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The Fourth Turning - Finally
After many instances of prodding from readers, I finally bought and read The Fourth Turning, and I'm sorry that I waited so long. It was a superb read, and it puts into words (340 pages of words, in fact) the general feeling I've had for so long that something big and bad is happening all around us.
I want to emphasize at the outset that this isn't some doom 'n' gloom book that came off the presses after all the calamities we've seen over the past decade. It is, in fact, a fifteen-year old book, and I imagine much of it was written around 1995 or so, during the feel-good Clinton years. When the book came out in 1997, the authors made clear that they were currently in the Third Turning, and that the Fourth Turning - the final quarter of a cycle that they postulate recurs throughout modern human history - was coming around 2005 or so.
Strauss and Howe write:
Over the past five centuries, Anglo-American society has entered a new era - a turning - every two decades or so....Together the four turnings of the saeculum comprise history's seasonal rhythm of growth, naturation, entropy, and destruction:
+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;
+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;
+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;
+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
As they anticipated the next "Turning", they referenced its start point around 2005, in the middle of the "Oh-Oh" decade (which I've now heard referred to as the "Naughts"):
The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millenium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood...Political and economic trust will implode...severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire...the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.
I would suggest, and I'm sure many would agree, that the attacks of 9/11 were the "sudden spark". Early in the book, the authors describe how there have, through human history, been three general ideas about the path of time in our lives - chaotic, cyclical, linear. The entire basis of the book is that the cyclical perception of the world is the accurate one, and the human species continues to move its way through this quartet of cycles, totalling about the length of a human life, called a Saeculum. We are presently in The Millennial Saeculum, which is broken down into these four parts:
+ The American High (1946-1964);
+ The Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984);
+ The Culture Wars (1984-2005?);
+ The Millennial Crisis (which, when the book was published, was yet to arrive)
If you consider the four quarters of a Saeculum to the time "axis" of the grid, the other is made of the human archetypes, whose character depends on their generation as well as what portion of the Saeculum is currently running. The present archetypes are described as follows:
+ The Boom Generation (Prophet archetype, born 1943-1960);
+ The 13th Generation (Nomad archetype, born 1961-1981);
+ The Millennial Generation (Hero archetype, born 1982-?);
+ The Artist archetype is being born now
I'm a member of what they dub the 13th Generation, so-called simply because it is the 13th generation of Americans that they track.
Many of the predictions about the near-future that were offered are eerily accurate, whereas others are embarassingly wrong, such as the supposition that, to celebrate the year 2000, "Others will board a chartered Concorde just after midnight and zoom back through time from the third millennium to the second." Of course, I can't fault the authors for not anticipating the fiery end of the Concorde fleet!
I am, of course, most interested in the Crisis era, since that is supposedly what we're in the midst of living; the authors declare the Crisis can be constructed with this morphology:
+ A Crisis era begins with a catalyst - a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood
+ Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy - a new counter-entropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
+ The regenerated society propels toward a climax - a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
+ The climax culminates in a resolution - a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order
Here again, I would think most would agree the 9/11 attacks would serve the definition of "catalyst" quite well. As the book draws to a close, it delves into greater detail about what could be forthcoming from the perspective of someone writing in 1997. I've emphasized a few items in bold:
Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning.....a spark will ignite a new mood...In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party......the following circa-2005 scenarios might seem plausible:
+ A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons......Congress declares war.....Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes.
+ An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The President and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown.....Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall Street panics.
As superb as these projections were, the authors hasten to add - ironically - "It's highly unlikely that any one of these scenarios will actually happen." On the contrary, these guesses about the future (which, let's face it, required the authors to really go out on a limb) were excellent. They continue (although I am using ellipses to replace large chunks of text, since I'm not in the mood to re-type an entire book):
Time will pass, perhaps another decade, before the surging mood propels America to the Fourth Turning's grave moment of opportunity and danger: the climax of the Crisis.....the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:
+ Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
+ Social distress....
+ Cultural distress......
+ Technology distress, with cryptoanarchy, high-tech oligarchy, and biogenetic chaos
+ Ecological distress....
+ Political distress....
+ Military distress.......
This is a thoughtful, well-articulated, and engrossing book. As with any text that makes broad sociological assertions and generalizations, the authors have opened themselves up to plenty of criticism about the plausibility of their prophecy. Taken as a whole, I think this book provide an enlightening blueprint of both the present and the near-future. I strongly recommend it.
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Re The resistance to this terror is pitiably thin
"... the fewer the men, the greater share of honour ... ... ...
