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America’s Coming Depression
No, I don’t mean an economic depression. I mean an emotional depression. I fear that a funk could hit a significant portion of the population over the next five years. Tens of millions of lives will be affected. There will be substantial economic hardship. Fortunes will be lost. Media empires will be rattled. Some municipalities will face bankruptcy. Universities and colleges across the country will face new funding pressures. The changes that I see coming will reshape a cornerstone of the American way of life.
What could possibly cause this? The answer is that American football is in very, very serious trouble.
2,450 players have now filed 89 concussion related law suits against the NFL and Riddell Athletics (helmet manufacturer) . All of the State cases are being referred to Federal Court.
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I’m no expert on this topic. I follow (among others) ESPN and NFL Concussion Litigation. I have recently talked with four attorneys (none directly involved – all sue for a living). The cut to the chase question for the lawyers was:
“Will there be financial awards?”
Four out of four were quick to answer:
“Yes.”
The dark side for American football depends on whether these four attorneys are right.
The suits against the NFL/Riddle are based on the fact that a significant number of players have received permanent brain injuries while playing for the NFL. There are dozens of reports that prove this. A Michigan University study of former players found that:
“Alzheimer’s disease or similar-memory related diseases occur ‘vastly’ more often than the national population – including a rate of 19 times the normal rate for men ages 30-49.”
NY Giant’s ex ace QB, Jeff Hostetler, has filed a suit against the NFL. A review of the court papers (Link – paragraphs 47-117) lists the medical conclusions that football is directly linked to permanent brain injury. It's going to be very hard for the NFL to beat this.
That football is dangerous and players might get traumatic brain injuries is old news. The basis of the suits is that the NFL teams, knowing full well the risks that the players were taking, willfully ignored the scientific evidence, and repeatedly put the players at neurological risk.
A critical issue for the teams/players is, "What did the teams do when a player incurred a head injury during play/practice?" As far back as 1999 it was shown that players who received a concussion during practice or a game were 4Xs more likely to receive another concussion in the following 10 days.
The NFL ignored this information. It was not until 2009 that it established rules that required players who exhibited any sign of concussion had to be removed from a game or practice, and be barred from returning the same day. But there are hundreds of documented cases since 2009 where players who received a head injury that produced symptoms of concussion who were returned to the playing field within minutes of the original injury.
The problem that the teams face is that it’s not possible to diagnose a minor concussion on the field. The league established a practice of identifying a player with a concussion as one who had to be carried off on a stretcher. The lawsuits allege that the teams/NFL knew the facts on concussions, and their documented actions put the players at risk. This is referred to as Willful Misconduct. If the juries agree with this (I think they have to), then the financial awards will go through the roof.
Can the NFL afford these suits? Some say they can, and point to the fact that the 32 teams have a value in excess of $40 billion, and revenues of $20+ Billion a year. I don’t think this argument stands up. There are 1,700 active pro players each year. The suits will go back at least ten-years. The evidence is that as many as 60% of all players have suffered multiple concussions during their careers. When a class action settlement is made, thousands of additional players will seek compensation. The individual awards will be in the millions. Based on this, the total damages could easily exceed $20 billion. That would put a very deep hurt on the NFL and the team owners.
An import question for the courts will be Riddell Sports’ liability. If there is liability on behalf of Riddell, it creates a major problem. Can Riddell (the official provider of helmets for the NFL) continue to make helmets knowing full well that every helmet that goes out the door is a lawsuit to be in the future? I would think not.
I’ll come back to the problems with the NFL, but first some thoughts on college, high school and pre-teen football. There has to be some very substantial changes for this group of athletes. The medical evidence is clear. The younger a person receives head injuries, the greater the chance of a lifetime consequences.
When the lawyers finish busting up the NFL, they will turn their sights onto colleges and high schools. In our litigious society more football suits are a sure thing. What will happen to the big football schools? All of these Universities have mega endowments. The schools are sitting ducks for lawsuits. Then there is the moral issue. How can a University field a team knowing that half of the players are taking life time risks?
I can imagine that Penn/Ohio State will be one of the last Universities to come to grip with this problem, but what about the Ivy’s? Can Yale, Cornell, Brown etc. stand up to the coming suits? I would think not. The legal risks are too high. Can the Trustees at Harvard (or the Army/Navy/Air Force) put their students at risk of turning their brains into Jell-O?
