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The Fourth Turning - Finally
After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.
I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.
Strauss and Howe write:
Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:
+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;
+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;
+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;
+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):
The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:
+ The American High (1946-1964);
+ The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);
+ The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);
+ The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)
If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:
+ The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);
+ The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);
+ The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);
+ The Artist archetype is being born now
I'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.
Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!
I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:
+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood
+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order
Here again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:
Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:
+ A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.
+ An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.
As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically - "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):
Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
+ Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
+ Social distress....
+ Cultural distress......
+ Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos
+ Ecological distress....
+ Political distress....
+ Military distress.......
This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.
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In other words, Japan has been in a "fourth turning" for 20+ years. Lovely.
most posters so far couldn't write the cover of a cereal box let alone a foward thinking book like this; agree or disagree with its principles.....
jb
Actually, their earlier book "Generations" is even better, and I totally recommend it. They chickened out on a lot of stuff in this one. Anyway, this comes down to the same thing as the Kondratieff Wave theory, and we are entering Kondratieff Winter, when all this debt gets deflated and defaulted away.
Agree. It came several years earlier with more emphasis on the third turning. (natural I guess)It's been helpful to me in understaning long term trends. Can't day trade off it though. Lot's of posters here seem to have investment time horizons the length of a flees life.
i read the book years ago. it was one of the few books that have utterly opened my eyes to a new (old?) reality of the repeating patterns of time. it helped me understand the past better, and opened my mind to the notion that history is more circular than linear. kinda gave a context to people, and why they think and act the way they do. i highly recommend the book.
Eastern philosophy/religion accepts that existence is cyclical.
http://www.mcremo.com/vedic.htm
more bullshit doomsday rehtoric..werent we going to run out of food and water in the 70's..how about posting something useful that we can trade off of..
no, that was africa
>>>how about posting something useful that we can trade off of..<<<
Here's a tip...Long dramamine for the white knuckled ride to the bottom of the long wave trough...and puke bags...don't forget the puke bags...
You haven't read the disclaimer I see:
"Zero Hedge is a financial news and information site, not an investment advisor. Making investment decisions based on information published on Zero Hedge, or any internet site for that matter, is more than unwise, it is folly."
Don't be a simpleton. Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat its failures...
the guys that junked you are pissed that they are sitting on a worthless piles of PMs,lead,guns(which at least a gun is hard when they fondle it) and bags of rice. I remember sitting in grade school in the 70s and listening to the propaganda about how we were entering a new "Ice Age".
considering your online name, you should appreciate the fine lines between, fact, fiction, and how far the TPTB spin both to try and shape the outcomes of events. Skorzeny did not avoid prison by not being ready for the future.
doom sayers are always wrong, right up to the minute they turn out to be right. Troy, Athens, Rome, Constantinople
So, after eight decades of thwarting justice and ripping off the vulnerable, NOW we subscribe to quack-bullshit in some book pushing it as the written gospel?!
It seems incorporated thieves have lost their collective sanity - or portended that which never was.
Bankers fucked America. That is the only fact the disinfranchised will ever need.
It's clear from the famous 9-11 airline puts that somebodies were aware before hand. How much before hand? pre-1997? When did PNAC come out? When was PNAC hatched?
So many questions.
+1
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Project_for_the_New_American_Century
Nice long list of hypocritical neo-cons.
9/11 happened to be the first 100-mile visibility day after everything was in place. Any 3-day forecast would have predicted the weather. They certainly weren't going to try something like that in low ceilings or visibility.
My research (best guess only) is that planning for 9-11 began in 1994/5. Though it could have been much earlier, it was certainly no later.
Whether the actual "9-11" date was planned that far in advance is uncertain. As with all government "projects" of that size, it starts out as a single exercise with a single critical objective then, as more heads are brought into the "need to know" loop, additional pet projects are piggy-backed onto it ... then trimmed back again to a new core set of objectives.
interesting. remember how I was writing that all prices and graphs have a qualitative difference before/after 1994/5? I have to admit I don't remember any special event, then... good description how gov projects function, btw
Yep, like all lies, and all databases, they inevitably increase in size with time (... much like 'watch-lists', in that respect).
