first.
High school football is at risk. The evidence is clear that the earlier in life a person receives multiple head injuries, the greater the probability of medical complications later in life. Will individual towns that sponsor high school teams get sued in the future? It would appear that this is inevitable. Knowing that they may get sued will force changes. But the most compelling argument is, again, the moral one. How can a municipality support a sport that it knows will cause traumatic injury to the players? Based on the information now available, we know that football for high school is like giving kids cigarettes. A percentage of the players will be affected in their lives.
A check of the Internet shows that across the country the issue of high school football is up for discussion.
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Now go back to the NFL. What’s the future?
- The existing suits (and those that are coming) will result in payouts to former players and substantial losses.
- The suits will force changes in the way that football is played. The suggestions on how to reduce the risk of head injuries include:
I) No kick offs or punt returns. (What?)
II) No blocking or tackling above the waist. (Impossible)
III) Strict rules on a player who does use his upper body when making plays. Players who break the new contact rules will face multiple game suspensions. Repeat offenders will not be allowed to play. (There would be few players left)
IV) Players will be forced to wear new uniforms that substantially increase padding. New helmets with both a soft and a hard surface will be the rule. Players will look like the Michelin Man on the field. The ability to run fast and maneuver will be diminished. (Think of this, it doesn't work)
V) Television will be banned from showing any hard hits. Announcers will be forced to not speak of any aggressive blocking and tackling. (The assumption is that the TV attention on those doing the hard hits contributes to the number of injuries.) (Boring....)
There will be more rules. A significant one is what will teams do when and if a player does have a head bump during practice or a game. The players will have to be monitored, assessed, evaluated or otherwise examined to insure that any transitory or permanent injury is properly recognized, diagnosed and treated before allowing return to play.
How can the NFL teams maintain this standard? If every player who had head contact was forced to sit out the rest of the game, then the teams would run out of players before the 4th quarter. (The scrubs take over at the end of a game? Where's the fun in that?)
What is the future of the NFL if/when these changes are implemented? I’m curious to hear from readers. I think it will kill the public interest in the game. From an audience perspective, the hard-hitting nature of the sport is part of the reason for the popularity. Without the speed and action (hard hits) on the field, pro football will lose fans.
I conclude that American football is going to have to go through some radical changes. High School teams will disappear; college and university ball is going to be suspended by some schools. Pro-football is going to be transformed into something that will not work.
Sorry if I have ruined some reader's Father's Day. Try to enjoy it anyway.
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It's time to pay the piper from the top down.
malaise, bitchez!
Thanks, Bruce, for the comic diversion. Wish my Dad were here today - he would have laughed at many of the comments.
50 years ago it was a Great American Game!
Now not so much.
Died on Steroids, for me at least.
you've got too many bansters in your....
As far as im concerned accept the risk in playing or don't play. You either choose risk for millions, or go flip burgers for the rest of your life.
Pretty typical of these players.
I have other complaints about the NFL. Loyalty? What's that? Everyone cheers for 'their' team.....it wasn't even the same group of guys a few years earlier and anyone of them would leave the team at the drop of a hat for more $.
My biggest complaint by far: The NFL has all those billions and all the stadiums are tax payer funded. It's a business. Buy your own stadium. That's no different than if Mcdonald's were taxing people for new restaurants. And drop the argument over 'it's public entertainment'. I don't know what's so entertaining about spending hundreds for tickets and $10.00 hot dogs. The NFL can go to hell, there's no way they should be able to bill us for their place of business esp when they are making this much money.
Well, I guess the US government will be bailing out pro football too.
this is a bunch of bull-shit.
football is a violent game -- that's the mutha fuckin appeal.
what are 89 concussions compared to 500 million global fans?
i'm so sick of magnifying and coddling weakness at the expense of the strong...janus is very close to breaking hard to 'the right' (philosophically, at least).
as i've tried to explain, janus is an agnostic when it comes to modes of thinking and collective cures. sometimes a more 'liberal' approach is called for, sometimes 'moderate' and sometimes we skew to 'the right'.
over and against every other consideration, janus adapts...it is the salient lesson reinforced throughout the eons -- it is a fixed aspect of Eternity; or should i say it is the only fixed aspect...that is, CHANGE. learn it or perish, bitchez.