...he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us".
- Henry V, William Shakespeare
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne’er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs’d they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin’s day.
This resonates in my soul...
I got the clap serving my country.
<applause>One good clap deserves another.</applause>
This book is written by a dirty wizard living in a sea cave. Making bold predictions that human beings will be cyclical in their chaos and stability is not hard. We will never follow a simple linear path, a framework like this will appear to connect dots in a magical way but in context history could be charted like a stock. Ups and downs.
Ever heard of a fractal you dimwit? Start there...
Now, now; Prospero was busy - as was Gandalf.
"Dirty wizard living in a sea cave" sounds more like Ben Bernanke.
I like the theory. I'm waiting for the US Nomad generation to get politically active. According to the theory, the Nomad's most distinguishing sentiment is personal honor - so I feel (as europeans we are not supposed to be synchronized to this AngloSphere thing) very connected to this.
And this could mean the end of the typically Prophet Culture Wars. Which could mean that the US public finally stops getting in it's own way.
Add to this the tendency of the younger Hero generation's to request and to stick to one set of principles (shaped by the Nomad's thirst for honor), and the way out is mostly clear. I'm only clueless what shape it could have.
Speaking as a "Nomad," we are not there yet. I can feel something coming, but the poles are not quite aligned. Unfortunately, the trigger for mass unification may be catastrophic, as we are currently hypnotized and sedated. As we are supposed to be.
in the context of the book, the generation cut between Prophet/Nomad/Hero/Silent is in the way they were raised.
It points at parenting styles.
The Prophets are raised by parents that nurture and protect them while giving them freedom of expression. The Nomads are raised by parents that try to make them as independent and selfsufficient as possible (yes, less parenting). The kids with the key to their homes around the neck are kids raised to be Nomads. On the other end of the spectrum you have the kids that are hyperprotected in body and mind, the future Silent generation. Note the "helicopter parents" phenomenon.
Just to say that it's conceivable - in the context of the book - to be a "Silent" in the midst of a generation of "Prophets", though the "tenor" of the generation is made by the majority.
---------------------
Since the thread is not "hot" anymore, some fun: STAR WARS saga in the context of the book
The first generation is Prophet: Darth Vader's
The third generation is Hero: Princess Leia, Luke Skywalker's
The generation in between is Nomad: Han Solo's.
Note that the Nomad Han Solo is in theory utterly disgusted by both sides of the war and has the fierce independence of the "I'll do it my way" generation. He is only dragged in the conflict out of love for a generation of Heros that want the war to end. One way or the other. Victory or death.
This ties with the picture of Joshua leading an army of Heroes that are sick of wandering in the desert.
Because the Hero Generation requests one set of rules. This is in a way the most dangerouos generation because they don't care what societal rules are valid, as long as everybody sticks to them. This is in part horrifying for the Nomads, who are used to rely on and judge for themselves, and even more horrifying for the Prophets, who like to crusade in twenty different directions, mostly against each other after they are done with the previous Hero generation - like how the GI "greatest generation".
Real hunger is a terrific motivator...
"Unfortunately, the trigger for mass unification may be catastrophic, as we are currently hypnotized and sedated."
Writers, poets, philosophers, etc, continue to seek exotic causes for past revolutions. Most of them were caused by hungry people.
First, we eat the banksters.
let me guess: Prophet? ;-)
Musician. For profit.
They got it backwards, tying individualism to downfall, institutions to upbeat eras. Overall sounds like a lot of mooga booga booga.
Speaking as a libertarian I think they have it right. What matters is the STRENGTH of institutions. Our current institutions have no strength because of the cultural fights brought on by the "baby boom" generation. They can't agree on anything so nothing gets done. The institutions reformed by the nomads and hero generations may have a concensus requiring less goverment and more responsibility to recieve any benefits granted. Broadly speaking, think the GI bill after WW2 as a payment for services rendered to the country as opposed to mindless "entitlements" to people because they breath and take up space.
>>>Our current institutions have no strength because of the cultural fights brought on by the "baby boom" generation.<<<
You think the baby boom generation invented the culture wars...over birth control, abortion, voting rights, right to organize???
BWAHAHA!!!
Read some history kid. Some of these battles go back to before the Civil War.
You're hysterical...
Thanks, you saved me the trouble of reading it.
Individualism FTW!
Oh, and I'll leave my shameless plug for comments - - check out SocialTrade - my new site for sharing charts and ideas. It's free 'n' spiffy.
Knight, read something on K/Long Waves and then get back with us.