The only way to stop the enlargement of lies, databases and Govt plans, and also legislation and laws, is to stop using them.
9/ll provided the excuse to dissemble the Constitution and the Rule of Law. Without both, there is really no America, Land of the Free and Home of the Brave. But the spark was really initiated in 1913 at Jekyl Island; after smoldering for almost 90 years, it became a conflagration courtesy of nano-thermite explosions.
The way this author waxes on, you might have to consider if the book is the work of the Elites and a little self fulfilling? 9/11 wasn't a surprise to the Elites.
Fourth turning my ass. Perhaps THIS author needs a few more years under his belt, to not be taken in by the fascists. There is nothing compelling about a future of debt slavery.
The concept of a "Fourth Turning" attempts to be self-fulfilling. That is it's message. However, you can deny the inevitable- especially when it isn't inevitable at all.
Honestly, yours wasn't up when I started posting my contribution to the serend-ipity.
I think Banzai best captures the cyclical aspect of these events - namely that everyone with a connection to the event dies and the collective memory dies with it because the proles don't write the history.
True.
They never tell you what or when to sell/buy
Sure "They" do. CNBS constantly tells you what to buy. But, come to think of it I don't think they are allowed to ever use the word sell.
I enjoyed the article and applaud the effort in putting the Fourth Turning into a current context; I do feel however that the specifics of the spark are incorrect. As a ZH lurker I understand the dangers of posting but revel that these words might appear just below those of WB7 (may he live forever). Strauss and Howe were asked if 9-11 was the spark and they have stated no on that one, rather the financial crisis of 2008 being the genesis is what we are about to face. Certainly 9-11 pushed the emotional mood and political focus towards a new direction but wasn't "the" spark but rather extra tinder as it were. Brighter minds than mine have taken on these topics at length at http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/
Very good points, vonStrackovich thanks for the link to the 4T forum -- will go there.
The turning point in the US happened Nov 22 1963, when the MI/Bankster complex completed the coup feared by Eisenhower. Every Congress and President since that time has been stooges for the real behind the scenes powers. Despite setbacks in the Vietnam War and consequent monetary inflation, the empire has expanded globally and the national security state insinuated into every corner of our lifes and consciousness. So far it has been a straight line event and the end will be digital as well.. a sudden and total collapse.
And what I say unto you, I say unto all, Watch
@Joyful. That is some powerful stuff man. It doesn't look good either.
The most important lesson of this book is something big and bad usually emerges when the memory of the last big and bad event fades from collective memory, typically because those who experienced it have died off.
Think WW II as the last make or break crisis faced by the US.
It is also instructive to analyze leadership generationally. We have seen what a disaster the Baby Boomers have been. Don't expect much change until the Millenials take the wheel.
I'll go 50/50 on this one.
Granted the boomers put chimps in the Shuttle instead of astronauts, but the system has gotten too large and complex to function. It grew too large when food was plentiful and there was little competition. Now, it expends more energy than its food can produce.
The US FED GOV as we know it today, is a last leg dinosaur. An evolutionary dead end.
The up and coming nimble small mammals will eventually win out.
We have seen what a disaster the Baby Boomers have been. Don't expect much change until the Millenials take the wheel.
:this
When a generation (Baby Boomers) are blames everyone but themselves.........they are usually the reason why things are in the shitter.
The "old way" of thinking is just not going to cut it anymore, and people are more altruistic than given credit. That is what our "leaders" and "corporate plantation owners" don't understand.
Altruism is the problem. It is a negation of self; the abandonment of one's own values for those of others. That's how the powers that be pull the wool over people's eyes for so long. They've got folks convinced that denigrating the poor at home and bombing the poor overseas is an act of charity. Wake up and smell the coffee. This has been a message from Nomad Control Sector 1.
It is not a negation of the self as commonly practiced. It is more a masturbation of self. Lets give a little to feel good for a few moments. Negation of the self would mean giving with no regard for one's self. Who does that?
No one, really, but look at the myriad of calls for selflessness and the credit for those who have achieved great things being ascribed to selflessness rather than to individual will.