on a long enough timeline...
i'll have oh-so much more to say on these and other things in the very, very near.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCYyile2s-A
to everything/
turn, turn, turn/
ther is a season/
and a time to every purpose under heaven/
a time of love/
a time of hate/
a time of war/
a time of peace/
a time you may embrace,
janus
George is getting upset!
if there were ever a summer of george, this is it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPS3qLtaFtw
this is my time/
time to taste life and let the juices run down my chin/
this is the summer of george!,
janus (thank ya, larry david & 2012)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydFJS-O2FwQ
i can hear the echo/
of a thousand ringin bells,
janus
Maybe the lawsuits affecting football will piss off enough Americans that we can get rid of all the stupid lawyers and lawsuits. Everyone who signed up to play football knew the risks and took them because they wanted to get paid. If anything high school players should have to sign a wavier, college players should be paid for the risks they take to make the schools big money, just like the pros.
I'm still expecting to be asked to sign a waiver every time I buy "food" from the supermarket.
I know damned well I'm taking a serious risk putting some of that shit into my mouth. But I never know for sure if this is the head of lettuce that's going to kill me. Or is it that slab of ground beef?
Since the store probably doesn't know where a lot of the crap they sell comes from either, who's going to be on the receiving end of my lawsuit when lunch kills my ass?
Should I only shop at large chain stores, knowing that they have much deeper pockets than 'Dad and Sons Produce'?
Thank god the lawyers my survivors can hire weren't playing football when they were in college.
The day football is banned, the second American Revolution will begin. It's about the only thing that will cause Joe 6-Pack to put his beer down and look up from the tube and take stock of what's going on in this country.
Precisely, Wormy !
Gross political overreach happens the day trial lawyers try to take football away from Americans.
At that point, the silent majority says "that's it" and rises up against the nanny state and bleeding-heart liberal mentality .
Americans are not and have never been Euro-sissies.
a bunch of pussies
Red Grange
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzNxOscu1zk
lived to be 87
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Grange
Edit: I've been watching a bunch of '70's movies and this appears to be a "hustle" that a certain segment of society excels at.
This is such complete, utter and total bullshit it's not even funny.
On the first day of "REAL" fight club, the team medic pulls everyone aside and explains to them the following:
- Everytime you fight, you WILL receice a concussion, by matter of degree (very minor, or possible major if you get ko'ed)
- There is evidence that overtime the damage from multiple even minor concussions may cause impariment.
- The only way to be sure there will be no damage is not to play
Then you sign a waiver or go home.
Your telling me these guys didn't know the risks! Bullshit, they knew the risks, they just see another big payday in front of them.
American football is a stupid, fucking boring game. They are essentially models of slave-owners and slaves on the field competing against one another. And for a what? A stupid ball goes from one end to the other. A team wins, another loses. All this money and time go into it, completely jacking up the costs of every item that advertises in the medium during the games, doubly soaking the observer who pay through the nose for the products they buy, and for the time they lose watching this stupid, fucking boring game.
Watching foot ball is lose-lose: nobody wins. We should just stop it.
In a free society, people can watch it or play the game. Just because U don't want to, that doesn't mean other people should not have the choice to make.
U sound like a communist. & a politically correct wuss.
Eh comrade?
The only thing more boring is soccer. And ASSCAR.
Golf? Bowling? Sport fishing?
American football is a stupid, fucking boring game. They are essentially models of slave-owners and slaves on the field competing against one another. And for a what? A stupid ball goes from one end to the other. A team wins, another loses. All this money and time go into it, completely jacking up the costs of every item that advertises in the medium during the games, doubly soaking the observer who pay through the nose for the products they buy, and for the time they lose watching this stupid, fucking boring game.
Watching foot ball is lose-lose: nobody wins. We should just stop it.
Here is a letter I sent to the NFL a while back:
Dear NFL:
I would like to comment upon the recent rule changes in regards to "player safety". I think the moves have been good thus far. The NFL has been around long enough to have good data on how the game affects long term health. It is obviously a physical sport that involves a risk of injury, but it does not need to be "violent". As a fan, I enjoy the strategy of the game as much as the "physical-ness", but I do not like to see injuries or hear stories of debilitated former players. More injuries (and potential future lawsuits) lower the quality of play. It behooves the league to have its stars on the playing field, not in the hospital or in the courtroom.
