LIeBORgate swings wide open again. I go indepth at 3:10 in the following interview with the lovingly loquacious Lauren Lyster...
The REIT analysis referred to in the chart can be found here for subscribers (the property by property valuations are for Professional/Institutional subscribers only):
I have just revisited the performance of this company (last update was at least a quarter ago). If my paid subscribers recall, we valued the company at rougly 10% of its current market price (see Cashflows and Debt Preliminary Analysis), with a variety of scenarios to be played out that may affect said valuation. This was based on valuation of key properties of the company, which together accounted 78% of the total portfolio in value terms.
Since then the company has released its full year 2012 results and 1Q2012 quarterly performance. There is no visible improvement in the performance of the company. The company is struggling to handle massive leverage, industry average defying LTVs, proportionately large debt liabilities coming due - the bulk of which is expected to face the music sometime in 2012 in view of upcoming liabilities of over nearly $700 million during the remainder of the year.
Reference the quite informative post from which the graphics below were excerpted: Watch As Near Free Money To Banks Fails To Prevent Nuclear Winter For European CRE
So are there any concrete examples of all of this Reggie style pontification? If course there is. Do you see that chart above where the tiny country of the Netherlands is one of the largest per capita contributors to these bailouts? Well, you don't think all of the expenditure (to be) is free do you? Here are some screenshots of a prominent Dutch property company, on its way down the tubes - subscribers reference (click here to subscribe):
Fastforward to today, and NIEUWE STEEN INVESTMENTS N.V. - NSI (one of our shortlisted REIT) suffered the most due to revaluation of their Dutch office portfolio. It therefore witnessed 26% decline in last 4 months.
NSI is simply a microcosm of what's to come for many larger real asset investors. I have warned that the Dutch, with what many consider to be a strong and relatively stable economy, was not immune to the European contagion, reference Are The Ultra Conservative Dutch Immune To Pan-European Economic Contagion...