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Today Is Best Day to Buy Gold - Thackray's 2012 Investor's Guide

GoldCore's picture




 

Today's AM fix was USD 1565.50, EUR 1281.10 and GBP 1011.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1576.50, EUR 1284 and GBP 1012.91 per ounce.

Gold rose by 0.5% in New York yesterday and closed up $8.20 to $1,576.60/oz. Silver rose 0.93% or 25 cents to close at $27.09/oz.

Gold gradually ticked lower in Asian trading and has seen further slight weakness in European trading. Still robust physical demand is supporting gold at these levels and strong support is at the $1,500/oz level. 

The period of seasonal strength for gold bullion has arrived.

Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion from a seasonal perspective is today, July 12.

The summer months normally see seasonal weakness and it is thus a good time to buy on the seasonal dip.

The Global and Mail reports that Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide shows that the optimal time to invest in gold bullion for a seasonal trade is from July 12th to October 9th (see news). 

“The trade has been profitable during 11 of the past 14 periods.”

During the past 25 years, gold bullion has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by a very significant 4.7% during the period.

The Globe and Mail notes that “traditionally, advances in gold during its period of seasonal strength is attributed to precious metal fabricators in India who purchase bullion to make into jewellery for the Indian wedding season that starts in late October. India is the second-biggest consumer of gold jewellery in the world behind China.”

The trend may also be due to more sophisticated investors using gold as a hedge and diversification and increasing allocations to gold during the late summer and early autumn months which traditionally see weakness in stock markets. 

Timing markets is extremely difficult - even for the few successful traders. However, there are clear seasonal patterns that long term physical gold buyers can use to their advantage.

We continue to advocate accumulating physical gold bullion on dips and holding for the long term.

Indeed, part of your allocation to gold should be a permanent holding that you hold as you would a health insurance policy. 

Gold will protect in the event of a geopolitical, macroeconomic, monetary or systemic event.

NEWSWIRE

(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) - Gold Should Find Good Support Around Current Levels
A quick look at some technical analysts' notes from the last 24 hours suggests gold should find good support around current levels. Barclays Capital flags up primary support for spot prices at $1,565/oz and secondary support at $1,550/oz, while ScotiaMocatta expects the metal to hit support at $1,551/1,548/oz. 

(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) –Investors Add to Precious Metal Positions in June
Investors returned to commodity exchange-traded products in June after two months of outflows, with the bulk going into precious metals, according to BlackRock data, as a stuttering U.S. economy encouraged investors to bet on further stimulus moves. 

Commodity ETPs attracted some $2.5 billion in June, the data showed, as investors began building their positions in gold. These gold flows have accelerated in July as economic indicators have continued to deteriorate.

(Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum) – JP Morgan sent out a note outlining their second global gold sector survey. The ranges on the long-range gold price are eye-popping: from $500 an ounce to $10,000.

Outside the wild extremes, JP Morgan notes that gold price expectations have a fat upside tail. Most (23%) responders feel the long-term gold price will be about $2,000/oz. An interesting group representing 9% of those surveyed expect a long-term price of $1,200/oz, while a significant 16% seems to be looking for a gold price above $2,500/oz.

(Bloomberg) -- Indian Gold Demand Was Strongest This Month Yesterday, UBS Says
Physical gold demand from India yesterday was the strongest so far in July, according to UBS AG.

“From now until the buying season starts kicking in towards the end of the quarter, Indian demand is likely to continue its sporadic trend wherein strong days are typically followed by subdued appetite,” London-based analyst Edel Tully wrote in a report today. India’s demandis down by about 30 percent since the start of the year, she said.

While the initial indicators from the start to Indian monsoon season “aren’t so good” for gold demand so far, “there is still time for some optimism to grow,” Tully wrote. Rural farming areas account for about 60 percent of Indian gold- buying, she wrote.

(Bloomberg) -- Standard Bank Picks Gold, Silver, Brent, Aluminum to Rally Most
Standard Bank Plc picked gold, silver, brent oil and aluminum as most likely to rally the most if there is any more easing from the Federal Reserve.

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.


Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg)

NEWS

Get ready for gold bullion's season of strength - The Globe and Mail

Gold slips on uncertain Fed stimulus outlook‎ - CNBC

Gold 22% Rally To Record Seen By Eric Sprott - Bloomberg

Video: Investor Fears: Global Slowdown, More Unemployment - Bloomberg

European shares slip on U.S stimulus view - Reuters

COMMENTARY

The Price of Gold has been Manipulated. This is More Scandalous than Libor - Telegraph Blogs

Gold Report 2012: Erste's Comprehensive Summary - Zero Hedge

All Hell is Going to Break Loose on the Upside in Gold - King World News

Is Debt Destroying the American Dream? - Bloomberg

Krugman and Layard Suffer from Optimism Bias - HSBC

 

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Thu, 07/12/2012 - 21:03 | 2611637 Cycle
Cycle's picture

Gold to $2k! but in 2018 AFTER it goes to $0.5k mid-2015. Gold has followed its price cycle structure about the best of any metal, so I'd be wary of buying now. Though hope springs eternal. http://econocasts.blogspot.com/  My conjecture is deflation followed by inflation due to CB's printing of currency - as opposed to printing debt as is now occurring.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:48 | 2610862 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

This looks like the best fucking call ever ... we'll see tomorrow, but today's rally has been impressive.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 16:46 | 2610964 fuu
fuu's picture

Ok, that really blew my mind. If it's up tomorrow will you be here to post about it?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:29 | 2610791 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

REAL men don't buy gold. REAL men don't expect to buy themselves out of trouble when the MadMax days come. REAL men buy guns and food and fight their way past the hordes of starving zombies.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 20:02 | 2611501 Praetor
Praetor's picture

Fuck off Civis Mundi.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:48 | 2610867 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

REAL men buy guns and food and fight their way past the hordes of starving zombies.

Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

***********

As she loudly cheers from behind the lines-

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 19:18 | 2611388 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

As she loudly cheers from behind the lines-

Squeeky has pretty much confirmed that he's just another anti-gold troll. At least he didn't subject us to his rancid poetry this time.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 18:44 | 2611308 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I expect my woman to chirp and bitch until she gets something to eat.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:42 | 2610642 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

EGOLD NEWS

 

http://www.egoldclaimsprocess.com/Home.aspx

 

anonymous  GOLD  will now be seized and once the gov crawls up your ass, you may get some back.

fare well traitors, ill be happy to get my check. and buy some umm plat or  silver

 oops..  i mean ermm im over metals sirs, im back to buying facebook ;)

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:20 | 2610576 tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

for a slightly less biased view on gold check out this from the big picture blog

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/07/gold-dont-get-carried-away/

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:36 | 2610818 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

 

Gold has been flat to correcting for almost a year after hitting a spot price high of about $1875

*************

That link is pure garbage-

So many holes in it that it would take half the day to point them all out-

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:15 | 2610360 pasttense
pasttense's picture

What a useless article--everyone here is already all in.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:44 | 2610477 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

define "here"

I think there are truly entire communities of people who either cannot or are not allowed to acquire gold and silver.

Employers can do real service by offering physical metals alongside 401k's etc. Provided that the employee keeps a safe and has ownership.

As I have said over and over... if you are in paper... burn it today and use the money to buy Physical. Before it burns you.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:41 | 2610233 AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Best day seems to be 15 of august (chart)

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:21 | 2610162 heavenskrow
heavenskrow's picture

ROFl I used to be a silver/gold bull. But I am a technical analyst first.

Silver and Golds about to tank.  GO DOLLARS AND 30YR TREASURIES!!!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:52 | 2610277 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

ROFl I used to be a silver/gold bull. But I am a technical analyst first.

Silver and Golds about to tank.

**************

Maybe you should turn your chart the right side up then-

Pull up a monthly and you'll see that nearly every bearish triangle in gold so far has broken to the upside-

 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:18 | 2610368 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

and a blithering moron second. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35414.html

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 14:03 | 2610530 DosZap
DosZap's picture

and a blithering moron second. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35414.html

 

 

Thanks for the link, only ONE problem with it.