I have a background in physical sciences and would like to offer some simple suggestions for player safety. Having seen the league and players struggle with new “safety” rules, perhaps these will help.
No “missile” hits. No “missile” blocks. These types of hits are intended to hurt people and knock them out of the game. At one time they were celebrated/glorified in highlights reels. If you want to protect the league, you should ban these types of hits. What about implementation? How does one define a “missile” hit as opposed to a “tackle”? Simple. Arms must be extended. An attempt at “tackling” must be made. Leading with the shoulder OR head/helmet would be illegal. Leading with the head is already illegal, but the shoulder is just as bad. The physics behind this are simple. When engaging in a “missile” hit the player tenses up and their center of gravity is is focused toward the point of contact with the other player. This has the effect of putting nearly all of their weight into one point of contact on the opposing player. This focused delivery of force greatly increases the impact and chance of injury on the opposing player. When the arms are extended, the player delivering the hit cannot put their entire weight into one point of contact. The league could easily contract a physicist and sport science specialist to confirm the average decreased percentage of force of arm tackling vs, “missile tackling”, and show the outside world they are making moves to protect the players and thus protect the quality of the game. It would be easy for officials to call. A player might still make contact with the head or shoulder in the process of making a tackle, there is hardly a tackle that does not involve this type of contact, but as long as their arms are extended, they would not be penalized, and the tackle would be less forceful and less likely to produce injury. The same would go for blocking. The types of blocks I am referring to are the “Hines Ward-blind-side-type-blocks”, which could accurately be defined as “missile” blocks. Hines Ward could have blocked with his hands and forearms and gotten the same result, but he was out to hurt people. His types of hits are the type that will give people brain problems after they retire. Some of the people who enjoy the violence of the game, might not like this rule, but it would be easy to enforce and good hard tackles and blocks would still be part of the game. Players would just have to make sure their arms are extended/involved in the tackles/blocks.
Crumple zone helmets. From a physics perspective, today's helmets are actually worse for players brain health than the leather padded helmets of old. The combination of the hard outer surface and interior pumped to high pressure with air (or “stiff” padding) does not provide much “give”. The league should take a cue from car safety. Cars are designed to crumple in order to absorb more of the energy from an accident. Helmets should be designed to absorb more of the impact, and thus greatly reduce the probability of brain injury. Softer material should be used inside and out. Designing helmets that absorb more shock (and crumple) might also lead to “disposable” helmets – use for one game and then throw away – but this is a very easy trade-off when weighed against player safety and potential future lawsuits.
What inspired me to write this letter was a recent highlight reel of a high school game where a defensive player “laid out” a receiver with a vicious “missile hit”. The stricken player lay motionless on the field. Sadly, it was glorified. The NFL violence has made its way onto the high school playing field. These young players are doing even more damage to each others long term health because their bodies and brains are not fully developed. You know as well as I, some lawyer, probably a whole gaggle of lawyers, are sharpening their rationalizations to sue the NFL for injuries all the way down to the high school level. With the 2 moves outlined above the NFL can not only continue to prosper by putting a great product on the field, but also lead the way in player safety from professionals all the way down to the high school level.
You are exactly right about the helmet issue. What I forsee are throw away helmets. Helmets meant to crush and be disposed will be much, much safer than the current models.
Also it will help the economy by adding to and increasing the disposable-everything-world that the current economic system has to have to maintain any hope of survival.
This issue is just a way for the lawyers to stay busy while they wait to see who is making the big money after marijuana is legalized. Ka-ching!
I played a bit of ball back in the day.
One simple rule matters above all else...
The Ball must get to the end zone no. matter. what.
And yes if that means using my 110 bantam shitlight weight to work around two 300 pounders who have dedicated the rest of their useful life to stopping me.... so be it.
As far as taking hits or injuries, that is what Health Care is or was for.
My last play, a nose center made a stop on me about two steps prior to the goal line. I don't remember much besides a large impact and lights out.
That was normal PE Ball, no protection anywhere.
