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I Lose a Bet, Start an Argument
Back on November 17, 2011 I penned a piece in response to Fed Governor Bullard's assertions regarding the collapse of MF Global. Bullard thought there was no lasting consequences to that blow-out: .
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At the time, I thought that Bullard was full of crap, and that there would be significant consequences to the collapse of MFG. My words:
Okay, Mr. Bullard I'll make you a wager. A six pack of your favorite beer. Give the MFG story another month and it will be a problem. It will undermine markets. It will impact confidence in our financial system. It will impact liquidity. As those things will occur it will force both the Treasury and the Fed to take actions.
I was wrong, Mr. B was right. There were no consequences to the MFG disaster. No heads rolled. No one went to jail. There were no lasting economic consequences. There were were no regulatory changes. The MFG affair was buried. Bullard never accepted my bet, but I still feel I owe him. If he reads this and sends me a note I will forward his beer. He deserves it. He won. Unfortunately, we all "lost" as a result. Today we have yet another MFG in our laps. Perigrine Financial has followed the exact same path as MFG. The PFG bankers looted customer accounts.
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I lost a bet for $12 worth of beer. Customers at Peregrine have lost $220m (so far). I can’t help wondering what would have happened had won the bet. If there had been hell to pay regarding the MFG affair, things might have turned out differently for Peregrine’s customer. But there was no market reaction, the CFTC ignored the signs, the SEC never lifted a finger. Nothing changed, so history has repeated itself.
Perigrine customers, looking at a loss today, might be warming up lawsuits against Bart Chilton and the CFTC. He clearly fell down on the job. I think he should be fired on the spot. Fed Governor Bullard is not responsible for the failure of Peregrine (or MFG), but his dismissing attitude is:
This is no big deal, it will blow over”
To that extent, he shares in the blame.
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The markets are boring, so let's talk about global warming
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I have absolutely no credentials or expertise to discuss matters related to climate change. I’ll do it anyway. I follow this topic and read what I can. In my opinion:
I) - Climate change is happening on a global scale. The evidence that this occurring is conclusive.
II) - I don’t know if humans are contributing to the rapid change, but I suspect they are.
III) - Even if there were conclusive evidence that human activity was contributing to global warming, I’m not at all sure that there is anything that can be done about it.
Consider these before and after pictures from NASA. These are images of the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska.
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May 13, 2012
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One month later
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Okay, so some ice melted. Is that a big deal? The folks at NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) think it is:
Sea ice retreat in June is typical, but the first half of June 2012 brought unusually rapid ice loss.
How unusual?
On June 19, 2012, NSIDC reported: “Recent ice loss rates have been 100,000 to 150,000 square kilometers per day, which is more than double the climatological rate.”
Double the rate? How much ice is melting every day in the Beauford Sea? About the size of the state of Illinois – big!
As of June 18, temperatures were above freezing over much of the sea ice in the Arctic, and snow had melted earlier than normal, leading to warming on land.
June 18? It has been hot as hell over the globe since then. This year’s arctic ice melt will set a record.
The rapid melt north of Alaska was part of a larger phenomenon. Sea ice across the entire Arctic reached record-low levels for this time of year. It was also lower than the extent in June 2007; Arctic sea ice reached its lowest extent ever recorded by satellite in September 2007.
This is not a record that we want to set. Now consider this number:
20,900,000,000,000
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20.9 Trillion is the number of pounds of CO2 that humans sent into the atmosphere in the last 12 months. It’s hard to relate to a number as big as that. Think seven billion Hondas. But even that is a number that is hard to fathom, as there are only a billion cars in the world today. How could we be producing 7Xs the weight of all the cars, every year?
Is there a connection to the incredible output of CO2 and the rapid ice melt that is happening all over the world? I wish I knew the answer to this question. I do know that CO2 emissions are directly tied to population growth/economic activity. The question is how rapidly CO2 output will rise:
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Any thoughts?
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Yes, actually, i found one straw man. Someone named OdinsBeard who use intentionally insulting language toward another member of the ZH community evidently believing the logic of his argument would not suffice.
True discourse, argument and counter argument, is possible but only in an environment of mutual respect.
Next time try plain speaking a see whether the facts you want to put forward are persuasive. Insulting dialog is not.
