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Top 10 Warning Signs of a Global Endgame

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By EconMatters

What a difference a year has made!  About this time last year, the dollar seemed on the brink of disaster amid the debt ceiling debate at U.S. Congress.  U.S. CDS spiked 430% in three months, and S&P downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt credit rating for the first time in history.  At the time, Euro crisis looked could be contained, and China's growth story was largely intact to still fuel the world GDP.  So it was of little surprise that the dollar collapse was ranked as the top global risk last year (See Table Below) by consultancy Oxford Analytica that could put the world into a tailspin.  


Now, one year later, while conflicts within and with the Middle East region are still among the top global risks, the paradigm has definitively shifted to China and Europe (See Table and Chart Below). Among the top 10 global risks this year, we see 'Sharp Slowdown in China' as the most clear and present danger to the world.      


Further Reading - 20 Warnings Signs of a Global Doomsday (2011)


 

Data Source: Oxford Analytica, July 1, 2012

 

 

Graphic Source: Oxford Analytica, July 1, 2012

 

With the simultaneous slowdown in U.S. and Europe, China has become a major market for business and corporations to rely on for revenue and growth.  However, economic data coming out of China has gone from bad to worse as Europe's crisis seriously hurt China's heavy export-reliant economy. Chinese manufacturing indexes slipped to 48.4 in June, a seven-month lows, as overseas orders dropped (See Chart Below), while Chinese Yuan also had its biggest quarterly decline in 7 years.  


 

This current economic downshift in China has generated a long rippling effect on many countries and corporations around the world.  For example, China is a key growth market for Nike, and the company's shares suffered their biggest decline since December 2008 last Friday as profits declined due to slow demand in China.  


With China's consumer price index rising only 3% YoY in May, the slowest in 17 months, some believe  Beijing may launch another stimulus program to stabilize growth.  But since China has bad inflation problem, and honestly, the country probably has run out of things to build after its massive 4-trillion-yuan stimulus package post 2008 financial crisis, small and incremental easing measures are most likely in the next 3 to 5 years.  The main concern for China is the lack of data and transparency as to the health of its regional banks, and local governments.  So assuming no major blowup, China most likely would still go through a cool-down period, which also means a few lean years ahead for the rest of the world.    

 

Within the past year or so, Euro crisis has evolved into a full-blown sovereign debt crisis that could potentially cause yet another global banking and economic chaos.  In contrast, since the U.S. is the first wave of the 2008 financial crisis, America is largely on the mend, albeit at a snail's pace.  However, with stubbornly high unemployment rate and low job creation dragging down consumer sentiment and spending, 'U.S. Deflationary Trap' as emerged as the No. 9 global risk.  But for now, we see a cycle of slow or no growth as a more likely scenario for the U.S., rather than a prolonged 'deflation trap'.       


Investor's funds flow out of Europe and risky assets seeking the safety of U.S. Treasury has propped up the Dollar, while keeping the U.S. borrowing cost low, despite Fed's two rounds of quantitative easing and national debt topping the $15-trillion mark.  Nevertheless, the latest CBO report estimates that the U.S. public debt could reach 200% GDP in 25 years if current tax and spending policies are extended.  By comparison, the essentially bankrupt Greece debt load is forecast to just top 160% this year.  And don't forget, the debt ceiling debate could take place again this year.  That suggests it could be just a matter of time that dollar demise would top the global risk chart again.    

 

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Tue, 07/03/2012 - 06:22 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

 

from: 

Corporatism Is Not Capitalism: 7 Things About The Monolithic Predator Corporations That Dominate Our Economy That Every American Should Know

 

 

#1 Corporations not only completely dominate the U.S. economy, they also completely dominate the global economy as well.  A newly released University of Zurich study examined more than 43,000 major multinational corporations.  The study discovered a vast web of interlocking ownerships that is controlled by a "core" of 1,318 giant corporations.

But that "core" itself is controlled by a "super-entity" of 147 monolithic corporations that are very, very tightly knit.  As a recent article in NewScientist noted, these 147 corporations control approximately 40 percent of all the wealth in the entire network....

When the team further untangled the web of ownership, it found much of it tracked back to a "super-entity" of 147 even more tightly knit companies - all of their ownership was held by other members of the super-entity - that controlled 40 percent of the total wealth in the network. "In effect, less than 1 percent of the companies were able to control 40 percent of the entire network," says Glattfelder. Most were financial institutions. The top 20 included Barclays Bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and The Goldman Sachs Group.

Unsurprisingly, the "super-entity" of 147 corporations is dominated by international banks and large financial institutions.  For example, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are all in the top 25.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 06:27 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

That article is a great display of the cognitive dissonance that shows up on these boards daily.

Corporatism is the absolute telos of Capitalism.

The naivete is astounding.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

Do you think free enterprise and capitalism are the same thing?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 05:24 | Link to Comment Fort
Fort's picture

Just ten, why not hundred, thousand, how many warning signs do you need. Stop that clock ticking please, my house of cards is almost finished and the vibration of that damn clock might just collapse it.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 03:23 | Link to Comment UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

 

I can't see Fukushima on that top 10 chart. The big corporate gift that will keep on giving for generations.

