Dead and Deader

ilene's picture

Dead and Deader

Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World is sounding a little bearish.

Excerpt from Stock World Weekly

Redrum, redrum, REDRUM!

OK, if you haven’t seen “The Shining” that may not make sense but the short story is Shelly Duval should have listened to that crazy kid and gotten the Hell out of that house. That’s how I felt about the markets after reading Wednesday’s Beige Book.

Hsac, hsac, HSAC!!!—would be more accurate (and if you can’t figure that out, perhaps you should stick to Cramer or some simpler form of financial analysis). In Wednesday morning’s post, I point- ed out that Hugh Hendry, one of the only analysts I actually respect, had said “Bad things are going to happen and I still think the closest analogy is the 1930s” and we discussed the massive drought in the US and how conditions are, indeed moving towards what we did have in the 1930s—from the record income disparity to the rising unemployment to the destabilization in Europe... No wonder I titled Thursday’s post “Déjà Vu All Over Again.”

It’s a shame that we waited all this time with our cash only to finally see opportunities on the short side but we need to play the cards we are dealt. Yes, there are many companies that do seem cheap—just as there were many companies that seemed cheap in July of 2008, when we slipped from 14,000 in October 2007 to 11,000 on the Dow and seemed to find a bottom. In October of 2008, things seemed even cheaper as we held that 8,000 line—who knew we had another 20% to fall after that and wouldn’t see 8,000 again until the following April?

Our only bullish premise since we bought at the June bottom was that we would get some form of stimulus to move the markets higher. We were not deluded into thinking things were actually fixed, nor do we think that the stimulus (if it ever comes) will actually fix anything but you can inject a few hundred cc’s of adrenaline into a guy who’s pretty much dead and still get a reaction—that’s all we’re expecting—just a little reaction to some additional stimulus.

But what if the stimulus doesn’t come? Then all you have is that economy that’s pretty much dead and getting deader every day. Even worse, all of the economy’s friends and neighbors are dropping like flies and not only does Uncle China seem unwilling or unable to give us a transfusion but he’s starting to look like he may be about to keel over as well.

Riots, chaos, mayhem—these are not the earmarks of a contented society. To watch the financial news all day is to miss out on what’s really going on in the World, which is inhabited by the bottom 99% and the bottom 90% of that group are in dire straits indeed. 

For a free trial to Stock World Weekly, click here. 

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
blueridgeviews's picture

All you need is a central bank with unlimited printing abilities in the largest economy to prop up the markets.  A few large financial institutions to help doesn't hurt either. So yes, the market CAN go up from here.

ebworthen's picture

You know what's cheap?  Lady Liberty.

She's being sold on every corner by bankers and politicians; beaten over the head, children kidnapped, and pimped out.

I hear labor and housing are pretty cheap for some reason, if you have cash.

AgShaman's picture

This movie was tops.

The market, among other things, is about to get it's head bashed the fvck in.

Good Day

Divine Wind's picture


"To watch the financial news all day is to miss out on what’s really going on in the World, which is inhabited by the bottom 99% and the bottom 90% of that group are in dire straits indeed."


This line is pretty powerful.

Long PMs : Au, Ag, Pb



new game's picture

ah, 19th nervous breakdown


let it bleed - all time fav; i'm a monkey (as fist goes through ceiling-irrational exuberance)




The Monkey's picture

We know the script. Crude, soft commodities, silver and gold. Set your stops carefully, because the bigger the bubble blows, the harder it will fall.

disabledvet's picture

No stimulus? Hahahahahaha! That's a good one. Hugh Hendry is pleasant to listen when pondering times of yore and bygone days...but the best analyst I've found in that neck of the woods is called the Rolling Stones. From Gimme Shelter to Jumpin' Jack Flash there's no shortage of "there...there." unless you're somehow continuing with your ridiculous tripe of "the Federal Government has a secret plan for austerity." is that where you STILL are at...Phil's World?

q99x2's picture

That is the trouble with globalism. Once you rob everyone around the world there is nobody left to rob.