What complete horseshit. You make comments about Obama being the Antichrist (which nobody said but you) and believers in the literal truth of the Bible (which once again nobody argued but yourself) and then you have the nerve to whine as you did above in your italicized statement?
You are a pussy. You run your mouth, and then cry foul when you get what you give. Go cry in Mr. Rogers' neighborhood, princess- Mr. Tyler's is rather different
That you lack even the basic intellectual ability to understand the utter hypocrisy of your comments certainly doesn't help your case any.
Hey there. Yes, you see this is why I don't tend to bother engaging in discussion with these types - their debating style is pure old school marxist. If you can't refute the facts, engage in mud slinging and attack the person. That automatically places doubt in the minds of the listener as to whether the facts being presented are correct - if you throw enough mud it tends to stick. As a bonus, if they can get the other debater to get angry and emotional then they'll twist your words whilst you're too mad to notice so they "win". Lets just say that my background enables me to spot this type of "debate" a mile away!
What makes me sad is the intelectual dishonesty of most of the scientist types these days - they've turned their science into a religion and also defend it in a similar manner to the cults. What ever happened to honest science? Now it's all too often making the data fit the theory/model...
BTW can you remember back when this place was actually Fight Club - how come these nancies are so sensitive?
Provide evidence of fraudulent science as you claim.... or STFU...
I can provide many examples of fraudulent behaviour by the denialistas....
Do you want to play?
The GHG model predicts warming. Not just that, but it predicts a specific pattern of warming. That pattern includes:
* Nights warming faster than days
* Winter warming faster than summer
* Less heat escaping to space
* Cooling upper atmosphere (because the heat is not escaping Earth)
* The Arctic should warm faster than any other part of Earth
All of these things were predicted decades ago by the GHG model. They are all occurring, even while the sun's output is down slightly. The Earth is warming, and we're the cause.
One of my favorite explanations as to why the earth was warmer during the dinosaur age and a possible reason why the dinosaurs are extinct (besides an asteroid strike), is the the dinosaurs farted themselves to death. Yep, no man around with their evil industrial production, so the dinosaurs emitted to much carbon through their farts. LOL.
I love liberals and their logic. They would be hilarious if they weren't so dangerous.
Ha ha! I love conservatives(?) and their non-logic! Dinosaurs becoming extinct because of their farts. I can't wait to spread this one around! (no, I don't do stupid stuff like that, but for some reason I'm getting the impression that such childish shit isn't beyond your application). Next thing you know these folks will be having us believe that the earth is flat and that the sun revolves around it! Ha ha!
In a real debate you'd be strewn on the floor and used to mop up your own piss. Not one fucking thing centering on debate from you and you call others stupid?
the earth did at one time in fact have a full bored "greenhouse effect" for thousands of years...something "akin" to Venus but "liveable." I think ferns at that time grew to like 50 feet or something.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum good time to be a mammal apparently.
All soil is not equal. It takes proper soil to create lavish growth. It takes readily available minerals to create soil that provides for abundant life.
The earth's cycles are pretty simple. It cycles through a glacial period in order to reintroduce usable minerals into soils (pulverize lots of boulders/rocks). Humans have lived by mimicking this for thousands of years through their farming practices: though more recently, yes, THROUGH SCIENCE (which is a PROCESS), have come to an understanding of how this process works.
The inter-glacial period, in which humans live/thrive, lasts until there is insufficient carbon sequestration, which occurs primarily through vegetation. Rainfall washes away topsoil, and minerals, off the land masses and in to oceans and other bodies of water (where they are not as capable of generating the same carbon sequestration as occurs on land masses). Loss of topsoil means less vegetation, which means less carbon sequestration, which then leads to increased warming and greater release of water vapor (melting glaciers).
Farmers can understand this. I don't think city-folk (whatever their political bent is) do. Whether folks agree with how climate change is occurring or not, I believe that it's in everyone's interest to understand the importance of soils, especially topsoils.
I'll listen to someone who runs a tractor before anyone else... Here's reality:
http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s350770.htm
John D. Hamaker was right about the importance of rock dust. His, then, nuttiness about remineralizing the earth is founded in stuff that's highly tangible (as demonstrated in the above article).
Do you know what the "Greenhouse Effect" is? Do you think that the Earth would be habitable by H. Sapiens without the water vapour and C02 that currently is in the atmosphere?