The only question I have is which University is going to drop football first.
High school football is at risk. The evidence is clear that the earlier in life a person receives multiple head injuries, the greater the probability of medical complications later in life. Will individual towns that sponsor high school teams get sued in the future? It would appear that this is inevitable. Knowing that they may get sued will force changes. But the most compelling argument is, again, the moral one. How can a municipality support a sport that it knows will cause traumatic injury to the players? Based on the information now available, we know that football for high school is like giving kids cigarettes. A percentage of the players will be affected in their lives.
A check of the Internet shows that across the country the issue of high school football is up for discussion.
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Now go back to the NFL. What’s the future?
- The existing suits (and those that are coming) will result in payouts to former players and substantial losses.
- The suits will force changes in the way that football is played. The suggestions on how to reduce the risk of head injuries include:
I) No kick offs or punt returns. (What?)
II) No blocking or tackling above the waist. (Impossible)
III) Strict rules on a player who does use his upper body when making plays. Players who break the new contact rules will face multiple game suspensions. Repeat offenders will not be allowed to play. (There would be few players left)
IV) Players will be forced to wear new uniforms that substantially increase padding. New helmets with both a soft and a hard surface will be the rule. Players will look like the Michelin Man on the field. The ability to run fast and maneuver will be diminished. (Think of this, it doesn't work)
V) Television will be banned from showing any hard hits. Announcers will be forced to not speak of any aggressive blocking and tackling. (The assumption is that the TV attention on those doing the hard hits contributes to the number of injuries.) (Boring....)
There will be more rules. A significant one is what will teams do when and if a player does have a head bump during practice or a game. The players will have to be monitored, assessed, evaluated or otherwise examined to insure that any transitory or permanent injury is properly recognized, diagnosed and treated before allowing return to play.
How can the NFL teams maintain this standard? If every player who had head contact was forced to sit out the rest of the game, then the teams would run out of players before the 4th quarter. (The scrubs take over at the end of a game? Where's the fun in that?)
What is the future of the NFL if/when these changes are implemented? I’m curious to hear from readers. I think it will kill the public interest in the game. From an audience perspective, the hard-hitting nature of the sport is part of the reason for the popularity. Without the speed and action (hard hits) on the field, pro football will lose fans.
I conclude that American football is going to have to go through some radical changes. High School teams will disappear; college and university ball is going to be suspended by some schools. Pro-football is going to be transformed into something that will not work.
Sorry if I have ruined some reader's Father's Day. Try to enjoy it anyway.
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Army/Navy/AirForce....These fine institutions have a long and storied history of turning their participants brain to jello and then discarding them like useless drek.
Too much money involved. A deal will be worked out. The Golden Goose will live. The fans will end up paying the settlement. Probably through pay per game- no more free tv.
The short answer is boxing survives and so will football. And it will survive in much the same form as you see now.
what I don't understand is why do Universities in Amerika has Football aheadof education and folks who don't care has to pay for the stupidty.
Jobe, I sure hope that English is your second language.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-sees-100-probability-global-rec...
Pretty good odds, if you ask me.
"I loves football. If it were not for football, I would not be playing football today"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BerJdS2VJhA
I remember having that whole sketch memorized back in the day! Truly hilarious! Today it would be PC incorrect to have a whitey doin' it, however.
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Why should the NFL pay anything? Heaven forbid we expect people to take responsibilities for themselves and make their own decisions.
And the classic modern solution. Ask the govt to ban it and protect us pathetic idiots from ourselves.
"No, I don’t mean an economic depression. I mean an emotional depression. I fear that a funk could hit a significant portion of the population over the next five years."
The economic depression will cause that depresion much sooner than five years from now. And, frankly, I don't give a shit about sports, something that like the games and circuses of Rome divert too much time and attention away from things that should matter.
http://www.thomasjamesmartin.com/breadcircus.htm
Screw football, bring on gladiator fight to the death matches.
Remember the TV show Celebrity Death Match? It was claymation, but entertaining. My favorite episode was Hilary vs. Monica. Bill was sitting in the audience eating nuts out of a paper bag. A female reporter comes up to interview him, he hands her the bag and says, into the microphone, "Hold my nuts, please..."
