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Radiation On West Coast of North America Could End Up Being 10 Times HIGHER than in Japan
We've extensively documented the fact that ocean currents bring Japanese radiation to the West Coast of North America, and that - rather than adequate ocean dilution - there could be “pockets” and “streams” of highly-concentrated radiation.
Joke F Lübbecke of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and 3 scientists from the GEOMAR Research Center for Marine Geosciences poured tracer dye into coastal waters off of Fukushima, and monitored its progress as it traveled to the West Coast of North America, to find out what might really happen.
They have revealed their results in a new paper published by journal Environmental Research Letters.
The paper shows that the West Coast of North American could end up with 10 times more radioactive cesium 137 than the coastal waters off of Japan itself.
How could radiation levels be lower closer to the source of contamination: Fukushima?
Because the currents are swift off of the Eastern coast of Japan, and quickly move the contaminated water away.
The paper explains:
In the following years, the tracer cloud continuously expands laterally, with maximum concentrations in its central part heading east. While the northern portion is gradually invading the Bering Sea, the main tracer patch reaches the coastal waters of North America after 5–6 years, with maximum relative concentrations ( > 1 × 10−4) covering a broad swath of the eastern North Pacific between Vancouver Island and Baja California. Simultaneously some fraction of the southern rim of the tracer cloud becomes entrained in the North Equatorial Current (NEC), resulting in a westward extending wedge around 20°N that skirts the northern shores of the Hawaiian Archipelago. After 10 years the concentrations become nearly homogeneous over the whole Pacific, with higher values in the east, extending along the North American coast with a maximum (~1 × 10−4) off Baja California. The southern portion of the tracer cloud is carried westward by the NEC across the subtropical Pacific, leading to increasing concentrations in the Kuroshio regime again.
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With caution given to the various idealizations (unknown actual oceanic state during release, unknown release area, no biological effects included, see section 3.4), the following conclusions may be drawn. (i) Dilution due to swift horizontal and vertical dispersion in the vicinity of the energetic Kuroshio regime leads to a rapid decrease of radioactivity levels during the first 2 years, with a decline of near-surface peak concentrations to values around 10 Bq m−3 (based on a total input of 10 PBq). The strong lateral dispersion, related to the vigorous eddy fields in the mid-latitude western Pacific, appears significantly under-estimated in the non-eddying (0.5°) model version. (ii) The subsequent pace of dilution is strongly reduced, owing to the eastward advection of the main tracer cloud towards the much less energetic areas of the central and eastern North Pacific. (iii) The magnitude of additional peak radioactivity should drop to values comparable to the pre-Fukushima levels after 6–9 years (i.e. total peak concentrations would then have declined below twice pre-Fukushima levels). (iv) By then the tracer cloud will span almost the entire North Pacific, with peak concentrations off the North American coast an order-of-magnitude higher than in the western Pacific.
"Order-of-magnitude" is a scientific term which means 10 times higher. The "Western Pacific" means Japan's East Coast.
Here are the important graphics from the paper:
Figure 4. Decadal evolution of relative surface tracer concentration in the 0.1°-model simulation; boxes in (d) indicate regions for which the temporal evolution is computed in figure 7; contour lines mark power of 10 intervals.
Postscript: Prussian Blue may be used to treat cesium poisoning. But don't take any Prussian Blue before consulting with a qualified healthcare professional. Antioxidants may also help reduce damage from low-level radiation.
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There will be so much electricity, we won't even bother with a meter on your house ... I heard that before, somewhere.
I hate to rain on this parade but this statement: "
Radiation On West Coast of North America Could End Up Being 10 Times HIGHER than in Japanis ludicrus. Physics doesn't work this way - entropy increases. Without some artificial means of concentration a substance that diffuses from a source must always be more dilute that at the source. If, indeed, some natural force caused the radiation to concentrate then I would use that force to concentrate gold or heat my coffee. Lets be serious.
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That's not what the paper was saying. It said that after ten years or so, the radiation would be diluted in both places. Due to the faster moving ocean currents off of Japan, the concentration of radioactive cesium would be lower than the concentration off the west coast of North America.
The radiation isn't concentrating, it's diluting in both places. It will be more diluted (by an order of magnitude) off of Japan.
Just trying to help.
Good point but ... currents complete loops. If the source is more concentrated on the West Coast then it will diffuse back to Japan. If the Cesium were just surface contamination I would believe it. It's volume contamination and Cesium is highly active in the biosphere. It looks like diffusion to me.
Indeed, diffusion is driven by concentration gradiants (true for both chemicals and temperature) so higher concentrations themselves drive and magnify the diffusion/dilution process. In the absence of an external concentration gradient like the g-force used in a centrifuge, its simply not possible to have higher concentrations as a function of time at either the original source or especially at larger distances from that source. As you state, entropy always wins, just as energy is also always conserved ruling out perpertual motion machines, for example. These laws are so fundamental they are never violated, even at the event horizon of a black hole, much less the simple earth/ocean system. There's some important caveat missing from this article and the title is quite misleading. Also fundamental is the fact that any radiation, light, electrons, atoms, molecules etc, drops off as the inverse square of its distance from its source. So, 10x the distance away, only 1/100 of the intensity. Keep these funcamental principles in mind when reading articles like this one.
Without some artificial means of concentration a substance that diffuses from a source (USA) must always be more dilute that at the source (Japan).
That's right. In 10 years the radioactive pollution off California will be more diluted than it is now off Japan. So nothing to worry about. (sarc)
It's especially important to remember that radioactive rain does not come from clouds that pick up moisture from the ocean, so for sure all westcoastians are perfectly safe and should go back to watching the pretend election coverage on TV immediately and never read anything about radiation ever again
sarc off
"...could end up with 10 times more radioactive cesium 137..."
They're talking quantity not quality.
Will anyone notice the mutants in California?
My thought too. Can't add to that.
Thanks, I needed some more bad news /sarc
I avoid the West Coast and any food from there (as well as Japan). Too many other safer options.
It will be interesting to follow the leukemia (and other cancer) rates there over the next 20 years. Hopefully it will not be too much higher. Fortuntely. "tis only a tiny leak" according to the TEPCO official.
safer seafood options? such as GOM shellfish? HAH
CalPERS should hold Beach Party Days in the hopes that a little cancer might cut some of those benefit costs.
Don't worry it can't go much higher. The cancer rate has already gone from one in 100 in the late 1800s to 1 in 3 so how much higher can it go?
And yet life expectancy is so much higher...
1:1 or 100% of the population....
I've heard that gold makes and excellent radiation shield.
Lead and copper too.
Clearly we need to build a lot more new nuclear power plants as fast as we can so that the entire earth can enjoy this new modern radioactive lifestyle.
sarc off
Fuck.
Radiation On the West Coast of North America "COULD" End up Being 10 Times Lower TOO. Or anything could anything, anywhere. Lets get probabilities, and stop with the could. I see so much of that word, and people still thing it means "will".
indeed, "could" appears 3 times...
...that is a "fact"
From how I read the study, it does not seem to account for the continuing, and quite possibly increasing, releases. Reaching homogeneity in 6-9 years of the initial release. There would be no homogeneity if the releases continue, only of there was a one time release like their dye.
"study"
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"They have revealed their results in a new paper published by journal Environmental Research Letters."
Model simulations on the long-term dispersal of 137Cs released into the Pacific Ocean off Fukushima
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034004/article?v_showaffiliation...
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/3/034004/pdf/1748-9326_7_3_034004.pdf