I don't believe that only one generation has cornered the markets on Psychopaths an Sociopaths. I believe that the "Boomer" Psychopaths and Sociopaths are merely "standing on the shoulders" of the previous generation(s) Psychopaths and Sociopaths to achieve the levels of power they have today. Do you really think that the trend is going to abruptly change and create a "pure" generation?
Excellent post Loose Tools.
It seems the millineals believe that human nature of their generation is superior to human nature in any other, especially boomer, generation.
Not!
Things they do look awful c-c-cold. I hope I die before I get old.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBMos92heq0
As if the millenials could make a difference. When will the boomer attacks stop? We are all driven like cattle on the range. It matters not your species, breed or ability.
WB7, go back to doing what you do best, caricature and satire.
I guess the 13th generation (the old Gen X) is along for the ride.
The more pessimistic you are and the lower your expectations, the easier it is for the Millenials to grow into their role.
"Don't expect much change until the Millenials take the wheel."
If we have to wait that long then we're f*ck'd....
Hate to say it but that's the point of the fourth turning. We're lucky if we're 25% of the way through it and it's going to get a lot worse before it get's better. Read the history of US generations and you also learn that the "baby boomers" will hold on to power to the bitter end. Think Cotten Mather old.
according the theory the Millennials/Heroes are the troops of the Nomads, same as Joshua (Nomad, born in the desert) led his Heroes against Jericho - but only after Moses (Prophet) died on the Mount overlooking the Promised Land but forbidden to enter it.
I hope that the younger generations can come through - they have been raised in a world of moral relativism and are going to have to pull the "right" solution from withen. There are too many who have gotten an award for just showing up. When I played T-ball, not even the best team got an award, they just got bragging rights. Now they all get an award and no score is kept. Reality is typically a shit sandwich so there is no reward for anything - the reward is you get to keep your job. I believe the nomads who are not in prison are quite accustomed to this. The young bucks who need that reward are going to have to pull the motivation from inside (more difficult than simply being conditioned).
The nomads are not off the plate yet, but the time is coming to step up or get out of the way. A word to the wise, if you are elderly, get ready to once again rely on yourself. Here is where it has become extremely cruel, but you see-it does not matter.
What can we do? I don't know. What I do is try and wake people up one at a time to the federal reserve and our politicians not representing us - in addition, give to the poor. Not the guy on the street corner, to the poor house that feeds these guys in the hopes that someone/some kid can be saved from a life of poverty.
This nomad is happy to know that there's a million Ron Paul kids out there....somewhere.
For two centuries now, since departing from their eastern European lairs to spread across continents, a tiny but uber-malevolent sect has plotted the demise of the European peeples and their once proud civilization...
these khazarian kooks, who nourishing in their hearts, instead of love for life and for humanity, a smouldering hate and vengeful envy, have made their plans for every contingency, and developed methods of destruction and desecretation for every type and chararcter of the haplogroups in their sites...they now control every aspect of the financial and social continuum, including the flow of information.
There is indeed a turning...a turning of our ancestors in their graves, vainly trying to warn us that we stand in peril of losing everything that they fought and sacrificed for on our behalves...from lethargy, material indulgence, and a sullen refusal to face the facts and deal with their implications. A mass extinction event of the Europoid bloodline has been long planned, and is now close to execution. While masters of the false hope narrative squawk on here endlessly about 'financial holocausts' and blaming banksters, the real, murderous holocausts[not holohoax!]that have occurred as warmups to the main event(Ukrania, Armenia, the decimation of the christian populations of the middle east occurring now)can go unremarked as signals for what is planned for the remainder of us.
The resistance to this terror is pitiably thin. But as JRR Tolkien masterfully prophesized, if the few with the will to fight on cannot count upon the many to join them, perhaps it will be the legions of our own dead who will join us on the battleground, ready at last to settle accounts with the muderous usurpers of our futures and our heritage.
97% are not even aware of the folks shaping their future, The resistance to this terror is pitiably thin. "The news, when it happens, where it happens, even if there isn't any, even if we have to make it happen".