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Facebook Bubble Blowing Justification Exercises Commence Today
There's an awful lot of chatter in the blogoshpere over the last 48 hours discussing the remote possibility that Morgan Stanley would be able to defend the Facebook offering as properly priced. PUHLEASE! In case my readers and subscribers don't recall my many warnings on this company and the hype job put on it by Goldman and Morgan - reference As I Promised Last Year, Facebook Is Being Proven To Be Overhyped and Overpriced!, let's run through a quick refresher course.
As is often said, a picture is worth more than 982 words...
Keep in mind that a deluge of supply (in terms of common shares) is about to hit the market which should do wonders for this extremely richly valued price. So, the question remains, "Is Facebook Yet a 'Buy' (in Sell Side Wall Street huckster parlance)?" Well, the sell side seems to believe so. Check this out...
6 Buys, 3 Neutrals
Average Price Target = $39
BofA/Merrill – Neutral - $38 PT
Goldman Sachs – Buy - $42 PT
Oppenheimer – Outperform - $41 PT
JPMorgan – Overweight - $45 PT
Piper Jaffray – Overweight - $41 PT
Wells Fargo – Outperform - $37-$40 Range
Credit Suisse – Neutral - $34 PT
Citigroup – Neutral - $35 PT
Morgan Stanley – Overweight - $38
The specific, numerical, actionable answer from my team is the purview of paying subscribes only, but we can always throw some common sense on the topic for free - as per pages 6 and 7 of our March Facebook valuation report -
FB IPO Analysis & Valuation Note - update with per share valuation (317.36 kB 2012-05-21 09:43:30), pages 6, 7 and 10.
Of course Facebook enthusiasm was burning hot. The coals in the "investor" (and I put this lightly) fire are being stoked by none other than the sell side agents doing God's work, among others. It appears as if those who stoked said coals may be making another run at it. Well, it's just a simple as this. Who are you going to believe, the sell side hype machine or your lyin' eyes (AKA, BoomBustBlog performance and accuracy)? Reference Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?
Professional and institutional BoomBustBlog subscribers have access to a simplified unlocked version of the valuation model used for our Facebook analysis, available for immediate download - Facebook Valuation Model 08Feb2012. The full forensic opinion is available to all subscribers here FaceBook IPO & Valuation Note Update. It is recommended that subscribers (click here to subscribe) also review the original analyses (
FB note final 01/11/2011) as well as the following free blog posts on the topic:
- Facebook Registers The WHOLE WORLD! Or At Least They Would Have To In Order To Justify Goldman’s Pricing: Here’s What $2 Billion Or So Worth Of Goldman HNW Clients Probably Wish They Read This Time Last Week!
- Facebook Becomes One Of The Most Highly Valued Media Companies In The World Thanks To Goldman, & Its Still Private!
- Here’s A Look At What The Goldman FaceBook Fund Will Look Like As It Ignores The SEC & Peddles Private Shares To The Public Without Full Disclosure
- The Anatomy Of The Record Bonus Pool As The Foregone Conclusion: We Plug The Numbers From Goldman’s Facebook Fund Marketing Brochure Into Our Models
- Did Goldman Just Rip Its HNW and Institutional Clients Once Again? Facebook Growth Slows Pre-IPO, Just As We Warned!
- The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1
- The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly
- advertisements -
faceFart will stink up the joint come first earnings call.
As goes FB, so goes Amerika?
Trademark RM bragging not withstanding, ZH contributions today appear to be variations on a 39-month dying bull theme that may finally come true.
Could the tipping point have finally arrived?
Puts a bears' best friend at FB/global markets flash crash.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Eb3Sf6Kf1I 3:24
RichCash@RichCash8 Twitter
http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/
Fadebook - b.February 4, 2004. d. February 4 2017
I think it has a MySpace type of death long before 2017.
What do you mean you 'shorted FB on IPO'? How did you do that? And many of us here said it would flop.
FEDBOOK.
Yeah, put it all online, baby. Fuckerberg probably sends the entire site's contents over to the Barry X campaign.
Keene report this morning had a guy shilling for Fedbook; some probing questions were asked in which the shill tried dancing around.
"well, uh, they are looking for future revenue from everyone using their smart phones and FB accounts to buy stuff with direct pay apps on their phones....sometime in the future.
FEDBOOK is now applying facial recognition to the product.
They gave everyone an @facebook email whether they wanted it or not. Now you'll get spammed with viagra adz....
Doesn't matter what you say Reggie, doesn't matter what the data says either. Facebook is a tool stock of the Algos now.
Facebook may go to $100 a share by mid July, it may go to $10. There will be no justification and everyone will be searching for a reason.
The only answer is that the computers needed to move some cash around. If MS computers want shares they wil buy them from Goldman computers, which will cause JP computers to want to buy shares. Since the computers don't care about earnings projections or reality, only that they are programmed to buy, Facebook shares will be bought at any price.
What you get is bullshit price moves just like every traded stock out there. The market isn't real, it is a bullshit simulator sadly playing with real money. You shouldn't be on TV trying to justify fair valuation, but on TV screaming every day for the farce to be shut down.
One word, TULIPS!
People will pay, what people will pay.
I stopped reading when you said FB may go to $100 a share by mid July.
My crystal ball says $28. It may be overhyped but it's not worthless.
... I really don't care what my ex girlfriends from decades ago are doing on Lacebook.
Maybe someone will pay to see them and talk, but I highly doubt it.
Perhaps if they inserted local police blotters of who got busted along with likes and dislikes it might attract the curiosity seekers. I suppose that would end up Racebook and shut down, too.
Monetising privacy is a dead end.
Ever looked to the linkedin privacy settings?
toal joke!
We copy connections from the competition and send our salesforce over there. You just can't shut it down!
Totally open!
Love it :)