HungrySeagull
Way back when we all played tackle football. Bunch of kids out there taking hits and loving it.
At one point I recall being the only three white guys playing. One of the Black guys was a Kent state running back, his brother was a track star.
This was around 11th grade.
I'm talking public park no gear tackle football. Five,six guys to a side.
I miss being invulnerable and young.
I had lots of fun playing tackle football, but the memory of the last time I played wasn't so nice. My friend's leg wa wrapped up as I was running behind him waiting for a pitch. He started to pitch the ball and then pulled it back.
Good thing, too, because "Iky" was going full speed the opposite directio leveled me directly in my ribs (my arms were up waiting for "the pitch."
I'd tell you all about it, but I didn't see it coming.
It took me about 2 minutes to "find" my air, so I'm glad my friend didn't pitch the ball so I didn't have to spend more time looking for it, too...
Thanks for the memories, "Iky."
This story was on Business insider. Who needs football. I have my Columbo and McCloud DVD box sets. Im all good. Perfect viewing material for when TSHF
Yes, that was my article. Did you see how they hacked it up? Changed the title? Different intro? None of my pics?
They didn't even put my name on it. I'm pissed at Henry B.
Can't get no respect.
Bruce, the professional NFL is one thing (along with private universities and high schools), but I'm pretty sure the public universities and high schools are immune from suit, with a few exceptions that I don't see applicable here.
I played high school football and enjoyed the hell out of it. That said, my two boys will stick to baseball or golf.
Immune? It will depend on the facts. UNC did a definitive study in 1990. The connection of head injuries in college players to cognitive problems in their 40s is clear.
UNC's football team ignored it.
We shall see what happens to college ball. It will have to change. Some schools will drop out under pressure. I think legal jeopardy will be a consideration.
Maybe they get alzheimer's at higher rates because of the enormous amount of carbohydrates they consume throught their careers. Fructose in gatorade. Carb laden pasta meals with gluten, etc.
TBT or not TBT
Dude, you got your shit mixed up
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creutzfeldt%E2%80%93Jakob_disease
Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease ( /?kr??tsf?lt ?j??ko?b/ KROITS-felt YAH-kohb)[1] or CJD is a degenerative neurological disorder (brain disease) that is incurable and invariably fatal.[2] CJD is at times called a human form of mad cow disease even though classic CJD is not related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy,[3] however, given that bovine spongiform encephalopathy is believed to be the cause of variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans, the two are often confused.[4]
In CJD, the brain tissue develops holes and takes on a sponge-like texture. This is due to a type of infectious protein called a prion. Prions are misfolded proteins which replicate by converting their properly folded counterparts.
http://environment.about.com/od/health/a/red_meat_mad.htm
Mad Cow Disease: Long Before 1993
In his 2004 book, Brain Trust, biochemist Colm Kelleher argues that Mad Cow Disease (also known as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or BSE) has actually been in North American cattle since long before 1993 when the first case was publicly “discovered” in a beef cow in Canada’s Alberta province.
According to Kelleher’s research, undocumented cases date back at least a quarter century and may have tainted many a steak and hamburger already consumed. Further, Kelleher speculates that the infectious “prion” proteins that cause Mad Cow Disease and its brain-wasting human variant, Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (CJD), could be a factor in the substantial increase in cases of Alzheimer’s disease in recent years.
Common Symptoms Between Mad Cow Disease and Alzheimer’s
Some other research bears out Kelleher’s claims; though blaming all of the increase in Alzheimer’s on rampant prions might be pushing it. Dr. Michael Greger, Director of Public Health and Animal Agriculture at the Humane Society of the United States, cites several studies detailing that as much as 12 percent of all senile dementia or Alzheimer’s cases diagnosed in North America these days may actually be cases of CJD.
“It would seem CJD is seriously underdiagnosed at present,” says Greger. He goes on to describe how the symptoms and pathology of both Alzheimer’s and CJD overlap. Also, he points to epidemiological evidence suggesting that people eating red meat more than four times a week for prolonged periods have a three times higher chance of suffering dementia than long-time vegetarians.