Just two weeks a go i heard a stat that REC football (little league) was down by a million kids, so i said to my wife who by the way is as rabid a football fan as anyone " Football is done let me introduce you to Soccer the other futball" Not the thing to say. Ok i live without sex for month. At least i didn't get a concussion
On a long enough time line Everything changes.
Remember Lawn Darts?
Jarts were awesome
Rehab Center opportunities on the way. There are about 5 AA meetings close by Each holds about 70 people and you better not get there late because you won't get a seat if you do. With Holder running the drugs and guns into the country and Soetoro selling the US to the Indonesians demand is only going to rise. As long as insurance will cover the costs an environment exists for a National Rehab Franchise. AA is like Linux and private rehab is like Microsoft so there is plenty of opportunity despite AA's presence.
Father's Day Rehab - FDR
Also military service for the yeomanry, milking naive patriotism and channelling off testosterone to The Squid/Whale investment frontier. Somewhat smarter given management jobs as corporate staff farm team.
Other dissipation of drugs, alcohol, jobs as cops( domestic army ) all keep the males occupied while the flabby, pasty Eloi symbol and mind raping class exploit one type of muppets against another type of Muppet.
Ok, Dallas can use its new stadium for dog and flower shows...
Watching them play the Giants there at the end of last season made me wonder when the stadium was going to be used for football.
Sorry for the dig, Dallas fans, but I've rooted for the Giants since the days of the twin Rosies, Brown and Grier.
Or FEMA camp!
I stubbed my toe this morning getting coffee. Hurt like hell.
Can I sue Folgers for wanton negligence?
Maybe I could sue myself?
Now you got me thinking... I am going to put an enormous amount of liability insurance on myself, then sue myself for something stupid I did (should be easy enough, I just have to wait ~5 minutes). Collect from the insurance company and live a fat and happy life. It's the new lotto for middle class white folks!
The comparisons to the financial markets seem obvious. Players are aware of the danger, but the monetary rewards are too tempting, and besides, the odds favor someone else getting hurt, not me. I'm just going to play for a little while. Sure, I'll take a few hits along the way, but I'll know when to get out, then I'll take my winnings and retire in luxury.
When it becomes impossible to ignore how many people are getting seriously whacked, government steps in with new regulations. The game is now safer, thanks to government, right?, so get back on the field, everybody. The media can continue making obscene profits covering every aspect of the game, including the obvious risks of injury that formerly went unmentioned, as well as the brilliance of the latest regulations to make the game safer.
In the final stages, where we are now, you end up with a game that is unrecognizable (no-contact football?, risk-free markets?), there aren't enough unhurt players left on the bench to keep playing, and the lawyers move in to pick over the carcass of a once-great game.
Next up: ice hockey, lacrosse, boxing, mixed martial arts and derivatives trading.
Why do you think we are paying so much attention to Europe every summer? No FOOTBALL! And I mean REAL football, not Footsie or whatever that gay sport featuring underwear models running around slide tackleing and tickleing each other.
If We get rid of football, then hopefully someone will open up a rugby league.
If Football goes - then we will need the world to burn down to keep us entertained. I know w/o football (college and Pro) I will need a new hobby. Maybe Zombie hunting?
Banker Hunting. Politician Hunting.
Porn.
Footbal sucks. The Colt's broke my heart when they left Baltimore in the middle of the night. I was crushed 10 year old. Then they started changing the rules every year. Then TV timeouts, then the video reviews. Thank gawd for baseball and while it has become a joke of it's own, at least the damn sport isn't timed around TV commercials and propaganda (dumbed down) news for the sheeple like football.
Agree - sad time when the Colts left and teams and players started having no loyalty to their towns or fans and became less sport and more spectacle.
They rode off on The Mayflower (moving trucks). What could be more American?
We're not thinking here folks!!! The answer is a HANS device for football helmets. Transfer the impact down into the shoulder pads and turn a more firmly encased helmet protection into a REAL HUMAN-SPEAR. That's what I'm talkin' about. More jobs, more violent massacre's in three- part harmony, more viewers, more revenues, and we've transferred the damage to shoulders and internal organ bruises, but we can protect that with more body armour. AND THIS CREATES MORE JOBS.!!! Get Mitt and Barry on the line. Damnit!!! This is the best thing to happen in America in DECADES....at least since NIXON SHOCK!!! (August, 15, 1971).
