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More "Source" Input On Coming Precious Metals Price Explosions
Bill Murphy
Chairman Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
August 12 - Gold $1619.70 – Silver $28.06
More "Source" Input On Coming Precious Metals Price Explosions
Over the past month+ I have been pounding the table that based on information from three extremely informed sources the prices of gold and silver would begin their launches to much higher prices in August … a launch that would lead to all-time highs in both precious metals and well beyond.
The reason for this Mini-Midas is that I just received some new input, which supports what my original sources have been telling us for some time. It is from someone I have known for a long while and is of the same caliber as my other sources in terms of reliability. When you have traded commodities and stocks as long as I have, and get to be my age, it is fairly easy to sort that all out … and what to run with.
Here it is … short, sweet, and maybe VERY important:
August 10, 2012
The METALS
I have spoken before about my contact on the Board of Trade who trades mainly the metals and is in touch with New York minute by minute. He has been saying for several weeks that the metals would have one more big drop (1525-1550) before they really took off. Today he changed his mind. They saw heavy covering of shorts in Chicago and New York. This should show in next week’s COT. They see an explosion of huge proportions and are adding four more floor traders as they see August as a record month for them. He closed by saying "We could see a 100% increase in 90 days." Tie this in with other things that we have read and heard. Golden regards
Peter
If what Peter sends us pans out anywhere close to what he has been told, this Mini-Midas is more than well worth the read. What fascinates me is that this new input confirms what my other three sources have been saying. Now we wait to see how this plays out in the three weeks of trading left ahead in August.
In addition, as you well know by now, it has come to my attention from all of my original contacts that JP Morgan has a big problem with their silver short position and that this problem will reveal itself in a public way in the near future…
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Only fools and weak hands 'capitulate' on their gold holdings.
Holding gold is a generational practice. This is well understood in many parts of the world, just not in most of the West.
Most Western 'investors' look for get rich quick schemes and think little of preserving capital to pass on within their families.
...and, it isn't the West that has built a floor under gold above $1,500, but the East. I am unconcerned about 'dollar support for gold or euro support for gold'... I am concerned for continued SE Asian/Indian/Mid East and Russian support.
We have not seen substantial dollar or euro support for gold... yet.
you, the taxi driver, the pretzel vendor, and the guy asking for change all know metal prices are going to jump. hmmm, excuse me for being a bit of a skeptic.
But not the shoeshine boy?!
fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/shoeshine-boy.html
Follow the yellow brick road...
Gold is beautiful, gold is good. Same with Silver!
I recently purchased this 1/2 oz. Gold coin that caught my eye at the LCS. A Dolly Madison First Spouse .9999 Proof Gold coin. The first proof gold I've ever bought. Very beautiful.
Apparently it's a U.S. Government minted coin that has a $10 denomination. The 1/2 oz. Gold American Eagle has a $25 denomination. Not that those 'dollar' denominations really mean anything to me, just curious, what's up with that? Lol.
Some of the commemorative coins weigh the same and are denominated the same as the $5 and $10 gold pieces that circulated in the olden days. Is the coin you purchased a true half ounce or is it .48 ounces total gold content?
That "dollar" amount is what the government will provide in fiat to those turning-in their gold. Fair value ?
Not really. The dollar used to be defined as a specific amount of gold or of silver. A ten dollar bill was simply a receipt for .48 oz of gold. You could freely trade one for the other. Now there is no direct link between the dollar and gold so the denominations of the coins are irrelevant.
My impression has always been that it was a sick joke.
A dollar is defined as being .77 ounces of silver by US law. It just happens to be one of those laws that are too quaint for the government to follow these days.
that's what dollars should be worth without the printing LOL.
I hear you Reptil. Gold used to be $20/oz., so the First Spouse 1/2 oz. Gold coin should be $10 without all that printing!
But curiously, the 1/2 oz. American Gold Eagle is denominated as $25, unlike the First Spouse coin is at $10. A little odd. But of course I don't know what the Central Bankers and Planners were thinking when they came up with this stuff phony dollar denomination stuff anyway.
everyone knows women make less in the marketplace.
PMs usually move higher in the Fall. Faster printing would make them respond accordingly.
If it took off that much, I am continuing to stack silver.
It really does not matter much now what the prices do as long you have physical Eagles or Bullion in your hands at home.
guess i'll have to find
another hollow tree
to fill up ..
GREAT !! finally somebody mentions Alexco......talk about counterintuitive, why is this stock trading below $4..dropping from $9... Im buying more...but it certianly is a huge WTF...lead/zinc....SILVER
http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/sprott-gold-...
"Peter sends us pans out"
Freudian slip? Becasue it sure sounds like a fairy tale.
Edit
oops not quick enough with that.
Obama and Bernanke are the Fairy Tale. The Grimm fairy tale where everyone ends up terroized and dead.