Maybe they'll start a few wars to see if there's anything left in the rebuilding theory of economic recovery.

new game's picture

oh wait, eminent domain next venue of back door money, all for the good of society...

somehow this goes on and on; along as there is new money to be created there will new ways to get it.

AnAnonymous's picture

More with US citizenism.

US citizenism has had a global destiny since the declaration of Independence in which US citizens hijacked humanity through the natural rights theory.

US citizenism is as global as humanity is.

And there are still people left to rob: people who have benefited the most from the long robbery streak by US citizens: namely, the US citizen middle class.

TheFourthStooge-ing's picture


US citizenism is as global as humanity is.

Greetings, fellow US citizenism citizen. How are the crops this year on your extortion farm? The drought isn't causing you any problems, is it?

DeadFred's picture

LOL, this comes from my favorite "Bullish" source. My idea of where the market is headed and Phil's are often different but I can't remember the last time I was right and he wasn't. Get ready for exciting times.

Getting Old Sucks's picture

Eat, drink and be merry..........

phat ho's picture

Let the games begin.... hail caesar

ilene's picture

Okay, does anyone know what "Hsac, hsac, HSAC!!!" is?  (Or is it back to Cramer for me?) 

AbelCatalyst's picture

Reference to the Shining - redrum spelled backwards is murder... I thought that was a little funny... Usually not a Phil fan - when that dude goes dark something is going on...

TraderTimm's picture

Honestly, I just want to get all of this bullshit over with.

It has been a tiring journey.

diesheepledie's picture

People have been saying that every day since the beginning of history. But sorry. It ain't going to collapse! It is more of a painful crumbling action that takes many decades, possibly even centuries for an empire of this size.

Happens all the time. We are just on a nice downward inflection point so we have a slightly better few of the abyss than previous decades. But no rapid collapse. As any student of history can tell you, that's not how this works. This is a big one, so it will take a while. 

lasvegaspersona's picture

die s die

actually there could be a specific " I'll never forget where I was at that moment" moment. At some point the dollar will loose could come slowly as in theWeimar...but it could be announced on the evening in: "We interrupt tonights news for a special emergency message from the President". Who knows, maybe this time it will be timed so as not to conflict with (a) Bonanza (rerun.)

jim249's picture

Just biding my time. waiting,waiting...........

oklaboy's picture

lots of points of contention on the horizon, can"t wait for the shit to hit the fan

lasvegaspersona's picture

ok boy

lots of points of contention on the horizon, I CAN WAIT AND WAIT AND WAIT  for the shit to hit the fan

this coming event(s) is not going to be near as much fun as some here believe it will be... and once IT comes...IT is likely to stay ...for a long time...

otto skorzeny's picture

"Send lawyers,guns and money-the shit has hit the fan"-W. Zevon

WmMcK's picture

"If I had a rocket launcher, I would not hesiate." - W. Zevon

seabiscuit's picture

Bruce Cockburn actually."If I had a rocket launcher, I'd make somebody pay". Good shit!

seabiscuit's picture

Bruce Cockburn actually."If I had a rocket launcher, I'd make somebody pay". Good shit!

engineertheeconomy's picture

Don't look up now, you don't want it to splat in yer eyeballz

That's why I never leave the house without my tinfoil cap and rubber boots

Hulk's picture

Lions and Tigers and Bears, oh my !!!

engineertheeconomy's picture

Stock market going up in Devalued Dollars means that it's going doowwwn in value fast


have fun with your mountain of Zimbabwe like Dollars, I'm lugging Gold bricks and getting as far away from the Zombie types as I can, as soon as I can

Time is running short, don't let the Zombies eat you for your worthless paper

AnAnonymous's picture

The demise of Zimbabwean dollar came when outsiders demanded to be paid in something else than ZD for their goods.

Wont happen that soon for the US as the military is there to back up the extortion/farming scheme.

Which is the one that enables you to hoard gold bricks in exchange of fiat.

LowProfile's picture

Guess you missed the growing list of countries agreeing to settle trades w/o using USD...