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The Fourth Turning - Finally

Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture




 

After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry 0812-fourth that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.

I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.

Strauss and Howe write:

Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:

+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;

+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;

+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;

+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.

 

As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):

 

The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:

+ The American High (1946-1964);

+ The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);

+ The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);

+ The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)

If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:

+ The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);

+ The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);

+ The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);

+ The Artist archetype is being born now

I'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.

Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!

I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:

+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood

+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.

+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.

+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order

Here again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:

Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:

+ A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.

+ An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.

As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically -  "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):

Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

+ Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)

+ Social distress....

+ Cultural distress......

+ Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos

+ Ecological distress....

+ Political distress....

+ Military distress.......

This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.

 

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Mon, 08/13/2012 - 23:31 | 2702955 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

I have NOT read the book and certainly do not plan to read it.  If there's anything that grates my nerves is some "guru" proclaiming to have found THE answer to the way our civilization evolves and devolves over a defined period.  Bullshit! 

Simply put, history has at least taught us that empires ALWAYS rise, peak and fall.  That is human nature and it's really that simple.  Anyone else who comes up with new, complex terminology and convoluted logic to explain the same thing is really full of shit, and they know it. 

Here, let's try to simplify this to its simplest expression: people want to believe that some magnanimous, wonderful, god-like leader has finally arrived to save us all from tyranny and oppression, and that for the first time EVER, we have actually found a genuine person who actually cares more about us than about himself.  Inevitably, people get sucked into believing that THIS TIME it's for real.  Sure enough, people then realize that they got sodomized once again by some magnificent con artist.  They get really pissed off, so they look for another saviour.  Then they think they've found one.  And once again, they get fucked through every hole in their body... and history thus repeats itself over and over, ad infinitum.  There you go, I hope everyone enjoyed my book... one paragraph, free of charge.  Your're welcome.  :-) 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 22:47 | 2702900 alfbell
alfbell's picture

Oh poop! There are no human cycles or social cycles.  You can read cycles into anything just like you can do with statistics and their manipulation. Humanity isn't a weather cycle or seasonal cycle. There is change and arbitrariness and surprise. Thing are always changing and more variables occur as technology moves forward. No one can predict the future accurately. Ok read the book but what is it going to do for you? Could you spend your time more constructively? Me thinks so.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 22:19 | 2702845 nah
nah's picture

what happened to the 5th season

.

get back to work bitchez

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 21:11 | 2702646 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

Your presence here Mr. Knight Slope can mean only a couple or three things

 

The Durden family sold  ZH (in whole or in part) to Slob

The readership of ZH has deteiorated to the likes of nummy and his special friends

You are an infomercial

 

all the very best

 

song wang

 

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 18:50 | 2702287 Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

Wait, history RHYMES!?  Shocked!  Absolutely shocked! 

Tim, I like you.  From your site, writings, etc., you seem like a smart, intelligent guy.  But really.  Writing a book based on the premise of generational repetition of human behavior and events with vague new words and a thesaurus is about the easiest form historical curve fitting there is.  The authors may or may not have been well aware of the demographics that are the reality driving the financial crisis.  But the simple fact is the CDS/MBS/etc. leverage that imploded to create the crisis only slid the event left on the calendar.  This crisis, founded upon demographics coming to force reality upon the entitlement mentality of the west was going to come to pass eventually.

Honestly, I think the authors would love to have tea with this woman.  I bet she has quite the mood ring and crystal collection; http://tinyurl.com/d89nqm4


Mon, 08/13/2012 - 17:17 | 2702044 Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

There is nothing new here. We know our nation is in trouble. I see Big Brother Barry on the TV almost every hour.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:41 | 2701685 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I love to read, but I can't predict what mood Mistress de Jour will be in tomorrow evening.

Those who pretend to see five hundred year trends are full of condensed owl shit.

 

See Taleb's Fooled by Randomness if you think the future is predictable.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 06:06 | 2703174 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

I can predict the future. One minute from now it will be one minute later. I will go to sleep tonight. Tomorrow morning, I will go for a dump. And the best - these predictions will cost each of you $1000, I predict you will not pay! See, Now I can grow a long white beard, smoke pot and you can call my Prophet Slack. PS Elvis will return...