My solution...
Field a team of lawyers - helmet less - and let the Giants hammer them for 3 quarters mercilessly.
Then, the last quarter, have the fans call in plays, designed to make the lawyer QB be exposed to never ending blitzes wthout any padding, or protection of any kind.
THAT - I'd watch.
What do these doofuses think? Putting these mammoth men that can outrun a chicken, roided up, and padded a la Kevlar, replete with a battering ram for a headpiece against the equally padded and geared up opposition on field designed to maximize speed - and think they won't get fucked up in the head?
Most of these men are fucked up mentally in the first place, from being beaten and bashed since Pee-Wee.
Sign a fucking waiver. They choose to play this game.
The TrickleDown Effect
College Tuition will triple from the downside effects of this, should the Player Plaintiff attorneys prevail. Obviously, no college worthy of it's endowment ( especially Harvard after recovering from the Sumner debacle) is going to expose it's ass-ets to the young unemployed lawyers that graduated from their law schools with big promises and even bigger debts.
That means College Football will be discontinued. Records will be torn and shredded and witnesses, including season ticket holders will be "disappeared". College Tuition triples and the TBTFs will have exclusive providence over all college debt where the tangible appearance will look startling similar to their MasterCard and Visas including the interest rates, only they will be first-secured-lein on everything over all the parent's assets.
A new law that makes school debt a first priority in bankruptcy even over mortgages which they already have been been paid on once or twice anyway and will have credit default swaps on the soon to be sevened mortgage from 17 different fully owned subsidiaries of all TBTFs with a centarl data depository called Merfs.
As a defense against parent iniated injury suits a law will be passed : stating If a student is late two months, banks will have the lawful right to push the parents into a involuntary Chapter 7 liquidation of which they are the prime beneficiaries. This of course will be true for parents who have the assets to pay the debt but aren't "liquid enough" since the banks will be rightly concerned that the value of the assets may nose dive if say millions of liquidations were pursued at once which is why:
The excess lawyer supply in the country will be completely sucked up and demand will increase exponentially, yet naturally schools will be highly reluctant to train one more predatory sociopath leech that would have the unmitigated audacity to file suit against it's old alma mater(s) but will be tempted to issue narrower degrees for lawyers who can only go after parents of student loan graduates. So a new law will pass. A new branch of Blackwater will be opened up and new laws passed allowing Blackwater operators to mercilessly beat and torture entire extended families until loans are paid exclusively to the TBTFs. This will NWO law This will be copied world wide.
The Govt of course will be sued by traditional third party collectors who will scream in justified outrage "Where's our Bailout?" . They will all be killed.
Meanwhile HighSchool teachers, punch drunk from being beaten up slashed and burned from the war on teachers will recoil in horror as the economic teachers detail out the ramifications of all high school athletics being discontinued. Whatever surplus that saved some of the bennies will be gone. Schools will be required to teach and nothing else or all the staff, students and their parents will suffer the same fate as those deadbeat college parents. TBTFs will have exclusivity over all debt matters here including issuing special cards so Lawyers can be paid up front (less the 7.7225% non-recourse fee) and clients will be charged 42% compounded hourly. Parnets who are already being thrown out of homes will be forced to allow the school to use their children in any manner they see fit as part of the pay-back program. We all knew there would be a way around those pesky Child Labor laws and minimum wages. The Mortimer Bill will pass.
Under the best defense being a good offense theory of anti-predatory conduct: Hospital Stocks will climb as anyone who has ever had a child in any contact sport including, dodge ball, will Lawyer up and the tests and treatment will roll to show "damages". New lobbying associations will form on all sides as a bevy of new lobbyists ( or multi tasking ones) will descend on Washington briefcases bulging with Gold.
A new Bill will pass for Lawyers called "Injury Tax relief" almost immediately which basically will say no one who receives money will owe taxes.