Nothing can or will be done about global warming, now or ever, for the rest of human history. The shit has already hit the fan on that one, all we can do now is watch the horror unfold.
I'm coming around to what James Lovelock has suggested; don't worry about it, just enjoy your life style as it is while you can because soon enough that way of living will be over forever and there isn't one single thing anyone can do about it either way.
I still ride an electric bike. It's how I cope with this massive failure of our species. But I harbor no hope whatsoever and I'm raising my children to be about as hard-edged, fast-moving and pragmatic as I can make them. That is the only thing that will save them, the only thing that will save any of us.
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One of the signs of wisdom is to understand, that given what you know, understand, have experienced, that there's no effectual way to fully convey and translate the meaning and content of it, to another's mind, as that is not our 'mission', or responsibility, and nor is it even possible. And nor should it be.
It is however other people's mission and responsibility in life to discover this, themselves. Understanding that, clearly, makes life a whole lot less complicated (removes the saddle weights we imposed on ourselves).
Idealists have no conception of such things, and both science and the arts are jam-packed with absurd idealists, and purists, trying to guide and mould everyone into some conformity, with a paradigm, or stylism, or world-view.
The green-movement and eco-science types are almost psychotic with fundamentalist idealism, and a missionary zeal to convert and pervert the minds of others, and are thus generally the very last to discover the validity and necessity of wisdom (for want of a better word) in life.
It's a tribute to Lovelock that he gets-it.
"One of the signs of wisdom is to understand, that given what you know, understand, have experienced, that there's no effectual way to fully convey and translate the meaning and content of it, to another's mind, as that is not our 'mission', or responsibility, and nor is it even possible. And nor should it be."
We're ALL about communication. Communications is, in its primitive form, about survival. To say that it's not important to communicate to others, which is essentially what you're saying (otherwise you're just grunting), doesn't fly.
Of course you cannot MAKE someone hear/see/believe something. No shit. But, you can influence these things.
And, no, don't try to backpedal and say that you were meaning we can't do a complete brain dump to another person (the CONTEXT is climate change, not entire brain dumps from one individual to another).
It's fundamental to me, so I keep repeating this... it's very easy to understand why the earth cycles between glacial and inter-glacial periods (it's this cycling that "climate change" is part of). It's no more than one big growing season followed by a long tilling period.
One of the problems with those who "think" they are wise is that they often are not, and the tend to sneer at others (which makes them so much like those that they sneer at).
So, in conclusion: those who think that we can stop climate change are idiots; those that think there is no climate change are idiots; those who think that humans cannot convey things such that the conveyee can understand sufficiently what the conveyor presented are idiots.
lol, well actually, you just proved my point, because you patently don't have a clue what I was attempting to convey, it totally passed you by, and you've just gone about your internal echo-chamber's dialogue, having entirely failed to live up to your responsibility and part, in the act of communication.
I won't call you an idiot for it though, because you may discover this for yourself one day, and that would be a tremendous blessing.
ThGY first serious comphresive data came out of the 1956 "International Geophysical Year". People with limited horizens have been denying it ever since. And the truth is; "In the long run, we are all dead." The great grandkids and their decendants will have to fend for themselves.
The Europeans are worried about the probable shift in ocean current cycles. The cycle that includes what we call the "Gulf Stream", keeps northern Europe warm.
And the impact of producing the electric bike, including the rare earth mining and refining? Producing the batteries. And the electricity? Why not ride a non-electric bike if you're worried - otherwise you're just a contributor to the "problem"...
You're right... but then there are the roads, which also require lots of fossil fuels to build and maintain.
It's like this: we're going to run out of fossil fuels before we tip the planet (fingers crossed, it's going to be close!); that's why I gave up my non-motorized bicycle and am burning up lots of diesel in my tractor (I'll test the hypothesis, maybe result in cooking a bunch of climate-change deniers, which will be fun!)
The sky is falling the sky is falling. Drill that fear into your children, moron. Damage them for life.
The sky isn't falling - the oceans are rising - the Global Warming Disciples are relativistic "Chicken Littles".
It's only an issue if the sky isn't falling.
I happen to be in a position to know that it is, so my responsibility as a parent is clear.
My kids will understand what has happened to their world. They will know who to blame. They will be as mentally and spiritually well-armed as I can make them.
Moe doesn't have any children*, so he doesn't give a shit.