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 16:12 | 2701811 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Not trends, cycles. And not 500 year trends, 80-100 year cycles. The only thing predictable is the cycle. Just like Winter and Summer are predictable noone knows how hot or cold they will be.

Try reading the fucking book before you comment.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 16:21 | 2701845 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Try trading an eighty year cycle.  Vague claptrap can always find some way in which it might be true.

See Nostradamus

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:29 | 2701327 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

I would say that Iran having achieved its first nuclear weapon by October 1st this year will be quite 'sparky'. My guess is that things will begin to get a tad out of hand along about then.

Oh, and then there's an Egypt now fully controlled by the Muslin brotherhood on Israel's southern border, and Syria with a death wish and lots of nerve gas on the north. Spark, meet powder.

Shock & Awe? You betcha.

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:27 | 2701626 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

They specifically say that its Anglo-American only.  ME might be a spark but the crisis will be completely internal.

While we're guessing hows this:  Iran publicly tests nuke->Romney Wins election->Lame duck congress allows tax-cuts to expire->Newly sworn-in Romney fails to get several "Harrumphs" from congress->With 30 seconds left on the clock to get any budget passed next FY, everyone completely forgets to fund the SNAP program -> EBT cards stop working next 1st of the month->Wal-Mart stock rolls back its price by 75%->Massive, nationwide chimpouts! ->cities burn -> Racewar ->Now we're in the 4th turning.

Or not.  Point is, its dumb to speculate because by definition the spark / black swan will be the definition of a black swan:  totally out of left field and the reaction to it will be over the top if it had occured in any other 20 year period.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:55 | 2701473 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Syria's only death wish is to avoid having a cabal sponsored central bank.

Did you notice Libya had a central bank weeks after the 'rag-tag rebels' killed Qaddifi for wanting to set up a gold backed dinar to replace the petrodollar?

You watch too much CNBC

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:03 | 2701514 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

CNBC? Snort. Check back in 6 weeks or so sparky.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:37 | 2701390 Vuke
Vuke's picture

Amazing how such a small and insignificant part of the world can infect the rest.  Of course, it's the birthplace of some of the most cultish and tenacious religions.

A pox on them.  The world should just pass them by.

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:15 | 2701224 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

The Natural Order is cyclical, the Laws of Physics demand it. From the birth and death of Solar systems to sub-atomic particles. Day turns to night, Winter to Summer, the old die and the new are born.

Try to explain Winter to someone who (along with their parents) have only lived in late Spring, Summer, and early Fall. They cannot comprehend the cold, the dark, the scarcity of food. They see no necessity to stockpile food and fuel. They spend all their time reassuring themselves that although it is getting chilly, it will be warmer soon and things will grow again.

The Fourth Turning and the Kondratieff Cycle helps you understand the reason people cannot understand the approaching Winter. That lack of understanding assures Winter will come and many will not survive. For those that survive awaits a glorious Spring.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:18 | 2701297 flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>The Fourth Turning and the Kondratieff Cycle...<<<

A good book/primer on the K Cycle minus the psycho-babble is actually more useful.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 12:31 | 2701022 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i like all this stuff, just because it keeps the hollywood entertainment industry going. here's the truth. how would you like a thousand years of NOTHING. Nothing means no new technology, no wars, no new messiahs, no return of the old messiah. the final outcome is no outcome. Man settles into his comfortable repose, there is nothing left to be done. the human life span extends to 200 years, and that changes things. less risky behavior, violence, wars and killing. more organic and healthy lifestyle choices.

like always the new world is a product of a long journey we took to get to this point. John Lennons song Imagine comes closest to descibing this world. a poem by Richard Brautigan, "All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace" also describes this world as a cyber meadow, in which man returns to 'mammal nature'.. (not animal, mammal)

someone asked me, 'what does this global village concept really mean? does it mean we're going back to straw huts?'

i say, yes possibly, we live in straw huts, (perhaps) but there is a GPS to tell us where the lion is, and all our needs, food, and shelter are pretty much taken care of without strife or struggle or famine or disaster, or nationalism, or militarism, or economic systems meant to whip us into a frenzy of activity, in order to match their capabilities to print some abstact currency. 

and rather than fight the dying institutions, people will just walk away. (to paraphrase the apostle Paul)i am the fulfillment of the prophecy Jesus said, that requires some thought, really. 2000 years and people are still waiting around for the big change to happen, when the prophecy was fulfilled long ago.

for those who work in the hollywood entertainment industry, and those whose lives revolve around consuming their product, a thousand year of nothing is a real disappointment. and there are still plenty of us unwilling to go gently into that good night.

