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Now Is The Time To Prepare For The (Next) French Bailout Of Their Banking System & Potential Bailout Of France

Reggie Middleton's picture





 

 

An update of "shortable" (as in still having some meat on the bone) French banks is available for download to subscribers - French Bank Observations & Focus on...(519.21 kB 2012-06-28 08:36:37).  Part and parcel to this common sense update is recognition of the fact that Italy will bust French banks, causing France to do the socialist bailout thingy. See this chart from the report...

French bank Italian exposure

French bank Italian Exposure: As Italy pops with outrageous funding yields (just like Greece), France will be forced to bailout its banks once again, leaving the socialist country facing the dilemma of potentially having to ask for a bailout itself. As you may know from my previous writings, the French banking system is bigger than France itself so a true bailout cannot practically come from within.

Of course, this was apparent two years ago...

This impetus of this video stemmed from the post Ovebanked, Underfunded, and Overly Optimistic: The New Face of Sovereign Europe, for as France decides to to the socialist thingy, they may put themselves in the position of needing a bailout - as excerpted:

I will attempt to illustrate the "Overbanked" argument and its ramifications for the mid-tier sovereign nations in detail below and over a series of additional posts.

Sovereign Risk Alpha: The Banks Are Bigger Than Many of the Sovereigns

image015.png

Can the EU quasi-sovereign (they are not truly sovereign due to a lack of fiscal autonomy, and Germany is looking to limit that even more) states truly afford to bailout banking systems that are multiples of their GDP? Hell Nah!!!

I have made this quite clear in the past, namely in Watch The Pandemic Bank Flu Spread From Italy To France To ... where I simply quoted the arithmetical obvious, then in French Banks Can Set Off Contagion That Will ... where I basically did the same. Shouldn't the rating agencies start getting much rougher with France, or is the lesser of the dynamic bailout duo to sacrosant to touch with truly empirical bailout gloves???

Of course, all of this simply conforms to my F.I.R.E. thesis from the beginning of the year, a thesis which was actually aired through the MSM...

  1. Reggie Middleton Sets CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!! Jan 4, 2012 – Last week I offered my susbscribers examples of the 2nd and 3rd sectors of the FIRE...
  2. First I set CNBC on F.I.R.E., Now It Appears I've Set ... Jan 6, 2012 – burning-house Tuesday I literally Set CNBC on F.I.R.E.!!! as the only pundit/analyst/investor to warn of the FIRE (finance/insurance/real es...
  3. Portuguese Liquidity Trap: When You Add Too ... Mar 12, 2012 – In this followup to Greece Is Trying To Convince Portugal To MakeF.I.R.E. Hot I think we should get straight to the point - Anyone who does...
  4. Greece Is Trying To Convince Portugal To Make F.I.R.E. Hot!!! Mar 9, 2012 – Minutes ago I posted So, What's Next Step Towards The Eurocalypse? wherein I illustrated the folly in believing this CAC-powered Greek bon..
  5. The F.I.R.E. Is Set To Blaze! Focus On Banks, part 1 - Jun 13, 2012 – Note to subscribers, updated research availalble: GS Revenue Analysis Q2 12 - our opinion of the robustness of Goldman's upcoming quarter

No Capital Controls In The EMU? Liar Liar Pants On Fire 3 days ago – I have outlined the upcoming EU bank runs up to two years in advance (see the many links below). Whenever one expects a bank run, the first 

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Thu, 06/28/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment cardis
cardis's picture

... jean loi survived catarina... back from missy pippi... staging now at the elyseum.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

You're the man, Reg. Like a Banshee howlin' in the wind.

Europe is the sittin' duck. When this publicity collapse finally false-flags the Europeans without countries, they will be the first to climb aboard the New World Order death march.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

im saying that it all falls apart by 4 July....at least in the EU-some unknown trigger-a surprise- a closet opened with skeletons-you can hear the screaching of the timbers getting ready to break that are propping up the dam

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment janus
janus's picture

reginald!

i've been meaning to come by for a while now.

you see, ole janus believes in antique ideas like honor, duty, integrity...etc. etc.  you know, those meaningless relics of a by-gone age.  and, if you'll recall, i told you i'd try and do something for you.

janus has a very good friend down there who played b-ball at auburn (ROLL TIDE!); and this guy is well-connected among the retired athletes who've returned to central alabama (awww DAMN, reggie, you wouldn't believe a party janus attended -- i was one of the only white-boys, but have rarely felt more welcome; they did, afterall, keep the pussy runnin hot and cold...there is no shortage.)  well, they like most others have been getting bent over by lying scum-bag financial advisors.  i think i could have done something grand for you in this regard...but the screws were tightening down on janus so fast at that particular time that i could only focus on escape.

i hope you don't hold it against me...failin to live up to my word and all.  i do feel rather shitty about it -- and, really, there's little i can do about it now...seein how they'd arrest me if i went back down there.

i'm sort-of a political exile.

so, reggie, here ya go:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGLR25EJtfE

janus

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

WTF?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 14:26 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

ne... personne

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 14:21 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Seems like a (another) John Law fiasco (see 1700's and the Mississippi Bubble).  John Law sold France on paper, that then caused a very chaotic economic collapse in France. Revolutions.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:53 | Link to Comment El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Now that the SHTF with the (Sick)preme Court ruling today things will accelerate in collapsing ours, and the global economies...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

HALT! Are those Euros in your pocket?

Or are you just glad to see me?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 11:50 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Can't US taxpayers bail out France?!

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

"yes we can" with chinese money! 

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:43 | Link to Comment No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

I think they're going to ask Iceland for a bailout.

Fri, 06/29/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Where is the Bailout Circle (Circus)....how do we break-in and join up the Bailout Circus.

Should be fun with lots of bumps and grinds.

Fiats and circuses...Ole' !

 

Central Bang-King system...get Mutti and Sark and Strauss-Kahn and Silvio back in the circle/circus...wee need more stimulation !!   We need a picture of this from WB7.

Need a major Lagarde fluffer in the middle to whip things up...feathers!! and whips.

Got Gold ?

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

With the new healthcare law being upheld, we will need the bailouts soon.  We bring in 2.2 trillion and now te new law costs that much.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

They're working on it.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 11:11 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

No capital controls in the EMU ???

..you cannot take more than €10,000 Euros across a customs border ...you can bank transfer it but you can hear the ticking clock on even that soon

these capital controls are ENTIRELY driven by broke desperate Bankers ...Govt and Regulators are crony window fronts to their insidious society-abusing business practices including forcing small business to comply/administer their rotten controls

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Dup

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

You can bring as much money as you want across the borders in the EU. You just have to declare it.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

Of which customs borders do you speak? The dirt tracks in the middle of nowhere? The forests? The unpoliced waterways? The traditional mountain passes? The inter city trains without police or customs officers? Or the frequently un-manned customs posts on the main road system? The odd person gets caught occasionally. But generalised capital controls? Fat chance.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

To say nothing of microlights operating from unlicensed fields and pretty much able to evade radar if you know what you are doing.

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment mirac
mirac's picture

Expect in the USA etc. soon...

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

spot on; alas for french banks and therefore french people. But the train doesn't just stop there...it looks like it'll come home were it all started!

Thu, 06/28/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment mirac
mirac's picture

agree...posting at same time...lol!

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