Hans Muslim Andersen?
It's just a joke, people!
yawn.
There are so many inconsistencies and outright unsubstantiated bullshitisms in Murphy's note to know where to begin re criticizing it. Let's let most of it ride and just zero in on his concluding sentence: ............."as you well know by now.............." Yes, Bill as we well know JPM inherited its silver position from Bear Stearns. The big commercial short in the silver market was and is Bear's client.
One of these days Murphy, Butler and their ilk will shit in their hats when they learn that the short is China holder of hundreds of millions, if not in excess of a billion, ounces.
hey, he got secret contacts for top-secret infomation. Shortcuts are just fine
why would china short silver to hedge its possession of the hard metal. They already have the other side of that trade - its called long $ bonds.
One of these days Murphy, Butler and their ilk will shit in their hats when they learn that the short is China holder of hundreds of millions, if not in excess of a billion, ounces.
Talk about your unconfirmed sources.
Why stop at a billion. Why not a trillion Chinese ounces, or a quadrillion? Last I heard mining silver was a little tougher than digitizing new dollars.
almost one per citizen....
Gold Bitchez!
More signs that the market is mispricing risk in the current environment.
This works both ways. To see large banks trimming back on loan loss provisions, and employing accounting tricks to mark up their 'earnings' is one example. We have been hearing about a recovery now for years, going back to the days when green shoots were frequently discussed by the market shills.
No such recovery has ever happened.
It was all a mirage - smoke and mirrors to suck in the clueless and the gullible.
Meanwhile big stories have started to surface on how the banks have manipulated interest rates and plunged further into derivative exposure, while hiding the true extent of their losses using mark-to-fantasy accounting. Just as it was before the collapse in 2008, the entire banking sector appears leveraged to massive risk at all levels, and yet the stocks as a group seem to be holding up fairly well.
Mispricing of risk? You bet...
On the flipside to this, consider the mining stocks. Yes, earnings this latest quarter were mostly lower for the producing miners large and small. Well excuse me, but just WTF were investors expecting? Is it news to anyone that the metals have all corrected sharply from their highs of last year? Should it come as a surprise to anyone that was not living under a rock that inflationary pressures remain high, as labor and energy costs continue to rise?
I am not shocked that operating margins have been reduced for most of the miners and therefore even those companies that were successful to increase production year-over-year have not been able to show stronger profits. With a few exceptions, the earnings season has been a disappointment.
But here is where the mispricing comes into play. The market is supposed to be forward looking. Last year, when the mining stocks were crushed even as the metals were still rising, analysts declared that it was the market indicating that the metals were overdue for correction. I would say both the stocks and the metals overshot to the downside on this move, but whatever the case, the fact remains that the correction has been ongoing much longer than is typical even for this volatile sector, and there are many signs that a stable base has been established to support the next phase. So where are the 'forward looking' market participants now? The stocks should be pricing this recovery in.
This month, among a number of disappointing financial reports, Alexco Resources came out with weak results and the stock has been crushed by more than 30% to the downside from the heavily discounted values that the shares had already been trading at. Positive forward guidance is ignored. The strong balance sheet is ignored. Long term fundamentals are ignored. This is the reality for many good producing miners however.
I have been buying up shares of Alexco, and several others. I think we are in the midst of a turnaround that has been overlooked by the shell-shocked resource investors. The sentiment levels have been low for many months but now we are indeed seeing concrete signs of a recovery and it seems no one is paying attention.
Lets talk about risk... There is a long list of solid mining companies that are sitting on strong balance sheets flush with cash. This after many of them have invested heavily in proving up new resources, and building up expansion in their operations. I can point to literally dozens of companies that are in much stronger shape today than they were a couple of years ago when these companies had much higher market caps. Is risk being properly priced today? Not even close. Unless people think that a complete collapse is coming, in which case we will all be living like the Flintstones in caves.
It is at times like this - when the entire market is behind the curve - that big profits are on the table.
Where there are many good junior explorers that are trading for close to the cash they have on the balance sheet, that is a pretty obvious buy signal. When the front page story on a major newspaper is bearish to the extreme, that is a good buy signal. I do not know if the metals will stay weak for a few more weeks or months before turning higher, but I am very confident they will do so. This is one of those classic pennies to the downside / dollars to the upside inflection points that so rarely come up in a legitimate market.
Think of the big short on the financials just before the collapse in 2008. I am reminded of how quickly fortunes were made in 2003 when the speculative cycle kicked in for the mining sector. It seems like we have a classic situation at hand today where a big reversal is about to happen and hardly anyone is calling for it.