 

 

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 12:24 | 2701004 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I guess 80 years is how long it takes to corrupt a system, steal absolutsly everything, and then decide you need to do anything possible to keep it.  Isn't that how old Buffet is?

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 12:17 | 2700992 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Give em a break: 

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

 Niels Bohr 

 

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:45 | 2701698 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Prediction is difficult, especially with regard to the future.

                                          Mark Twain

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:07 | 2701545 NotAMathWhiz
NotAMathWhiz's picture

Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.

Yoda

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:46 | 2701712 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I didn't say half the things I've said.

                          Yogi Berra

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 12:18 | 2700958 malek
malek's picture

Everyone who read the book and thought about it for a longer time, reaches the conclusion that 9/11 was not the catalyst. It maybe was a planted attempt to create a fake catalyst and frame the whole unraveling as a fight against Islam, but that failed as we can clearly see today.

I believe the catalyst will be later determined to be 8/9/2007 when the credit markets froze first, more important than 9/15/2008 when Lehman filed and the size of the crisis became visible to everyone.

We're now waiting for the climax, the moment when the over-indebted and completely insolvent financial system finally completely defaults on its excess obligations, either through official default, hyperinflation or collapse (deflation will not happen on such a scale needed to clean out the excess debts).

An open question is if politicians will start large-scale war to distract, and later place all blame on others. If history is any guide, such a war will likely occur (and no, a war with Iran will not fit that description unless Pakistan becomes heavily involved).

Edit:
To the question why [turnings occur in such fashion], the book answers it if you read attentively:
First the authors propose that the sequence of turnings is fixed, i.e. that the things happening in one turning set the stage for the inevitable next turning to occur.
Second humans in the vast majority don't learn from history, we only learn from what we experienced or observed ourselves. Therefore turning transitions emerge after the previous generation which experienced the last such turning dies out. In conclusion the length of a Strauss-Howe saeculum must be lengthening because of greater longevity (not shortening because of increased speed of technological advance).

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:37 | 2701389 chet
chet's picture

I read the book and also couldn't conclude that 9/11 was the true beginning of the crisis period.  I agree that the financial/economic crisis is the true 4th Turning, which may also include war and other side effects.

I think that 9/11 and our reaction to it sowed the seeds for the lawless environment we're in now.  The justification of spying on our own citizens, torture and the like, was symptomatic of the current "if you are powerful, then it is legal" mindset that now pervades D.C. and NY.

What is worrisome about the book is it predicts that in the middle of the crisis, the people bind together in a common mindset for a common purpose, and we still seem pretty far from that.  Which says to me that are far from even the middle of the crisis period.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 18:11 | 2702185 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

Malek & chet, I agree with all you have said here.

+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood. The credit/financial crises of 2007/2008

+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life. We're not even close to being at this point yet.

+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new. I hope to be around long enough to see this.

+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order. Liberty or death?

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 16:16 | 2701823 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"the people bind together in a common mindset for a common purpose". An end to the Culture Wars and all the other Wars could be a common purpose. Just saying.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 14:37 | 2701315 flattrader
flattrader's picture

The Fourth Turning is the K Cycle put to psycho-babble.  Anyone who has read about the K Cycle know about the debt cycle.

>>>I believe the catalyst will be later determined to be 8/9/2007 when the credit markets froze first, more important than 9/15/2008 when Lehman filed and the size of the crisis became visible to everyone.<<<

Yep.  You got it.

>>>In conclusion the length of a Strauss-Howe saeculum must be lengthening because of greater longevity (not shortening because of increased speed of technological advance).<<<

or the long waves are getting longer due to central bank interventions...committee to save the world, Greenspan Put, repos, coupon passes, Benie and the Inkjets, QE, TWIST etc...all forestalling the inevitable and thus the long wave gets longer.

