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America’s Coming Depression
No, I don’t mean an economic depression. I mean an emotional depression. I fear that a funk could hit a significant portion of the population over the next five years. Tens of millions of lives will be affected. There will be substantial economic hardship. Fortunes will be lost. Media empires will be rattled. Some municipalities will face bankruptcy. Universities and colleges across the country will face new funding pressures. The changes that I see coming will reshape a cornerstone of the American way of life.
What could possibly cause this? The answer is that American football is in very, very serious trouble.
2,450 players have now filed 89 concussion related law suits against the NFL and Riddell Athletics (helmet manufacturer) . All of the State cases are being referred to Federal Court.
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I’m no expert on this topic. I follow (among others) ESPN and NFL Concussion Litigation. I have recently talked with four attorneys (none directly involved – all sue for a living). The cut to the chase question for the lawyers was:
“Will there be financial awards?”
Four out of four were quick to answer:
“Yes.”
The dark side for American football depends on whether these four attorneys are right.
The suits against the NFL/Riddle are based on the fact that a significant number of players have received permanent brain injuries while playing for the NFL. There are dozens of reports that prove this. A Michigan University study of former players found that:
“Alzheimer’s disease or similar-memory related diseases occur ‘vastly’ more often than the national population – including a rate of 19 times the normal rate for men ages 30-49.”
NY Giant’s ex ace QB, Jeff Hostetler, has filed a suit against the NFL. A review of the court papers (Link – paragraphs 47-117) lists the medical conclusions that football is directly linked to permanent brain injury. It's going to be very hard for the NFL to beat this.
That football is dangerous and players might get traumatic brain injuries is old news. The basis of the suits is that the NFL teams, knowing full well the risks that the players were taking, willfully ignored the scientific evidence, and repeatedly put the players at neurological risk.
A critical issue for the teams/players is, "What did the teams do when a player incurred a head injury during play/practice?" As far back as 1999 it was shown that players who received a concussion during practice or a game were 4Xs more likely to receive another concussion in the following 10 days.
The NFL ignored this information. It was not until 2009 that it established rules that required players who exhibited any sign of concussion had to be removed from a game or practice, and be barred from returning the same day. But there are hundreds of documented cases since 2009 where players who received a head injury that produced symptoms of concussion who were returned to the playing field within minutes of the original injury.
The problem that the teams face is that it’s not possible to diagnose a minor concussion on the field. The league established a practice of identifying a player with a concussion as one who had to be carried off on a stretcher. The lawsuits allege that the teams/NFL knew the facts on concussions, and their documented actions put the players at risk. This is referred to as Willful Misconduct. If the juries agree with this (I think they have to), then the financial awards will go through the roof.
Can the NFL afford these suits? Some say they can, and point to the fact that the 32 teams have a value in excess of $40 billion, and revenues of $20+ Billion a year. I don’t think this argument stands up. There are 1,700 active pro players each year. The suits will go back at least ten-years. The evidence is that as many as 60% of all players have suffered multiple concussions during their careers. When a class action settlement is made, thousands of additional players will seek compensation. The individual awards will be in the millions. Based on this, the total damages could easily exceed $20 billion. That would put a very deep hurt on the NFL and the team owners.
An import question for the courts will be Riddell Sports’ liability. If there is liability on behalf of Riddell, it creates a major problem. Can Riddell (the official provider of helmets for the NFL) continue to make helmets knowing full well that every helmet that goes out the door is a lawsuit to be in the future? I would think not.
I’ll come back to the problems with the NFL, but first some thoughts on college, high school and pre-teen football. There has to be some very substantial changes for this group of athletes. The medical evidence is clear. The younger a person receives head injuries, the greater the chance of a lifetime consequences.
When the lawyers finish busting up the NFL, they will turn their sights onto colleges and high schools. In our litigious society more football suits are a sure thing. What will happen to the big football schools? All of these Universities have mega endowments. The schools are sitting ducks for lawsuits. Then there is the moral issue. How can a University field a team knowing that half of the players are taking life time risks?
I can imagine that Penn/Ohio State will be one of the last Universities to come to grip with this problem, but what about the Ivy’s? Can Yale, Cornell, Brown etc. stand up to the coming suits? I would think not. The legal risks are too high. Can the Trustees at Harvard (or the Army/Navy/Air Force) put their students at risk of turning their brains into Jell-O?
The only question I have is which University is going to drop football first.