The GDP Algos will go wild but it will show that GDP will have increased 7.7% . Interest rates will go negative by a huge amount so anyone buying a treasuries (Disgused as Bring Football Back Bonds) will will pay the govt 73% of par up front as negative interest rates are compounded hourly and paid up front. That will beffor the huge amount of money required for Govt drones to hunt down and kill anyone who threatens any status quo. The Killer Combat Drones will be manufactiured by the millions big ( For group Debtors) and small (little kids) and all incredibly accurate and lethal.
The stock market will still be range bound as 4 shares a day trade. Intrade will be the one bright spot for traders as they'll be able to go completely granular and bet on individual court cases.
Such an obvious FUBAR will be hard to take advantage of politically so candidates will be advised to do what they always do; talk about Vaginas.
The People's attention is held by gladatorial sports, the Senate is corrupt, and the money-changers rule the streets.
What could be possibly be wrong in Rome?
+1 for the historical referance. But I still love me some FOOTBALL.
Never liked football anyways, ADIOS! What a relief, to go over to the in-laws house and not have to watch a stupid game of football on the idiot box! Can we do away with baseball, basketball, soccer and golf while we're at it?
The average football players lifespan in being able to compete with the newest crop is about five years. The reason they make all that money is for the abuse they take. Plus the players union has medical.
If you want to run with the big dogs you got to pay the price.
The less circuses, the better. I think.
oh, there will be circuses... and more!! blood sports!!! dont believe it? why such hype over "hunger games"... remember "the running man"??? it all comes from this document, if you have not read it, i would HIGHLY recommend it.
http://www.teachpeace.com/Report_from_Iron_Mountain.pdf
When you go parachuting you have to sign a release statement, (and often videotape them). I imagine the NFL requires release statements? If the NFL hasn't had to pay-up much for generations of crippled retirees why are concussions going to be any different? MONEY will likely rule the day and the NFL will continue to be the great American blood sport, IMO.
Make way for ROLLERBALL
not quite, the nfl will award some sort of class action sum, and more likely do more for its veterans. ANd going forward they will just require all players to sign a waiver as to understand the risk of playing and not holding the league responsible.
The NFL is NOT going anywhere.
The rules will change. What is coming is not good for the viewers.
That new waiver will say:
The player gives up his right to sue, in exchange, The NFL agrees to cover him (and his family) for life.
No sale...
Bruce, exit polls at my local WalMart show fewer then 23.67% feel depressed and two of them are waiting for their lawsuit settlement from slipping on that proverbial banana peel slip-and-fall in produce.
Overall, they look Fat and Happy.
PS: I will admit that sample size may introduce errors in the results.
no the waiver will say what ever freaking waiver we sign says. The league is not repsonisble for.... blah blah blah.
Christ there is a waiver of responisble of injury from the damn football on the back of your ticket. By using your ticket you waive your right to sue for a busted nose if the football flies into the stands.
You think NFL players are worried about injury more than money, fame and the game they love?
Wonder if the whole waiver and health coverage provided by the NFL could be written to allow the obligation to be dumped onto the taxpayers like so many other corporations strategically use the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC?) Nah, our legislators would never allow something like that to happen. /. (That's the sarc tag, just in case you've taken a few too many hits to the head.)
The NFL, and football in general, is TBTF. Shoot, it's one half of the concept of "bread and circuses." There's a lot of money in it, and to seriously threaten it is going to piss off a lot of folks with a lot of money, and I'm not talking about the fans. Can you imagine the PR effort that would result? There will be pro-football ads trotting out little blond-haired and blue-eyed "Timmy" talking about his love for the game. It won't just be Boehner "spontaneously" bursting into tears; it will be widespread at all levels of government, both Democrat and Republican. What, you want to kill football? Are you some kind of terrorist?
But how would this stop at the NFL? Isn’t the liability even greater for sports where players are not already required to wear helmets?
Athletes in all sports sustain concussions along with many other known lifelong medical complications as a result of playing. If you are right, Messi will have to look like the Michelin Man as well.
Thanks for your contributions Bruce. I really enjoy reading your articles.
agree....soccer is the #1 sport for concussions. So let's just all play Angry Birds on our I-Pads. The Nanny State will be pleased.
LOL! This place is filled with a lot of serfs who love watching the circuses. Your TV viewership supports your serfdom. Keep watching and supporting The Matrix dumbass.