The Canadian Real Estate Bubble?
Below is an email that I recieved from a reader:
RIO Canada is one of the biggest reit's in Canada I know some of there management and from what I can see they are buying property's left right and center that are in bad locations and are doomed to negative cap rates and are destine to fail. I think they would be a great REIT company here in Canada to analyze as a short candidate. As you may know the residential and commercial property bubble here in Canada has hit levels never seen in America or any where else in the world. The potential for gain in shorting these company's with the most exposure to down turn risk would be greater then any where else as they are so over valued and carry a much greater risk then company's involved in the property market any where else in the world. It would be great if you and your wonderful analyst team could analyze these Canadian property company's. The down turn is already on the way in Canada with Vancouver correct already 17 % and Toronto having the most condos being built in the world right now. I literally see cranes ever where with 142 condos projected to come on to the already oversupplied market by 2014. I own business here and know the real economy has stagnated and declined plain and simple people are becoming "broke" or the harsh times are starting to hit them.Canada's economy can not support the property bubble her and the collapse will be mush greater then what will come or already has come in the United States. With my stores and there retail sales falling already by 50-60 percent year over year since 2008. I speak with many tenants who own business who are struggling to pay there rents and some have not made a profit in almost a year the "thresh hold" has be reached people are either going to walk away or renegotiate there leases heavily. Yet these REIT continue to buy property's hand over fist paying outrages price with negative cap rates and outstanding leverage. The biggest residential and commercial property bubble will fall here in Canada and I thought I should bring it to your attention Reggie if it wasn't already because you do a great job of simply but completely analyzing a company and debunking there fallacies. Thank you for your time.
We looked into Rio Canada for BoomBustBlog subscribers, and this is what we found.
All paying subscribers: Rio Canada Analysis
Professional and institutional subscribers can download a deeper dive: Rio Canada Analysis Back-up data