High school football is at risk. The evidence is clear that the earlier in life a person receives multiple head injuries, the greater the probability of medical complications later in life. Will individual towns that sponsor high school teams get sued in the future? It would appear that this is inevitable. Knowing that they may get sued will force changes. But the most compelling argument is, again, the moral one. How can a municipality support a sport that it knows will cause traumatic injury to the players? Based on the information now available, we know that football for high school is like giving kids cigarettes. A percentage of the players will be affected in their lives.
A check of the Internet shows that across the country the issue of high school football is up for discussion.
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Now go back to the NFL. What’s the future?
- The existing suits (and those that are coming) will result in payouts to former players and substantial losses.
- The suits will force changes in the way that football is played. The suggestions on how to reduce the risk of head injuries include:
I) No kick offs or punt returns. (What?)
II) No blocking or tackling above the waist. (Impossible)
III) Strict rules on a player who does use his upper body when making plays. Players who break the new contact rules will face multiple game suspensions. Repeat offenders will not be allowed to play. (There would be few players left)
IV) Players will be forced to wear new uniforms that substantially increase padding. New helmets with both a soft and a hard surface will be the rule. Players will look like the Michelin Man on the field. The ability to run fast and maneuver will be diminished. (Think of this, it doesn't work)
V) Television will be banned from showing any hard hits. Announcers will be forced to not speak of any aggressive blocking and tackling. (The assumption is that the TV attention on those doing the hard hits contributes to the number of injuries.) (Boring....)
There will be more rules. A significant one is what will teams do when and if a player does have a head bump during practice or a game. The players will have to be monitored, assessed, evaluated or otherwise examined to insure that any transitory or permanent injury is properly recognized, diagnosed and treated before allowing return to play.
How can the NFL teams maintain this standard? If every player who had head contact was forced to sit out the rest of the game, then the teams would run out of players before the 4th quarter. (The scrubs take over at the end of a game? Where's the fun in that?)
What is the future of the NFL if/when these changes are implemented? I’m curious to hear from readers. I think it will kill the public interest in the game. From an audience perspective, the hard-hitting nature of the sport is part of the reason for the popularity. Without the speed and action (hard hits) on the field, pro football will lose fans.
I conclude that American football is going to have to go through some radical changes. High School teams will disappear; college and university ball is going to be suspended by some schools. Pro-football is going to be transformed into something that will not work.
Sorry if I have ruined some reader's Father's Day. Try to enjoy it anyway.
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I believe that studies show that over 50 percent of ex-NFL players go broke. Many of the plaintiffs are probably counting on a payday to make up for their pissing away of those fortunes. Just ask Bernie Kosar, Warren Sapp and Mark Brunnell to name a few. Brunnell was ahead of the curve. He declared bankruptcy while he was still playing. I believe his lifetime earnings were north of $50 million.
Yeah NFL needs to cut salaries - particullarly at the top and create a funded pension scheme. Gold plated healthcare for life and $50k a year to live on for every player. Vesting would be the tricky part. It would almost need to vest per play you are on the field, with some kind of catastophic injury insurance policy. Don't want to make 3rd string punters set for life.
I've actually thought a noble life would be starting a sports agency that puts a strong emphasis on financial planning for its clients. Unless you were a finance undergrad or had REALLY responsible parents teaching you the meaning of $$, its hard for any kid to be responsible with the kind of money thrown at players right out of school. Same with rockstars/rappers. They all fail to realize that if they are lucky enough to have 1 successful alblum - its 99% likely it will be their only one.
Lottery winners often go broke.
I'm not sure what point your making by using this as a point of discussion, though.
That they are 'stupid'? No, I'd disagree with that. Plenty have done well with their money. I know lots of smart people who didn't make much money who are bankrupt. None play football or won a lottery. They rolled the dice with a speculative investment, or tried to start a business or some other thing.
We take risks. We have failures. That's life. We try to find ways to limit or mitigate those risks - physical or financial.
We were having this discussion at work last week amongst us sports guys, and we all came to the conclusion that football will not be played in ten years. Its not only football; lawsuit happy MMA fighters will sue the UFC out of business as well; boxing as well, though these will exist in other countries. Interest in basketball will surge, and possibly soccer will finally see serious interest in the US.
The only thing that's gonna bring boxing to an end will be more decisions like the Pacquiao/Bradley fight.
What the fuck was that insanity?
I think it's called " the fix ".
I once heard Chris Rock say, "to say boxing ain't fixed is like saying hot sauce ain't hot".
make them play soccer,aka european football.