If he does, god help us all, as we don't need more genetics such as his! (where's Darwin when you need him?)
Know the sky is falling? Smoked too much?
Seriously, worrying about climate is the least of the issues. Surviving the next ten years and remaining outside the inevitable gulag and avoiding the purges should be your concern. For the record, I believe in as sustainable an approach as possible to resources - waste not want not and all that and grow your own (etc). But you aren't going to find me going loopy over the latest environmental "fad".
'But you aren't going to find me going loopy over the latest environmental "fad".'
No, but you've gone loopy over trying to refute non-fads (as in this thread).
I agree with the rest of your post. Nice to be one of the privileged, no? (2/3 of the world's population lives on $3/day or less, hardly folks that can be luck us and own land [and computers] like us lucky bastards)
I'm what they call a heavy lifter. I can focus clearly on more than one problem at a time.
YMMV
Then wouldn't a horse & cart be more appropriate than an electric bicycle? And why do you own computers etc?
Don't get me wrong, I can't stand the slash & burn mentality of mega corps (and people in general) and I am all for aiming for sustainability but I'm not egotistical enough to say that mankind is going to destroy this planet. Yeah, we're going to affect the usability of bits of it, but what's new? There truly is nothing new under the sun.
Bruce: There is no doubt in the minds of climate scientists. See this:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus.htm
Since your final point is that you doubt there is much we can do about it, it makes your second point relatively inconsequential and the basis for its inclusion invalid.
I'm a skeptic. I agree warming MAY be happening - but I am definitely not certain at all, in fact I doubt very much CO2 has little, if anything, to do with it. I think the warming is really just resumption of a trend which was muted during the "Little Ice Age".
Furthermore, let's just assume it is real. So what? Can anyone prove it will be a horrible outcome? Sure, they have demonized the likely future - but they have no proof that it will be so bad. After all, grape vines used to grow in abundance in England, and hippos swam in the Thames.
So the climate has altered before. Big deal.
"So what? Can anyone prove it will be a horrible outcome?"
There are possibilities and then there are probabilities. The "probabilities" are evident in the ice core samples. There WILL be a next glacial period (and we're toward the end of the inter-glacial period).
"After all, grape vines used to grow in abundance in England, and hippos swam in the Thames."
Was this during a full glacial period (not the "Little Ice Age")?
"they have demonized the likely future" Who is "they?" And, how is the "likely future" demonized? Geez, all the folks who deny there's any problem with fiat accuse one of being a doomer (demonizer). I see no demons...
I've lived long enough to remember when global cooling was the cry to rally behind. Yeah I know it was a long time ago. Anyways, I thought that maybe, could be possible as I knew there had been ice ages that had come and gone.
Then when nature didn't cooperate (or weather as a weapon was still nascent tech) they renamed it to global warming. Then I knew it was complete and utter bullshit and probably just another tool to strip freedoms away. Then when climate change made headlines and wasn't even really questioned by the main stream sheeple, I thought, we're totally fubar.
For every picture of glaciers or ice melting there are others that are not published where both have increased nearly as much if not more. There was a shift in the magnetic poles, who's to say there wasn't another shift whereby ice formed where there previously was none while areas that did have lots began to melt.
http://modernsurvivalblog.com/weather-preparedness/13-billion-cubic-feet...
And MANY people once didn't have cancer, and then they did...
I'm sure that Copernicus didn't get things right at first either, so I guess perhaps we should dismiss him and all that he finally came up with?
"For every picture of glaciers or ice melting there are others that are not published where both have increased nearly as much if not more."
Thanks for relieving this debate over global WARMING. Wait, wasn't it "climate change?", as in "the climate changing such that it would be tougher on humans?"
But, it's a relief to know that we're skipping warming and going right to the glacial period!
Yep, this movie has run before but the True Believer kids are all wee wee'd up over the remake.
According to the conventional scientific wisdom of the day and what we were told in school, the northern US down to the Mid Atlantic region should be under a sheet of ice by now.
And EVERYTHING that you first believed is STILL correct?
Using this logic you will NEVER have cancer! Amazing! Because it didn't occur in the past it won't occur in the future!
LOL... if at first you dont' succeed, STOP [forever]! Yup, that should be ol Lednbrass's moto! And damn proud of it he'd be...
BTW - I believe that the nothern US down to the mid Atlantic region SHOULD be under a sheet of ice. I'm tired of DC and all the fucking spook shops up and down that coast.