When the metals recover the earnings power for the most efficient miners is going to rocket to the upside. The sector remains heavily exposed to shorts and there will be steady buying to close those positions even as I expect a faster pace to consolidation in the months ahead as stranded juniors are taken out. The sharks are already circling. There are many factors that can crank up the speculative action very quickly. I suspect some people will be left behind and that will just add even further fuel to the rally as specs start hitting the offer to play catch up once the rebound is obvious. It is coming. The more that I see long time investors giving up and turning bearish, and the more I see good quality companies trading 60% off their previous highs, I am more confident that we are going to see the mother of all rallies.
This is not supposed to be a hand-holding session.
It represents one man's opinion and I have invested my money accordingly.
Others may be thinking this is still the short opportunity of a lifetime. I am pointing out that we appear to be at one of those definitive moments where almost all of the passengers are standing on the same side of the boat.
Buckle up boys! Things will change quickly.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
Still seeing the same fundamentals here. I've made this argument numerous times already.
Excellent observations DP...
"More signs that the market is mispricing risk in the current environment."
There are no unmanipulated markets at present therefore there are no price discovery mechanisms at work. We have no certain way to know what interest rate on ten year T paper would be if the Fed/Treasury were not up to their arm pits in bond mkts... same goes for PMs, equities, commercial paper, RE, etc.
Now it's all by guess and by golly and wild ass gusses. The only price discovery mechanisms that I see at work are at local farmers and flea mkts and some retail outlets.
PMs are a way to ride out the storms that are coming. Good luck to those holding paper when tshtf.
"If what Peter sends us pans out anywhere close to what he has been told, this Mini-Midas is more than well worth the read."
Read: Peter...Pan
David, seriously... is that some sort of subconscious slip?
As long as Au price (paper and phys) is enforced by PuO2 on the periodic chart, all our well reasoned suppositions remain vacuous.
Hook Line and Sphincter (!) j
Murph could be correct - the huge amount of short covering into the last COT Report was unprecedented. Add the fact that August is the beginning of the seasonality gold trade with the Indian Wedding Season and the restocking by the Italian Jewellery trade and you have some fairly compelling drivers.
Why don't all you snapperheads that are trashing this post go back to your "Fast Money" nickel and dime trades on Faceberg before you dis the guy that has been right as rain on gold since 1998?
nice avatar
All that short covering caused what, a couple percent change? I'd love for this stuff to be true but in a market this manipulated watch out for the triple reverse whamo trap.
But wouldn't it delightful if the JPM prediction comes true? I'd settle for that and a much smaller PM move.
Still waiting for you to explain your bashing of the silver manipulation crowd awhile back.
You do understand GATA is front and center on that issue don't you?
...because inside knowledge like this does not get published
We shall judge future credibility on this "prediction". I'd settle for a 25% rise in the metals, but, hey nobody follows my prognostications. Whom do I believe, Bill Murphy or the elevator operator / shoe-shine boy? Decisions, decisions....
I had no plans to sell anyhow, so this is useless info for me. Don't plan any boating or canoe excursions either.
Mr Racoon, you should always believe the one who sees it in their rear view mirror... that is... the shoe shine boy!
Incidentally, did you know that racoons have a 'penis bone'? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baculum
Wish I had one these days!
Hook Line and Sphincter (!)j
I am very familiar with my penis and there have been times (especially when I was much younger) that it felt like it had a bone.
Honest.
Just sayin'
Lucky Racoons.
Whatchu thinkin', Rocky?
Raccoon bones... I'm not sure about that. Perhaps osteoporosis has set in at my advanced age.
Sounds nice, but...., well really too many buts to mention.
And a really easy way to lose credibility, Bill.
I guess we'll see how credible his sources are (and by extension, whether to listen to him and his sources in the future). I hand it to him for making a bold prediction in a public forum.
IOTW, the IranWar begins in less than 90 days...prolly less than 30. Oil spikes and stays spiked...dollar collapses, PM prices go asymptotic. I just want time for one more little buy.
Don't get all worked up. The CIA is sending our boys into IRAN as we speak to support and supply their Occupy Movement with troops, weapons and ammunition. Won't be much of a War, we'll just call it rebels overthrowing the Government. Within days the MSM will be on to the next sensationalized news story and the American Public will be in Walmart buying a bunch of useless shit they don't need. Irananians will be forced to stop using their Silver Durham metal coins and take out student loans in Paper Dollars with interest so that they become debt slaves for eternity. That will keep us afloat until we can assist some other Terrorist Occupy Demonstrators destroy the next country.
That was the 1953 game plan and I don't foresee a repeat of that success (sic).
That was a 100% move in 3 weeks?? That is pure, unadulterated bullshit. That would be nearly 100 bucks a day without a decline. If that happens, I will eat shit and bark at the moon. Where do they find these droolers?
90 days does not equal 3 weeks
The quote was a bit ambiguous but it was prefaced by him saying they were increasing staff by 4 traders so perhaps the 100% could be volume of trades. And he said could as well. So they "could" see a doubling of their sales, making August a "record month" for them, not a move to $3200/oz.