“We don’t know exactly what’s happening to the rate of CJD in this country, in part because CJD is not an official illness,” says Greger, explaining that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) does not actively monitor incidences of the disease. He adds that several clusters of CJD outbreaks have been reported across the continent in recent years and stresses that more studies need to be done to determine just how many of the five million North Americans with Alzheimer’s-like symptoms might actually have CJD.
Suit up the lawyers and let them go one on one for the settlements with no helmuts,
all scum sucking pigs, the lawyers that is, the pro football players tough shit,
I work in the oil industry I know the risk, if they are so worried about injury do what everyone else does by insurance, or if you move into a tornado belt and try to get away without buying insurance or if you buy real estate 7 feet below sea level, buyer beware, get insurance. Kill all the lawyers, did I say tha already?
check this! Way better than WNBA.
Lingerie Football League - LFL - Game 12 Highlights - Chicago vs Tampa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AihbIEC2ysE
That's why they play the game to knock the hell out of eachother.
Anybody who plays knows this before they step on the field.
New idea. We can use the skin off the carcases of the banksters for footballs- padding for helmets- and since their are a ton of criminal bansters we can export the equipment overseas as a goodwill gesture. Fixed.
US Citizen Football
US Citizen needs lots of padding.
Real men donT need pads (search: images+rugby)
How can you tell it's the helmets and not the roids with no baseline?
Looks like the guy in the last photo was photo shopped,the guy looks like a whitey.
Could just be the lighting...
This has been a topic for some time: http://www.fieldgulls.com/2012/3/5/2848001/has-the-nfl-peaked
They have new helmet designs that go from 5+ pounds down to 2. They could get rid of the face mask and go visor style like other sports. Things could go many ways.
But change it will.
A better change would be to put upper limits on the size of participants.
High school: 5' 10", 90 pounds.
College: 6' , 100 pounds.
Pro: 6', 120 pounds.
Alternatively, play flag football and prohibit blocking.
If football, expecially at the college level, were done away with, expect howls from Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton about all the minority youth who were denied a chance to go to college. Moreover, college football provides, based on articles I;ve read, a big chunk of the money used to fund other lesser sports, and especially womens' sports teams. Expect howls from feminists.
GeezerGeek
"Alternatively, play flag football and prohibit blocking."
Are you Gay Nancy?
Around a true core, Bruce is trying to pull our legs again.
I cannot foresee what some juries will decide, but from a rational point of view I don't see what Riddell has to fear.
BTW is it true that boxing is still going on at some locations in the US?
From my point of view the NFL is becoming boring, because of micromanagement of rules by the NFL commission. Some of it may have been related to concussion prevention, but most of them look to me as trying to keep the suspense up within a season by favoring weak teams and disadvantaging stronger teams. Same shit as in Formula 1 racing. It has gotten ridiculous to the point where I don't understand the rules anymore, seasoned commentators don't and sometimes even the zebras look confused. The result of all is a strong feeling of fake in the outcomes.
So don't worry Bruce, I'm already past that emotional depression.
I am getting depressed by all the fucking Chemtrails being sprayed om me on a daily basis.
This is terrorism.
And it really bothers me most the population don't even know it is going on.
Fools.
Visit ChemtrailCentral.com.
Maybe cos it isn't going on, dickhead. Provide some evidence (beyond what Alex Jones says so he can get richer). Take some HD video. Show me air samples with chemical analysis before and after from your area. Oh....but that would defeat the purpose of wearing the tinfoil, wouldn't it?
Fucking tinfoil retards. There's real shit going on. Financial shit that you should focus on and educate people about. Tinfoil wank just makes you sound like an idiot and results in no-one ever taking you seriously on the real issues....or is that by design?
Fuck YOU snowflake you litlle faggot.
I I knew where you where I would come and bitch slap you ya little fucking peahead.
I won't discount some perfidity in "chemtrails--" but, I never see anyone with samples of the air tested after the planes fly over.
There are conspiracies, but not everything is a conspiracy.
Come back when you have some verifiable data.
Ssshhh....you're ruining my high.
I originally thought the idea of having them play without facemasks (or even helmets) would solve much of this, but upon thinking it through further, I have absolutely no doubt that players like Ray Lewis would play no differently and lead with their unprotected head.
Yrs - but he would have only lasted 1 or 2 years....