If I remember correctly, banning/changing most aerosol cans was a big part of the solution to that global cooling crisis a couple of decades ago. Seems that bringing out the hairspray again would solve global warming.
To be serious for a moment; when I watched a little bit of the Copenhagen conference a few years ago what I saw was much of the world asking where their American money was and they wanted more. That pretty much told me all I needed to know.
"I saw was much of the world asking where their American money was and they wanted more. That pretty much told me all I needed to know."
Apparently you don't need much data/info to "know."
Let me know how that sand is looking...
Control the information. Spin the information. Blind people with pseudo-science and congratulate them as they swallow the hook. Reward them as they immerse themselves deeper into the half-truths and let them draw their own conclusions (whilst leading them). Stroke their ego for drawing the "correct" conclusions. Turn them into crusaders to do your job for you as you withdraw and manipulate from the sidelines.
The tragedy is that these people can't see that they are pawns. "Were you listening to me Neo, or were you looking at the woman in the red dress?".
And they fight you as though you are the enemy for showing them the truth!
This is the case with everything. I'd hope that you don't think that just because you can point this out that doing so makes you think that you really DO know what the facts are (regardless of who is delivering, or why).
"Neo" was a character in a movie that came out of Hollywood. Perhaps the movie was meant to be manipulative? Hm...
“He later worked in the executive branch during the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations”
b) “2001 to 2005, he was a senior advisor to Senator Tom Daschle.”
c) (wants) " to prosecute violations of law, which he believes have taken place in the silver market.”
In this equation a + b does not equal c
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_Chilton
I'll raise your bet 6 beers that absolutely nothing happens here over the LIBOR scandal.
Nadda. One or two press cycles at best...
" Anybody understand this? "
"No"
"Ok, on to white girl kidnapped".
"Yessss, I get to cover it live. "
"No you got the last one"
FISTICUFFS by Douche-Muffins.
All the nonsencial hot air drivel that comes out of Paul Krugmans mouth or it might be his arse, has the same affect of 7 billion hondas!
Bring it on, im freezing.
Outsiders betting against insiders will lose right up until the MAD moment. A Fed governer is a baller and shot caller, why wouldn't he speak confidently from a position of power and influence?
"A Fed governer is a baller and shot caller, why wouldn't he speak confidently from a position of power and influence?"
"Subprime is contained!"
-Bernanke July 2008
The issue is that MF Global was too small to make much of an impact, at least in the short term. However their are more than one MF global's out there that are hiding losses. They'll comeout one at a time, and eventually it will trigger an event. Thats assuming a bigger event (EU breakup or something else big) hits the fan first. Most likely the next big event will happen out of Euroope (a big bank failure that the regulators failed or can't cover up). then we'll see a real game changer.
For an alterantive point of view on Arctic Ice, look here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-...
Yes certainly, everyone follow the fringe lunatic over the cliff.
Seriously. It just doesn't matter now. "Believe" what you want. Have a nice life.
Find a place to live that doesn't burn easily.
Close to 80% of the earth's surface is water. You believe the earth is going to spontaneously combust due to AGW, and in your lifetime?
You really need to get a life or see a mental health professional. You have lost your grip on reality.
Never said any of that. Don't know anyone who has either.
You are damaged. We will go forward without you.
It is truly remarkable how the asshats can create and rationalize utter nonsense out of thin air....
You mean like this?
"I believe it is appropriate to have an 'over-representation' of the facts
on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience."
- Al Gore
Or this?
"The climate crisis is not a political issue, it is a moral and
spiritual challenge to all of humanity. It is also our greatest
opportunity to lift Global Consciousness to a higher level."
- Al Gore, Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech
Or this?
"We are close to a time when all of humankind
will envision a global agenda that encompasses
a kind of Global Marshall Plan to address the
causes of poverty and suffering and
environmental destruction all over the earth."
- Al Gore, Earth in the Balance
Take it up with Al...
He could probably take you to school on the science of AGW.... I doubt you could teach him anything....
Dude are you even a scientist? You display such religious fervour over this that I find it hard to believe that you are. And FWIW Al Gore is a tool. He can't be taught anything because he, like many others, won't listen to anything that he disagrees with/doesn't fit his world view. That isn't a scientific attitude. More cult like.