We've had to endure comment from every idiot blogger including Charles Hugh Smith on this psycho-babble nonsense.
It's really the The Fourth Wretching.
You're a day late and dollar short with your review.
I'm shameless as well in the plug department so don't feel bad.
Why the 1% are the most capable of saving humanity! Hot off the presses:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/blog/2012/08/13/sexual-dimorphism-powerstructures-and-environmental-consequences-of-human-behaviors/
Lloyd Blankfein:
"The bugs made me do it."
The authors missed the real 'event', which was plainly in view.
Nixon closing the gold window in 1971 was the beginning of the ramp up in national debt, private sector debt... in addition, that time frame saw the beginning of off shoring US manufacturing jobs.
Imo... in overall and long term impact these were much bigger events than 9-11. Although 9-11 was a disaster if it had been treated as a crime against humanity and the perps had been hunted down, tried, and punished, the US would not have been propelled into all the budget busting military conflicts that have followed.
Iows, I believe the book is a bunch of hooey... and my crystal ball agrees.
Definitey hooey. Just look at the author's summary:
+ The First Turning is a High; an upbeat era of strengthening instutitions and weakening individualism;
When did the strengthening institutions and weakening individualism stop?
+ The Second Turning is an Awakening, a passionate era of spirtual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime;
When did this happen? Civic order under attack? Spiritual upheaval -- we've been more and more morally bankrupt for 60 years.
+ The Third Turning is an Unraveling, a downcast era of strrengtening individualism and weakening institutions;
Huh? Strengthening individualism? What a fucking joke.
+ The Fourth Turning is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
Since 2 and 3 never happened, any crisis would be a random event, not some spooky psydo-religious cycle.
The book is a massive fail.
The population makes the society.
I think the gentleman that proposed that changes in the levels of testosterone in society over time profoundly affects the type of society is correct. A successful society, built by the efforts of innovative minds, will allow those most driven to reproduce, high testosterone individuals, to out breed those with normal levels, including those who created the successful society. Too high of testosterone levels speeds up physical growth at the expense of brain growth, foreshortening the development of higher brain functions.
With time, ones with lower intelligence and cerebral control will negate the positive effects of those types that created the successful society.
The US is a good example of this.
Yes,
Stupid people breed more than smarter people who factor in social and financial costs to their reproductive decisions that they expect to be responsible for.
Subsidize stupid and you will get more of it.
A govt. program that works.
Not that I care much for Nixon, but his closing of the gold window was the direct result of LBJ's War and Guns and Butter policy.
I suggest the "real event" was JFK's demise in Dallas in Nov. 1963 and that that coup was the catalyst for the shit sandwich we are eating now.
Johnson and Nixon were, like our current Black Pinocchio, puppets. JFK, whether you liked him and his policies or not, was the last Commander in Chief the country had. The Oligarchy could not co-exist with him.
Despite all that, and yes I've seen his outing the NWO (which was a good thing he did), let's just remember as well that his decision-making process very-nearly, almost, but not quite wiped-out modern human civilisation on planet Earth. I have a very hard time thinking of him as other than a vein-glorious ego-centric cheating fuckhead, who was so unforgivably stupid that he literally played Russian-Roulette with about 13,000 combined hydrogen bombs in the respective arsenals of the day.
He very nearly allowed General Curtis Lemay to attack the Soviet Union with a pre-emptive thermonuclear attack that would have made all the fatalities and butchery of WWI and WWII combined, fade into insignificance. In comparison, he would have made both Hitler and Stalin look like pikers.
That's the man Kennedy also was.
We may only be alive today reading these zh pages because his splattered brains ended up on a Dallas thoroughfare instead.
Right?
You don't know shit from history.
I go you one further. Despite all his womenizing and personal faults, JFK was really the last hope, the last turning point for the U.S. Everything that has happened since November 22, 1963, is just going through the motions aboard the U.S.S. Titanic with bad actors and even worse teleprompter-readers. JFK was the last American President.
Right on, FS.
This is the deepest thought of the last decade nobody gets;
The war against a Military Tactic(Terrorism) used by The Base(in Arabic Al-Qaeda) is idiotic. The base doesn't even have any tanks or boats.
Okay,
War Against Terrorists.
Happy now?
Not as sound-bitey though, so it fails.
Semantics are not revelations.
Every 10 years?! Yawn
Wake me for the next "First Turning."
This book is a tedious, repetetive, boring read!
Like the Black Swan, this book could be summarized in 1 chapter!
I'll recommend Jackie Collins - she's terrifically popular.