 

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 01:37 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

How about the white elephant in the room that is the US?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Read slowly with slightly different intonations all 10 are equally believable. Bring it on world. And BTFD.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Read slowly with slightly different intonations all 10 are equally believable. Bring it on world. And BTFD.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Ummm which one of the list above happens?  How a little bit of ALL of the above.  Conceivably if something major happens the other items could take advantage of the situation as focus is taken away.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Fast Twitch
Fast Twitch's picture

And don't forget the record surplus of crude. And record high pump prices so consumers will only use as much as necessary. The surplus is stored for war...

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Well, zero for ten last year.

For this year:

  - Russian Authoritarianism - haven't they had that for a couple thousand years

  - Pakistan collapse - who could tell unless  someone steals the nukes

  - South China Sea conflict - already been going on for many years

  - North Korea - that would be South Korea's problem

  - Cartels capture Mexican state - that happened a long time ago, in US banking cartel captured the state, drug

            dealers are better rulers

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 05:35 | Link to Comment Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

best analysis on the subject :D

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:54 | Link to Comment working class dog
working class dog's picture

Show me the money Germany, Merkel says NEIN!! so better load up on treasuries, Marc Faber said on CNBC to buy good quality Spain equiteis and also German equities. I think the big part of that move is over.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Spot on. "And we shall see." If China's growth slows to "a meager 4 percent" the global economy will "absolutely feel like a depression." The fact of the matter is however the USA sinks or swims on its own recovery. I think John Robert's decision on healthcare will go down in history as one of the gutsiest decisions in history...besides being one of the most significant decisions in history as well. I'm a big supporter! Will it be what breaks us through to a recovery? Don't know. Should the President and Candidate Romney wish to debate (how about a multitude? say "5 days straight?") i offer my services..."to provide that backdrop of dynamism" as is my wont (or is it lot?) in life. Indeed...I...disabledvet hereby offer my services! Let's get this party started! (for the record i have no private health insurance whatsover. though some claim i should. or is it life insurance?)

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 19:14 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Top ten warning signs of 2013 in no particular order

 

  1. China whipsaws from an inflationary cycle to deflationary. China's rich demand everything American
  2. US dollar is king and hyperinflationists finally admit it
  3. Gold sub $1000
  4. Silver sub $15
  5. US manufacturing renaissance led by the Mid West 
  6. Buy American campaign (grass roots, not government driven)
  7. Australian economy in deepest recession since great depression
  8. Expanded Dictatorial leadership in Europe. EU steals the role from the US as global agitator 
  9. US political shake up (scandals and possibly suicides)
  10. M.E. wars end on protests
Tue, 07/03/2012 - 04:52 | Link to Comment Vigilante
Vigilante's picture

10.M.E. wars end on protests

...now... back in the real world...

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 03:08 | Link to Comment denny69
denny69's picture

Manufacturing making a comeback in the midwest? Maybe midwest Asia or Africa. As long as labor is cheaper in other places the American elites will be doing their manufacturing there.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment GOLDTEETHSILVER...
GOLDTEETHSILVERFILLINGS's picture

China's rich start snorting coke end of story!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

US manufacturing renaissance led by the Mid West

Awesome!  I'll be laughing about that one all night.  Thanks!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Don't wet yourself. The fact is that for many machine builders, the US, after a multi decade hiatus, is once again the fastest growing market. It's to my advantage that people find this hard to believe. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
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China's rich demand everything American...

LOL.

Thats funny.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:56 | Link to Comment ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

Man I'm getting so many laughs, I may take this show on the road. 

If you haven't already noticed the pattern, China is the new Japan and as we've seen so many times before, it's America's culture, or perception of, that always stands resilient. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment max2205
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Top one reason we are fucked: The Fed is in Charge

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

the top one reason you americans are fucked, is 'cause you're all letting yourselves get fucked! when will you all take to the streets and take your country back? please give me at least one days' notice, so i can re-subscribe to CNN! i'll be rootin' for you guys! 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 22:01 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

There's nothing wrong with the U.S.A. that 100,000 feet of strong

rope couldn't cure.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment bigmikeO
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11) A socialist muslim is elected president of the US and spends $7 for every $1 increase in GDP amounting to a 50% increase in debt in less than 4 years.

Wait - that could happen again in 2012! We're doomed.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

By any chance are you looking in the mirror?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment sharonsj
sharonsj's picture

He's not a Muslim but I sure wish he was a Socialist.  We'd be better off.  Instead he's a corporate puppet, just like the rest of them.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Obama IS an ARABIC, lying sack of shit douchebag of the highest (read: lowest) order.

He IS a Muslim! He is a cry baby cunt, that cannot stand on his own two feet.

He is not a real man to boot. Real men don't make excuses, or blame others.

FUCK OBAMA.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 02:18 | Link to Comment JuicedGamma
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.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment surf0766
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Marxist, socialist, and Islamist are working together to get rid of capitalism and the U.S.