It is basically saying Aug is going to move either way UP, or Tank. 

Nice read,but look for the dollar to go to at least 84, and if it passes that,90's are in reach.

HOPEFULLY, the metals ignore that, and decouple.........its gone both ways many times.

IF the dollar does go up that far, the economy still tanking, shouts for another QE or like intervention.

Then we all know what happens then.

As for the former Gold Bug, sure it might tank, but for how long?.Considering there is ZERO chance of the EU getting its crap together, or the US.

We have 99% of all Western nations, Bankrupt, and all the banks in the same shape. Sooner or later, Pm's and barter items will all be SO expensive(or of value) only the people who are not sheeple will survive and likely flourish.

All bets off, if Agenda 21 gets ratified and the Senate signs it,then God help us all.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:08 | 2610713 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Project Camelot?

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:10 | 2610339 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

From a psychological point of view, the year long attempt to momo short paper gold has to be getting tiresome.  The worst you can say about gold is that it has been flat.  I think there is a limit to how much bailout gold is available from the government.  All momos are doing here is hoping for a handout that is getting hard to come by.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:19 | 2610371 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

The worst you can say about gold is that it has been flat

*************

True and sentiment hasn't been this bearish since 08-

Shorts are getting pretty confident and comfortable-

People forget that gold was at $35 when this all started-

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:06 | 2610703 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Actually, $20.20

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 15:37 | 2610828 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Very true-

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:28 | 2610195 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

I sure hope you are correct and they tank hard!

 

Back up the truck!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:47 | 2610256 jomama
jomama's picture

me too! this time i've got a fair amount of dry powder, as well. bring it, bitchez!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:22 | 2610385 Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

Hmmmmm...looks like Sprott is gettin all “PHYSICAL!  PHYSICAL!” on you bitchez again.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/sprott-announces-230-million-follow-on-for-...

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:09 | 2610125 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I'll stack more silver. No Gold just yet.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 11:49 | 2610057 sudzee
sudzee's picture

FED will whitewash LIEborgate tomorrow as a laudable act, banks stock will soar and EUR/US levitates on short covering. I'm backing up the trike for a bit of the yellow stuff this aft.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:40 | 2610459 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Right:  "We totally approve of the bankster lying and price rigging if necessary; and of course it's necessary if it hides the truth of bank risk."

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 11:42 | 2610041 sunnydays
sunnydays's picture

I hope today is the bottom then. 

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 11:51 | 2610063 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Why care what the dollar denominated price is?  The dollar is an instrument of the finance class to obstruct real value.

Invest in real money:

BUY SILVER!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 19:35 | 2611432 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

"The Finance Class"  Thats the term we should use.  Nice one. Wheres the link to urban dictionary?...

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:16 | 2610120 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Why care what the dollar denominated price is?

ummm, because I pay in dollars for gold.  I really can't fathom the scenario where people would actually trade gold or silver for goods on the street.  I own it for other reasons.  When things collapse people trade goods or they keep using the existing supply of local currency.  Zimbabwe did start using gold for some transactions, but Somalia for example just uses the fiat money printed by the goverment before they went bust.  They are limited in supply thus valuable. Never heard of silver being used after any collapse, but would be interested to hear of any examples.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:09 | 2610342 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

"I really can't fathom the scenario where people would actually trade gold or silver for goods on the street."

Uh... you weren't alive in the early 1960's then. We traded with silver all the time!

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:56 | 2610296 William113
William113's picture

I just traded Silver for a 2012 BMW. Fathom bitch.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:15 | 2610354 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

you should have at least waited a couple of months. you could have had two beamers for whatever that's worth.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35414.html

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:44 | 2610481 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

2 Bimmers. There, fixed it for you.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:24 | 2610178 12ToothAssassin
12ToothAssassin's picture

EVERY day is the best day to buy PMs.

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 12:57 | 2610300 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

Gold can only be bought today.  Good news: it's always today.  

Thu, 07/12/2012 - 13:58 | 2610516 Strider52
Strider52's picture

That reminds me of a sign I saw in an Ireland Pub: Free Beer Tomorrow.

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