Or they could play baseall.
Sports lawsuits aren't a net negative, its not zero sum game. its merely a transfer of wealth from the owners to the players and legal counsel, who are more likely to actually spend it.
This could be a positive for economic growth.
And Amerikan's continue to got to games, buy memorabilias and watch countless hours of crap to ensure they are stupid enough and breed the same stupidity.
I don't. Not since Joe Namath beat Johnny Unitas.
We are DEVO.
Not so quick, Bruce - all the lawyers and all the bs won't get past a simple interrogatory - what part about football, Mr. Player, gave you the idea it was safe? Case dismissed. Only a few juries will suck up to this stuff -
Sorry Judge, by your logic there could be no recovery for asbestosis if the employer disclosed the danger. That's not how liability/negligence works.
This is not about players getting hurt - it's about knowingly sending hurt players out to get hurt again.
Well, this has reached class action status. Either there is a settlement, or there will be trials. A trial brings the risk of tripple damages.
As far as those interrogatories go, the NFL and the teams have the most to lose. Once disclosure starts, it will show that there was a steady effort by teams to hurt apposing players. It will show that the teams did not follow the recomendations from medical research.
Do you really thinks the NFL wants go "Open Kimono" on this?? Not a chance.
Screw the NFL and TV. Obamna and his cronies and puppetmasters are shredding everyone's rights. I stopped watching NFL shit post 2008 when they were running slo mo promos of Obama in the middle of the game during commercials. It was far creepier than Joe Stalin love during the old USSR. Followed by Govt Motors ads and the dumb white guy commercials during all ball games.
The can of worms will be bigger with college football. That is my prediction.
Class action or not, it won't matter, in fact, make it simpler - this is a case of personal choice made by adults who have seen the possible indeed probable consequence of this behavior - the case (cases) will go nowhere and the NFL is not a conspiracy of assassins - it is contact sport - never been anything but - sorry, but it will take a very, very liberal jury to go anywhere with this and it will ultimately fail - and the NFL will go balls out on this - open Kimono and bent over....
Like maybe those liberal tobacco juries?
Damn liberal juries, always out looking for a good lawsuit.
Joe Paternio was right. Take the facemasks off.
Joe Paternio was right. Leave before the lawyers get you.
Leather helmets, less padding and steel turf spikes. Purify the game by returning it to its original state.
+1
Rollerball: It's the future.
duh, who cares about the future of american football when the future of america is so uncertain.
Displaced Priorities as they say. Somuch for common sense in the USSA. Like ot see what the celebration is going to be in the USSA on 4th of July.
Fuck Football, basketball, Baseball .Great rolemodels they say. screw that. Parents are getting stupid everyday and breed stupidity. Why not do Calc and teach kids to do chores and study and build things. Nope that would be too logical in Amerika.
I COMPLETELY disagree! My daughter played recreation, school and travel Basketball. She had a personal coach for 4 years that plaed for NKU. She wasn't just learning how to put a ball in a basket. She learned to give respect when it was do and even when it wasn't. She learned how to work with a team of girls she loved and how to work with ones she hated. She learned how to keep her body in shape and really press herself towards a goal she sought after. She has the self-confidence to handle herself in situations that would make adults nervous. She learned that life isn't always fair but that its always what you make of it. It shaped her and it kept her busy when other girls were trying out boys and alcohol or drugs. It made her ACCOUNTABLE. She plans on teaching special needs children, something she volunteers to do already. She happens to be anamazing artist as well and she plans on providing art therapy for them. She is also hoping to get the chance to coach girls basketball and be able to include autistic children on her team. You are wrong about sports. The parents that ruin it for the rest of us are just bad parents and they would ruin ballet as well IMO.
So because of sports she never tried out boys? I'd see that as a pretty big development deficit...
Also... I work from home so I KNOW where my kids are.
Practice 5 nights a week. Games 2 days a week. Personal training 1 night a week. Keeping grades up to be eligable... She didn't have the time to try them out the way a lot of other girls did. She had boyfriends but they were at the game sitting next to me. We were travelling as a family on the weekends together. Keeping her body fit and un-pregnant was a major neccesity for her. Her boyfriend also didn't want to make a mistake and ruin his future. Not to mention neither of them wanted to face a coach they looked up to and say they had screwed up. Yes sports did all that.