Can it be any more obvious?

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment mjk0259
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Wait, I thought it was the Jews. Didn't Jews invent socialism? And banking? Now they are working with Islamists?

Protocols of the Elders of Zion needs an update.

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Blue Horshoe Lo...
Blue Horshoe Loves Annacott Steel's picture

No money is flowing into Treasuries.  That's a f*cking lie.  The buyer is the Chairsatan known as Ben Shalom Bernanke.

http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/us-commentary/25568-the-continuing-mystery-of-the-us-treasuries-market

Tyler, link to this guy from Canada's articles.

The US is buying it's own debt & hiding it = End Game approacheth.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 03:45 | Link to Comment beentheredonethat
beentheredonethat's picture

no need to go to some guys website for this info---- its right on the FRED st louis fed website- 60-70% of treasuries are being bought now by the FED- up from 20 % two years ago. Chinese have left the building. There is only one buyer left for usa debt- the fed! Gov spends a dollar- needs to borrow 55 cents, so treasury issues a bond for 55cents and the fed buys 70% of it by printing a fed note for 40 cents. so we have arrived where 40 cents of every dollar the gov spends is now purely printed. It is the magical perpetual money machine, until it isnt. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment ghenny
ghenny's picture

What I get from these forecasts is there are no reliable forecasts at all.  I was around when Oxford Analytica started in Oxford.  The people involved were charming and bright but had no better clue than the man on the street about what was going to happen and this was born out by subsequent events.  The only forecasting team that has had some success for awhile was Pierre Wack's "Group (Environmental) Panning' at Shell International Petroleum Company joint HQ in London and even they wound up becoming purveyors of pscychoanalytic Jungian pablum in the end.  

Most of these forecasting or "scenario building" groups get paid big bucks to make decision makers feel like they are making good decisions.  They are really no better than the astrologers of the acient world and the middle ages.  The "complex adaptive system" that is our world has too many feedback loops and complex interactions for anyone to be able to predict anything out more than a few a days (much like the weather forecasts) and even that is problematic.  The "experts" are not changing this reality by talking about "scenarios" and suggesting we monitor paths to different scenarios.  Thats like talking about the entrails of different sacrificed animals.  Still its nice work if you can get it and people have always paid fortune tellers well out of fear or greed or just plain human desire to feel in control.  Heck I've played that game myself a time or two but I never fooled "myself" that I had a true crystal ball.  All you can do is elucidate the issues and even then you get suprised half the time when you get blind sided by issues you had not even imagined.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

You miss the point of forecasting----

which is to get your 'forecast' to be the most popular and excepted thereby influencing the outcome of human behavior. first off, the get paid, and second off to create situations where you get better information which is then actionable ( insider info ). 

 

by forecasting 'succesfully' you are not succesfully predicting the future, you are succesfully getting people to change their behavior based on your 'forecasts' and thus to put others, and oneself, in a position to make a lot of money off their behavior. 

 

this is the essense of wall street 'forecasting' as a business. 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment mjk0259
mjk0259's picture

Yes, and it's been shown over and over that experts in a particular field are even worse at forecasting the future of that field than a random person.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:49 | Link to Comment Unique Snowflake
Unique Snowflake's picture

Generally I'd agree, but let me predict this. Human nature doesn't change. Technology has improved but wisdom hasn't. This civilisation will end in the same manner as the Roman and previous civilisations did. How is will play out is unclear, given the vastly different population from all the other collapses, but it sure wont be pretty.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 15:51 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

So is it global endgame or are we saved? I can't tell from one headline to the next.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment wonderatitall
wonderatitall's picture

i just blame bush , right. tell me o' massa who do i blame?

obama is king

obama gave us free healthcare no one can afford

obama is god...

yup, blame bush

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

Fuck Yeah! That fucking Muslim Obama appointed Chief Justice Roberts, the guy who wrote the SCOTUS majority opinion upholding ObamaCare.

 

/s

 

you poor bastards better divest yourselves of any remaining illusions regarding now meaningless and corrupted partisan or ideological beliefs.

 

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

As long as it gets the Repubtards to come out and vote for Romney this November then all is right is the world.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 00:38 | Link to Comment drunkenlout
drunkenlout's picture

Romney is essentially the same as Obama.  I'm voting for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian with an actual platform.  To me, "wasting my vote" means voting for someone I oppose.  Doing so is like beating yourself up twice, in the event that your lesser of two evils choice wins.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment crkennedymd
crkennedymd's picture

No, we have saved the global endgame for the next headline. Got it straight?

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Just when you think 'the end' is nigh, TPTB come up with some other scheme to kick the can further down the road.  The schemes are numerous and get more ridiculous as they come down the pike. 

I am more than ready to see this thing implode.  It can't come fast enough for me.

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

cartels taking over mexican state?!

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

bullish for organ theft.

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

How about little green men land their space ship on earth (as a global risk) !

This Oxford forecast is propaganda (disguised at intellectual material) for furthering conning the sheeple.

 

 

 

 

 

Mon, 07/02/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you had to make it personal didn't ya...

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