At one time this was more tied to the farm debt credit cycle, but as agriculture became a smaller part of the overall economy and the FIRE Industry became more prominent, they cycle has lengthened.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:02 | 2701461 malek
malek's picture

 the debt cycle

My opinion is not finalized, but I currently tend to believe that a moral/ethic cycle is the main undercurrent of all those tendencies.

All other models, such as Turnings, Kondratieff cycle, Martin Armstrong's public and private phases, are derived from the moral/ethic cycle.

getting longer due to central bank interventions

That looks to me as another way of making technological advance responsible for changes to saeculum length.

In my point of view that doesn't hold water as Strauss/Howe state that turnings cannot be easily shortened or lengthened by anything less than the most massive interventions.
Also the previuous saeculums showed no variations caused by the Industrial revolution.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:35 | 2701657 flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>getting longer due to central bank interventions

That looks to me as another way of making technological advance responsible for changes to saeculum length.<<<

Agreed only if you mean that Geezer Greenspan lived long enough to stay on the job at the FED long enough to totally screw shit up.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:18 | 2701591 Andy_Jackson_Jihad
Andy_Jackson_Jihad's picture

Thank you!  That's an excelently concise integration of all those ideas that I struggled to connect when I started reading Martin (right before his release from the klink).  The only other person I know in real life that knew of Martin drew parallels to the bible with respect to cycles.  Though I didn't give them much thought at the time, you've made me curious about if there aren't some good lessons in there.  Appart from figuring which horse of the apacolypse JPM represents that is.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 11:47 | 2700923 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Yeah, I read it a couple of years ago and was very interested at the time. Then I started wondering, why? There are no clear cut reasons why. Can it possibly be the way human beings are programmed or is there an external force? What about other countries? Is this strictly a phenomenon of the US or developed countries or is it universal? What about small tribes of people?

The answer to the question "why?" is less obvious than the observation... and yes, they makes guesses, but they are only guesses as to why?

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 16:28 | 2701870 css1971
css1971's picture

Debt.

I've seen Fourier transforms of long term markets which show power peaks round about periods of (among others) 50 years so there appears to be a cycle there. It's most likely credit and debt based. i.e. the bankers.

http://escholarship.org/uc/item/9jv108xp.pdf

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 12:13 | 2700987 Jake88
Jake88's picture

It's generationally driven

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 11:03 | 2700825 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Yeah, OK, right.  What's the trade?

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:57 | 2701757 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Mortgage your house, car, family and put it all in paper.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 15:39 | 2701680 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Store an electrical generating system like a gas driven generator or solar-powered battery chargers or a wind system generator in a Faraday Cage. Include a ham or shortwave transceiver and several ol' CB radios. Be a one-eyed man in the land of the blind.

Savvy folks who can make gas engine powered bicycles will be lesser kings. Knowing how to can and dry foods when there is no refrigeration will be a successful skill to have. Imagine the world before internal combustion and electricity and that's the world after EMP, unless you have "sandboxed" critical switches, relays and electronics along with your generators.

Having an old vacuum tube radio system (which are naturally hardened against EMP) will keep you in touch with the world outside the EMP dead zone. If you have working radio communications, you will be a very valuable operator as communications and control go together. TPTB will understand that. They may just seize your stuff, so you need to work through that scenario. Somebody needs to maintain those generators and batteries, etc.

Surviving the initial shock and rapid loss of food stuffs, transport, and communication, OMG! will be major no-picnics. Having a small supply of chlorine bleach to be able to purify water, along with purification systems will keep you healthy. Muni water supplies will fail quickly without long term power and backups to keeps pumps running to maintain water pressure. Rain barrels, anyone? You could use them now to water gardens of veggies, etc.

A great book for all EMP victims : Square Foot Gardening.

Doubtless there will be heroic efforts to reestablish electrical power but the custom switches used in big generating plants are two years away for replacements, even under ideal manufacturing conditions, etc. It is one small chore to bring a downed grid back up and it is an unsustainable chore to try and completely replace and rebuild one during an uncivil collapse.

Always, your best trade position is increasing your independent and your local community's sustainable survival skills.