You don't see me on here complaining about the youth of today. My kids have been wonderful to raise and I love them more than everything. They are good, smart and hilarious little rebels that are prepared to navigate the screwed up unaccountable freaks that a lot of others have raised. They'll have no problem ruling those who require being told what to do and can't make decisions on their own!
Bumper Sticker!
LOL The only magnet on the back of my car is a Ron Paul 2012 one that I'm too stubborn to pitch just yet.
Sports are great. Bigtime, high pressure sports are not always so good. I don't see bigtime college sports building much character since a large percentage of the players are at the college merely to be minor league sports players.
Division III athletics is a much better example of student athlete principles than Division I.
I agree with you about College not building much charactor. It needs to be built before then anyways. My child - my job.
I recently bought a hand held manual screwdriver that included the warning "User and people standing nearby must wear safety gogles." Once the lawyers get ahold of this, football is kaput!
And when I think how many times I've nearly poked an eye out with a screwdriver which didn't have that warning! Oh, that's zero times over probably thousands of uses. Nannycrats just can't get enough of protecting outselves from ourselves. I hate my new circular saw with all its "safety" shut off features which actually makes it more dangerous and hard to use than my 30 year old one.
There's no replacemnt for personal responsibility. And accidents will, inevitably happen. Life, its damn dangerous, just ask the millions of extinct species. But freedom from nannycrats-that's priceless.
fact check: who are these lawyers who sue for a living? Would there be any connection between them and the doctors who medicate peeple for a living, the wackos who invent weapons the better to kill folks with?!?! - the 'scientists' who invent faux diseases for a dyin, and the hollowood hierarchs who dissimulate for a living...and the rest of the high livin hoaxsters who decided that, rather than beat whitey(n blackie too in this case!) at his own game[s], they'd just grow up to become the rule makers...and change the name of the game to "DEATH TO AMERIKA[n]S...LONG LIV KHAZARIA~!???
It's all bullshit now....all of the time....psy-ops designed to deprive men n women of the dignity of their respective genders.
>>who are these lawyers who sue for a living? <<
Revenge of the Nerds. Every bully who ever preyed on us in high school has a permanent target on his back, and football "heros" top the list.
Watch your back,
We nerds will attack,
And you'll get such a smack.
I suggest a rules change. Allow more forward laterals. Defense would have to play back on their heels a bit and might reduce those concussive hits some. American football would be more like rugby. Forward laterals allowed after football has crossed line of scrimmage by anymore who has the ball.
I didn't know rugby allowed forward laterals??
It doesn't. The only way to move the ball forward is to carry it or kick it. Any hand-tossed ball must be lateral or backwards. Wasn't American football originally the same? No forward passing?
Soccer?
Jump in front of a speeding car with a helmet on.It's a goon sport,what do you expect.
@10mm
The helmet is the problem. Lose the helmet and there would be a lot less injuries. They could bring back leather helmets are emulate rugby, where there are no helmets. Hell, I've taken a liking to rugby because it only lasts about 30 minutes compared to the 3.5 to 4 hour drone fests that college and pro football have become.
Not sure if they are leather, but I've seen some sort of skull-cap-style helmets making occasional appearances in rugby matches. I agree about the duration of the matches though. The main reason NFL games are such a chore is because of the lunatic amount of commercial time-outs that break up the rhythm of the game.
those helmets mainly protect you from a thing called 'cauliflower ear' which is also becoming quite common in the MMA world
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauliflower_ear
As a side note, I was watching Wallenda cross the Niagara this past weekend, and when I saw the safety harness attached to him I couldn't help but think that this was a perfect analogy of what america has become and why it will never be great again.
That Wallenda thing was definitely weird. I thought the whole Wallenda MO was to do these wire-walks without safety nets or harnesses. Mind you I always thought they were certifiably insane for doing it, but there was no denying its what made them the #1 name in that activity.
It looked like the wire even had a series of suspended weights attached along the length of the span, I suppose to help steady the wire. Again something ol' Grandpa Wallenda never used when he walked between hi-rise buildings, all the way up until his last and fatal attempt at something like age 70.
Looks like US soccer just got its break.
I just wish soccer would implement 3 changes:
1) shot clock (why am I here? oh, yeah, it is a soccer match)
2) bonus pt line. You launch it far out you should get credit.
3) hockey style fighting. Let em go at it! No more of this flopping and feigning injury, get it on!
just kidding. lighten up, happy father's day!
You shouldn't be kidding. American Rules Soccer. Regular soccer is for purists. Americans want to be entertained. Have they got cheerleaders, yet?