How many days supply of food do you have in the house today? How many heirloom vegetable and grain seeds do you have set aside in a cool, dry, dark, rodent-proof can? With no power, there won't any lights, elevators or furnaces operating. Ready for that?

The largest new demand will be for grief counselors and grave diggers.

 

 

 

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 13:17 | 2701116 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

Figure out how to think about the future and make decisions for yourself.    Or vote for BHO -- he promises to take care of you -- part of the spoon-fed society everyone seems to crave.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:47 | 2700801 curbyourrisk
curbyourrisk's picture

The book might have been a tough read, but it was WELL WORTH THE TIME.

 

Yes it is repetitive, but that is what made it easier to understand.  I hate having to re-read chapters that are full of information.  In this book, you get just enough re-read by continuing your read to understand EVERYTHING by the end.

 

YES....it is scary how corect this book was.....not because of what it said would happen....BUT what it still thinks WILL happen.

 

Two thumbs up....  a true eye opener.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 16:22 | 2701847 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I too found the book somewhat repetitive and some aspects of it very dated. 

At some points I felt like I was reading Dickens and the author was being paid by the word..

Enjoyed the concepts, logic behind and the research to support them, but a poor writer.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:34 | 2700754 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Patterns" by DEVO:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kn1VLE7EpD0

 

"Patterns all around you
patterns everywhere
patterns of behavior
sometimes seem unfair
can you recognize the patterns that you find?

Patterns unfamiliar
patterns lead you through (to)
patterns of discovery
tracing out the clues
can you recognize the patterns that you find?
stuck in your mind

In this land where stability is hard to find
you can rearrange the patterns so unkind
don't bother asking why a pattern never cries
old patterns never die they just go on and on

Patterns multiplying
re-direct our view
endless variations
make it all seem new."

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:31 | 2700751 EcoJoker
EcoJoker's picture

It's a terrible read BTW and I couldn't finish it.  But I have no patience for it.   It's points are excellent though,   You can read the first 2 chapters and the last one and get the whole book.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:28 | 2700743 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

The authors have repeatedly claimed that the 9/11 attacks are NOT the catalyst.

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:48 | 2700778 nuggetstoosmall
nuggetstoosmall's picture

Try this for a cataylist WWIII. Opening in the middle east with not a nuclear strike but an emp. Then we are hit with retalitory strikes, but not enough to take out the whole system only around the edges. Which allows for movement of people into the FEMA camps, and remaking of our society. Read One Second Later. The talking heads want to reduce our foot print, with a proper emp you could take out 10-70% of America. Talk about a false flag action. Hmmm?

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 09:31 | 2700609 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

"The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II."

 

Along those lines, here's something to consider:

 

Full Spectrum Operations in the Homeland: A “Vision” of the Future

 

Also see:

 

EDITORIAL: The Civil War of 2016

 

 

"U.S. military officers are told to plan to fight Americans"
Tue, 08/14/2012 - 03:20 | 2703116 i-dog
i-dog's picture

Be warned: the Washington Times is a disinformation-propaganda outlet for the right wing of the neocons (the Council for National Policy - CNP).

It is, however, useful for gauging the right wing agenda. For example, one can glean from recent articles that the religious right is not keen on Romney and/or Ryan, yet they [now] have no alternative in the running. They were hanging their hats on Santorum, until he flamed out.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 06:05 | 2703173 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

I know that. Just was putting it out there for those who might not have caught it. The links within that editorial(and the other link) I thought might be useful for those with their ear to the ground...if you get my drift.

 

This one specifically:

http://www.tradoc.army.mil/tpubs/pams/tp525-3-1.pdf

 

I view/read many and varied sources, doesn't mean I'm on board with any or all of them. Though something useful can usually be gleaned from just about anywhere

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 08:51 | 2703362 i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"I know that."

Good to hear.

I just like to point out when somebody is using Alex Jones' favourite source of links and guests ... just so everybody knows....

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 09:28 | 2700601 DOT
DOT's picture

The "Heroes" were sent to the camps* for de-education. No hope there.

 

 

*Colleges

Mon, 08/13/2012 - 10:38 | 2700769 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

They also went heavily into debt for the privilege.

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